Services to Northampton

[Mgameing123]

Though given there will be MK Central to Oxford services, the interchange could easily be there instead of Bletchley. Demand for Northampton - Bedford travel is miniscule.

We still need to provide interchange towards Bedford.

Which services are being cancelled to speed it up?

Well when Avanti moves most of their trains on HS2 then we got a lot of room to work with.

 

[William3000]

It is really quite obvious. As others have explained MK has more jobs that attract commuters. I know many people who work in MK but live in Northampton. They either drive or use the train to get to work. People aren't commuting into Northampton in the same way.

Put simply MK has more company head office/HQ type offices ( not just those mentioned above but off the top of my head Argos, Mercedes, VW, Deloites, Dentons) which pull in a lot of professional people, from a wide area, by both train and car. Some will come by bus but not that many. Northampton doesn't (outside Nationwide and Barclaycard) have the same level of these jobs or companies located there.

I would also venture that more people live in Northampton because it is ( or perhaps was) much cheaper than other areas for housing. I have been here for 15 years now and Northampton was the affordable London commuter boundary for a long time. It is now further north.

Even with that the demand for commuting (pre covid) was satisfied by the service offered. It wasn't a drag on usage!


Bedford direction is another one. Hopefully E > W Pick both up


Knowing the area is not enough to base an opinion on


lets not get carried away!

No they are not, at least not beyond long term idea generation. A what could we do IF session I suspect.

I can only advise what I’ve been told - they may be wrong of course but my understanding is that the emerging plan is for 2 Birmingham NS to Cambridge and 2 Oxford to Cambridge.

 

[The Planner]

I can only advise what I’ve been told - they may be wrong of course but my understanding is that the emerging plan is for 2 Birmingham NS to Cambridge and 2 Oxford to Cambridge.

There is no capacity for that.

 

[zwk500]

We still need to provide interchange towards Bedford.

And there will be, with EWR MK-Bletchley will have a turn up and go frequency.

Well when Avanti moves most of their trains on HS2 then we got a lot of room to work with.

More, but not necessarily a lot more. I have no idea what the current state of the plan is, but HS2 were apparently proposing this (according to Modern Railway in 2020):

Which suggests 2 Avanti and 1 or even 2 freight an hour to work around between New Street and Rugby.

I can only advise what I’ve been told - they may be wrong of course but my understanding is that the emerging plan is for 2 Birmingham NS to Cambridge and 2 Oxford to Cambridge.

Would you mind saying who/what/where/how you were told, and what timescales they were talking about?

 

[A0]

We still need to provide interchange towards Bedford.

Why? The Northampton - Bedford flow is tiny - there is a direct bus and the option of travelling via Wellingborough or using the X5 bus from outside MK Central station (which is no slower than going to Bletchley and using the Marston Vale currently).

Maybe sometime in the 2040's *if* the Cambridge extension is ever built it might be worth looking at again, but currently Northampton - Bedford as a flow is irrelevant and not worth worrying about.

 

[DarloRich]

I can only advise what I’ve been told - they may be wrong of course but my understanding is that the emerging plan is for 2 Birmingham NS to Cambridge and 2 Oxford to Cambridge.

not anytime soon - the route from Bletchley towards Cambridge isn't even defined or funded.

 

[A0]

I can only advise what I’ve been told - they may be wrong of course but my understanding is that the emerging plan is for 2 Birmingham NS to Cambridge and 2 Oxford to Cambridge.

You might have to provide something a bit more credible than "a mate told me".

Given the constraints on the WCML both now and post HS2, it is difficult to see how a Birmingham - Cambridge via Northampton is a serious proposal. Indeed it's not much of a journey time improvement on the current Birmingham - Leicester - Peterboro - Cambridge (2h 45m) - on the basis Birmingham - Bletchley via Northampton will be circa 90 mins and Bletchley - Cambridge circa 60 mins total 2h 30m.

If you wanted to accelerate Birmingham - Cambridge journey times, there are probably other ways of doing that e.g. sorting out Ely, line speed improvements Leicester - Peterboro' and Peterboro - Cambridge the latter of those being 75mph currently, possibly electrification and new stock which is better accelerating than the now 25 year old Turbostars.

 

[Merle Haggard]

And there will be, with EWR MK-Bletchley will have a turn up and go frequency.

More, but not necessarily a lot more. I have no idea what the current state of the plan is, but HS2 were apparently proposing this (according to Modern Railway in 2020):

Obviously from the days before it was demonstrated empirically that running all stations Euston - Liverpool and - Rugeley doesn't work in the real railway world but presumably the service pattern South of Northampton will still be the same as above post-HS2 so applying logic (always dangerous)

If someone suggests a fast Northampton to London service the operators' answer is 'no paths!'
If someone says that HS2 does provide a much faster service the operators' answer is 'it's not about speed, it's about freeing up more paths on the WCML!'

