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The 2019 General Election Result and Aftermath
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TrafficEng
Member
It is striking looking at the results map how small a geographic area Labour have control of, even though they retain a decent number of seats.
And ironic that an election fought primarily over Brexit leaves the country coloured predominantly yellow and blue.
Jordan Adam
Established Member
Boris has typically been more of a Left wing Tory, so perhaps now that he has a majority he won't be under the same pressure from the right wing group of the party and will take a more centre approach. Not saying that'll happen, but i like to remain optimistic.
The issue with Labour is that many have viewed them as going too far left, they're only chances of getting in power again would be if a resurgence of "New Labour" (so to speak) happened. I also think that Jeremy failed to connect with the working class above 30 demographic in the north.
A great result for the SNP, with my local candidate seeing her majority increase from 4,139 to 12,670. It's a shame that Banff & Buckie and Aberdeenshire West have stayed Tory, but it's not a huge surprise and the SNP have tightened the gap, the Tory majority in the latter falling from around 8,000 to around 800.
The highlight of the night for me had to be Jo Swinson loosing her seat to the SNP, followed by Nicola's reaction. I do suspect there will be another independence referendum soon.
The issue with Labour is that many have viewed them as going too far left, they're only chances of getting in power again would be if a resurgence of "New Labour" (so to speak) happened. I also think that Jeremy failed to connect with the working class above 30 demographic in the north.
A great result for the SNP, with my local candidate seeing her majority increase from 4,139 to 12,670. It's a shame that Banff & Buckie and Aberdeenshire West have stayed Tory, but it's not a huge surprise and the SNP have tightened the gap, the Tory majority in the latter falling from around 8,000 to around 800.
The highlight of the night for me had to be Jo Swinson loosing her seat to the SNP, followed by Nicola's reaction. I do suspect there will be another independence referendum soon.
nlogax
Established Member
Johnson now has a large enough majority to effectively ignore some of the more hardened Brexiteers and nutjobs and work on a decent trade agreement, even with a view to extending the transition in order to secure an economically sensible deal.
I'd like to think it's possible but under what circumstances could the government be forced or persuaded to grant one?
I'd like to think it's possible but under what circumstances could the government be forced or persuaded to grant one?
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He already had an endorsement. He effed it over by trying to put it through parliament in three days!
bramling
Veteran Member
This may or may not turn out to be true, but I think Labour misses the point that these people feel they are suffering consequences *now*, as a result of things done and not done in the Blair years.
Labour took their eye off the ball years ago, just that Corbyn’s rhetoric made this much more conspicuous than it was in the Blair years.
Of course the loss of Scotland to Labour was another unintended consequence of the Blair years, albeit coming about through a completely different set of circumstances. Scottish seats are crucial for building a Labour majority, so without them they are already on the back foot.
Tetchytyke
Veteran Member
You can sigh if you want. But- as I suspect, I come from there, I live there- I'm closer to the truth than many want to admit. Especially with "Workington Man".
The old working men's club mentality is still alive and kicking. So send the buggers back and wor lass stays at home to cook the tea.
I've genuinely not seen much of it. And I don't see why equality is divisive, unless one is a white middle class bloke. But meh.
I'd say Brexit is the main reason. But meh.
My fear is that Labour do what the Tories did in 97 and 2001. After getting a trouncing they lurched to the right with a truly awful leader. And after a second trouncing in 2001 they stayed right where they were, with an even more awful leader.
TrafficEng
Member
The first step is for the policy makers to understand why people voted Leave, rather than dismissing them as racists and idiots.
Once that is done, the second step won't need a great deal of thinking about.
py_megapixel
Established Member
Personally, after his performance since he first became prime minister, I wouldn't trust Boris Johnson to deliver Christmas cards to his neighbours, let alone Brexit, which will probably require some very careful treading to avoid leaving the country in ruins - if that's possible at all.
But he's got what he wanted now. He has a clear majority in the Commons. Time to see if he can actually keep to his promises. (Which, in typical Tory fashion, include both increases in spending and freezes on income taxes).
I highly doubt that in five years, construction will have started on 6 new hospitals, there will be a review of the impacts on air and noise pollution levels of Heathrow Airport which will determine whether the third runway could be built, a £14bn increase in school funding etc etc.
But you never know. There's a tiny chance that he will surprise us.
But he's got what he wanted now. He has a clear majority in the Commons. Time to see if he can actually keep to his promises. (Which, in typical Tory fashion, include both increases in spending and freezes on income taxes).
I highly doubt that in five years, construction will have started on 6 new hospitals, there will be a review of the impacts on air and noise pollution levels of Heathrow Airport which will determine whether the third runway could be built, a £14bn increase in school funding etc etc.
But you never know. There's a tiny chance that he will surprise us.
