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GWR West Fleet IEP Cascade Update

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tbtc

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Virgin were very keen to lengthen many of their Voyagers to six coaches, and they even had an option to lengthen them, so flexibility with Bombardier wasn't the issue - they were built to be extended. The problem was that ultimately, the SRA blocked the investment in the new coaches despite Princess generating 40% passenger growth in 4 months, which nobody could have predicted in the first place.

I don't think the comparisons with Princess are particularly valid anyway, remember Princess was launched in the aftermath of the Railtrack collapse and passenger numbers had taken a hit after Hatfield - the industry is in a very different, and much better place nowadays, IEP is about catering for additional passenger numbers in the coming years after consistent year on year increase over the past decade, there's no reason for it to be Princess Mark 2.

If anything Princess wasn't a failure, rather a victim of it's own success

Fair enough, but the point I was trying to make was that other TOCs introduced short(ish) trains as part of frequency enhancements but these were extended (or replaced by longer trains).

London to Hull went up from three coach 170s to four coach 222s to five coach 180s

London to Derby/ Nottingham (etc) went up from two coach 170s to three coach 107s to four coach 222s (some of which were further extended by inserting carriages intended for nine coach 222s)

London to Cardiff went up from five coach 180s to full length HSTs.

It's become Received Wisdom amongst enthusiasts that Princess was a uniquely terrible idea. Actually it was similar to what other TOCs were doing at the time - the difference is that those other TOCs introduced extra capacity once they saw passenger numbers going up.

So whilst it's fashionable to say something like "five coach IEPs are terrible because we all know what happened with Operation Princess", the big difference is that IEP is being introduced with scope for trains to be lengthened in the future.

If 5x26m isn't long enough then we can make it 9x26m because we won't be decimating the production line once the first batch are built.

The question then is how adaptable is the GW IEP fleet? Supposing for a moment that the currently planned fleet proves to be adequate for demand when introduced, what happens if demand increases on services booked for 5-car sets beyond the capacity of a 5-car set? Sure, they could be lengthened to 6-or-7-car, but then they wouldn't be able to run in multiple. That might not be a problem if the fleet hadn't been ordered with multiple working in mind, but that isn't the case. If you could convert driving vehicles to intermediate coaches that wouldn't be an issue, but obviously you can't, it'd be far too difficult to design driving vehicles which could be converted. You'd be left with a number of surplus sets, probably too few to be of use for a cascade (except to another operator already using the same rolling stock and needing additional sets at a similar time)

250m stock will be needed east of Reading.

So any plan for six/ seven coach trains would mean a reduction in seats at the busiest end of the route.

What's your answer then?

  • Remove three carriages at the London end (to ensure there's one additional carriage at the "country" end)?
  • Build everything as nine coaches long from day one (which means it'll take a lot longer until HSTs can be cascaded away onto secondary duties)?
  • Accept compromise and the "5+5=9" approach, whereby two five coach units give flexibility as well as a consistent number of seats with a nine coach train.

If you'd rather have a six coach train for the sake of Gloucester/ Hereford/ Weston Super Mare (which means going down from nine to six at London) then that's not a solution.

(we'll be ordering further batches to cope with further electrification, so the surfeit of driving vehicles isn't going to be around for long - given transpennine electrification in the shortish term/ Midland Mainline electrification in the medium term, XC electrification in the longer term, HST replacement in Scotland, Open Access proposals etc)
 
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Philip Phlopp

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As far as I am aware, there's no frequency enhancement planned for the London-Swansea services yet currently they are practically guaranteed to be 8 coaches and in future that is not guaranteed. I would hope therefore that my concern about the 5-car sets is understandable, although I admit that my fears that these will be inadequate may yet prove unfounded (particularly if W&B franchise services are improved or if more of the 9-car IEP sets are used on south Wales services).

Your concern about 5 car sets is understandable, but does every HST services between Bristol, say and Swansea carry more than 300 passengers ?

From what I've read, you're basically demanding 8 car trains on every service, despite it not being necessary on every service.

You'll just need to wait and see the additional capacity and the demand balanced formations in action. They've been ordered, they're being built, repeatedly trying to find criticism (where none exists) is getting tiresome.