Taking the above two propositions together, perhaps someone can say why, if paths are freed up by HS2 - see second line reasoning - there are still no paths for fast Northampton trains - see first line reasoning. I expect there to be a good operating reason.

 

[Mgameing123]

Why? The Northampton - Bedford flow is tiny - there is a direct bus and the option of travelling via Wellingborough or using the X5 bus from outside MK Central station (which is no slower than going to Bletchley and using the Marston Vale currently).

Maybe sometime in the 2040's *if* the Cambridge extension is ever built it might be worth looking at again, but currently Northampton - Bedford as a flow s irrelevant and not worth worrying about.

Considering this service will stop at Watford Junction there is a good chance to generate demand heading to Bedford & Oxford.

Obviously from the days before it was demonstrated empirically that running all stations Euston - Liverpool and - Rugeley doesn't work in the real railway world but presumably the service pattern South of Northampton will still be the same as above post-HS2 so applying logic (always dangerous)

If someone suggests a fast Northampton to London service the operators' answer is 'no paths!'
If someone says that HS2 does provide a much faster service the operators' answer is 'it's not about speed, it's about freeing up more paths on the WCML!'

Taking the above two propositions together, perhaps someone can say why, if paths are freed up by HS2 - see second line reasoning - there are still no paths for fast Northampton trains - see first line reasoning. I expect there to be a good operating reason.

a fast Northampton service shouldn't even be fully fast. It should stop at Wolverton, Milton Keynes Central, Bletchley & Watford Junction. Trains could maybe stop at Wembley Stadium on event days.

 

[JW4]

Trains could maybe stop at Wembley Stadium on event days.

How would you do that?

 

[zwk500]

Trains could maybe stop at Wembley Stadium on event days.

Only if you demolish the Over-Station Development (plus a bit more) and rebuild the station from scratch

 

[A0]

Considering this service will stop at Watford Junction there is a good chance to generate demand heading to Bedford & Oxford.

Watford - Bedford is even more marginal than Northampton - Bedford, which is saying something.

Watford - Oxford isn't likely to be significant and an easement allowing interchange at MK Central would easily address this with a minimal (<10 min) journey time penalty.

 

[A S Leib]

Watford - Oxford isn't likely to be significant and an easement allowing interchange at MK Central would easily address this with a minimal (<10 min) journey time penalty.

Going off of the paths in RTT from December, via Winslow's ~1:30 with 15 minutes at Bletchley, so 20+ minutes faster than via London (with 30 minutes between reaching Euston and leaving Paddington), and I suspect that route will be cheaper. That doesn't necessarily mean that the market now, either via Harrow & Wealdstone or the M40, is massive.

 

[Mgameing123]

Watford - Bedford is even more marginal than Northampton - Bedford, which is saying something.

Watford - Oxford isn't likely to be significant and an easement allowing interchange at MK Central would easily address this with a minimal (<10 min) journey time penalty.

In the future when demand grows and with faster journey times there would be potential for a market. Forcing people to backtrack at Milton Keynes will only encourage people to drive.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Looking at the bigger picture, how many passengers from any of the Trent Valley stations actually want to travel to Northampton?

From places like Lichfield and Tamworth (just the local populations), not that many, I agree.
But the service when routed via Northampton (which is what this thread is about) must have been hugely useful for placs like Stafford, Crewe and Stoke, and for pax changing at Tamworth from the East Midlands and Sheffield-Leeds etc.

For the minority that do, changing at Rugby is no hardship.

a) It never ceases to amaze me how people on this forum think changing trains is easy peasy for others.

Yes, many take it in their stride on a daily basis (certainly on here). Indeed, I would have not worries doig this from a Trent valley station and going to Northampton.

But for many not used to it (including foreign visitors) it can be very daunting, easily enough to force them to choose another mode of transport, most likely family driver +car. I know this, because Mrs Duke is exactly one of those people.

b) The same RailUK people with the above attitude invariably think of journeys with just one change, when, for example, the loss of direct services to Northampton (from, say, Sheffield or Hull) will necessitate two or even three changes - enough to put even those acquainted with UK rail travel into cars.

Removing Northampton, making every service 8 car and the good value fares have made LNWR's Trent Valley services a very attractive option that'll only improve even more when the 350/2's are gone.

