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The 2024 US presidential election.

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edwin_m

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Could be a car-crash for him. Harris didn't really shine in the 2020 VP. I would hope she's learned an awful lot in the last four years, finally drops the word salads she's previously employed during public speeches and tears Trump a new one in the process.
From what I've seen Harris today is very different from how she came across in 2020, but we haven't seen her debating recently so it's certainly a concern. Some of the word salads have been re-purposed as memes, including the coconut tree one that neatly defangs a possible line of attack (the way a coconut is brown outside and white inside).
 
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He only has one rally/group therapy session lined up in the coming days/week, in the safe red state of Montana I think. Tells you all you need to know about how well he's coping with the Harris-Walz ticket surging ahead.

I think this is also somewhat proof that this isn't the same Trump as 2016. Back then, he was holding a lot of rallies to decent sized audiences, and now he seems to be completely hiding from a lot of the key battlegrounds.

From what I've seen Harris today is very different from how she came across in 2020, but we haven't seen her debating recently so it's certainly a concern.

One major issue for Trump is that he's facing a Harris that is enjoying a lot of success by simply making fun of him. She's discovered that he (and the Republicans) can't cope with dinner table insults, and it's unlikely that he's going to be able to stop himself from getting nasty when she starts calling him a weird old man. As long as she proves herself to be reasonably competent in terms of knowledge, her KO blow will come from describing Trump in a one-liner that can be endlessly quoted.

Having said that, any Vance-Walz debate will almost certainly be a trainwreck for Trump. It has to be playing heavily on his mind that Vance, although loyal, is not going to be a good lieutenant. He needs someone who can get out there and fight in every battleground with their political experience, and Vance is not that person.

He's a shadow of the man he was in 2016.

He certainly is. Trump in 2016 was running a very energetic campaign, whereas he seems almost afraid to step out now. Going back to what someone said above, that the assassination attempt might be playing on him, could be true. It would explain his reluctance to get into the trenches and fight, something that defined him in 2016 and now seems to be defining him in 2024.
 

AlterEgo

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He certainly is. Trump in 2016 was running a very energetic campaign, whereas he seems almost afraid to step out now. Going back to what someone said above, that the assassination attempt might be playing on him, could be true. It would explain his reluctance to get into the trenches and fight, something that defined him in 2016 and now seems to be defining him in 2024.
Trump is definitely less energetic this time, but it is odd as he was running a less intense but more polished campaign until Biden dropped out. Now even the polish has gone.
 

ainsworth74

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He's struggling with something for sure. Yesterday's ramble-thon was particularly eye-opening. He's a shadow of the man he was in 2016. Physically he looks a lot older than he did even a few months ago and mentally something is definitely off-kilter, even for Trump. May be down to the assassination attempt, the recent upgrade of the Democrat opponents and how Trump fares in comparison or any combination thereof.

I think his deterioration has been going on for a little while now so I'm not sure if the assassination has played a role in that or not but I definitely think it might be why he's avoiding campaigning in front of large crowds. After all it is the thing that clearly brought him a lot of satisfaction, he seemed to spend a large chunk of his presidency at campaign rallies! But his mental decline is, I think, quite noticeable now. Especially when he's off prompter (which is often).

I watched a video a little while ago by left-wing YouTuber who broke down his "Very fine people" speech following the Charlottesville killing (when a white supremacist drove into a group counter-protesting a white nationalist rally in the city killing one and injuring dozens) in 2017 to provide the relevant context and to critique a Snopes article on the subject that was published not so long ago and the thing that struck me was how coherent he was. It's been a long time since I've seen footage of Trump from during his presidency and wow he's declined massively in the interim. This was a Q&A session with the media, no prompter and no advance knowledge of what the press pack would ask him and whilst what he's saying is, let go with not great, it holds together as series of ideas and is coherent. See for yourself:


There is no way that the Trump of 2024 could carry out a press conference like that. Even before the assassination attempt (the breakdown I referred to above is here).

This is very plausible. It would definitely explain some of his behaviour, the guy’s had such a cosseted life and that’s surely the first time that he’s actually experienced any sort of physical violence?

Note sure about any physical violence but surely the only time he's faced life threatening physical violence I would have thought?
 

edwin_m

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Trump is definitely less energetic this time, but it is odd as he was running a less intense but more polished campaign until Biden dropped out. Now even the polish has gone.
Quite possibly the Trump campaign's worst enemy is Trump. I get the impression he had competent people running things and was prepared to leave them to it while he was winning. Now he's apparently falling behind he's starting to panic and ignoring the professionals.
 

Cloud Strife

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Trump is definitely less energetic this time, but it is odd as he was running a less intense but more polished campaign until Biden dropped out. Now even the polish has gone.

I think it may just be the combination of the assassination attempt and the shock of losing Biden as an opponent. He was mentally and physically prepared for a weakened Biden who was looking increasingly frail, and now suddenly he's got a younger, stronger challenger who has completely changed the campaign narrative.
 

bahnause

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I don't think Donnie was ever energetic. He's just a spoilt, characterless, narcissistic egoist devoid of any self-reflection who has never had to deal with criticism or pushback. Talking over people isn't being energetic. Lying isn't. Cheating isn't. Raping isn't He was always carried by his fanboys and his team who were willing to give up their own dignity and reputation for him. He never carried his own weight.
 

43096

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This is very plausible. It would definitely explain some of his behaviour, the guy’s had such a cosseted life and that’s surely the first time that he’s actually experienced any sort of physical violence?
Arguably he's lead such a cossetted life than no-one has ever said "no" to him. I blame the parents for indulging him and never saying "no".
 

