Why so many delays on the WCML every day?

[cambsy]

I have done a Euston to Glasgow return today(25th June) with a number of delays, from a trespasser costing us 10 mins, which lucky, to then after being 10 mins late, a freight allowed in front of us from Lockerbie area all the way to near making us 25 mins late, then coming back being put on slow lines from Winsford to Stafford. I quite often follow how the WCML is doing on RTT, and have noticed pretty much every day there seems to be a litany of delays. So it got me wandering whats the cause of this? It seems to me its a mixture of tight timetabling and too hard pushed infrastructure so there no give if anything happens.

 

[EC54]

Unfortunately on our antiquated railway sysrem everything that you have pointed to that caused the delays wii be there for many years to come, Nothing will change in our lifetimes. You travel on our railway system with fingers crossed every day.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

So it got me wandering whats the cause of this? It seems to me its a mixture of tight timetabling and too hard pushed infrastructure so there no give if anything happens.

Think, to a greater or lesser extent, you've answered your own question there, particularly so on a long distance train service!

 

[The Planner]

Europes busiest mixed traffic railway.

 

[MerlinRail 804]

Surely the tight timetabling is the root of quite a lot of it. If the timings had a couple minutes of allowances or something then surely that would mean more trains pass conflict points on time and so don’t delay other services? Obviously doesn’t solve everything but I feel like that would help a bit?

 

[hexagon789]

Surely the tight timetabling is the root of quite a lot of it. If the timings had a couple minutes of allowances or something then surely that would mean more trains pass conflict points on time and so don’t delay other services? Obviously doesn’t solve everything but I feel like that would help a bit?

They already have various allowances in the schedules - the average Euston to Glasgow has about 14/15 mins of engineering and pathing allowances for instance.

 

[MerlinRail 804]

They already have various allowances in the schedules - the average Euston to Glasgow has about 14/15 mins of engineering and pathing allowances for instance.

Not taking it as gospel but every time I try to drive a pendo from Euston to MK on TSW at full speed the whole way, leaving Euston on time, I generally pull in to MK roughly 30s - 1 min late.
Ideally surely driving at full speed for a journey of that length should arrive at least a minute early?

 

[Class15]

Not taking it as gospel but every time I try to drive a pendo from Euston to MK on TSW at full speed the whole way, leaving Euston on time, I generally pull in to MK roughly 30s - 1 min late.
Ideally surely driving at full speed for a journey of that length should arrive at least a minute early?

TSW is not likely to be an accurate measure of real life.

 

[MerlinRail 804]

TSW is not likely to be an accurate measure of real life.

Of course, however RTT does seem to paint a similar story

 

[hexagon789]

Not taking it as gospel but every time I try to drive a pendo from Euston to MK on TSW at full speed the whole way, leaving Euston on time, I generally pull in to MK roughly 30s - 1 min late.
Ideally surely driving at full speed for a journey of that length should arrive at least a minute early?

Having seen how wrong some of the speeds are in Classic TS on some routes I'd suggest firstly they may be wrong in TSW.

Alternatively the performance isn't correct. I often find the braking can be quite off in particular. To say nothing of the poor simulation of the effects of gradients, particularly shallower ones of less than say 1 in 150.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not taking it as gospel but every time I try to drive a pendo from Euston to MK on TSW at full speed the whole way, leaving Euston on time, I generally pull in to MK roughly 30s - 1 min late.
Ideally surely driving at full speed for a journey of that length should arrive at least a minute early?

My Pendolino to MK from Euston is routinely on time with a clear run, even allowing for a rather over zealous (in my view) running brake test.

 

[james_the_xv]

Surely the tight timetabling is the root of quite a lot of it. If the timings had a couple minutes of allowances or something then surely that would mean more trains pass conflict points on time and so don’t delay other services? Obviously doesn’t solve everything but I feel like that would help a bit?

You can do many things including:

• More allowances
• Uplift Headways
• Uplift Junction Margins
• Increase the number of locations with TPRs mandating 'firebreaks' when 2 or more services are planned on minimum margins

None of that will happen (in large numbers anyway). All of those reduce capacity and in many cases will reduce the amount of paths available per hour, you won't get a business case for it and the TOCs won't agree to it.

 

[MerlinRail 804]

You can do many things including:

• More allowances
• Uplift Headways
• Uplift Junction Margins
• Increase the number of locations with TPRs mandating 'firebreaks' when 2 or more services are planned on minimum margins

None of that will happen (in large numbers anyway). All of those reduce capacity and in many cases will reduce the amount of paths available per hour, you won't get a business case for it and the TOCs won't agree to it.

Surely more allowances on faster services would increase capacity in terms of blending with slower services. I get that wouldn’t be the case for the slower stuff though

My Pendolino to MK from Euston is routinely on time with a clear run, even allowing for a rather over zealous (in my view) running brake test.