I wouldn't deny that. I would deny removing Northampton makes connectivity to the town far less attractive though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

a fast Northampton service shouldn't even be fully fast. It should stop at Wolverton, Milton Keynes Central, Bletchley & Watford Junction. Trains could maybe stop at Wembley Stadium on event days.

You mean very similar to the one that does operate? (Add Leighton Buzzard, and remove Watford from 1 of the 2).

 

[Mgameing123]

You mean very similar to the one that does operate? (Add Leighton Buzzard, and remove Watford from 1 of the 2).

WMT shouldn't really be skipping Watford. Leighton Buzzard can have other services.

 

[Russel]

WMT shouldn't really be skipping Watford. Leighton Buzzard can have other services.

Watford has a frequent Overground service, why slow WMT services down by calling there?

 

[Kite159]

Watford has a frequent Overground service, why slow WMT services down by calling there?

Watford might have 4tph of Overground but hardly anybody will use them going end to end due to the time penalty

And for passengers heading north from Watford, do you expect them to have to travel ~ 50 minutes on the all station service to Euston to jump on a service passing Watford 15 minutes later? What an advert for the private car.

 

[A S Leib]

Watford has a frequent Overground service, why slow WMT services down by calling there?

Because there's 180,000+ journeys per year between Watford Junction and stations north of Tring; more than between Euston and Wolverhampton or Stafford (as well as the reasons mentioned in Post 199).

 

[A0]

But for many not used to it (including foreign visitors) it can be very daunting, easily enough to force them to choose another mode of transport, most likely family driver +car. I know this, because Mrs Duke is exactly one of those people.

I doubt foreign visitors, unfamiliar with the UK's roads will be more inclined to hire a car because the train journey means a change en route. Let's be honest they've probably had to board a flight - if they can navigate Heathrow Airport successfuloy then changing platform at a small or medium (i.e. fewer than 6 platform) station shouldn't be too troubling.

b) The same RailUK people with the above attitude invariably think of journeys with just one change, when, for example, the loss of direct services to Northampton (from, say, Sheffield or Hull) will necessitate two or even three changes - enough to put even those acquainted with UK rail travel into cars.

There are quite a few posters around here who "over egg" their arguments by citing fringe cases which affect a tiny number of people and which don't stand scrutiny - an example above.

 

[Russel]

What an advert for the private car.

To be fair, there isn't much the railway does that isn't an advert for the private car...

 

[cle]

Watford has a frequent Overground service, why slow WMT services down by calling there?

I think this was a glib retort to the Leighton Buzzard comment. Which in turn wasn’t a judgement but a “it is basically like this today if you add X and remove Y”

Nothing to see here.

But yes Watford is of course a much more important stop than Leighton Buzzard and should be served accordingly. It’s busier than MKC, and should at least have Manchester services restored.

 

[Bletchleyite]

WMT shouldn't really be skipping Watford. Leighton Buzzard can have other services.

It is a matter of practicality due to fast line pathing. The services could be put on the slows but would be about 20 minutes slower as a result. I don't think doubling Leighton's London journey time just so Northampton passengers save 2-3 minutes would be fair or sensible.

Bletchley could more easily be dropped as you can connect at Leighton, but it is about to get a lot more important with East West Rail, and the impression I have is that having it makes the overall service more punctual because it makes crew reliefs easier because they don't need to go up to MKC to swap over from Bletchley depot where they are based. Indeed in disruption before those Bletchley stops were inserted they sometimes ended up stopping anyway to pick up a new crew.

The present south WCML timetable is really extremely well designed. What you think is a small tweak would make the whole thing fall over.

But yes Watford is of course a much more important stop than Leighton Buzzard and should be served accordingly. It’s busier than MKC, and should at least have Manchester services restored.

It's busier than MKC for journeys to London. That doesn't mean demand to Manchester would be higher. Of course, it could have Manchester services back (and NMP could have some fasts) if we just build HS2!

Without HS2 it's just not practical. The present timetable is incredibly well designed to get the best outcomes from limited capacity.

 

[A0]

But yes Watford is of course a much more important stop than Leighton Buzzard and should be served accordingly. It’s busier than MKC, and should at least have Manchester services restored.

That's a total non sequitur - they serve totally different markets.

Watford's traffic will overwhelmingly be to and from London. It is a London commuter town right on the periphery of the London boundary.

MK is a regional centre for the south Midlands, it has significant flows to/from the West Midlands and the North West as well as a sizeable London commuter flow.

