UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath

[59CosG95]

One of the final 6 seats to declare has now declared. Hendon - a Labour gain with a majority of just 15 votes! Labour 15 855, Conservatives 15 840. There must've been some frantic recounting going there!

It was rather close for my local constituency too - NW Cambs had only 39 in it! Peterborough was slightly larger on 118.

 

[renegademaster]

reckon at least something like 40% of those people would break for Labour if Reform didn't exist.

This is what seemed to happen after UKIP faltered out post referendum

== Automerge ==
Interesting Galloway and his party didn't do well but their is a handful of similar independents on platforms to do with Palestine elected

 

[jfollows]

Attached from Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-ELECTION/RESULTS/lbvgllknbpq/) showing vote share.
2019 Conservative 43.6% - Other 8.4%
2024 Conservative 23.7% - Other 27.3%
All other parties not significantly changed.

1997 Labour 43.2%
2024 Labour 33.8%

The way our systems works translates this into a Labour "landslide" but it isn't really, or at least it only is in terms of numbers of seats, which is of course important. But it does not indicate a "seismic" change if the Conservatives can get their act together. I predict they won't for quite a while to come, though.

 

[Senex]

And in the alternative universe where Turkeys won the election, their first act is to ensure free Christmas dinners for everyone

Exactly so! And as long as the Tories think their turn will come again and they'll once more have all the power for the time being, there will be no pressure from them.

The only hope for electoral reform would have been a hung parliament.

As it is, it's FPTP for the conceivable future — but at least many of us can take some consolation from the massive reduction of a Tory presence at Westminster, from the good kicking given to the Brexit party. Still, it would have been nice if those MRP predictions of seats in the 50s for the Tories had been realised and that party had been smashed beyond repair.

 

[X-City-WM]

Hardly surprising that the Birmingham constituencies (including my own) chose Labour as they always do, with the exception of Perry Barr who chose an Independent.

And Sutton Coldfield, which stuck with the Tory incumbent.

 

[jfollows]

South Basildon and East Thurrock (that’s one seat, to be clear) yet to declare, presumably it’s a close result. It’s now 6 hours after the expected declaration time.

 

[Gloster]

South Basildon and East Thurrock (that’s one seat, to be clear) yet to declare, presumably it’s a close result. It’s now 6 hours after the expected declaration time.

They won’t declare for a while as they are doing a complete recount starting at 14.00. It appears to be a shambles (correction).

 

[jfollows]

Hardly surprising that the Birmingham constituencies (including my own) chose Labour as they always do, with the exception of Perry Barr who chose an Independent.

But they only just did as you say, the vote share for Labour was drastically down:
Smethwick -9%
Edgbaston -8%
Ladywood -40.5%
Hodge Hill & Solihull N -28.7%
Yardley -26.9% (Jess Phillips)
Perry Barr -33.9% (lost to Independent)

It was only because of the enormous Labour majorities in the past that this decline in vote share didn't mean more lost seats.
==========

Poole won by Labour with a majority of 18, after 3 recounts!

Sinn Fein remain with 7 seats but 4.2% increase in vote share to 27%, the largest share of any party in Northern Ireland.

 

[Djgr]

A day of tremendous celebration as we have finally got rid of those useful clowns and spivs who have broken Britain.

 

[Kaliwax]

I'm so glad to see when I woke up this morning Truss, and Coffey both lost their seats!

 

[ChrisC]

So, did Labour win the election, or did Reform and Apathy lose it for the conservstives?

I’m looking forward to some analysis which shows what would have happened if all Reform votes had been made for the conservatives instead.

I can’t speak for the rest of the country, but around here in the Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire ex mining communities, I don‘t see Reform as getting all of their votes from former Conservative voters. Many of the Lee Anderson “I want my country back” type of Reform voters to me appear to be traditional pre Tony Blair old Labour style voters. These people would never have voted anything but Labour in the past, but felt that New Labour had nothing to offer working class people in the north. Slowly, over the years the Conservatives were getting more their of support, and these people have now turned to Reform. It‘s also Brexit and immigration that has driven this. I think the traditional long term Conservative voters around here are more likely to remain with the Conservatives or not vote at all. Some of the the more centre right Conservatives may have voted Lib Dem or even Labour but they would never vote for Reform.

