The EU "Deal" - poll!

bramling · 14 Dec 2018

Howardh said:
May's deal is going nowhere, the EU won't back down in the slightest....

The more headlines are seen along the lines of “EU won’t budge” the more likely a no-deal is, and more significantly the more likely a second referendum produces a second leave vote, possibly with a greater margin.

It’s noticeable how the term “managed no deal” has quietly slipped into the vocabulary in the last few days.

RailUK Forums

Ken H · 14 Dec 2018

EM2 said:
JR-M says on BBC Breakfast that the key thing is that we leave the EU. So he surely should be happy with TM's deal, or a Norway solution, or a Switzerland solution, or any other option that means that we are no longer members?

TM's deal and Norway are not leaving the EU. They are a fudge.

radamfi · 14 Dec 2018

The EU has already compromised far more than anyone would have expected. Free movement was supposed to be non-negotiable.

nidave · 14 Dec 2018

I thought the EU was just everyone following Germany - We keep hearing Germany is in control
So how do people respond to this:

The British government is seeking to place a duty on both sides to try and get out of the Irish backstop within 12 months of it coming into force, a proposal supported by Germany’s Angela Merkel and the Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz.
But it was opposed by Ireland, France, Sweden, Spain and Belgium, who voiced doubts that May would be able to sell the technical concession to hostile MPs in Westminster.
If the EU is being dictated to by Germany and under german rule then how come they didnt get thier own way.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-tell-may-to-find-brexit-consensus-among-mps

EM2 · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
TM's deal and Norway are not leaving the EU. They are a fudge.

Would we be members of the EU under either of those arrangements?

Ken H · 14 Dec 2018

EM2 said:
Would we be members of the EU under either of those arrangements?

if we are in the single market, customs union and subject to the ECJ, (all core institutions of the Eu) then I would say we were.

having a foreign power setting our external tariffs and having legal jurisdiction over is isnt 'leaving the EU'

AM9 · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
if we are in the single market, customs union and subject to the ECJ, (all core institutions of the Eu) then I would say we were.

having a foreign power setting our external tariffs and having legal jurisdiction over is isnt 'leaving the EU'

If you know any Norwegians to speak to, why not ask them if they feel that their country is in the EU?

nidave · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
if we are in the single market, customs union and subject to the ECJ, (all core institutions of the Eu) then I would say we were.

having a foreign power setting our external tariffs and having legal jurisdiction over is isnt 'leaving the EU'

After we leave everything including the CU and SM. If how do you stop the GFA being rendered invalid and a hard border in N. Ireland and ROI.

How are you going to keep the lights on in n. Ireland as when the GFA becomes invalid the electricity supply gets cut until a deal is made. N. Ireland does not have enough local generating capacity and the link to gb can't take up the slack.

Plus do the UK not have any say in the the tarrifs set by the EU? Thats news to me.

Edit: Damn that horrable EAT and CEJ - making employers include the caculation of regular and seteled overtime in the payment of holiday pay which the UK courts refused to do benefiting millions of employees who do compulsulary overtime and regular overtime.

Ken H · 14 Dec 2018

nidave said:
After we leave everything including the CU and SM. If how do you stop the GFA being rendered invalid and a hard border in N. Ireland and ROI.

How are you going to keep the lights on in n. Ireland as when the GFA becomes invalid the electricity supply gets cut until a deal is made. N. Ireland does not have enough local generating capacity and the link to gb can't take up the slack.

Plus do the UK not have any say in the the tarrifs set by the EU? Thats news to me.

Edit: Damn that horrable EAT and CEJ - making employers include the caculation of regular and seteled overtime in the payment of holiday pay which the UK courts refused to do benefiting millions of employees who do compulsulary overtime and regular overtime.

No need for a hard border. HMRC said in select committee that there was no need. Also, if the UK has lower tariffs than the EU, then its the EU that needs the hard border, not the UK.

So a ROI in the EU cant sell electricity to the UK? Really? I am sure there are other cross border electricity lines. And will the French and Netherlands close the long standing electricity cables to the UK. The french/UK one existed before the UK joined the EU.

After 29th march we will have absolutely no say in any EU decision making. We wont send MEP's to the EU parliament, and we wont have any UK commissioners. We just have to take EU law without any say.

We have a parliament that is quite capable of implementing worker protection - as it has done since the first factory act in the 19th century. If you dont like what parliament enacts, then change the government through the ballot box.

nidave · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
No need for a hard border. HMRC said in select committee that there was no need. Also, if the UK has lower tariffs than the EU, then its the EU that needs the hard border, not the UK.

