Russia invades Ukraine

[najaB]

Lukashenko has somehow managed to survive by walking the Russia/EU tightrope, until finally throwing his lot in with Putin out of desperation when the Belarusian people decided they’d had enough. That was surely the end in terms of playing both sides; he’s well and truly in Putin’s pocket now and entirely dependant on him for his own survival.

And it's also largely cut Belarus off from Western businesses too. As an example, my employer had a reasonably large development office that had been built up after acquiring a Belarussian company.

Now the office has been closed and the key devs have moved to Poland and/or the USA.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Long term, even if Russia “wins” this war, the demographics of all those Russian people especially males , is going to be horrendous. AFAIK, they have/ had not recovered from WW2 losses.

 

[Broucek]

Long term, even if Russia “wins” this war, the demographics of all those Russian people especially males , is going to be horrendous. AFAIK, they have/ had not recovered from WW2 losses.

70,000 dead/wounded in two months...

 

[Yew]

70,000 dead/wounded in two months...

For context, they would suffer fewer casualties if they did an Omaha beach landing every single day.

 

[edwin_m]

Long term, even if Russia “wins” this war, the demographics of all those Russian people especially males , is going to be horrendous. AFAIK, they have/ had not recovered from WW2 losses.

Russians of fighting age would have been born between the mid-80s and the early 2000s, when things were particularly bad and many couples may have been less keen on starting or expanding a family. Also, many of their parents would have been born in the 60s and their grandparents in the 40s, when WW2 was affecting birth rates, and I believe this "shadow effect" can still be seen in population distributions.

However, exactly the same applies to the Ukrainians too.

 

[Trackman]

Russians of fighting age would have been born between the mid-80s and the early 2000s, when things were particularly bad and many couples may have been less keen on starting or expanding a family. Also, many of their parents would have been born in the 60s and their grandparents in the 40s, when WW2 was affecting birth rates, and I believe this "shadow effect" can still be seen in population distributions.

However, exactly the same applies to the Ukrainians too.

You say about Russians of fighting age, born between mid-80s and early 2000s - I mentioned a BBC documentary I watched up thread called 'Enemy in the woods' which is a good watch but could be a bit distressing for some.
The Ukrainian unit captured a couple of Russian soldiers, and one was 54. Didn't seem bothered when captured, are they in it for the money or is it a conscript job?

 

[swt_passenger]

You say about Russians of fighting age, born between mid-80s and early 2000s - I mentioned a BBC documentary I watched up thread called 'Enemy in the woods' which is a good watch but could be a bit distressing for some.
The Ukrainian unit captured a couple of Russian soldiers, and one was 54. Didn't seem bothered when captured, are they in it for the money or is it a conscript job?

It was said early on that many were prisoners released early if they joined up.

 

[507021]

You say about Russians of fighting age, born between mid-80s and early 2000s - I mentioned a BBC documentary I watched up thread called 'Enemy in the woods' which is a good watch but could be a bit distressing for some.
The Ukrainian unit captured a couple of Russian soldiers, and one was 54. Didn't seem bothered when captured, are they in it for the money or is it a conscript job?

Thank you for bringing this to my attention, it was a very moving programme to watch.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It was said early on that many were prisoners released early if they joined up.

Correct sir.

 

[RailWonderer]

You say about Russians of fighting age, born between mid-80s and early 2000s - I mentioned a BBC documentary I watched up thread called 'Enemy in the woods' which is a good watch but could be a bit distressing for some.
The Ukrainian unit captured a couple of Russian soldiers, and one was 54. Didn't seem bothered when captured, are they in it for the money or is it a conscript job?

I watched it yesterday. One mentioned being paid 400k rubles (£3500) which in the UK is pretty good, and in Russia you could live like a Tsar I imagine.

There was a big fall in birth rates in the 1990s in Russia due to high crime, hyperinflation and instability. Ukraine is the same in having a lot of middle aged soldiers in the beginning of the war as there are more of them and they are more patriotic/willing to go to war, whereas the young aren't as keen to fight.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Long term the demographics for both nations is not good. They never really recovered from WW2 either. They really need immigration like Europe is seeing but lets be honest, those two countries are much less desirable to live in.

 

[najaB]

They really need immigration like Europe is seeing but less be honest, those two countries are much less desirable to live in.

Though, of the two, one is considerably less attractive than the other - even with a war going on!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Though, of the two, one is considerably less attractive than the other - even with a war going on!

I assume without appearing to be ignorant that Ukraine would be considerably more attractive?

 

[najaB]

I assume without appearing to be ignorant that Ukraine would be considerably more attractive?

It certainly would be my choice of the two!