Just another angle for you to consider...

If nothing else, being able to drop 5 cars at Bristol on a lighter loaded London to Swansea service has significant benefits for passengers too. If the rear 5 vehicles detach at Parkway and head off to Stoke Gifford depot just along the road, engineers will have near as damn it two extra hours over the whole lot going off to Swansea for maintenance.

That can be the difference between a unit with damage or a failed component still sitting on the depot at 6am the next morning or the unit being ready for a run into Paddington on a peak time service. It can be the difference between a service operating and a cancellation.

IEP will wipe the floor when it comes to reliability - the Class 395 is a fantastic package - a six vehicle dual voltage 140mph electric unit with multiple signalling systems should be a recipe for low reliability and high levels of delays, in reality it's amongst the most reliable stock operating in the UK. IEP once it settles down, is going to absolutely thrash HST's reliability and mileage per casualty figures. Net effect - even more units in service on a daily basis and much less disruption from failures.
 

jimm

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Virgin were very keen to lengthen many of their Voyagers to six coaches, and they even had an option to lengthen them, so flexibility with Bombardier wasn't the issue - they were built to be extended. The problem was that ultimately, the SRA blocked the investment in the new coaches despite Princess generating 40% passenger growth in 4 months, which nobody could have predicted in the first place.

I don't think the comparisons with Princess are particularly valid anyway, remember Princess was launched in the aftermath of the Railtrack collapse and passenger numbers had taken a hit after Hatfield - the industry is in a very different, and much better place nowadays, IEP is about catering for additional passenger numbers in the coming years after consistent year on year increase over the past decade, there's no reason for it to be Princess Mark 2.

If anything Princess wasn't a failure, rather a victim of it's own success

What makes you say no one could have predicted the growth? They doubled the frequency of services on the core parts of the network with practically no increase in overall seating capacity per hour - could they really not see what would happen?

There were plenty of examples from the mid-1980s onwards where Regional Railways, NSE and private franchises had improved services in similar ways, albeit not on a nationwide scale, but almost always with a decent increase in seating capacity as part of the package, and seen business take off in a matter of months.

Most of the basic planning was done and the order for the Voyagers placed well before the Railtrack collapse and Hatfield - and the Operation Princess timetable was launched two years after those events.

Not sure how you define success. Seeing three late-running 220s chasing each other north out of Oxford in the space of 15 minutes one evening in the late autumn of 2002 - with my train home stuck behind them - is my abiding memory of Operation Princess. I doubt it is viewed as a success in Liverpool, Cardiff or other towns and cities that lost long-distance services to places other than London over the course of the following year.

As for south Wales, it's sort-of my 'home patch' and as such I'm particularly keen to see that services improve, or at least don't deteriorate. As far as I am aware, there's no frequency enhancement planned for the London-Swansea services yet currently they are practically guaranteed to be 8 coaches and in future that is not guaranteed. I would hope therefore that my concern about the 5-car sets is understandable, although I admit that my fears that these will be inadequate may yet prove unfounded (particularly if W&B franchise services are improved or if more of the 9-car IEP sets are used on south Wales services).

There will be three peak trains per hour between South Wales and London from December 2018. I'd call that an enhancement.

One of the slides in the stakeholder presentation GWR used at the start of the current direct award last year has a diagrammatic map of the high-speed services post-December 2018 and one of the 'peak-hour variations' marked on that map is the route into South Wales, with the line going all the way to Swansea... and the depot where the trains will start and finish their day's work is in Swansea. So there might just be some extra trains to and from Swansea.

A near-identical slide was used in this presentation to Travelwatch South West last October, on page 8

http://travelwatchsouthwest.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Travelwatch-Presentation-October-2015.pdf

So what if all London-Swansea services have eight coaches now. It doesn't mean they actually need all eight coaches to handle demand outside the peaks, does it?
 
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159220

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Thank you for sharing. I am surprised that there seems to be many more Westcountry bound 2 x 5 coach services than back to London. What is most of interest is that the 16:57 and 17:57 are 5 coach services. These currently, as the 17.08 and 18.03 are often full 8 coach HST out of Exeter and it certainly is known more often than not when I travel to be standing by Taunton around the weekend peak.

