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Britain’s relationship with the EU post Brexit.

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Cowley

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It’s probably time to move the debate on from the endless arguing over whether we should or shouldn’t have left the EU.
What’s done is done and I think it’s fairly clear that there’s going to be a lot of haggling, dealing, compromising and work to do over the next few years as to what the UK’s relationship with the EU is likely to be (short term and long term).
That’s what this thread is about.

Please stick to the subject folks. This is not about lamenting or toasting the result.
This is about what will happen from here.
This is also not about what people see as ‘lost’ or ‘gained’, because all of that has been done to death in the other thread.

Over to you. ;)
 
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Snow1964

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My view is Boris, will be Boris, and talk big and say we won’t allow Europe to do this and that for couple of weeks.

It will then all go quiet as realise the EU is going to protect itself.

Sometime in the Spring, might get an effective opposition in Government that will bring up items that are controversial and upset the public: cutting workers rights, need visas for holidays, loose mobile roaming at same price etc

Then it will stalemate over summer. As industry starts to announce possible UK job losses to to border controls making UK unattractive.

Eventually in Autumn, everyone will realise the new Utopia, is just a smokescreen and actually getting a bad Bodge that is worse than staying in Europe.

In December there will be a last minute panic and end up worse off in some ways as stupid things are conceded. Anyway that’s my prediction.
 

Spoorslag '70

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So far, I did not really write on anything Brexit related on these forums. I guess it's a good point for that to change now. Additonaly, as someone living on the continent and being (too) used to Schengen, I might have some different views to people thinking that this whole concept of leaving the single market is a good idea.

In my eyes, the best outcome for the UK (but not for the political system) would be rejoining, as long as it is possible under the old conditions (remember, the UK had some opt-outs etc., which might not come back at a later date...). That would however be a desaster for British politics, as they would have "ignored" "the people's vote"(sic!) and might enhance some of the dissatisfaction, many leavers already have because of being in the EU in the first place.

Staying in the single market (i.e. a Norway style soloution) (or a free trade agreement) is still good for the economy, but would mean following rules the UK (as the smaller partner in any such agreement) would have no (or little) say over - thus staying fully in would give the UK slightly more freedom.

It should be clear to anyone, that completly isolating from the EU, as some individuals would like to, and focussing on the US will bring problems rather similair to option two, but will have some issues due to the longer distance, i.e. higher transport costs for goods being im- or exported. Considering some of the individuals asking for this version, it would not supprise me if things many people have fought for (e.g. workers rights etc.) which are standardised by the EU would be ripped out of British law, in favour of a more American version. I do not think that that is what the "typical leaver" (AFAIK many would be harmed by such channges) wanted nor what they were promised. Companies would of course be free to set higher standards themselves, but would not be able to compete with those who do not - this does not look quite feasible to me...


The only problem with option 2 is that people could (and surely would) still blame the EU for any shortcomings as "we haven't really left!!!!!", but considering the implications of option 3 and the desaster for the likes of the Rt. Hon. PM etc. option 1 would be, it might be a very nice compromise...
 

dosxuk

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The general public need to understand two major things before a future deal well become acceptable:
1. We are now the minor party in these negotiations. If the EU say we have to abide by their rules to trade with them, as they do with everyone else, then we will have to abide by their rules or not trade with them. That decision is ours to make. We don't get to decide how it works from their end.
2. Tariffs are bad. There's a lot about how we can put tariffs on everything from the EU, but most of those people seem to forget who pays that money in the end - the purchaser, i.e. you and me. Yes, the government may get 5p extra for every tin of Spanish tomatoes that come over the border, but it's not going to be the Spanish farmers paying that, it's going to be reflected in the price on the supermarket shelf.

Unfortunately I'm not holding out for either fact to be accepted, instead we'll have more pifflewaffle followed by falling in line sold as the EU relenting when actually it's us.
 