 

[ainsworth74]

Ukraine is the same in having a lot of middle aged soldiers in the beginning of the war as there are more of them and they are more patriotic/willing to go to war, whereas the young aren't as keen to fight.

My understanding that, in terms of conscription, that the current policy is to conscript older than you might think. Whilst every male between 18 and 60 has to register with their local conscription office (or whatever the right term would be), and men aged under-60 are not allowed to leave the country without specific permission, they've only, until very recently been actively conscripting those aged 27 or older and only in the last few months was that was lowered to 25.

Of course the reality is that if you look at the demographics of Ukraine there's a good reason why the majority of soldiers skew older and that's simply that there aren't very many Ukrainians aged between about 35 and 15:

(Image shows population "pyramid" for Ukraine showing a gentle decline of people aged over 40 with an accelerated drop from around age 65 onwards. However going the other way it shows a huge decline from around age 40 down to 25 in the numbers of men and women in Ukraine, before recovering again, but at a much lower level to around age 15, before declining again to age 0)

Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_population_pyramid_2024_UN.png

You can obviously recruit those aged under-27 (as Ukraine is now doing having lowered the aged to 25) but there just aren't the people there to conscript unlike those aged over-35. So I'm not entirely sure it's fair to say that Ukrainian youths aren't willing to fight for their country. It is also worth noting that during things like Euromaidan in 2014 a not inconsiderable number of the protestors getting shot at and killed were young people. I'm not sure it's a sustainable argument to suggest that young Ukrainian's aren't patriotic.

I assume without appearing to be ignorant that Ukraine would be considerably more attractive?

If your choice, even now, is between Ukraine and Russia, you'd be mad to move to anywhere other Ukraine. It is, even before the war, a flawed democracy with serious issues with corruption (which it continues to try and battle even now) but it is a democracy and does pay more than lip service to the rule of law. There is a great deal of work to do to strengthen and develop Ukrainian democracy and the structures that go with being a successful democratic nation. But even in it's current flawed form Ukraine is night and day compared to Russia.

 

[najaB]

But even in it's current flawed form Ukraine is night and day compared to Russia.

Indeed.

As a case in point, I'm a black man in a non-tradtional relationship. Both things that would likely result in a visit from Putin's thugs.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Indeed.

As a case in point, I'm a black man in a non-tradtional relationship. Both things that would likely result in a visit from Putin's thugs.

Wow seriously? I knew that a non traditional relationship could get you in trouble in Russia- but skin colour too?

 

[najaB]

Wow seriously? I knew that a non traditional relationship could get you in trouble in Russia- but skin colour too?

Yup. The far-right groups play all the usual hits. It doesn't help that I also apparently look "Muslim".

There was BBC3 documentary a few years back where they spoke with some of these groups. What they had to say would have made Hitler think they'd gone too far!

 

[DustyBin]

Yup. The far-right groups play all the usual hits. It doesn't help that I also apparently look "Muslim".

There was BBC3 documentary a few years back where they spoke with some of these groups. What they had to say would have made Hitler think they'd gone too far!

I think I may have watched that. If it was the same documentary, they followed a group of pro-Putin young people (i.e. teenagers) who were basically empowered to take the law into their own hands, and deal with "undesirables". Is was all very "Hitler Youth" and quite shocking actually!

 

[jon0844]

I think I may have watched that. If it was the same documentary, they followed a group of pro-Putin young people (i.e. teenagers) who were basically empowered to take the law into their own hands, and deal with "undesirables". Is was all very "Hitler Youth" and quite shocking actually!

And this is why Trump and his followers like Putin. It certainly isn't for his politics, but rather the way he dictates society which seems extremely racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic and so on.

That is like direct match to the MAGA movement viewpoints.

 

[najaB]

I think I may have watched that. If it was the same documentary, they followed a group of pro-Putin young people (i.e. teenagers) who were basically empowered to take the law into their own hands, and deal with "undesirables". Is was all very "Hitler Youth" and quite shocking actually!

Yup. Sounds like it was the same one.

 

[Cloud Strife]

If your choice, even now, is between Ukraine and Russia, you'd be mad to move to anywhere other Ukraine. It is, even before the war, a flawed democracy with serious issues with corruption (which it continues to try and battle even now) but it is a democracy and does pay more than lip service to the rule of law. There is a great deal of work to do to strengthen and develop Ukrainian democracy and the structures that go with being a successful democratic nation. But even in it's current flawed form Ukraine is night and day compared to Russia.

Having said that, Ukraine wasn't a particularly nice place 20 years ago. Corruption was widespread and even worse than in Russia, and a friend living there happily tells stories about how he obtained several degrees (including a doctorate) by simply paying the right amount of cash to the right person. The traffic police were openly and blatantly corrupt, and many issues could be made to go away by simply paying the right person.