 

[Geezertronic]

But they only just did as you say, the vote share for Labour was drastically down:
Smethwick -9%
Edgbaston -8%
Ladywood -40.5%
Hodge Hill & Solihull N -28.7%
Yardley -26.9% (Jess Phillips)
Perry Barr -33.9% (lost to Independent)

In my constituency - Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North - there was a 26.6% vote share for a candidate for "Workers Party of Britain" (who I had personally never heard of) who was 2nd, and Reform with 18.9% in 3rd. Conservatives came 4th with 13.6% and the Greens & Lib Dems were nowhere. Similar to Yardley where Jess Phillips should rightly be concerned

 

[GusB]

Probably not wise to crow too much. The SNP got just as big a spanking as the Tories. Which is just as funny and just as deserved.

Your point is?

 

[Senex]

Attached from Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-ELECTION/RESULTS/lbvgllknbpq/) showing vote share.
2019 Conservative 43.6% - Other 8.4%
2024 Conservative 23.7% - Other 27.3%
All other parties not significantly changed.

1997 Labour 43.2%
2024 Labour 33.8%

The way our systems works translates this into a Labour "landslide" but it isn't really, or at least it only is in terms of numbers of seats, which is of course important. But it does not indicate a "seismic" change if the Conservatives can get their act together. I predict they won't for quite a while to come, though.
View attachment 161297

So one-third of the votes delivered almost two-thirds of the seats. Many congratulations to Keir Starmer — and it was good to see him at last shewing signs of real pleasure last night — but what a strange result this really is.

 

[Mojo]

In Northern Ireland Jim Allister has ended 54 years of the Paisley dynasty sitting in parliament and taken North Antrim from the DUP. He stood as a candidate TUV-ReformUK alliance (with TUV - No Sea Border on the ballot papers but equal prominence to TUV and ReformUK on publicity.)

Elsewhere in NI, an independent has won in North Down. Arlene Foster said on GBNews this morning he would also sit with Reform but cannot see this mentioned anywhere else other than the fact that TUV supported him for the seat and didn’t stand a candidate of their own.

 

[brad465]

Turnout is around 60%, which is certainly one of the lowest, but is also comparable to the 2001 election when Labour retained the 1997 landslide more or less, so not an unprecedented level. What's worth remembering is this is the first general election with voter ID, so we will have to see if this reduced turnout noticeably (5% or so would be enough of a reduction to mean otherwise it would have been comparable to previous elections). I know it's been heavily advertised and voters should be aware of it, but you will still get some who don't find out, possibly because they avoid the news.

Labour lost votes and seats in areas which used to be solid Labour - Birmingham for example. Jess Phillips only just held on to her seat. This is a big problem for them and something they need to sort out - presumably part of the reason for their relatively small gain in vote share is because they lost a lot of votes in these sorts of areas but picked up some votes in others.

I don't know what the best approach is here, but this apparent rise in sectarian politics on that issue could be dangerous if allowed to manifest further. One only needs to look at Northern Ireland to know why.

 

[railfan99]

There's history, antagonism and egos to contend with, but one lesson from the election (which the government lost - it wasn't a huge endorsement of Labour - is that in a couple of years, the right wing parties of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK ought consider merging, or if that's impossible, striking a formal Coalition agreement. Not suggesting this is easy.

This is what in Queensland, Australia, the Liberals (conservatives) and Nationals (historically rural-based as the Country Party) did. Although my nation has vastly different preferential voting to your FPTP, Federally as well as in some states, being united has been seen as maximising the utility of the non-Labor (our spelling) vote.

NZ has a three party Coalition government not long elected. But again, a vastly different electoral system to the UK (and Australia).

It's hard to see Mr Farage's Reform party winning on its own.

Labour/Labor is the enemy, and a formidable one.

 

[Magdalia]

Cambridgeshire is a good example of how difficult it is to predict the outcome of this general election.