Howardh

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It will be interesting to see what happens to roaming charges. Clearly the companies aren't charities and I bet they manage to put up roaming costs as soon as they can, but with hotels, cafe's, even buses and trains having free wi-fi now as opposed to, say, 10 years ago, how much benefit will those telecom companies get from hiking charges (if they do)?
Not only that, once abroad we can buy local SIM cards and pay their "cheap" rates.
 

Doppelganger

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The main issues are the fact the UK government says it wants to diverge from EU rules, that makes a comprehensive deal with the EU pretty much impossible.

Most major trading blocks/countries are waiting to see what sort of deal the EU strikes before they even consider a deal with the UK save for the US, who are keen for a quick deal but on their terms.

It seems the UK have already thrown Northern Ireland under a bus and now it looks like Gibraltar are getting the same treatment, so trying to predict what sort of relationship will be formed with the EU is difficult to say, but at this stage I'd be quite concerned about the integrity of the Union, as coupled with Scotland, there isn't a lot holding it together.

Plus for those who say the UK has left the EU, the transition period is precisely the opposite of that. The hard Brexit has been avoided now and people have been fooled to think "Brexit is done", when in reality it is at the end of the year. Why is this an important distinction? Because it will allow Johnson and his mates to then lay the blame of any economic turbulence on something else, after all, it can't be Brexit, can it? Brexit happened 31/01/20, so it must be something else, right?
 

najaB

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It seems the UK have already thrown Northern Ireland under a bus and now it looks like Gibraltar are getting the same treatment
Interesting that the gutter press are branding this as the EU being two-faced. For example, the Express' banner is: "EU turncoats! Brussels now backs Spain bid for Gibraltar but Rock says ‘Britain backs us'"

Which completely ignores that while we were members then it was an internal family dispute and the collective position was that Britain's claim was stronger than Spain's. Now it's a dispute between an EU member state and a third country, so naturally they will back the member state. We chose to leave.

There's a good discussion of the matter here:
 

Doppelganger

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Interesting that the gutter press are branding this as the EU being two-faced. For example, the Express' banner is: "EU turncoats! Brussels now backs Spain bid for Gibraltar but Rock says ‘Britain backs us'"

Which completely ignores that while we were members then it was an internal family dispute and the collective position was that Britain's claim was stronger than Spain's. Now it's a dispute between an EU member state and a third country, so naturally they will back the member state. We chose to leave.

There's a good discussion of the matter here:

This is a great example of why Brexit was a complicated thing and the vast majority, on both sides, didn't understand the process well enough.

The chickens are coming back to roost however...
 

ashkeba

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The main issues are the fact the UK government says it wants to diverge from EU rules, that makes a comprehensive deal with the EU pretty much impossible.
Does it say that? Boris's deal committed him to a level playing field and I do not think piffle to the newspapers overrules his deal. Expect bleating about how the EU is bullying the UK into doing what Boris has already agreed to do.

Plus for those who say the UK has left the EU, the transition period is precisely the opposite of that. The hard Brexit has been avoided now and people have been fooled to think "Brexit is done", when in reality it is at the end of the year. Why is this an important distinction? Because it will allow Johnson and his mates to then lay the blame of any economic turbulence on something else, after all, it can't be Brexit, can it? Brexit happened 31/01/20, so it must be something else, right?
I agree. Plus this thread title refers to "post Brexit" and wouldn't that be after Brexit is finished? Which is after the UK rejoins the EU? Probably with no optouts next time. Maybe a way to avoid joining the Euro by deliberately avoiding currency convergence like some others, but not on other topics.
 

ashkeba

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It will be interesting to see what happens to roaming charges. Clearly the companies aren't charities and I bet they manage to put up roaming costs as soon as they can, but with hotels, cafe's, even buses and trains having free wi-fi now as opposed to, say, 10 years ago, how much benefit will those telecom companies get from hiking charges (if they do)?
Not only that, once abroad we can buy local SIM cards and pay their "cheap" rates.
Most people are lazy and technophobe and UK networks try to avoid selling the dual SIM models of phones, with mainly only ones where you have to choose between a SIM and an SD being available. I expect lots of bill shock stories in the pig press the first summer after transition ends.
 

