Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[DustyBin]

Trump has a plan. It's likely not a very good or a very detailed plan though...

As an example, China may be unconcerned with Trump upping the % rate of U.S. tariffs if the value of their currency falls, making exports less expensive before the tariff rate is applied.

One theory is that Trump wants to weaken the USD to help tackle the trade deficit. As you say though, that’s not necessarily a good plan and may backfire if the CNY is weakened in the process.

 

[uglymonkey]

We have " The men in grey suits" that had a quiet word with Thatcher and Truss at certain points. Has the US anything similar to remove Trump if he goes full on gaga or otherwise ( is there a vote of no confidence? or similar?), or are we stuck with him ( the world) until the next election or I'll health decide?

 

[brad465]

We have " The men in grey suits" that had a quiet word with Thatcher and Truss at certain points. Has the US anything similar to remove Trump if he goes full on gaga or otherwise ( is there a vote of no confidence? or similar?), or are we stuck with him ( the world) until the next election or I'll health decide?

Only a full impeachment leading to a conviction by the Senate would remove him. But this requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate, so even a small number of Republican rebels isn't enough. Perhaps there are "men in grey suits" in GOP congress, similar to how Nixon saw the writing on the wall and there were many voices who pressured Biden not to run again, but when it comes to Trump, anyone pressuring him to resign is signing a death sentence on their time in an elected position.

 

[sannox]

The real question is: where are the investments going to come from that Trump keeps talking about? Apple is cash rich and can afford to spend big in the US, but how many other companies can say the same?

Except they aren't planning to 'bring work home to the US' but they are talking of iPhones being done in India.

We have " The men in grey suits" that had a quiet word with Thatcher and Truss at certain points. Has the US anything similar to remove Trump if he goes full on gaga or otherwise ( is there a vote of no confidence? or similar?), or are we stuck with him ( the world) until the next election or I'll health decide?

This hasn't significantly turned people in the US because it is theoretical now- see Trumps approval being steady if not higher on tariffs. Yes, many are angry and many money men are unhappy, but those lower income workers, blue collar workers who supported Trump still believe this will bring good jobs back to America and the 'suits and fat cats on Wall Street' are part of the problem. The pain and reality of tariffs hasn't hit yet.

 

[gg1]

Only a full impeachment leading to a conviction by the Senate would remove him. But this requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate, so even a small number of Republican rebels isn't enough. Perhaps there are "men in grey suits" in GOP congress, similar to how Nixon saw the writing on the wall and there were many voices who pressured Biden not to run again, but when it comes to Trump, anyone pressuring him to resign is signing a death sentence on their time in an elected position.

The 25th amendment also allows him to be removed if the Vice President and a majority of the 15 member cabinet agree he's "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office", a pattern of erratic, unstable behaviour would meet the criteria.

The major problem with either that or impeachment is we'd then have President Vance who's given no indication he would be any better than Trump, he could easily end up being even worse.

 

[Cloud Strife]

If the polls indicate that Americans have switched to hating Trump, the Republicans could be in deep trouble in the mid term elections in less than two years time.

I also wouldn't underestimate the power of corporate America. If companies like Nike see that they're suffering catastrophic falls in sales because of the tariffs making their products unaffordable, then they're going to pour money into Democrat candidates. We've already seen the Republicans outspent in Florida, and there is some very interesting data from the special elections showing that the Republicans are not in a very comfortable place.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/06/politics/florida-wisconsin-turnout-special-elections/index.html

While Republicans worry about turning out their lower-propensity base, Tuesday’s elections also flashed another warning sign: the potential for considerable crossover vote, with Republican voters casting ballots for Democratic candidates.

I'd also add that a lot of these big corporate brands rely on poorer, lower-information voters spending beyond their means to obtain their products. If these products are now going to cost 1.5-2 times more, they're not going to be able to afford them, even with the easy credit culture of the US.

 

[Cowley]

On the drive to work this morning and after listening the constant roar of The Trump Show being discussed on various podcasts this last few weeks. Is it possible that all of the trade tariff business is a partial smokescreen for what he really wants to do, which is to considerably weaken China?

If he’s throwing tariffs around left, right and centre, he’s able to hide who the real attack is aimed at by pointing to all of the other countries he’s stitching up at the same time. On some levels China is already starting to struggle and he might see this as the one and only opportunity to turn the tide back in favour of the USA.