I imagine the brake test contributes to what seems to be regular 30 second delays arriving at MK. Of course the brake test is very important and needs to be done, and 30s late is technically on time, but surely delays being possible due to a brake test is a bit risky?

 

[Bald Rick]

Of course the brake test is very important and needs to be done

I‘m not sure about that in this day and age. The RSSB has done research into this which demonstrates the running brake tests are not needed on modern stock under normal running. Arguably doing a running brake test is less safe as it causes signals in rear to be red for longer than necessary.

And specifically for Euston, I have lost count of the number of trains I have been on that have departed on a cautionary aspect, braked for a red at WM603 or 605, and then done a brake test around Camden or South Hampstead …

 

[MerlinRail 804]

And specifically for Euston, I have lost count of the number of trains I have been on that have departed on a cautionary aspect, braked for a red at WM603 or 605, and then done a brake test around Camden or South Hampstead …

I guess if you’ve braked for a signal that kinda counts surely?

 

[Pumbaa]

I‘m not sure about that in this day and age. The RSSB has done research into this which demonstrates the running brake tests are not needed on modern stock under normal running. Arguably doing a running brake test is less safe as it causes signals in rear to be red for longer than necessary.

And specifically for Euston, I have lost count of the number of trains I have been on that have departed on a cautionary aspect, braked for a red at WM603 or 605, and then done a brake test around Camden or South Hampstead …

Indeed. You only have to see the reactionary impact during disruption. Mind you, there are some TOCs that have only just removed the requirement for a high and low speed RBT. Modern units are not loose shunted wagons, and shouldn’t be treated as such.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jun 2025 ==

Last Thurs I think it was, I was on a delayed Pendo out of Euston, and in the middle of a flight of 6. All at least 15+ late departing. Monitoring progress, I could see the first 3 of the flight (including mine) kept around a maximum spacing of 4 signal sections apart once out of Camden, so running on a technical headway of about 80 seconds. Even with a call at MK on the leading train, that resumed all the way to Rugby when we went our separate ways.

Compare to the rear 3, that were invariably 5-6+ sections apart, and consequently grew over time.

It can be done, with good professional crew and safely. The trick we are yet to unlock is recognising that should be the norm, with a performance focussed railway that maintains and improves over time. Professional standard policies have a lot to answer for (I include my own TOC in that) but no more so than a collective realisation we have taken our eye off the ball over the past decade plus when it comes to what high performing (while safe) ops actually is.

 

[Purple Train]

I imagine the brake test contributes to what seems to be regular 30 second delays arriving at MK. Of course the brake test is very important and needs to be done, and 30s late is technically on time, but surely delays being possible due to a brake test is a bit risky?

It happens. Nearly every Elizabeth Line train from Reading loses 30 seconds at Kennet Bridge Junction for the brake test (and then often 30 more seconds en route despite having a clear run and not seeming to dawdle, though I digress).

 

[philosopher]

My Pendolino to MK from Euston is routinely on time with a clear run, even allowing for a rather over zealous (in my view) running brake test.

You must be lucky as I find it very unusual for an Avanti service to arrive on time at Euston. Typically a delay of between 3 and 20 minutes I find is very likely on Avanti‘s services and I would say of all the Avanti services I have taken in the last year, I estimate less than 20% actually arrived on time. Compare this to Chiltern where I would estimate about 80% have arrived on time.

The last journey I took on Monday for example, the train had to wait for trains that should have been using the northbound fast line to cross over to the slow line which I think was due to a signal failure which I assume closed part of the northbound fast line near Watford.

 

[Bald Rick]

Indeed. You only have to see the reactionary impact during disruption. Mind you, there are some TOCs that have only just removed the requirement for a high and low speed RBT. Modern units are not loose shunted wagons, and shouldn’t be treated as such.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jun 2025 ==

Last Thurs I think it was, I was on a delayed Pendo out of Euston, and in the middle of a flight of 6. All at least 15+ late departing. Monitoring progress, I could see the first 3 of the flight (including mine) kept around a maximum spacing of 4 signal sections apart once out of Camden, so running on a technical headway of about 80 seconds. Even with a call at MK on the leading train, that resumed all the way to Rugby when we went our separate ways.

Compare to the rear 3, that were invariably 5-6+ sections apart, and consequently grew over time.

It can be done, with good professional crew and safely. The trick we are yet to unlock is recognising that should be the norm, with a performance focussed railway that maintains and improves over time. Professional standard policies have a lot to answer for (I include my own TOC in that) but no more so than a collective realisation we have taken our eye off the ball over the past decade plus when it comes to what high performing (while safe) ops actually is.

Great post.

You must be lucky as I find it very unusual for an Avanti service to arrive on time at Euston.

Not lucky at all. My train last night arrived on time. Early in fact.