Okay, I see that they are surrounded by a 2 x 5 coach at 15:57, at 16.05 9 coach (surely more uniform timetable is 16.30), a 5 coach 17.30 and a 9 coach 18.57.

Not to much of a worry for me, because the current 17.08 and 18.03 are full, I take the 19.06 and usually enjoy the Pullman service which I suspect shall continue on the 9 coach AT300 at 18.57.

But one would of thought the peak 16:57 and 17:57 need to be 2 x 5 coach. Unless I mistaken, but would I be correct to understand one of the IEP diagrams is for peak Exeter St Davids via Bristol? This might help, if at 16.30 and 18.30!

If we cannot enlighten ourselves here, I shall ask my GWR contact who shall assist. (or be grumpy such a timetable has been publicly released)

Eitherway, I cannot wait for the full AT300 service down to the Westcountry and how brilliant Paddington to Exeter in 2 hrs!

I'll pass the thanks to my colleague and contact (neither GWR employees). As mentioned, it's nothing official whatsoever, just a possible timetable reflecting the key headlines that are in the public domain (hourly Reading to Taunton fast, bi-hourly Padddington to Exeter semi-fast) and how that may be achievable with the 21 X 5-car and 7 X 9-car AT-300s which will also cover several North Cotswold services.

I suppose 5-car units on up early evening services could be a reality to allow all peak services leaving London to be 2x5 or 1x9 as promised.

Ahh! I am sorry, the timetable presented came with the sense of being from senior management within GWR!

Thought it was odd, though a welcomed suggestion of a generally much improved service. The critical Westcountry to London afternoon peaks shall be 2 x 5 or 1 x 9 car from what GWR have told me, along with 9 car mainly operating the semi-fasts as far as Exeter St Davids or Plymouth. Though things might of evolved.

I will drop them an email and see, but I wouldn't break their confidence and share publicly. I shall PM you if there is a hint of accuracy to your outsider GWR proposed timetable.

There shall also be a peak IEP timetabled service to/from Exeter.
 

Clarence Yard

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Ahh! I am sorry, the timetable presented came with the sense of being from senior management within GWR!

Thought it was odd, though a welcomed suggestion of a generally much improved service. The critical Westcountry to London afternoon peaks shall be 2 x 5 or 1 x 9 car from what GWR have told me, along with 9 car mainly operating the semi-fasts as far as Exeter St Davids or Plymouth. Though things might of evolved.

I will drop them an email and see, but I wouldn't break their confidence and share publicly. I shall PM you if there is a hint of accuracy to your outsider GWR proposed timetable.

There shall also be a peak IEP timetabled service to/from Exeter.

Your second paragraph is absolutely on the money. The unofficial timetable tabled here was a good guess but had several "issues" with it, especially on the Up where it varies from what is actually planned by a large degree.

There are several important pieces of AT300 work to be done before the real timetable can be put to bed. Validation of point to point times, fuel ranges assumptions, etc, etc. But key peak trains out of Exeter on the Up are currently planned to be 9 or 10 car, not 5.

The danger of unofficial timetables is that they are thought to be real. This one isn't and shouldn't be regarded as such. The important one is what the DA bid team is developing for submission and final agreement from the DfT. Full detail of that is therefore being kept very quiet, even from colleagues within GWR.
 

Xavi

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Your second paragraph is absolutely on the money. The unofficial timetable tabled here was a good guess but had several "issues" with it, especially on the Up where it varies from what is actually planned by a large degree.

There are several important pieces of AT300 work to be done before the real timetable can be put to bed. Validation of point to point times, fuel ranges assumptions, etc, etc. But key peak trains out of Exeter on the Up are currently planned to be 9 or 10 car, not 5.

The danger of unofficial timetables is that they are thought to be real. This one isn't and shouldn't be regarded as such. The important one is what the DA bid team is developing for submission and final agreement from the DfT. Full detail of that is therefore being kept very quiet, even from colleagues within GWR.

Makes sense what you say and is similar to the discussion I had a week or so ago. The 9 or 10-car peak services (up am, down pm) is essentially what everything else has to work around. So far easier to make a good (slightly) informed guess at the down evening peak than the up.