Cambridgeshire has a rapidly growing population, lots of 2024 voters will not have been in Cambridgeshire in 2019. As a result Cambridgeshire gained a seat in the recent boundary review, going up from 7 to 8. St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire is the new constituency, but there are significant boundary changes to most of the other constituencies.

In 2019 the Conservatives took all of the seats except Cambridge, which was Labour.

Cambridge and North East Cambridgeshire are the only two constituencies where the outcome can be predicted with real confidence, with Labour holding Cambridge and Conservative holding North East Cambridgeshire. The most interesting feature in Cambridge will be whether the Greens can take second place ahead of the LibDems, who will be concentrating their campaign resources elsewhere (see below).

Two seats very likely to change hands are Labour winning Peterborough and LibDem winning South Cambridgeshire. Both of these only need relatively small swings but, on the other hand, a lot of tactical voting is possibly already "baked in".

The other 4 constituencies are very difficult to predict, the outcomes will depend on influx of new voters, size of swing, and extent of tactical voting. All of them start from a point where the Conservatives probably won in 2019 with more than 50% of the vote on the new boundaries, so, in the past, tactical voting has not been a significant factor.

In St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, and Ely and East Cambridgeshire, the LibDems probably start the campaign best placed to challenge the Conservatives, but with about 20 percentage point gaps to close. The St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire new constituency is especially difficult to predict because it includes the rapidly expanding new towns of Cambourne and Northstowe, and is also the constituency most affected by East West Rail. The extent of tactical voting for the LibDems could be key here.

In North West Cambridgeshire (which includes most of Peterborough south of the River Nene) and Huntingdon (which also includes St Ives), Labour probably start the campaign best placed to challenge the Conservatives, but with even bigger gaps to close than the LibDems have in St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire or Ely and East Cambridgeshire. Labour will only be able to take these in a landslide victory. To demonstrate the scale of what we are talking about here, Huntingdon was John Major's constituency.

Labour held Cambridge with 47% of the votes. The Liberal Democrats (20%) retained second place with the Greens not far behind (16%). The Conservatives held North East Cambridgeshire with 42% of the vote, Reform (23%) coming second ahead of Labour (20%).

The Liberal Democrats won emphatically in South Cambridgeshire with 47% of the vote, the Conservatives (21%) way behind in second place. On the other hand the Labour majority over the Conservatives in Peterborough was just 118 (both 33%), then Reform (13%) and Workers (12%).

The Liberal Democrats won comfortably in St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, with 37%, Conservatives (28%) were second. The Liberal Democrats (33%) also won in Ely and East Cambridgeshire, but with a majority of only 495 over the Conservatives (32%).

Labour took North West Cambridgeshire with a majority of just 39 ahead of the Conservatives (both 33%). Reform were third (20%). The Conservatives did hold Huntingdon (35%) with Labour second (32%) and Reform (15%) third.

After decades of being very boring politically, Cambridgeshire now has 3 very marginal constituencies.

 

[Magdalia]

Labour/Labor is the enemy, and a formidable one.

The result clearly shows who the UK electorate regarded as the enemy.

 

[Donny Dave]

As a Conservative supporter, I'm not surprised at the hammering they have received in the election. The combination of scandal, division and chaos from Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss made it unwinnable for them.

However, I do take some comfort from that a quite a few of the hard right MPs have list their seats, so hopefully, the part can refocus on becoming center-right and rebuild.

[Ducks back behind the parapet]

 

[Tester]

There's history, antagonism and egos to contend with, but one lesson from the election (which the government lost - it wasn't a huge endorsement of Labour - is that in a couple of years, the right wing parties of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK ought consider merging, or if that's impossible, striking a formal Coalition agreement. Not suggesting this is easy.

This is what in Queensland, Australia, the Liberals (conservatives) and Nationals (historically rural-based as the Country Party) did. Although my nation has vastly different preferential voting to your FPTP, Federally as well as in some states, being united has been seen as maximising the utility of the non-Labor (our spelling) vote.

NZ has a three party Coalition government not long elected. But again, a vastly different electoral system to the UK (and Australia).

It's hard to see Mr Farage's Reform party winning on its own.

Labour/Labor is the enemy, and a formidable one.