So a ROI in the EU cant sell electricity to the UK? Really? I am sure there are other cross border electricity lines. And will the French and Netherlands close the long standing electricity cables to the UK. The french/UK one existed before the UK joined the EU.

After 29th march we will have absolutely no say in any EU decision making. We wont send MEP's to the EU parliament, and we wont have any UK commissioners. We just have to take EU law without any say.

We have a parliament that is quite capable of implementing worker protection - as it has done since the first factory act in the 19th century. If you dont like what parliament enacts, then change the government through the ballot box.

Dont you get it - These contracts are based on the GFA - the GFA is dependtant on frictionless trade of goods, people and services. These become invalid with a hard brexit (hense the backstop) so any contracts which are in place are invald. There are bigger things at stake than you realise.

Ken H · 14 Dec 2018

nidave said:
Dont you get it - These contracts are based on the GFA - the GFA is dependtant on frictionless trade of goods, people and services. These become invalid with a hard brexit (hense the backstop) so any contracts which are in place are invald. There are bigger things at stake than you realise.

why cant it be frictionless? My client sends goods between DE and CH. The computer system sends a data file to the CH customs, so when the truck arrives at the border, its just check the paperwork and the truck is on its way.

nidave · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
why cant it be frictionless? My client sends goods between DE and CH. The computer system sends a data file to the CH customs, so when the truck arrives at the border, its just check the paperwork and the truck is on its way.

Do the EU have a deal with these two places?
Even with the backstop HMRC say its going to take 30 moths to implent something for N. Irleand

Thompson revealed that building the systems required for the Northern Ireland backstop could take more than two years – but pointed out this was based on a series of assumptions.

"It is really difficult to answer that question," he said when asked if a backstop would be ready by December 2020, which is when the transition period is currently scheduled to end.

For a start, he said, the department needs further clarity "on what exactly is required in order for us to be able to work out what IT systems we would need to build".

After that, HMRC would need to know what EU IT systems and databases it still had access to. The Withdrawal Agreement provides for different systems to be shut off at different times, but a draft political declaration published yesterday aims to re-negotiate access once the transition period is over.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/23/brexit_ireland_backstop_hmrc/

Ken H · 14 Dec 2018

nidave said:
Do the EU have a deal with these two places?

what has that got to do with the price of fish?

customs declarations are normally done electronically these days. Most goods are not checked against paper manifests. Do you think someone physically checks all the containers at felixstowe (which is mostly not EU trade)

mmh · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
what has that got to do with the price of fish?

customs declarations are normally done electronically these days. Most goods are not checked against paper manifests. Do you think someone physically checks all the containers at felixstowe (which is mostly not EU trade)

I think a surprising amount of Remainers do think that's what happens, based on the amount of rubbish that's spoken about borders, ports, Dover, etc etc.

nidave · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
what has that got to do with the price of fish?

customs declarations are normally done electronically these days. Most goods are not checked against paper manifests. Do you think someone physically checks all the containers at felixstowe (which is mostly not EU trade)

SIGH
When we leave the EU and if there is no deals in place what contracts are there place to allow these eletronic customs declarations.

No deal plans 'quite a challenge'
The department is racing to finish the already-planned replacement of the CHIEF (Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight) system with CDS before the UK leaves the bloc in March 2019, but has been forced to admit that the two will have to work concurrently.

Thompson said the first release (for selected business and certain imports) launched on time, on 14 August, and the second release (for further imports) is on track for autumn. However, the third release (for exports) will be pushed back from January to March.

“Therefore, the strategy of using CHIEF for export and CDS for import is one which needs to be tested,” he said.

The department is five weeks into an eight-week test to see if CHIEF can scale up and handle the increased workload, he said, adding the test was, “so far, good”.

HMRC only discussed it with external software devs after gov.UK released technical notes...
But a further challenge faces the department, as the government last month announced its plans for customs and VAT if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal.

This will see acquisition VAT – for movements between the EU and UK – replaced by import VAT. This is usually collected earlier, and so is a cashflow disadvantage to businesses – to combat this the government said it would introduce postponed accounting for all import VAT.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/...extra_weight_to_hmrc_customs_and_vat_systems/

mmh said:
I think a surprising amount of Remainers do think that's what happens, based on the amount of rubbish that's spoken about borders, ports, Dover, etc etc.