As always stated, the timetable is unofficial and almost wholly based on information that has been publicised in one form or another. If the real deal is anything like the guess (it sounds as though there are similarities) then most travellers will be delighted.

Anything that helps to dispel the idea that there's going to be some kind of inferior service in the future is hopefully a good thing!

9-cars on the semi-fasts also makes sense. I recall hearing the same back when the AT-300 was ordered and I think I posted a comment to that effect.
 
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jayah

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What huge ramp-up in the middle of the day? The argument that certain people have been advancing on this forum for years is that there would be next to no extra off-peak trains and that with HSTs being replaced by five-coach sets (never mind all the unsplittable nine-car sets that are also on order), there would be overcrowding all round. But now there is supposed to be a 'huge ramp-up'...:roll:

Perhaps you mean extra off-peak trains to Bristol, which are aimed at spreading out loadings and providing a service from city centre to city centre where people don't need to look at a timetable or journey planner and just turn up and step on to a train that is already waiting in the platform? That is the only route where there will be more than 2tph off-peak - and the 4tph will be split west of Swindon anyway, with two via Bath and two via Parkway.

Or do you mean the Gloucester and Cheltenham service going hourly through to and from London all day rather than passengers being stuck on a dmu to or from Swindon every other hour at present? Or the extra semi-fasts to and from Devon on the Berks & Hants?

Are these changes supposed to be a bad thing? I doubt passengers will think so. And what I have outlined above hardly amounts to a 'huge ramp-up of services in the relatively quiet middle of the daytime...

I am referring principally to Westbury and Exeter as per topic but Bristol is equally true.

I am sure it is great for passengers, after all they are not paying. As I illustrated for WC it is economic madness and will cost the taxpayer a fortune. The extra demand does not come close to matching the additional costs.

The NR credit card has been revoked and with their debt nearing £50bn, pretty soon reality is going to catch up with the industry.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Usually one or more of the following:

Train's structure is starting to reach critical levels of strength, either due to corrosion or fatigue.

Parts are starting to come into short supply and are no longer made/available to purchase.

Costs are starting to rise as larger items come up for replacement (like bogies, engines, etc), or as mods are needed to make it compliant with modern standards

No longer fit for purpose (eg if you want to go to a higher frequency service but are stuck with trains whose performance wouldn't allow for this)


In much the same way that running a car from 1978 as a daily driver is very expensive and impractical, so is running a train from that era.

So which of the above applies to HST trailers? Overused IMO. Everyone wants shiny and new if someone else is paying...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
You're complaining about the number of long empty trains off-peak and also complaining about IEP giving operators the flexibility to vary the lengths of off peak services?

You can't deny that the increase in off peak frequencies has seen an increase in passenger demand?

Also the "seas on a four coach 158" needs to consider the seats taken out of it for at least two "universal" toilets, since old stock will have to be upgraded in a couple of years to accommodate these larger toilets (and therefore lose a few seats).

The solution to empty Pendolinos at 3tph on WC is not to double the number of cabs in the fleet and shorten the trains. The solution to 3hr London Plymouth is not to skip a couple of stations and run one train per 2hr from London to Exeter to cover Castle Cary and Tiverton. 5 cars is not being used to vary off peak train lengths, it is being used to run loss making trains that should not be running at all.

I am not for one moment denying more people would travel, but it will cost the industry and taxpayer a bomb because it is uneconomic.

BTW who has dictated a 140 seat 158 needs two universal toilets?
 

Class 170101

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The industry complained about running HST sets on the GWML for pretty much every day of those 4 years as a result, just as it's complaining about the decision to retain 5 IC225 (6 vehicle) sets for the ECML because nobody has yet managed to reach agreement on 5 additional 5 car IEP sets. That's how fast IEP is on electric - a 4.8MW LHCS trainset can't keep up with IEP with 9 carriages and the DVT, it needs to drop 3 carriages to meet IEP timings on the ECML, and IC225 is significantly faster than HST on the ECML (and always was, even before GNER lengthened the HST sets to 2+9).