The number of people wanting to travel between Watford and Coventry / Birmingham or Watford and Manchester on a daily basis will be tiny. The numbers travelling between MK and Coventry / Birmingham or MK and Manchester is much greater and that's not just due to the train services, its due to the number of major companies with either regional or head offices based there - MK has, among others, Network Rail, Santander, BP, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Scania. The only ones I can think of in Watford are Wetherspoons and TJX Group (the parent of TK Max).

 

[A0]

Bletchley could more easily be dropped as you can connect at Leighton, but it is about to get a lot more important with East West Rail,

Another non sequitur.

The number of people travelling from Northampton to Bedford isn't huge, the number doing so using the Marston Vale line is vanishingly small.

There is more likely to be demand generated for travel to Oxford by EWR and given EWR will be running MK to Oxford services, the change from Northampton could be made there, which is a better station to change at in any case.

 

[Mgameing123]

Another non sequitur.

The number of people travelling from Northampton to Bedford isn't huge, the number doing so using the Marston Vale line is vanishingly small.

There is more likely to be demand generated for travel to Oxford by EWR and given EWR will be running MK to Oxford services, the change from Northampton could be made there, which is a better station to change at in any case.

It would be better to change at Bletchley as service frequency from there is much higher than at MKC.

 

[cle]

It is a matter of practicality due to fast line pathing. The services could be put on the slows but would be about 20 minutes slower as a result. I don't think doubling Leighton's London journey time just so Northampton passengers save 2-3 minutes would be fair or sensible.

Bletchley could more easily be dropped as you can connect at Leighton, but it is about to get a lot more important with East West Rail, and the impression I have is that having it makes the overall service more punctual because it makes crew reliefs easier because they don't need to go up to MKC to swap over from Bletchley depot where they are based. Indeed in disruption before those Bletchley stops were inserted they sometimes ended up stopping anyway to pick up a new crew.

The present south WCML timetable is really extremely well designed. What you think is a small tweak would make the whole thing fall over.



It's busier than MKC for journeys to London. That doesn't mean demand to Manchester would be higher. Of course, it could have Manchester services back (and NMP could have some fasts) if we just build HS2!

Without HS2 it's just not practical. The present timetable is incredibly well designed to get the best outcomes from limited capacity.

I understand the historical reasons why. But next major timetable change, it could be looked at.

I think Watford demand to Manchester would be organically (ie if services similarly) much higher than from MKC. It was always a big north / north of London railhead. Competitor also being the M1, vs cannibalizing Euston double-backs or MKC connections. This outer mob is a car mob, so arguably it’s even more important for modal shift than inner London types. And flying is dead beyond BA connections.

I’d even suggest that these days it’s more important than a Birmingham Pendo call, but that is well established. I’d say the Crewe/Wilmslow tph, to give a fast Watford-Crewe link too. Watford-Stoke probably negligible.

 

[A0]

It would be better to change at Bletchley as service frequency from there is much higher than at MKC.

Depends on the wait time - if the wait time at MK is only ~5 minutes, but longer at Bletchley then no. Also it would probably be cross / same platform at Milton Keynes Central (assuming the Oxfords use the bay platform and the Northampton has arrived on the slows) whereas the "extra" services at Bletchley which will be to / from Bedford will be on the high level platforms which are further away.

I'd always choose MK to make such a change over Bletchley as it's nicer, more convenient and as the Oxford will start there, will almost guarantee getting a seat as well.

 

[A0]

I understand the historical reasons why. But next major timetable change, it could be looked at.

I think Watford demand to Manchester would be organically (ie if services similarly) much higher than from MKC. It was always a big north / north of London railhead. Competitor also being the M1, vs cannibalizing Euston double-backs or MKC connections. This outer mob is a car mob, so arguably it’s even more important for modal shift than inner London types. And flying is dead beyond BA connections.

I’d even suggest that these days it’s more important than a Birmingham Pendo call, but that is well established. I’d say the Crewe/Wilmslow tph, to give a fast Watford-Crewe link too. Watford-Stoke probably negligible.

Watford is terrible to drive to and park at.

The only places it makes a "better" railhead for than MK on the M1 corridor are Hemel and St Albans and that's because they're neighbouring towns. Once you get to Luton or Dunstable it is easily quicker to drive to Milton Keynes, especially in the morning rush as you're against the flow if the traffic.

If you move over to the A1 corridor, from Welwyn, Stevenage or Hitchin, MK is again, quicker to get to than Watford.

South of Watford, for the relatively few making the journey, the time penalty of going via Euston is negligble - fast trains into Euston from Watford take 20 mins. Whereas to drive Watford to Manchester right now on a Sunday afternoon will, according to Google Maps take 3.5 hours, and you can safely add 30-60 minutes to that doing it on a weekday which touches the rush hour.