UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath

[Senex]

That's probably a more sensible way of putting it since the election was more of a Tory loss than Labour win. But regardless I think it's still telling that Labour can have a lower share of the vote with a landslide than it did in 2017 while falling 74 seats short of a majority.

it has to be a curious system that gives Labour near-absolute power for five years (as long as they can keep some party discipline) on a third of the votes of those who chose to vote (three-fifths of the electorate) or just one-fifth of those entitled to vote.

 

[DarloRich]

aren't 98 Green or Lib Dem voters who are wondering if maybe they should have held their nose and voted Labour...

I wonder if a few now think that rofls vote for the greens wasn't that smart ......

That being said it's quite clear that tactical voting in general has been utterly devastating for the Tories.

Agreed. In the NE the swing to Reform is a concern but has restored the red wall APART FROM my mum's seat that has returned a whopper Tory! FFS.

 

[Sorcerer]

it has to be a curious system that gives Labour near-absolute power for five years (as long as they can keep some party discipline) on a third of the votes of those who chose to vote (three-fifths of the electorate) or just one-fifth of those entitled to vote.

With any luck, Keir Starmer will realise this was something of an anomaly since it's usually the Conservatives who benefit from this kind of skewed system, especially since his majority, while large, is also somewhat shallow in terms of support. This could both enable and encourage discussions relating to electoral reform, but understandably Labour's priorities lie elsewhere right now. Even for me electoral reform wasn't a priority in this election.

 

[Thirteen]

I wonder who will put their name forward for the Deputy Speaker roles since they are now available. There is a small chance Lindsay Hoyle doesn't get reelected as Speaker but that seems unlikely. I think Jeremy Hunt might put his hat in the ring, he's a senior MP and in a way that would be a good role for him to transition to. Not sure who on the Labour side will put their name forward.

 

[Gloster]

I wonder who will put their name forward for the Deputy Speaker roles since they are now available. There is a small chance Lindsay Hoyle doesn't get reelected as Speaker but that seems unlikely. I think Jeremy Hunt might put his hat in the ring, he's a senior MP and in a way that would be a good role for him to transition to. Not sure who on the Labour side will put their name forward.

The Speaker can’t be removed from their position as Speaker, although they can be removed from the House in the same way as any other MP and a motion of No Confidence would make things difficult for them. Anyway, why on earth would Labour want to?

 

[JamesT]

I wonder who will put their name forward for the Deputy Speaker roles since they are now available. There is a small chance Lindsay Hoyle doesn't get reelected as Speaker but that seems unlikely. I think Jeremy Hunt might put his hat in the ring, he's a senior MP and in a way that would be a good role for him to transition to. Not sure who on the Labour side will put their name forward.

I would expect Jeremy Hunt to be involved with the shadow cabinet, if not challenging for the leadership. 57 feels a little young to be thinking about winding down which (Deputy) Speaker kinda is.
Roger Gale has already done the role as cover for Eleanor Laing, so would seem a likely candidate.

 

[johnnychips]

This may well be the best Ministerial appointment of the new government, James Timpson as Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation. Given his role in getting former prisoners rehabilitated through employment, it is a strong statement about taking prison reform seriously:

x.com

x.com

Given his handle https://x.com/JamesTCobbler, is he related to the heel replacing/key-cutting shops?

 

[Thirteen]

I would expect Jeremy Hunt to be involved with the shadow cabinet, if not challenging for the leadership. 57 feels a little young to be thinking about winding down which (Deputy) Speaker kinda is.
Roger Gale has already done the role as cover for Eleanor Laing, so would seem a likely candidate.

Having seen some clips on him in action, he'd be pretty decent and has the experience.

Chris Bryant has put his hat in the ring last time but I suspect his cancer treatment means he wouldn't be able to commit.

 

[Gloster]

Given his handle https://x.com/JamesTCobbler, is he related to the heel replacing/key-cutting shops?

He father owns the chain and he runs it. His brother was a Conservative MP until the election; he wasn’t defeated as he stood down.

 

[Bayum]

it has to be a curious system that gives Labour near-absolute power for five years (as long as they can keep some party discipline) on a third of the votes of those who chose to vote (three-fifths of the electorate) or just one-fifth of those entitled to vote.

1/3 of the votes or not, democracy has spoken. Until the system changes, this is what we have to show for it. The remaining 2/3 of those eligible to vote has the opportunity and they cost not to engage. That’s their right to do so.

 

[johnnychips]

He father owns the chain and he runs it. His brother was a Conservative MP until the election; he wasn’t defeated as he stood down.

Thank you for your prompt and interesting reply.

 

[Thirteen]

He father owns the chain and he runs it. His brother was a Conservative MP until the election; he wasn’t defeated as he stood down.

He came across really well in a recent interview, I wonder if he does well in his current role, we might see him moved to DWP.