Whats the penalty with IC225 (short) over IEP will it actually work leaving Edinburgh? Also does the IEP end up catching Scotrail services to North Berwick when departing Edinburgh?

The engine is not the issue - both the MTU4000 and VP185 are down-rated for the HST to match the 2,250hp. The prohibitive bit is that you need a new electrical system - they tried 2,400hp in the MB190s and set fire to 43169 as a result - and probably a new, bigger cooler group.

I understood the Mark IIIs also require some structural work concerning corrision for serious life extension.

Your concern about 5 car sets is understandable, but does every HST services between Bristol, say and Swansea carry more than 300 passengers ?

If nothing else, being able to drop 5 cars at Bristol on a lighter loaded London to Swansea service has significant benefits for passengers too. If the rear 5 vehicles detach at Parkway and head off to Stoke Gifford depot just along the road, engineers will have near as damn it two extra hours over the whole lot going off to Swansea for maintenance.

How about a split also to serve different destinations? The core route requires 10 cars but the extremities only require half a train yet still warrant through trains to / from London.
 

43074

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Not sure how you define success. Seeing three late-running 220s chasing each other north out of Oxford in the space of 15 minutes one evening in the late autumn of 2002 - with my train home stuck behind them - is my abiding memory of Operation Princess. I doubt it is viewed as a success in Liverpool, Cardiff or other towns and cities that lost long-distance services to places other than London over the course of the following year

It was successful in that the core idea of Princess - half hourly services from Birmingham to Newcastle, Reading, Manchester and Bristol are still there today, and in that it increased passenger numbers, yes. There is still insufficient capacity on many XC services, hence my suggesting it wasn't a failure, rather a victim of its own success.

The solution to empty Pendolinos at 3tph on WC is not to double the number of cabs in the fleet and shorten the trains. The solution to 3hr London Plymouth is not to skip a couple of stations and run one train per 2hr from London to Exeter to cover Castle Cary and Tiverton. 5 cars is not being used to vary off peak train lengths, it is being used to run loss making trains that should not be running at all.

I am not for one moment denying more people would travel, but it will cost the industry and taxpayer a bomb because it is uneconomic.

The idea with the 1tp2h from Paddington to Exeter is to allow the hourly Plymouth services to run non-stop from Reading to Taunton, and hence reduce journey times further, which in theory increases GWR's revenue from Taunton and stations West. Whether or not the additional revenue generated by doing this covers the costs of the additional Exeter services isn't for me to comment, but I should think revenue generated from seasons between Westbury/Pewsey/Newbury and London alone means that overall it shouldn't be too far off.
 

SpacePhoenix

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BTW who has dictated a 140 seat 158 needs two universal toilets?

The quote you refer to mentions a 4 car class 158 which will actually be formed of 2 2car class 158s, each of them units will have a universal toilet
 

Philip Phlopp

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So which of the above applies to HST trailers? Overused IMO. Everyone wants shiny and new if someone else is paying...

What's wrong with the HST trailers ?

Corrosion. Accessibility. Wiring. Performance. Fatigue. Maintenance.

Corrosion is the main problem, only the best vehicles will be taken forward to be fitted with power doors. They've suffered significant corrosion at the vehicle ends for years, principally from the unsealed gangways, from the doors, from the water tanks in the roof space and from the human sewage coating the underside of the vehicles.

That has needed significant corrosion repair in the trailer end roof voids, around the gangways, and underneath the vestibule floors (both inside and out) with a number of vehicles suffering significant corrosion on the bogie pivot point. We've seen a few vehicles being cut because of corrosion issues.

This bogie design isn't brilliant and provokes ballast pick-up, which has destroyed the underbody skirts (most are on their second set of skirts and a third set will be needed for those vehicles being used in future). The loss of rotten parts of the underbody skirts at speed is the usual reason for air pipe failures.

The bogie design ballast pickup also hits the wheelslip protection wiring, VTEC are investing in additional ballistic protection for this to cut failures. WSP failures cause wheelflats which in return need more vehicles out of service for wheel turning.

Accessibility

They need power doors fitted or significant modification to the slam door to allow the doors to be opened from the inside.