Bit in bold

Whilst the Liberal Democrats share a word with a right wing Australian party, they are in no way a fit here!

 

[jfollows]

They won’t declare for a while as they are doing a complete recount starting at 14.00. It appears to be a shambles (correction).

Thank you.
As well as this one - S Basildon & E Thurrock - there will be a recount tomorrow for Inverness, Skye & W Ross-shire, which is between SNP and LibDem.

 

[RichJF]

There's history, antagonism and egos to contend with, but one lesson from the election (which the government lost - it wasn't a huge endorsement of Labour - is that in a couple of years, the right wing parties of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK ought consider merging, or if that's impossible, striking a formal Coalition agreement. Not suggesting this is easy.

This is what in Queensland, Australia, the Liberals (conservatives) and Nationals (historically rural-based as the Country Party) did. Although my nation has vastly different preferential voting to your FPTP, Federally as well as in some states, being united has been seen as maximising the utility of the non-Labor (our spelling) vote.

NZ has a three party Coalition government not long elected. But again, a vastly different electoral system to the UK (and Australia).

It's hard to see Mr Farage's Reform party winning on its own.

Labour/Labor is the enemy, and a formidable one.

Did you really just call the LD's a right wing party?

 

[DarloRich]

"A new day has broken has it not?"

 

[dgl]

Now announced that Labour have taken Poole from the Conservatives but with only about 16 votes, first count had only six in it.
Only Conservative areas in Dorset are now North Dorset and Christchurch.

 

[DelW]

There's history, antagonism and egos to contend with, but one lesson from the election (which the government lost - it wasn't a huge endorsement of Labour - is that in a couple of years, the right wing parties of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK ought consider merging, or if that's impossible, striking a formal Coalition agreement. Not suggesting this is easy.

There is no chance whatever of that combination entering any form of alliance. Most Lib Dem activists (and probably LD voters) are much closer to Labour than they are to Reform. Farage is anathema to them (and many others).

In Downing Street, Sunak gave a decent, thoughtful, valedictory speech. He made mistakes, but his biggest problem was the inheritance from Johnson and Truss. The situation was probably unrecoverable after those two. He did a fair job recovering from some of the worst aspects of Johnson and Frost's awful Brexit "deal", but there's a way to go on that front.

 

[jfollows]

It's hard to see Mr Farage's Reform party winning on its own.

I agree.
Reform took 15% of the votes cast, that’s a significant number, it destroyed the Conservatives, but I see it as their high point, which will decline gradually. However, with its four seats, it won’t go away, and continue to be part of the political calculus.

 

[DarloRich]

Today is a great day. Labour have won a massive landslide. However, the hard work starts now. it isn't the same as 1997. It is graft everyday from now. Labour have to be perfect everyday or the Tory press will attack them in a way they wont when the Tory's mess up. There is no honeymoon to be had. it is an extraordinary victory but means nothing without delivery, improvement and change. However, things can only get better!

As an aside i wonder if there are people in certain constituencies waking up regretting that vote for the greens or lib dems that led to a Tory keeping their seat?

 

[jfollows]

In Downing Street, Sunak gave a decent, thoughtful, valedictory speech. He made mistakes, but his biggest problem was the inheritance from Johnson and Truss. The situation was probably unrecoverable after those two. He did a fair job recovering from some of the worst aspects of Johnson and Frost's awful Brexit "deal", but there's a way to go on that front.

His failing was in not publicly and decisively distancing himself from the two of them. This election came with all their baggage as a result.

 

[D1537]

I agree.
Reform took 15% of the votes cast, that’s a significant number, it destroyed the Conservatives, but I see it as their high point, which will decline gradually. However, with its four seats, it won’t go away, and continue to be part of the political calculus.

Yes, exactly this. Reform only got the votes they did because (a) they were seen as an alternative to the Tories (a protest vote if you like), and (b) the Tories were so incredibly unpopular. However, there was incredibly little light shone on what Reform actually stood for, since Farage only jumped on his own bandwagon four weeks before the election.

Now they have four MPs the light will be upon them and will probably reveal them for what they are i.e. a bunch of chancers with shoddy and un-costed policies and a more than slight dose of racism and bigotry thrown in.