No idea. Just a thought really?

 

[ainsworth74]

Well, not everyone agrees:

Link to The Guardian article

Whilst I would rather none of this was happening and we had boring broadly continuity Biden in the form of Harris, there is a certain satisfaction in watching all these right wing oligarchic billionaires fighting amongst themselves like rights in sack now that their "every dream" has come true and turned out that it's not all that they thought it'd be.

 

[Annetts key]

On the drive to work this morning and after listening the constant roar of The Trump Show being discussed on various podcasts this last few weeks. Is it possible that all of the trade tariff business is a partial smokescreen for what he really wants to do, which is to considerably weaken China?

If he’s throwing tariffs around left, right and centre, he’s able to hide who the real attack is aimed at by pointing to all of the other countries he’s stitching up at the same time. On some levels China is already starting to struggle and he might see this as the one and only opportunity to turn the tide back in favour of the USA.

No idea. Just a thought really?

The counter argument is that Trump is a fool and China is taking advantage of this fool. Because now after being subjected to tariffs, China can use this as an excuse and really screw the U.S.A. in various ways. Cutting off supplies of vital raw materials, parts and components while at the same time switching to imports from other countries instead of the U.S.A. will wreak havoc on the American industries and economy.

Remember, Trump's view that America has been treated unfairly in world wide trade is a long held belief, it's not new. Neither are tariffs new for Trump.

 

[AlterEgo]

On the drive to work this morning and after listening the constant roar of The Trump Show being discussed on various podcasts this last few weeks. Is it possible that all of the trade tariff business is a partial smokescreen for what he really wants to do, which is to considerably weaken China?

If he’s throwing tariffs around left, right and centre, he’s able to hide who the real attack is aimed at by pointing to all of the other countries he’s stitching up at the same time. On some levels China is already starting to struggle and he might see this as the one and only opportunity to turn the tide back in favour of the USA.

No idea. Just a thought really?

Trump isn’t capable of 4D chess. If he’s doing stupid and vain things it’s because he’s stupid and vain and surrounded by similar people.

 

[brad465]

Full marks to the user who made this comment on the BBC this morning about the current situation:


(Comment in image reads: "It's all a massive tit for tat battle. China are supplying the tat. America are supplying the massive tit.")

 

[Yew]

One theory is that Trump wants to weaken the USD to help tackle the trade deficit. As you say though, that’s not necessarily a good plan and may backfire if the CNY is weakened in the process.

There is probably some merit in the idea that the dollar is overvalued, and would probably be beneficial to get it down in value a bit. That being said, there are more conventional ways to do that.

 

[brad465]

China now going for 84% tariffs on US imports, they are definitely prepared to go long on this:

Trump says he is open to talks after hiking China tariffs to 125%

"Xi is a smart guy and we'll end up making a very good deal," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

www.bbc.co.uk

China retaliates with 84% tariffs on US goods
​

China's finance ministry has announced an 84% tariff on all goods imported from the US.

The ministry says that these new charges will take effect from 12:01 CST (05:00 BST) on 10 April.

 

[najaB]

We have " The men in grey suits" that had a quiet word with Thatcher and Truss at certain points. Has the US anything similar to remove Trump if he goes full on gaga or otherwise ( is there a vote of no confidence? or similar?), or are we stuck with him ( the world) until the next election or I'll health decide?

The equivalent is section 4 of the the 25th Amendment:

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

So they need to not only be in grey suits, they also need to be in the room.

 

[zero]

Anyone have any investments that are plummeting? Wonder when it'll be great again.

On a similar note, anyone checked their pension over the last couple of days?

I wish I hadn't. One is down 7% compared to a month ago, the other is down almost 13% compared to January.

Another that wishes they hadn't checked it. Down 10% since January

Down 7% since January. Painful for the old pension!

The value of the stock market has dropped by around 10% since January, but everyone seems to be conveniently forgetting that this rise only took less than a year. Markets go up and down. The FTSE 100 and S&P500 are still both higher than they were at the start of 2024 - and back then plenty of people thought they were already peaking.

Over the past 5 years the FTSE 100 is still up 33% and the S&P500 is still up 80%. This is slightly biased because exactly 5 years ago was the covid slump. (FTSE 100 stocks also tend to pay out dividends so the percentage increase doesn't accurately reflect the whole return.) But even if you had invested at the highest valuations just before covid, you would still be well up compared to keeping cash in a bank account.