They also need passenger information systems installed and quite probably a digital seat reservation system to fit in with the looming digitisation of seat reservation.

That's work which starts to become really rather expensive, and is likely to uncover numerous additional problems which may require further remedial action over and above that which is budgeted.

The sensible option to continue HST use for more than a handful of years is shotblast each bodyshell back to bare metal, do the necessary metal thickness testing and then decide which bodyshells aren't suitable for reuse.

Wiring will need replaced or significantly modified to provide power for power doors, where they're chosen to be fitted. If additional toilet modules are added or removed, there's further modification to wiring to be undertaken. That's a lot of work and a lot of time necessary to design, manufacture and rewire new wiring looms for each vehicle.

Performance will always be an issue unless you double the installed power in the powercars, with new engines, new alternators, new traction motors, new bogies and new cooler groups. That's a new locomotive at each end of the formation. And they still cannot do 140mph.

When you cannot fit an extra train or two per hour on already busy sections of railway it just kills any capacity enhancement, so increasing accelerative performance is a massively important piece of the puzzle in increasing capacity. The most you could do is take over Mark 3 stock from elsewhere (but where, since we don't want to retire Mark 3 stock) and add 1 more vehicle into the Great Western HST formations. That comes at the cost of slower acceleration though and more pathing constraints.

Fatigue has been an issue in the past and will again become an issue to contend with. The bogies will not last forever, the metal will become too thin, they'll need parts re-machined and ultimately they'll be at ever increasing risk of failing their ultrasonic/NDT inspections.

The alternative is new bogies, which you'll probably need if upgrading the traction motors on the power cars, but new bogies, perhaps light weight lower axle loading inside frame bogies for the trailers would be viable and possibly essential if you're to get considerably longer life out of HST. It would lower the track access costs, but they're already negligible on trailers anyway.

Maintenance is the killer blow - keeping 8 or 9 vehicles together and sending them to remote parts of the network on late arriving and early departing services reduces the amount of time that's available to maintain 11 vehicles, being able to drop off 5 vehicles as the service goes by a depot is brilliant and will only serve to increase reliability and availability.

The mixture of bi-mode and all electric stock with a mix of both types on different diagrams is going to allow a unit with a failed diesel power pack to continue on in service on electric power rather than having to come out of service. That could be at Edinburgh as an example, where a unit arriving from London can't continue to Aberdeen, but a unit arriving from Inverness or Aberdeen can be swapped over - inconvenient, undoubtedly, but not service cancelling inconvenient.

And units with AC traction motors are inherently more reliable than locomotives/power cars with DC motors. IEP is going to really improve on the HST and IC225 reliability providing fewer in service failures and better availability. Hitachi have put together a really incredibly well engineered package with excellent design and excellent maintainability.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Whats the penalty with IC225 (short) over IEP will it actually work leaving Edinburgh? Also does the IEP end up catching Scotrail services to North Berwick when departing Edinburgh?

IC225 in short formation is in short formation to match IEP timings - much like 2+5 HST sets matching Voyager timings on the XC timetable.

IEP will be following AT200 stock into Edinburgh, they should be slightly faster accelerating compared to IEP being geared for lower speeds, and the rest is down to pathing.
 

NotATrainspott

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Whats the penalty with IC225 (short) over IEP will it actually work leaving Edinburgh? Also does the IEP end up catching Scotrail services to North Berwick when departing Edinburgh?.

NR are aware of the issues running east of Edinburgh and have produced a series of proposals in their Scotland Route Study. One suggested improvement is to move Drem station eastwards onto the loops and have all trains to/from North Berwick use the Up platform. Another more intensive improvement would be to rebuild Wallyford and Prestonpans stations onto a long overtaking loop, so that an express following right behind a stopper can accelerate through the section and overtake without the stopper having to wait.
 

route:oxford

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Another more intensive improvement would be to rebuild Wallyford and Prestonpans stations onto a long overtaking loop, so that an express following right behind a stopper can accelerate through the section and overtake without the stopper having to wait.

That sounds like the best long-term proposal.
 