In 2015, there were around 55 million customs declarations, a figure which is set to increase to 255 million after Brexit. However, CDS was originally designed to handle 150 million declarations each year.

Are you telling me the people who run the freight comapnies, the ports and all these people are lying!

EM2 · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
what has that got to do with the price of fish?

customs declarations are normally done electronically these days. Most goods are not checked against paper manifests. Do you think someone physically checks all the containers at felixstowe (which is mostly not EU trade)

When I worked for a company that imported machinery and materials from the US and the Far East (mainly Taiwan), almost every shipment was inspected at UK Customs.

EM2 · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
why cant it be frictionless? My client sends goods between DE and CH. The computer system sends a data file to the CH customs, so when the truck arrives at the border, its just check the paperwork and the truck is on its way.

Because Switzerland is a member of the EFTA. The UK doesn't want to be.

EM2 · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
if we are in the single market, customs union and subject to the ECJ, (all core institutions of the Eu) then I would say we were.

having a foreign power setting our external tariffs and having legal jurisdiction over is isnt 'leaving the EU'

Clearly we wouldn't be members. How can you say a Norway model would mean that the UK is in the EU, when Norway itself isn't? That's completely illogical.

EM2 · 14 Dec 2018

I don't see why Leavers are up in arms about the backstop anyway. The transition period is two years, surely that's long enough to implement the technology solution that Leavers insist would solve the border issue?

Ken H · 14 Dec 2018

EM2 said:
Clearly we wouldn't be members. How can you say a Norway model would mean that the UK is in the EU, when Norway itself isn't? That's completely illogical.

They have a very close relationship with the EU, including the single market and FOM. The subject of the EU is as divisive there as it is here.

EM2 · 14 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
They have a very close relationship with the EU, including the single market and FOM. The subject of the EU is as divisive there as it is here.

But, crucially, they are not members.

nidave · 15 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
They have a very close relationship with the EU, including the single market and FOM. The subject of the EU is as divisive there as it is here.

citation needed on that statement.
It's irrelevant as Norway has to accept the UK into the group and they have said no.

Ken H · 15 Dec 2018

nidave said:
citation needed on that statement.
It's irrelevant as Norway has to accept the UK into the group and they have said no.

its all in WIKI

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway–European_Union_relations

EM2 · 15 Dec 2018

It's a very long thread, so I'm not going to quote it all, but this is a good basic primer on what 'trading on WTO terms' will actually mean.
https://mobile.twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1073221524545363973

There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever.
Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club.

EM2 · 15 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
its all in WIKI

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway–European_Union_relations

Interesting first sentence in that article.

nidave · 15 Dec 2018

EM2 said:
Interesting first sentence in that article.

I suspect the wiki article is suspect.

Howardh · 15 Dec 2018

nidave said:
citation needed on that statement.
It's irrelevant as Norway has to accept the UK into the group and they have said no.

EFTA? Norway has said no to a temporary arrangement. If the UK decided to be a full-time member then I think the situation is different and we could be accepted. I suppose a few £££'s in the right places might twist their arm.

AndrewNewens · 16 Dec 2018

Ken H said:
its all in WIKI

For heavens sake, Wikipedia is not a reliable source of information. Correction, Wikipedia may be a relaible source for some things, but it is not a reliable source for anything related to the debate about Brexit. That includes arguments for both sides.

Apologies if this question has already been asked, but how does the current poll (currently 69.4% in favour of remain) compare to the pre-referendum poll?

Esker-pades · 16 Dec 2018

AndrewNewens said:
For heavens sake, Wikipedia is not a reliable source of information. Correction, Wikipedia may be a relaible source for some things, but it is not a reliable source for anything related to the debate about Brexit. That includes arguments for both sides.

Apologies if this question has already been asked, but how does the current poll (currently 69.4% in favour of remain) compare to the pre-referendum poll?

This was the FT's "poll of polls" on the question, which showed 48 remain to 46 leave. That was on day of the referendum.
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

EM2 · 16 Dec 2018

AndrewNewens said:
For heavens sake, Wikipedia is not a reliable source of information. Correction, Wikipedia may be a relaible source for some things, but it is not a reliable source for anything related to the debate about Brexit. That includes arguments for both sides.

Ken's link relates to Norway and the EU. It has nothing to do with Brexit.

The EU "Deal" - poll!

Should we accept the deal, have no-deal or remain?

Accept the deal

Reject the deal and leave the EU with no deal

Reject the deal and remain in the EU

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