JamesT

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Most people are lazy and technophobe and UK networks try to avoid selling the dual SIM models of phones, with mainly only ones where you have to choose between a SIM and an SD being available. I expect lots of bill shock stories in the pig press the first summer after transition ends.

I suspect the question is which company will be brave enough to up their prices first? If some do and some don't, that's a pretty good marketing tool for those that still have free roaming.
At least one company has promised to retain free roaming to the EU - http://www.three.co.uk/hub/roaming-brexit/ - I suspect others also have but that was the first google hit.
 

Aictos

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It will be interesting to see what happens to roaming charges. Clearly the companies aren't charities and I bet they manage to put up roaming costs as soon as they can, but with hotels, cafe's, even buses and trains having free wi-fi now as opposed to, say, 10 years ago, how much benefit will those telecom companies get from hiking charges (if they do)?
Not only that, once abroad we can buy local SIM cards and pay their "cheap" rates.

I'm sure that Three have already stated that they have no plans to reintroduce roaming charges while EE, Vodafone and O2 are undecided however that might just be for calls and texts, no idea on how data will be affected.

I for one use data a lot when aboard as I use Google Maps to find my way around so I hope we don't have to return to the days of paying £5+ a day for a data addon.
 

DarloRich

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my money is still on no deal terms at the end of the transition period - not helped by the comments from the PM this morning.
 

Mag_seven

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my money is still on no deal terms at the end of the transition period - not helped by the comments from the PM this morning.

Apparently there has been talk of an "Australian style" deal which is interesting as Australia doesn't currently have a trade deal with the EU. :rolleyes:
 

najaB

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my money is still on no deal terms at the end of the transition period - not helped by the comments from the PM this morning.
It's pretty clear that's the outcome he wants. For purely ideological reasons he rates getting a trade deal with the declining power that is the USA as more desirable than one with the EU.
 

Senex

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Interesting that the gutter press are branding this as the EU being two-faced. For example, the Express' banner is: "EU turncoats! Brussels now backs Spain bid for Gibraltar but Rock says ‘Britain backs us'"

Which completely ignores that while we were members then it was an internal family dispute and the collective position was that Britain's claim was stronger than Spain's. Now it's a dispute between an EU member state and a third country, so naturally they will back the member state. We chose to leave.

There's a good discussion of the matter here:
Indeed there would be something very wrong with the EU now if it did not choose to back Spain's claims—as in the forthcoming trade negotiations, Brussels must support as srongly as it possibly can the interests of its members, not those of the outsider.
 

Samuel88

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As someone with roots in the U.S I absolutely dread a trade deal with them. I’ve been inside a factory where chickens were chlorinated and just the smell put me off eating chicken when in the States....
 

dosxuk

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I'm sure that Three have already stated that they have no plans to reintroduce roaming charges while EE, Vodafone and O2 are undecided however that might just be for calls and texts, no idea on how data will be affected.

I for one use data a lot when aboard as I use Google Maps to find my way around so I hope we don't have to return to the days of paying £5+ a day for a data addon.

My suspicion is that it will become like the "free" roaming that several companies offer to outside the EU - EE have it to the US, Australia and a small number of other countries but that is only included in their higher rate contacts. I expect that free EU roaming will disappear at some point from the cheapest contacts, but still legitimately be advertised as something they offer.
 

Bantamzen

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It's pretty clear that's the outcome he wants. For purely ideological reasons he rates getting a trade deal with the declining power that is the USA as more desirable than one with the EU.

Ah yes, the "Special Relationship" that BoJo is putting so much stock in. Currently the Trump administration has made it clear that it is focused on "America First", and to be fair that is, well fair enough from their part. However you don't need to have more than a few brain cells to rub together to figure out that "America First" isn't going to be in our interest. Having had all the troubles that administration has had recently, and the various trade wars, the US economy is even more in the red (now over a Trillion Dollars in debt), and in particular it's farming business has been suffering to the point that the federal government has had to subsidise it.