Rhydgaled

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250m stock will be needed east of Reading.
.......
  • Remove three carriages at the London end (to ensure there's one additional carriage at the "country" end)?
  • Build everything as nine coaches long from day one (which means it'll take a lot longer until HSTs can be cascaded away onto secondary duties)?
  • Accept compromise and the "5+5=9" approach, whereby two five coach units give flexibility as well as a consistent number of seats with a nine coach train.

If you'd rather have a six coach train for the sake of Gloucester/ Hereford/ Weston Super Mare (which means going down from nine to six at London) then that's not a solution.
Just to be clear, you are saying that it isn't possible to seat over 326 passengers at places like Cheltenham and Worcester without having passengers standing at the London end or going all the way up to a 9-car train?

What's your answer then?
If the class 387s etc. aren't going to keep enough short-distance travelers off the IEPs and every IEP out of London needs over 600 seats, then in my opinion an all 9-car fleet it has to be. This would of course result in lots of empty seats on quieter parts of the network, but that would be the case even with 5-car sets available as any demand of 327-567 passengers cannot be accomadated on a single 5-car set and would have to be a 9-car or 2x5-car formation.

If you can keep enough short-distance passengers off the Intercity services out of PAD to allow a number of shorter Intercity services (such as the 180s operated today), then it makes more sense to have a mix of lengths and diagram appropriate length trains to each service.

There will be three peak trains per hour between South Wales and London from December 2018. I'd call that an enhancement.
I must admit that I overlooked that limited enhancement between Cardiff and London, but Swansea already has 2tph to London in the (London) peaks, so only two Welsh stations (Cardiff and Newport) are actually certain to see a frequency enhancement.

So what if all London-Swansea services have eight coaches now. It doesn't mean they actually need all eight coaches to handle demand outside the peaks, does it?
You are right, it doesn't mean they need 8 coaches, but it doesn't mean they don't either. SEWTA thinks they need 8 coaches, all-day on weekends and at peak times on weekdays.
 

Dave1987

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Hitachi have put together a really incredibly well engineered package with excellent design and excellent maintainability.

Again Philip I think you have slightly bigged up Hitachi a bit much there. They are simply following the airliner concept of LRU's so they spend the minimum time possible in maintenance depots. It will simply be changing boxes and then sending those components off to manufacturer for any proper maintenance that needs to take place. Like I said before the packaging will have all been done using CAD and CFD. They may well have an product that is easily maintainable and probably reliable but they certainly haven't pioneered the concepts they are using. Also they are being paid a vast amount of money for these trains to be bulletproof so again if they do top the reliability charts then that's only what everyone is expecting. Comparing a train that's be designed with all the tools available to designers today to one that was designed in the 70's is a bit ridiculous to be honest.
 

Taunton

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A few comments.

The Western lines, more than most, have an issue with passenger loads falling off well before the end of the run, and it's not only a Paddington to Swansea where 25% of the load get out at Reading. A Penzance service stops at Castle Cary and the seats of those getting off are probably never sat in again. This doesn't afflict the Euston/Kings Cross lines to the same extent.

I really believe the rot set in, from the old Bristol TM/Bath/Paddington nonstop service when privatisation split things up between the long distance and the Thames Valley operations, whereupon the long distance operator decided they were going to grab additional revenue for themselves from the regional operator by stopping much more at Reading, Didcot, even Slough. I agree it has become a grand outer-suburban service, but what is poor is that it is provided by long distance trains.

Having 2 x 5 car sets seems to me an ideal approach, but I believe the privatisation financial model doesn't allow for that and we will end up with the 180 saga all over again (remember when those first came along, on Paddington to Bristol) and just have 5 car sets on the whole run because whoever the franchise operator is gets charged by the car by the mile. Everyone boarding at Reading has to stand, while returning from Paddington only the experienced/fleet of foot grab a seat first, and old granny heading for Taunton has to stand for the first part of the journey. Likewise the high-paying business traveller (me) who rushes from their meeting and gets to Paddington with 5 minutes to go.

Meanwhile the "big train" right through to Penzance or Swansea or Hereford is commonly mostly empty for the latter half of the run. Swansea is especially silly, where the hourly service all the way from Newport is preceded about 10 minutes earlier by the ATW 2-car service which scoops up most who might wait for the HST. What a lack of joined up thinking.