Of course there are some trains that are more likely to be late than others, especially if you are travelling on one formed of an 805/807 (currently), or one from Scotland via the Trent Valley, or anything arriving into Manchester.

 

[The Planner]

You can do many things including:

• More allowances
• Uplift Headways
• Uplift Junction Margins
• Increase the number of locations with TPRs mandating 'firebreaks' when 2 or more services are planned on minimum margins

None of that will happen (in large numbers anyway). All of those reduce capacity and in many cases will reduce the amount of paths available per hour, you won't get a business case for it and the TOCs won't agree to it.

They are all uplifted anyway as part of the process. Everything has to be a multiple of ½ minutes. The technical green to green headway on vast sections can be as low as 80-85 seconds, its planned at 180. You would never firebreak after two trains.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jun 2025 ==

Surely more allowances on faster services would increase capacity in terms of blending with slower services. I get that wouldn’t be the case for the slower stuff though

No. You would either end up waiting time somewhere, or the trains joining at junctions etc now need to be later and potentially lose their paths.

 

[Tilting007]

There have been a lot of service disrupting incidents this past week…
With such a busy railway most incidents, even minor ones, cause delay. Avanti cannot recover to the planned service easily due to crew diagrams which then sees services running late for longer.

 

[RGM654]

A few weeks ago I was on a Pendo that departed about 15 minutes late from Euston because (I think) of crew arriving late on an incomong train. We set off simultaneously with another Pendo, which was then allowed to go in front, possibly reasonably as we were first stop Nuneaton and the other was first stop Stafford. At some point on the journey the train manager apologised for the lateness and added that, on the basis of his experience the day before, the train would probably be half an hour late into Manchester.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

TSW is not likely to be an accurate measure of real life.

It will surprise you. Back when I was playing the Great Eastern add on for Microsoft Train Simulator, I programmed into it the 1988 timetable for the night time Harwich to London boat train, and always found myself signal checked outside Chelmsford whilst a Norwich train, which in reality was timetabled to arrive at Manningtree not long after the boat train was scheduled to pass, set down passengers.

 

[800301]

It happens. Nearly every Elizabeth Line train from Reading loses 30 seconds at Kennet Bridge Junction for the brake test (and then often 30 more seconds en route despite having a clear run and not seeming to dawdle, though I digress).

You sure it wasn’t for the 50mph TSR that was there for over a year that’s finally gone?

 

[Harpo]

To answer the OP’s exam question you’d need all the data on root causes of WCML delay including imported secondary delays (i.e. off-route causations).

Timetables generally don’t cause delay themselves so long as they are error and conflict-free. However, their design can mitigate delay or can exacerbate delay by exporting it or by always needing interventions (usually service alterations) to force recovery.

 

[bleeder4]

I have done a Euston to Glasgow return today(25th June) with a number of delays, from a trespasser costing us 10 mins, which lucky, to then after being 10 mins late, a freight allowed in front of us from Lockerbie area all the way to near making us 25 mins late, then coming back being put on slow lines from Winsford to Stafford. I quite often follow how the WCML is doing on RTT, and have noticed pretty much every day there seems to be a litany of delays. So it got me wandering whats the cause of this? It seems to me its a mixture of tight timetabling and too hard pushed infrastructure so there no give if anything happens.

You can travel on the WCML every week, and every week you will have a different experience. It's great when stuff like this happens though, it keeps it varied. Non-stop through Crewe centre road, slow line instead of fast, running wrong line, platform 3 at Penrith, stuck behind heavy freight going up Shap etc. It's what makes travelling the WCML so fun in my opinion, it's always a different experience, something else unusual to tick off the list!

 

[Carlisle]

stuck behind heavy freight going up Shap etc.

Rarely happens in my experience unless the loco’s having mechanical trouble there’s usually ample time to reach the various loops. Also less freight nowadays with no Grangemouth or postal traffic even the Varamis rail unit is cancelled most of the time lately, what’s happened to that.?

 

[Peter0124]

Realtime Trains | 1S48 0930 London Euston to Glasgow Central | 25/06/2025

Real-time train running information for 1S48 0930 departure from London Euston to Glasgow Central on 25/06/2025. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

I assume this was the train you were on. It often does get delayed north of Carlisle because of 4S43 (Tesco freight) being slow infront of it for a while.

 

[Bikeman78]

It happens. Nearly every Elizabeth Line train from Reading loses 30 seconds at Kennet Bridge Junction for the brake test (and then often 30 more seconds en route despite having a clear run and not seeming to dawdle, though I digress).

Why isn't there an allowance in the timetable for the brake test? Every Elizabeth line train will do one shortly after leaving Reading. It gets more difficult for locations/TOCs where only some trains change driver.

 

[Some guy]

Even today. Caught the 9:00 to Euston from Preston it left 10 late and then got stopped outside Crewe and then places on the slow line just past Stafford which lost another 10 minutes and then was stuck behind a stopping service into Euston