So any trade deal that sees large amounts of treated meat quickly dumped, erm shipped over to Blightly gives the boy Trump his election year good news story, whilst we "enjoy" the benefits of cheap, low grade meat. I mean, what's not to like....??
 

dgl

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So any trade deal that sees large amounts of treated meat quickly dumped, erm shipped over to Blightly gives the boy Trump his election year good news story, whilst we "enjoy" the benefits of cheap, low grade meat. I mean, what's not to like....??

Yes, it will be put to the public that whilst we were in the EU we didn't have access to such cheap food and that it will mean cost savings to the least well off. Forget that such a move would decimate our farming industry. We have to question why American farmers can't sell their stuff to anyone else even when subsidies are used to make their produce cheaper.


The big problem we have here is that people like Johnson are not used to being told "no!" and have some idea that when someone does say no to them then they can bully them to make them say yes. What Johnson has to realise is that neither the EU or the countries we want trade deals with will put up for this and I hope Johnson realises this quickly and starts to make some concessions. The problem is he's removed all the people that could help him get a good deal and replaced them with nutters who couldn't care one iota. Plus Boris probably doesn't want a good deal with the EU as that might make them look like the good guys, get a bad deal and he can blame them for all the bad things that happen because of it, even if it's his fault.

To put it in some sort of railway analogy, He wants us to have a 'First Class' economy/country but to be in 'First Class' you have to pay and he is resisting, thus at risk of no only being chucked off or made to go to 'Standard Class' but having to pay a penalty
 

Bantamzen

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Yes, it will be put to the public that whilst we were in the EU we didn't have access to such cheap food and that it will mean cost savings to the least well off. Forget that such a move would decimate our farming industry. We have to question why American farmers can't sell their stuff to anyone else even when subsidies are used to make their produce cheaper.


The big problem we have here is that people like Johnson are not used to being told "no!" and have some idea that when someone does say no to them then they can bully them to make them say yes. What Johnson has to realise is that neither the EU or the countries we want trade deals with will put up for this and I hope Johnson realises this quickly and starts to make some concessions. The problem is he's removed all the people that could help him get a good deal and replaced them with nutters who couldn't care one iota. Plus Boris probably doesn't want a good deal with the EU as that might make them look like the good guys, get a bad deal and he can blame them for all the bad things that happen because of it, even if it's his fault.

To put it in some sort of railway analogy, He wants us to have a 'First Class' economy/country but to be in 'First Class' you have to pay and he is resisting, thus at risk of no only being chucked off or made to go to 'Standard Class' but having to pay a penalty

Many Americans, particularly in the middle classes but by no means exclusively are rapidly becoming very aware of many of the shortcomings in their food industries. At some I know Stateside are rapidly changing their shopping habits, snubbing supermarket bought cheap cuts for more locally sourced produce. That's good for the local farmers, but not so good for the giant factory farms that are suddenly finding a decreasing market, not helped in the least bit by Trump's various trade wars. So they are looking for a soft spot to cajole into buying their stuff....

Enter BoJo and the rest of his troop of clowns.... :{
 

Doppelganger

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Does it say that?
If this is what you mean, then yes it does say that, see links:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51345776

Britain will "not be aligning with EU rules" in any post-Brexit trade deal, the foreign secretary has said.

Dominic Raab argued agreeing to stick strongly with EU regulations would "defeat the point of Brexit".

But Irish PM Leo Varadkar said the UK needed to commit to a level playing field to get a free trade deal.

Talks to negotiate a free trade deal between the UK and the EU are due to start next month, following the UK's formal withdrawal from the bloc.

On Monday Boris Johnson is expected to set out his position ahead of those talks, where he will tell the EU he is prepared to accept customs checks at Britain's borders if he cannot secure the sort of trade deal he wants.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier will also outline his approach to negotiations.

One option the PM could support would be a Canada-style free trade deal which allows tariff-free trade for the majority of goods, but would not cover the UK's service industry - which accounts for more than 80% of UK jobs.

Reports in recent days have suggested EU chiefs want the UK to continue to follow EU rules on standards and state subsidies - while accepting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in any trade disputes.