 

[Mojo]

A point that I don’t think has been mentioned is that Reform have an alliance with the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). As TUV took one seat, that puts the grouping on six seats.

l’m not holding this against you as it’s a busy thread but l did mention this in post #255 (link: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...-results-aftermath.270355/page-9#post-6838965).

 

[ainsworth74]

I know what you mean, but they may have made an honest evaluation that they were worried she would be a challenging and counter-productive MP. It's potentially worth them losing the seat and having IDS as part of a small opposition, rather than have a loose cannon firing at them from their own backbenches.

Yeah that's fair and I can't really argue against it. I don't have all the inside knowledge that Labour HQ of course had about party management and whatnot. But sitting outside it just feels like a bit a like shooting yourself in the foot.

Apart from anything else, maybe the Tories will elect IDS as leader again. That would be a laugh

That's certainly very true!

it has to be a curious system that gives Labour near-absolute power for five years (as long as they can keep some party discipline) on a third of the votes of those who chose to vote (three-fifths of the electorate) or just one-fifth of those entitled to vote.

Indeed that's FPTP for you! It's equally strange that in 2019 Labour got 202 seats with 32.1% of the vote but this time got 411 with 33.8%. Or the Lib Dems, 11 seats with 11.6% of the vote in 2019 and now 72 with 12.2%.

Reality is that FPTP is a bonkers system and whilst I'm obviously very pleased with the result on this occasion it doesn't dim my flame for some manner of electoral reform!

I wonder if a few now think that rofls vote for the greens wasn't that smart ......

Indeed, "Oh we can vote with our heart because Labour are going to win anyway!", well they certainly did but their vote share wasn't spectacular and it may well have cost them some seats...

Agreed. In the NE the swing to Reform is a concern but has restored the red wall APART FROM my mum's seat that has returned a whopper Tory! FFS.

Aye but not surprising. I felt in 2019 post that result that the votes had been loaned to the Tories on the basis that they would change peoples lives for the better in the North East. They'd deliver Brexit, they'd do Levelling Up, etc etc. My worry was always what happened if (when!) they failed to do as promised and nothing fundamentally changed. Where would those voters go next? Well, this time it seems a lot of them went back to Labour thankfully. But a lot of them didn't and switched to Reform (and a lot stayed home full stop and disengaged).

Labour have got to deliver in visible ways by the time of the next General Election otherwise I worry where we'll end up.

 

[Class 317]

Labour haven't won as such - the Conservatives and SNP got a beating which handed seats to Labour. Labour's share of the vote is pretty much unchanged, and is less than the "did not vote" element.

You have to remember under tactical voting their will be a reasonable % who voted Lib Dems, greens etc in seats Labour were unlikely to win to ensure a Tory defeat and therefore a larger Labour majority. I for one did this as Labour would have been my first choice but had no chance in my constituency so Lib Dems got my vote.

It's a more complicated picture than just looking at vote share.

 

[Thirteen]

I would say for the Greens, they do have people with political experience like Sian Berry who was a GLA member although I do wonder how she'd fared in London, not well I suspect.

I think he made the right call for politics. His problem as shadow chancellor was always that he was simultaneously too nice to come across as a dull reliable economist, and too much of control-freak over spending to let left-wingers feel comfortable. He seems like a nice enough man, but I think he was instrumental in the 2015 defeat.

In hindsight, he's having a much better time being a presenter and pundit although one has to wonder how he can be impartial when he presents Good Morning Britain.

 

[507021]

Some useless trivia: Keir Starmer is the first Prime Minister since John Major to always wear glasses.

 

[Thirteen]

Some useless trivia: Keir Starmer is the first Prime Minister since John Major to always wear glasses.

He hasn't always worn glasses as I've seen him do PMQs without them but in the last year or two, he worn them more often.

Sunak also wore glasses from time to time as well. Even Margaret Thatcher had to start using glasses in her tenure.

 

[bspahh]

He across really well in a recent interview, I wonder if he does well in his current role, we might see him moved to DWP.

James Timpson was interviewed by James O'Brien in this podcast from April

"The best ideas don't come from the boardroom, the best ideas come from the frontline."

James Timpson is the chief executive of Timpson, a family-run business known for its key cutting and watch repair services. James does business differently. His unconventional leadership style has raised eyebrows - but it works. Since taking over Timpson, he has grown the business to over 2,000 stores by developing new ideas, giving ex-prisoners a second chance and putting his employees first.

He has published a book packed with leadership advice for a happier, healthy workforce. The Happy Index: Lessons in Upside-Down Management is out now

 

[ReeceD1993]

Does anyone actually know why 1 seat still hasn't been declared?

 

[brad465]

Does anyone actually know why 1 seat still hasn't been declared?

Recount in NW Scotland. The seat appears to be a Lib Dem-SNP tossup.

 

[takno]

Does anyone actually know why 1 seat still hasn't been declared?

It's gone to a recount which nobody has the energy or staff or whatever to get done today. The SNP have already conceded it, so it will be LibDem.

 

[507021]

He hasn't always worn glasses as I've seen him do PMQs without them but in the last year or two, he worn them more often.