Busaholic

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Trump has just agreed to the ABC TV debate next month as well, which on current trends in his behaviour could be an absolute disaster for him (not for us though).
When it all goes wrong for him at the first debate he'll be attacking ABC (it's his current hate TV channel ahead of CNN and NBC) for favouring Harris in some way - he'll probably then pull out of the following planned two alleging massive bias.


EDIT Just found out that Fox are hosting/moderating the first debate in their usual impartial way, NBC the second and ABC only the third.
 
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Cowley

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Arguably he's lead such a cossetted life than no-one has ever said "no" to him. I blame the parents for indulging him and never saying "no".

The Trump family dynamics are a whole world of dysfunctional strangeness!
 

edwin_m

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Arguably he's lead such a cossetted life than no-one has ever said "no" to him. I blame the parents for indulging him and never saying "no".
I think it could be the opposite - trying to satisfy an extremely demanding father means that for him winning is essential.
 

Thirteen

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I remember seeing a documentary on Trump that Emily Maitlis did a couple of years before he announced his presidency and he seemed more erm... maybe not normal but certainly less agitated and more calm than he is now.
 

Strathclyder

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The Trump family dynamics are a whole world of dysfunctional strangeness!
The only real normal ones I'm aware of are Mary Trump (his niece) and Fred Trump (not his dad ofc, but the one with the disabled son whom Trump said should just die to save on all the medical expenses his round-the-clock care requires). The stories they've shared are startling, but not surprising and should be taken as clear-cut evidence (if one really needed any more than we have) that he is utterly unfit to be anywhere near the Oval Office.
 
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birchesgreen

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The only real normal ones I'm aware of are Mary Trump (his niece) and Fred Trump (not his dad ofc, but the one with the disabled son whom Trump said should just die to save on all the medical expensives his round-the-clock care requires). The stories they've shared are startling, but not surprising and should be taken as clear-cut evidence (if one really needed any more than we have) that he is utterly unfit to be anywhere near the Oval Office.
What is the name of the daughter he openly shunned on stage at the convention? That was (yet again) pretty weird.
 

GusB

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The Trump family dynamics are a whole world of dysfunctional strangeness!
I think it could be the opposite - trying to satisfy an extremely demanding father means that for him winning is essential.
Last night I listened to Americast on Radio 4, in which Trump's nephew, Fred Trump, is interviewed. It mentions that his father was derided for wanting to be an airline pilot rather than going into business. He also mentioned that he's backing Harris in the election! The link is here:

 

brad465

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So tonight Musk "interviews" Trump. I doubt it will achieve anything positive for them as a) I suspect a Venn diagram of Trump and Musk supporters is pretty much a perfect circle these days, b) these two have such massive egos that I wonder if it will be them trying to show each other off more than supporting each other.
 

nlogax

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The only surprise with Trump returning to Twitter is why it took so long since Musk unlocked his account. Probably helped that Musk is also donating a metric ****ton of cash to Trump's campaign. All the while Truth Social isn't faring so well, financially speaking.
 

AlterEgo

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Trump has also been running undeclared ads with the help of Musk. A very odd pair of genuine weirdos.
 

Cowley

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these two have such massive egos that I wonder if it will be them trying to show each other off more than supporting each other.

Maybe they’ll just gaze at each other lovingly and laugh at each other’s jokes.

Actually I think they’ll definitely do that.
 

brad465

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Maybe they’ll just gaze at each other lovingly and laugh at each other’s jokes.

Actually I think they’ll definitely do that.
I have an alternative imagination at what might happen, but if I describe it here you'll be putting me on notice ;)
 

Busaholic

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Maybe they’ll just gaze at each other lovingly and laugh at each other’s jokes.

Actually I think they’ll definitely do that.
All they need is Putin to join them, and they could all die laughing. If only....
 

birchesgreen

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The only surprise with Trump returning to Twitter is why it took so long since Musk unlocked his account. Probably helped that Musk is also donating a metric ****ton of cash to Trump's campaign. All the while Truth Social isn't faring so well, financially speaking.
Well Musk said he was, its not clear he actually has.
 

ainsworth74

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I remember seeing a documentary on Trump that Emily Maitlis did a couple of years before he announced his presidency and he seemed more erm... maybe not normal but certainly less agitated and more calm than he is now.
I absolutely think if you compare Trump from even four or five years ago to now, he's clearly suffering some sort mental decline. And yes, he's never been the brightest spark, but seriously go and look up footage of him talking to the media or even speaking at one of his rallies with the same thing now and he is a very different character.
 

bahnause

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I absolutely think if you compare Trump from even four or five years ago to now, he's clearly suffering some sort mental decline. And yes, he's never been the brightest spark, but seriously go and look up footage of him talking to the media or even speaking at one of his rallies with the same thing now and he is a very different character.
As long as he can repeat the same lies over and over again (mostly unchallenged) without making too many mistakes, his supporters won't notice or simply won't care.
 

ainsworth74

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As long as he can repeat the same lies over and over again (mostly unchallenged) without making too many mistakes, his supporters won't notice or simply won't care.
Oh absolutely, but they're lost to us. It's the sliver of undecideds that we still need to see sense.
 

sannox

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I absolutely think if you compare Trump from even four or five years ago to now, he's clearly suffering some sort mental decline. And yes, he's never been the brightest spark, but seriously go and look up footage of him talking to the media or even speaking at one of his rallies with the same thing now and he is a very different character.

He's not far off 80 so no surprises. Trump was doing so well because Biden was a liability due to his age. Trump has fallen into the same issue - people are now focussing on his gaffes and age, and in polls, increasing numbers say he's too old.
 
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