The PM is expected to say that he will accept no alignment and no jurisdiction of the European courts when talks start in March.

He is also preparing to say he would rule out relaxing rules on workers' rights, food hygiene standards and environmental protections.

'Rigid red lines'
Speaking to the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, Mr Varadkar said it was possible for the UK to have a "Canada-style agreement".

However, he added: "Canada isn't the UK; you're geographically part of the European continent, we share seas and airspace and our economies are very integrated.

"And one thing we feel very strongly in the EU is that if we are going to have tariff-free, quota-free trade with the UK, which is essentially what we have with Canada on almost everything, then that needs to come with a level playing field.

"We, for example would have very strong views on fair competition and state aid."

A level playing field is a trade policy phrase for a set of common rules and standards that prevent businesses in one country undercutting their rivals over those operating in other countries in areas such as workers' rights and environmental protections.

He also cautioned against "setting rigid red lines" for the post-Brexit trade negotiations arguing "it makes coming to an agreement more difficult because the other side doesn't feel like it has got a fair deal unless those red lines are turned pink."

Mr Raab said the UK would enter trade talks "with a spirit of goodwill" but added "the legislative alignment - it just ain't happening".

Labour's John McDonnell said Mr Johnson's desire to diverge from EU rules "contradict" what the PM had previously said on protecting environmental, consumer and employment rights.

"On the one hand he said there will be [protections] on the other hand he is sabre-rattling saying that won't happen in the negotiations," he said.

But Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage welcomed the prime minister's approach arguing it was in the UK's "national interest" to be "a competitor on their [the EU's] doorstep."

The government also wants to make progress in striking free trade agreements with countries such as the United States, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

The EU's own approach to the negotiations needs to be agreed by all 27 member states - which would be unlikely to happen before the end of February.

While the UK officially left the EU at 23:00 GMT on Friday, it will remain wedded to EU rules during a transition period which ends in December this year.

The UK can request an extension to this transition period, but Mr Johnson has previously said he will not do so.

And

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1111042/

Britain will not align with European Union rules after Brexit, the UK's Home Secretary has insisted, as the country prepares to leave the bloc on Friday.

Priti Patel said Britain would take back control of its laws, money and borders and will diverge from EU rules as it carves out free trade agreements.

The European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has warned that the UK's access to the single market would be weakened if it diverged from Brussels' rules.

But Ms Patel, in an interview with Sky's Sophy Ridge On Sunday, said: "In terms of divergence, we are not having alignment. We will be diverging. We want to take control of our laws, money and our borders.

"And to do that we will not be rule-takers - we will be setting our own laws and that is a fundamental feature of leaving the European Union."

However Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay appeared to adopt a softer approach, saying the UK would not diverge "just for the sake of it".

He told BBC One's The Andrew Marr Show: "We're coming out of the single market, we're coming out of the customs union. We're not just going to diverge just for the sake of it - we need to look at where the opportunities are.

"But it is true that we are going to have control of our approach to regulation and that's the very essence of Brexit: that we can do things differently, particularly where, for example, there is innovation, there is new technologies, there's things where we want to move quickly.

"Brexit at its very core is that we will have control of our laws, our regulation and that is why we can't be a rule-taker: we need to have that opportunity."

He said the UK's objective is to have a zero-tariff, zero-quota, ambitious trade policy - but to do that in "parallel in our talks with the rest of the world - and in particular with the US".

Business groups have raised concerns about the prospect of divergence from the single market, after the Chancellor Sajid Javid said last weekend there would not be alignment.

Their comments came as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Britain will become a global, trail-blazing country after it leaves the EU and unveiled the government's full plans to mark Brexit day.

Mr Johnson said he will "look ahead with confidence" to the future on Friday when the UK formally leaves the bloc - nearly four years since the referendum.

He will deliver a special address to the nation to mark the historic day and Downing Street will be illuminated with a light display designed to symbolise the strength and unity of the UK's four nations.
 
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jon0844

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I'm sure that Three have already stated that they have no plans to reintroduce roaming charges while EE, Vodafone and O2 are undecided however that might just be for calls and texts, no idea on how data will be affected.

