Even if Manchester to Hull was electrified, 2tph would still need to be DMU opperated for the Scarborough and Middlesborough services.
Or could IEC units be used or could passengers be forced to change for DMU's at York?
Or would electrification to Scarborough and York as part of the first phase of TPN electrification be finanical viable?
Regarding the electrification of Transpennine North, I think the York to Scarborough leg would be best added into the Northern franchise as an extension of the Caldervale York-Manchester services.
I think there'd be more of a case for electrifying through to Middlesborough: Despite there only being an hourly service on both the Scarborough and Middlesborough routes, there's no obvious service that could be extended up to Middlesborough to take up the slack if the TPE service was withdrawn.
Plus, there's a fairly substantial Freightliner traffic that runs up to Teeside, which would stand to benefit from electric traction if the route north from Northallerton was electrified (Assuming that the Wilton Freightliners aren't cross-country workings, where it's back to the drawing board until there's any signs of MML electrification).
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I agree, sadly.
I don't see TPE electrification before 1 January 2020, which is the date when the new DDA rules kick in.
So if we want to replace Pacers (or upgrade 150/153/155s etc) then we need to consider something else.
(not that TPE electrification would have saved sufficient DMUs to replace all Pacers anyway, of course)
To replace all of the Pacers without procuring any new DMUs, I've fathomed out that it would require electrification of Transpennine North, Valley Lines, the Midland Mainline, the currently announced Oxford and Newbury scheme (Assuming that it will create some sort of 165 cascade that will allow FGW to rid itself of its' remaining 143s) and a phase 2 North West electrification that would cover quite a lot of the remaining unelectrified North West local routes: Buxton, Marple and New Mills, Southport and Kirkby.
And that's assuming that the Midland Mainline and Transpennine North schemes would work to connect together with wires the vast majority of the local routes radiating from Wakefield Kirkgate.
So yeah, we're going to need some new DMUs by the end of the decade.