While it's not great for people who planned to start retirement over the next year or so, conventional wisdom would have advised transitioning to more defensive assets starting from at least 5 years before the planned retirement date anyway, which would have mitigated some of the losses (or rather just reduced the overall gains). A big crash can be 40-50% drop from the peak and historically this is to be expected several times during a typical working life of 30-40 years.

 

[najaB]

While it's not great for people who planned to start retirement over the next year or so, conventional wisdom would have advised transitioning to more defensive assets starting from at least 5 years before the planned retirement date anyway, which would have mitigated some of the losses (or rather just reduced the overall gains). A big crash can be 40-50% drop from the peak and historically this is to be expected several times during a typical working life of 30-40 years.

Oh, that goes without saying and I specifically moved my investments into higher-risk funds with the intention to move them to more stable funds in ten years or so. However, the reason that this stands out is because, unlike other crashes/devaluations such as 2008 and 2020, this was due to the completely avoidable and unnecessary actions of a single person.

 

[DustyBin]

There is probably some merit in the idea that the dollar is overvalued, and would probably be beneficial to get it down in value a bit. That being said, there are more conventional ways to do that.

I don’t think Trump does conventional! In principle though it’s not entirely without merit as you say.

One potential positive from all this that a fall in oil prices will hit Russia’s economy particularly hard.

 

[brad465]

Trump making Liz Truss look like a genius:

Trump tariffs spark US government debt sell-off

The cost of borrowing for the US government rose as confidence in the economy waned

www.bbc.co.uk

Confidence in the US economy is plummeting as investors dumped government debt amid escalating concerns over the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs.
The interest rate on US bonds - traditionally considered a "safe haven" investment in times of crisis - spiked on Wednesday to touch the highest since February.
Sweeping taxes on goods being imported into the US from around 60 countries came into effect at midnight, while a tit-for-tat trade war between America and China gathered pace.
After the US went ahead with a 104% tariff on products from China, Beijing hit back with 84% levy on American products.
Stock markets have been falling sharply over the past few days in reaction to Trump pressing ahead with tariffs.
However, the sale of bonds - which are essentially an IOU issued by a government to raise money from financial markets - poses a major problem for the world's biggest economy.
Buying US government debt, or Treasuries as they are known, is viewed as a safe investment because the state will pay back what it owes.
But on Wednesday, the yield - or interest rate - on US bonds touched the highest level since February at 4.5%, making it more expensive for America to borrow money.
Some analysts suggested that the US Federal Reserve might be forced to step in if turbulence continues, in a move reminiscent of the Bank of England's emergency action in 2022 following Liz Truss's mini-Budget.
"We see no other option for the Fed but to step in with emergency purchases of US Treasuries to stabilise the bond market," said George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank.
"We are entering uncharted territory," he said, adding that it was "very hard" to predict how markets would react in the coming days as the bond market suggested investors had "lost faith in US assets".

 

[Magdalia]

Trump making Liz Truss look like a genius

As with Truss, what happens in the government bond market is a more significant market move than what is happening in shares and currencies. As the BBC article states, big falls in share prices are usually accompanied by a flight into US treasury bonds, and that's not happening now. There is more here:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-tariffs-bonds-2025-04-09/

SINGAPORE, LONDON April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries, the bedrock of the global financial system, were hit by fresh selling pressure on Wednesday in a sign that investors were dumping their safest assets as turmoil unleashed by U.S. tariffs prompts forced selling and a dash for cash.
The dollar, also a traditional safe haven, weakened against other major currencies in further evidence that confidence in the world's biggest economy has been shaken.

In particular this movement in long dated bonds:

Thirty-year Treasury yields rose 20 bps to 4.92%. They have surged 53 bps over three days, their biggest three-day jump since 1982 .

I'm hoping to work out a way of finding out what happens in these US bond auctions later today. I don't know what time these happen.

Soft demand for the U.S. Treasury's $58 billion auction of three-year notes fuelled worries about tepid interest in the $39 billion sale of 10-year notes and a $22 billion auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday.

 

[Russel]

...this was due to the completely avoidable and unnecessary actions of a single person.

As with Putin, it's scary to think how much damage can be done by one man.