Sunak also wore glasses from time to time as well. Even Margaret Thatcher had to start using glasses in her tenure.

I said Starmer always wears them, not he's always worn them. There is a difference.

Sunak and Thatcher (along with Blair, May and Cameron) only wore glasses occasionally, which wasn't the point I was trying to make.

 

[Kaliwax]

A conservative candidate who was standing for Lewisham claimed the disability model is wokeness gone mad! Comment disgusted Vicky Foxcroft and the other candidates there. Source, disability news service. Good job he didn't get in then!

Conservative candidate tells disabled voters: the social model of disability is ‘wokeness gone mad’

A Conservative election candidate was booed by an astonished audience of disabled activists yesterday when he dismissed the social model of disability as “discredited” and “wokeness gone mad”. Char…

www.disabilitynewsservice.com

 

[jon0844]

I agree.
Reform took 15% of the votes cast, that’s a significant number, it destroyed the Conservatives, but I see it as their high point, which will decline gradually. However, with its four seats, it won’t go away, and continue to be part of the political calculus.

As a party with almost no sensible, costed, realistic policies - all they have is immigration. Certainly most or all of their voters did so for this reason.

If Labour can do something sensible on immigration, like letting people apply for asylum in France, then Reform loses a lot of its power and influence. Plus the fact that one or all of the MPs are going to do or say something stupid and get themselves in trouble, and most will never set foot in their constituencies very often.

 

[HSTEd]

As a party with almost no sensible, costed, realistic policies - all they have is immigration. Certainly most or all of their voters did so for this reason.

'Sensible, costed, realistic policies' were in exceptionally short supply at the election.

Even looking at the Labour manifesto we have stuff like Martyn's law - an insane plan to impose terrorist attack planning on essentially all public venues of every kind. Even the consultation put out by the last government admits that it would cost £0.5-5bn per year for negligible benefits.
Another example would be the targets for 2030 electricity decarbonisation that would be almost impossible to hit without total economic mobilisation, which would probably need more than one throwaway paragraph!

Beyond that, the five million housing units with energy efficiency retrofits that will somehow be delivered inside five years...... without conscription it can't be done.

Or the continuing with the triple lock, the list goes on and on and on.

As the IFS pointed out before the election, all significant parties had serious problems in their manifestos.

 

[Snow1964]

The new Cabinet meeting today, and other more junior roles presumably being announced in next few days, on Labour side.

But I am intrigued how the opposition will look in Parliament with current seat split (and how shadow opposition roles get allocated):

121 Conservative
71 Lib Dem (sounds like they might get late Scottish count too)
9 SNP
7 Sinn Fein (don't usually take their seats)
6 Independent (do they form group, or work individually ?)
5 Reform UK
5 Democratic Unionists
4 Greens
4 Plaid Cymru
2 Social Democrat and Labour Party
1 Alliance (Northern Ireland)
1 Ulster Unionist
1 Traditional Unionist voice

Conservatives are only 51% of the opposition by seat numbers.

 

[The Ham]

He father owns the chain and he runs it. His brother was a Conservative MP until the election; he wasn’t defeated as he stood down.

James Timpson was interviewed by James O'Brien in this podcast from April

Given the history of the company employing ex-prisoners any proposals for prison reform should be good for reoffending rates and compassionate punishments (i.e. not the flog them and hang them policies which some think will work but have never done so).

 

[Harvester]

The new Cabinet meeting today, and other more junior roles presumably being announced in next few days, on Labour side.

But I am intrigued how the opposition will look in Parliament with current seat split (and how shadow opposition roles get allocated):

121 Conservative
71 Lib Dem (sounds like they might get late Scottish count too)
9 SNP
7 Sinn Fein (don't usually take their seats)
6 Independent (do they form group, or work individually ?)
5 Reform UK
5 Democratic Unionists
4 Greens
4 Plaid Cymru
2 Social Democrat and Labour Party
1 Alliance (Northern Ireland)
1 Ulster Unionist
1 Traditional Unionist voice

Conservatives are only 51% of the opposition by seat numbers.

The party with the most seats in opposition becomes the ‘official opposition’ and its leader becomes the Leader of the Opposition (with a salary similar to a Cabinet Minister). He or she appoints the shadow cabinet and their roles.

 

[The Ham]

In the exit poll stating 13 Reform seats, I do wonder if there was an element of the press to over estimate, knowing the typical line from Reform is "the mainstream media are ignoring us" (even said this on election night when Channel 4 had Ann Widdecombe on their panel) and so by having to accept that they ended up with fewer seats than the mainstream media had reported that they were predicted to win it takes some of the wind out of this argument.

However, either the BBC or Channel 4 said that the reason for the number was there were several seats where Reform were expected to come second, however it was so tight. Meaning was a judgement, which they (ultimately) went the wrong way on. However, if you look at the seats predicted vs actual results there's quite a few that they got wrong, even though the overall picture was broadly correct.