I for one use data a lot when aboard as I use Google Maps to find my way around so I hope we don't have to return to the days of paying £5+ a day for a data addon.

I'm hearing from one network (which I will not name as it's very early days) that we may see an ending of EU roaming, but still enjoy roaming with partner networks - much like was available before.

That could mean some EU countries won't have free roaming. Others may have the choice of just one network for free roaming, or possibly reduced rates. Remember; not all networks are global, and it won't just be a EU deal, it will be deals with individual networks in individual member states.

We've had rates of £8/MB (MB not GB) in the past, and I would hope we'd never go back to that sort of nonsense given modern data requirements and expectations, but networks that said they had no plans to change things are, shock horror, now beginning to make plans.

Remember, data is what most of us want. And besides data caps, there is also throttling to consider. Artificial caps on speed, or even the blocking of certain services (such as HD video streaming).

My suspicion is that it will become like the "free" roaming that several companies offer to outside the EU - EE have it to the US, Australia and a small number of other countries but that is only included in their higher rate contacts. I expect that free EU roaming will disappear at some point from the cheapest contacts, but still legitimately be advertised as something they offer.

That is quite possible.

Currently in the EU there is acceptance that unlimited data plans can have some limits imposed, as well as restrictions for those who have, say an EE plan in the UK but actually live in another member state (3 months before you must re-register on your home network I believe).

The limit is to the amount of data you can use in any given month. Often around 15-20GB. On plans that do have a limit in the UK, say a Vodafone Red 60GB plan, you can use all 60GB abroad.

The EU mandates that the data cannot be throttled. You are also free to tether, so great for business users with laptops that need to get online, or getting the kids onto Netflix. Oh, and remember that EU law also means you can watch iPlayer or Sky Sports when on holiday.

I really do think we'll see many restrictions on data (but maybe we can now pay more to lift said restrictions), and almost certainly won't be able to watch our TV when roaming.

I am not sure of any benefits that will come of it. We lose many things and gain nothing.
 
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Aictos

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I do remember travelling in Germany and the USA before it became a Feel Like Home destination that I had to take multiple screenshots of journeys in Google Maps using hotel WiFi and hope for the best that I didn’t get lost, that if paying for daily data packages which can add up.

When Europe got rid of the roaming charges it was long overdue however it’s likely they come back.

I did btw search for data sims etc for Europe and found one from Orange which sounded pretty good.

No idea how good they are for coverage in Europe tho?

And just for the record, data aboard I rather use it for Google Maps, social media and looking up places to go - watching tv shows I can easily download before I travel.
 

jon0844

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I do remember travelling in Germany and the USA before it became a Feel Like Home destination that I had to take multiple screenshots of journeys in Google Maps using hotel WiFi and hope for the best that I didn’t get lost, that if paying for daily data packages which can add up.

When Europe got rid of the roaming charges it was long overdue however it’s likely they come back.

I did btw search for data sims etc for Europe and found one from Orange which sounded pretty good.

No idea how good they are for coverage in Europe tho?

And just for the record, data aboard I rather use it for Google Maps, social media and looking up places to go - watching tv shows I can easily download before I travel.

Some new phones have eSIMs so you can sign up to foreign networks easily, but the prices are VERY high. Intended more for those outside Europe (or those outside Europe coming here) the big issue is that there's always someone that wants a cut. Operators who supply handsets with an eSIM are after a percentage of any additional subscription, and I think the EU and elsewhere are still discussing how this might work.

I would expect that the EU will probably seek to prevent profiteering, but of course we won't benefit here.

The practice of seeking out a phone shop when you arrive may return. A right PITA (and getting a SIM at an airport will cost stupid money) and in some places you can't get one without having a local address.

So paying hefty fees may become normal for those having one or two holidays in a EU country, as people won't take the time to get a good deal when they arrive - or before they go.

Still, I know that despite roaming fees actually being something people DID moan about before 2016 (when Europe was barely mentioned at all), we are all now to believe that when you go abroad you don't need a phone.
 
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