Things are much better now, although Ukraine did start from an incredibly low level. Interestingly, Belarus managed to avoid most of the problems that plagued 1990-2014 Ukraine, even down to retaining the Soviet-era strict (but correct and uncorrupt) traffic policing system.

 

[ainsworth74]

Having said that, Ukraine wasn't a particularly nice place 20 years ago. Corruption was widespread and even worse than in Russia, and a friend living there happily tells stories about how he obtained several degrees (including a doctorate) by simply paying the right amount of cash to the right person. The traffic police were openly and blatantly corrupt, and many issues could be made to go away by simply paying the right person.

Things are much better now, although Ukraine did start from an incredibly low level. Interestingly, Belarus managed to avoid most of the problems that plagued 1990-2014 Ukraine, even down to retaining the Soviet-era strict (but correct and uncorrupt) traffic policing system.

Oh yes it's important not to sugar coat it, Ukraine had and has (ignoring, you know, the war) problems. But in comparison to Russia? Especially post-2014? I'm not sure it's a comparison really.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Oh yes it's important not to sugar coat it, Ukraine had and has (ignoring, you know, the war) problems. But in comparison to Russia? Especially post-2014? I'm not sure it's a comparison really.

I think possibly, you could argue that Russia was in a better position in the mid 2000s when Putin had managed to clean up the previous lawlessness without taking it to extremes, but certainly post-2014, Ukraine is miles ahead in terms of governance. It's actually a fascinating role reversal, because Russia in the first decade of Putin's rule actually seemed to be making a decent step forward.

Although I have to admit, one of the funniest things on Twitter nowadays is watching the people praise Russia and talk about how great Russia is, but they don't actually want to live there!

 

[RailWonderer]

The traffic police were openly and blatantly corrupt, and many issues could be made to go away by simply paying the right person.

I lived in South Africa where it was exactly like that. Many countries live and breathe on bribery, they get paid so little that it's like tipping a waiter. Everyone does it.

Oh yes it's important not to sugar coat it, Ukraine had and has (ignoring, you know, the war) problems. But in comparison to Russia? Especially post-2014? I'm not sure it's a comparison really.

Russia has a better standard of living in Moscow and St Petersburg minus the luxury of having a political opinion. Anywhere else and it's the same or worse than Ukraine.

And this is why Trump and his followers like Putin. It certainly isn't for his politics, but rather the way he dictates society which seems extremely racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic and so on.

Not accurate. It's a crime to insult the Quran in Russia and Putin is more an imperial than a rascist. He wants to slowly restore or gain influence in the ex-Soviet sphere. Gays aren't banished, only the celebration and promotion of them is, which is probably what Trump followers like, the promotion and defence of tradition rather than liberal progressivism. And what people don't realise is Russia is a very traditional society, the Iron Curtain never saw the late 60s sexual liberation, feminism and acceptance of homosexuality etc so family values and anti gay sentiment is very strong throughout Eastern Europe and Russia, even in Poland and Hungary. Governments tend to reflect their societies on these issue. In fact, the Kremlin faces pressure to be even more traditional from Russian Orthodox politicians and clerics. It's all a part of 'Eurasianism' which is pitted against Western Liberalism.

Putin jailed a lot of neo nazis which again people don't realise, because far right people are a threat to him as they are a global, western affiliated network, the same as Jehovah's Witnesses in that regard, who were exiled.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Poland

In Poland, the conflict between "European" and "Russian" is painfully apparent in the division between cities and the countryside. There's also a rather large gulf in mentalities between the west and east of the country, to the point where it's like living in an entirely different country. It's not for nothing that many people in Western Poland quite openly say that the eastern part of the country should simply join Russia.

I was talking to one teacher from eastern Poland at a conference last year, and some of the things that she told me would be unthinkable where I live.

 

[najaB]

Reports coming through that Ukraine has managed to sink the Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don which was undergoing repairs following the previous damage in an earlier attack in September.

 

[Cowley]

Reports coming through that Ukraine has managed to sink the Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don which was undergoing repairs following the previous damage in an earlier attack in September.

Does anyone have a general overview of how things are going for Ukraine at the moment?

I must admit that I’ve not been following things recently and I’d appreciate a bit of knowledge if anyone’s up on the cold hard facts.

 

[brad465]

Reports coming through that Ukraine has managed to sink the Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don which was undergoing repairs following the previous damage in an earlier attack in September.

If a ship that sinks is promoted to submarine, what does a submarine that's struck get promoted to?

 

[najaB]

If a ship that sinks is promoted to submarine, what does a submarine that's struck get promoted to?

Reef?