tbtc
Veteran Member
Virgin were very keen to lengthen many of their Voyagers to six coaches, and they even had an option to lengthen them, so flexibility with Bombardier wasn't the issue - they were built to be extended. The problem was that ultimately, the SRA blocked the investment in the new coaches despite Princess generating 40% passenger growth in 4 months, which nobody could have predicted in the first place.
I don't think the comparisons with Princess are particularly valid anyway, remember Princess was launched in the aftermath of the Railtrack collapse and passenger numbers had taken a hit after Hatfield - the industry is in a very different, and much better place nowadays, IEP is about catering for additional passenger numbers in the coming years after consistent year on year increase over the past decade, there's no reason for it to be Princess Mark 2.
If anything Princess wasn't a failure, rather a victim of it's own success
Fair enough, but the point I was trying to make was that other TOCs introduced short(ish) trains as part of frequency enhancements but these were extended (or replaced by longer trains).
London to Hull went up from three coach 170s to four coach 222s to five coach 180s
London to Derby/ Nottingham (etc) went up from two coach 170s to three coach 107s to four coach 222s (some of which were further extended by inserting carriages intended for nine coach 222s)
London to Cardiff went up from five coach 180s to full length HSTs.
It's become Received Wisdom amongst enthusiasts that Princess was a uniquely terrible idea. Actually it was similar to what other TOCs were doing at the time - the difference is that those other TOCs introduced extra capacity once they saw passenger numbers going up.
So whilst it's fashionable to say something like "five coach IEPs are terrible because we all know what happened with Operation Princess", the big difference is that IEP is being introduced with scope for trains to be lengthened in the future.
If 5x26m isn't long enough then we can make it 9x26m because we won't be decimating the production line once the first batch are built.
The question then is how adaptable is the GW IEP fleet? Supposing for a moment that the currently planned fleet proves to be adequate for demand when introduced, what happens if demand increases on services booked for 5-car sets beyond the capacity of a 5-car set? Sure, they could be lengthened to 6-or-7-car, but then they wouldn't be able to run in multiple. That might not be a problem if the fleet hadn't been ordered with multiple working in mind, but that isn't the case. If you could convert driving vehicles to intermediate coaches that wouldn't be an issue, but obviously you can't, it'd be far too difficult to design driving vehicles which could be converted. You'd be left with a number of surplus sets, probably too few to be of use for a cascade (except to another operator already using the same rolling stock and needing additional sets at a similar time)
250m stock will be needed east of Reading.
So any plan for six/ seven coach trains would mean a reduction in seats at the busiest end of the route.
What's your answer then?
- Remove three carriages at the London end (to ensure there's one additional carriage at the "country" end)?
- Build everything as nine coaches long from day one (which means it'll take a lot longer until HSTs can be cascaded away onto secondary duties)?
- Accept compromise and the "5+5=9" approach, whereby two five coach units give flexibility as well as a consistent number of seats with a nine coach train.
If you'd rather have a six coach train for the sake of Gloucester/ Hereford/ Weston Super Mare (which means going down from nine to six at London) then that's not a solution.
(we'll be ordering further batches to cope with further electrification, so the surfeit of driving vehicles isn't going to be around for long - given transpennine electrification in the shortish term/ Midland Mainline electrification in the medium term, XC electrification in the longer term, HST replacement in Scotland, Open Access proposals etc)