 

[Senex]

As with Putin, it's scary to think how much damage can be done by one man.

In both cases their populations voted for them in large numbers. The trouble is, we all have to live with the consequences.

But if anyone asked who in the long term would turn out to be the shrewder political-chess player, the USA of China, I wouldn't put money on the USA.

 

[najaB]

In both cases their populations voted for them in large numbers. The trouble is, we all have to live with the consequences.

At least the Russians have the excuse that it was a choice between Putin or defenestration...

 

[brad465]

Now paused reciprocal tariffs (everything above 10%) for 90 days, but jacked up the Chinese rate to 125%:

Trump says he is open to talks after hiking China tariffs to 125%

"Xi is a smart guy and we'll end up making a very good deal," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

www.bbc.co.uk

As we've just reported, Donald Trump has raised tariffs against China to 125%, and also issued a 90 day pause to some tariffs.

Here's his Truth Social statement in full:

"Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately.

At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.

"Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

We are continuing to decipher the specifics of Trump's announcement, stick with us for the latest.

Markets have rallied in response. At this point, even if only a by-product, we must be looking at the most naked example of market manipulation in the history of stock markets.

 

[sor]

and in the process, disproving the whole "point" of the tariffs. what company is going to move manufacturing "back" to the US when the tariff seems to change hour by hour?

I suppose the big question is which countries/blocs Trump considers to be retaliating. Will the EU be taken down to 10% (brexiteers in shambles) or will it be deemed worthy of a hike?

 

[RichJF]

Feels like a petulant, idiotic child in charge of one of the world's largest economies.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Now paused reciprocal tariffs (everything above 10%) for 90 days, but jacked up the Chinese rate to 125%:

Trump says he is open to talks after hiking China tariffs to 125%

"Xi is a smart guy and we'll end up making a very good deal," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

www.bbc.co.uk

Markets have rallied in response. At this point, even if only a by-product, we must be looking at the most naked example of market manipulation in the history of stock markets.

Possibly but there has been massive selling of long dated treasuries last few days which is indicator of distress in the mkt somewhere as traders/hedge funds rush to cover their positions and Trump could have been told if one of them implode its game over. I suspect Chinese will also make an overture before the week is out and we will be back all square.

 

[Gloster]

Possibly but there has been massive selling of long dated treasuries last few days which is indicator of distress in the mkt somewhere as traders/hedge funds rush to cover their positions and Trump could have been told if one of them implode its game over. I suspect Chinese will also make an overture before the week is out and we will be back all square.

But we won’t be back all square: there will always be the fear of what Trump might do next.

 

[Howardh]

Let me get this right. He imposes tariffs and the markets crash. He tells his rich mates to buy shares right now, then he drops his tariffs and the market recovers. So those newly bought shares increase in value immediately.

I'd call that convenient I'd also call it another word beginning with C.

But well done to the penguins for holding out!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Let me get this right. He imposes tariffs and the markets crash. He tells his rich mates to buy shares right now, then he drops his tariffs and the market recovers. So those newly bought shares increase in value immediately.

It's one way of looking at it, but I think that the more likely scenario is that he simply couldn't handle the heat. The stock market was in real trouble, and when China started leading the way by standing up to him, his advisers would have been very clear that they couldn't afford a flat out trade war with the rest of the world.

I suspect that the 10% tariff will simply be paid by the American consumers, and Trump will claim it as a win while barely anything will change in terms of manufacturing in the US.

 

[Magdalia]

When Mohamed El-Erian is interviewed on Radio 4 I drop everything to listen. Here is a bit of what he said at lunchtime, pasted from the BBC live news feed:

Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO tells BBC Radio 4's World at One that the recent sell off in US government bonds is "very unusual".

"When there is a sell-off in the stock market... you would expect yields to come down. but as you've just pointed out, yields have gone up," he says.

Part of the reason, he explains, is the "erosion of [US] Treasuries as a safe haven".

He adds: "The dollar will remain the reserve currency, but its impact, its influence, its reach, will be much less if this continues. It is an incredible privilege, to use the famous historical word, to be the reserve currency.

"But if you don't act responsibly, then other countries are going to slowly withdraw that privilege from you."

But we won’t be back all square: there will always be the fear of what Trump might do next.

The US can't get back to all square because of the damage it has already done to its status as reserve currency and the erosion of the status of US Treasury Bonds as a safe haven.