Pakenhamtrain
Member
It appears the same thing that happened in America and Australia is happening in the UK. The working class abandoning the party that traditionally represented them.
Bantamzen
Established Member
It isn't just Labour past that has caused issues, the very government they have chosen now has had 9 years in power!
Jordan Adam
Established Member
Not too sure, i think the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections will be a deciding factor. Obviously those against "Sexit... would argue we voted in 2014 and said no, however it cannot be denied that regardless of position on the issue the circumstances have clearly changed. One of the deciding factors in the 2014 vote was the No campaign saying that if we voted yes we couldn't be a party of the EU - well we got pulled out against our will anyway! If England wants and can have Brexit Scotland must have an Independence vote. It's clear that a self governing Scotland will be the future some day as politically England and Scotland are going in separate directions.
This is my hope too...
I can't see Labour getting their Scottish seats back, from the people i know many still view Scottish Labour as "Red Tories". Labours only real chance in this election would've been had they secured enough seats in England/Wales and could've formed a coalition with the SNP. However this would've likely been very unpopular outside Scotland.
TrafficEng
Member
Realistically though, everyone knew that after the second reading the Bill would have been subject to constant amendments adding in a Customs Union and Single Market membership, and other items which would have been incompatible with the agreed WA, with the sole intention of running the clock down to the next deadline.
The second reading vote was not the endorsement required.
Three days or three months made no difference. Parliament had already set its face against Government policy.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
It should be considered that this is most likely a 2 term conservative government thanks to Corbyn.
bramling
Veteran Member
Absolutely. Just had the Lib Dem deputy leader attributing the result to nationalism and populism. This is sheer head in the sand territory.
The first thing certain parties might take from this is that the electorate don’t take well to being effectively told they made the wrong choice in a vote. Even Swinson’s post-defeat commiseration speech continued to contain elements of this.
Meanwhile I’ve already seen hints on social media from Momentum children suggesting they can “reverse” or “remedy” this election result, just like I saw similar on the morning after the EU referendum. They just don’t get it, and the more this attitude persists the more the left is going to wither and die.
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TrafficEng
Member
Labour have just over 4 years and 4 months to turn things around. As others have said, they cannot hang around.
The Labour vote fell from 13,137 in 2017 to just 5000 this time. That accounts for a big part of the swing. Not all of the St Albans constituency is wealthy.
Also, the LibDems threw vast amounts of resources into winning the seat. Possibly at the cost of winning others elsewhere. Perhaps a pyrrhic win in the final analysis.
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scotrail158713
Established Member
Can anyone explain how Boris thinks people voting Conservative have “voted for change” despite the Conservatives being in power for the last nine years?
bramling
Veteran Member
Very pyrrhic as within seconds of winning St Albans the Lib Dems lost Eastbourne - so back to square one within seconds.
nlogax
Established Member
Momentum need to exit stage (far) left. They - including Jon Lansman - should disappear from the Labour party if it should have any chance of returning to power within the next decade.
Alan Johnson said it best last night. https://twitter.com/brenkjm/status/1205278775400914944
I would suggest it's more a case of the Labour Party abandoning the working class people who they were supposed to be representing.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
They won't overturn this Tory majority in one parliament imo
Peter Kelford
Member
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They might. They did in 2005 - 2010 (albeit the other way round) and 1992 - 1997 this way round.
NoMorePacers
Established Member
This.
For a while now (since New Labour became a thing) Labour’s policy seems to have been “Oh, the working classes have always voted for us and will continue to do so, so why should we bother trying to represent them?” while chasing middle class voters instead. It worked for a certain amount of time, but now it’s blown up in their face.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
A new leader is needed. One who can reconnect with and appeal to people who should be labour voters. With the way the party is and with the Corbyn cult in charge what do you think will happen?
It was more that, unlike in previous years, Labour didn’t bother campaigning in St Albans, and a huge turnout. Personally I’m very pleased to have a new MP this morning!
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Tetchytyke
Veteran Member
I think that's fair comment, we saw similiar with the rise of the BNP in the early 2000s. But I think Brexit and the BNP are linked, partly as a proxy vote for wider issues, and partly because of pure anti-immigrant sentiment.
But the old working men's club mentality is still there and very insular; clearly the Tories have tapped into that.
Tetchytyke
Veteran Member
His campaign chief is a hardened Brexitist and nutjob. So there's no evidence to suggest he'll now ignore them.
"One Nation Conservative" seems to be the Tory Parrots' line this morning, repeated over and over again. Interesting. But the proof will be in the pudding.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
I said this last night and stand by it. The Tories need to govern in a way that repays their new supporters.
The guy who won blyth said he would be on the train to london on Monday to get Brexit done and tell boris what he needed.
The problem is I doubt boris is able either intellectually or ideologically to understand or deliver.
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