If refreshments are going to be by trolley service the constant crowding at the east end of the line will regularly prevent that getting through.

Regarding the possibility of additional cars later, that doesn't work either in financial terms after the initial purchase, mainly because financial models shows that the deterrent factor of standing is not enough to assure extra revenue all day, every day, to cover the cost of additional vehicles. It was this that did in the case for additional Voyager vehicles some years ago.

There are a number of stations on the line where it is already difficult to find seats on trains at certain times or periods, and I don't just mean eastbound at Reading. Taunton can find nothing left on services coming through from Penzance in the summer. Bristol Parkway has a similar issue at times (if it's a toss-up for you between Parkway or Temple Meads, it's the No 1 reason to choose the latter).

One difficulty with long distance travellers from Paddington being unable to get seats is the short times now allowed for trains to be opened before departure. Used to be that services to the West etc might be open 30 minutes before leaving, those for Penzance (and Taunton) could take their seats while those for Reading had earlier services, and it was only in the last 10 minutes or so that they "filled in". Not the case any more. Sub-10 minute train openings seem to be becoming more prevalent each year, even on services which have been sat there doing nothing for a long period.

Whoever allowed 110mph instead of 125mph outer suburban emu stock to be ordered for services on the Main lines from Paddington to Reading will rue the day, I'm sure, as that just sucks up capacity. Actually I think the congestion on this section will shortly become the key issue. 125mph expresses, 110mph regional services, a much increased Crossrail stopping service that will have their eyes on close headways and exclusive use of the Reliefs, and one of the busier freight routes into London with heavy aggregate trains just plodding along into the various yards along the way, just will not fit. I hope we don't get to the stage that the Channel Tunnel did with Eurostar expresses, that the fastest have to be slowed down, to say 110 mph, just to maximise capacity.
 
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Philip Phlopp

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Again Philip I think you have slightly bigged up Hitachi a bit much there. They are simply following the airliner concept of LRU's so they spend the minimum time possible in maintenance depots. It will simply be changing boxes and then sending those components off to manufacturer for any proper maintenance that needs to take place. Like I said before the packaging will have all been done using CAD and CFD. They may well have an product that is easily maintainable and probably reliable but they certainly haven't pioneered the concepts they are using. Also they are being paid a vast amount of money for these trains to be bulletproof so again if they do top the reliability charts then that's only what everyone is expecting. Comparing a train that's be designed with all the tools available to designers today to one that was designed in the 70's is a bit ridiculous to be honest.

It's only relevant when people continue to talk about HST being a viable alternative to IEP.

The train technical specifications were always going to result in a good product, the Siemens/Bombardier JV would have produced a thoroughly excellent train, but I get the distinct impression that Hitachi aren't just intent on meeting the TTS requirements, but have really entered into the spirit of the TTS too and want their product to exceed the reliability requirements and to fail as infrequently as is possible within the confines of the technical requirements and service provision contracts.

That's something I never get the impression of when hearing Bombardier talk about their products, Siemens on the other hand, well, they and their Japanese colleagues seem to share a sense of not wanting to let down passengers. Bombardier just don't want to let down their shareholders.
 

Bletchleyite

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Personally I still think a frequent EMU fast service Padd-Slough-Reading(-Didcot-Oxford) should operate, with local passengers banned from the fast services entirely, certainly in the peak, following the WCML model. Paths could be found by portion working some fasts as 2x5 splitting along the way.


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Taunton

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Personally I still think a frequent EMU fast service Padd-Slough-Reading(-Didcot-Oxford) should operate, with local passengers banned from the fast services entirely, certainly in the peak, following the WCML model. Paths could be found by portion working some fasts as 2x5 splitting along the way.
Slough is a bit difficult as stopping on the Main sucks capacity and there is no scope for redevelopment with more tracks/platforms - the Brunel building on the south side within feet of the Down Main is a Listed Building (in fact the resulting approach to ticket gates with queuing areas extended out onto the platform is an accident waiting to happen, more so once Crossrail gets going), while redevelopment in recent years on the north side has completely hemmed in the site.
 

krus_aragon

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IEP will wipe the floor when it comes to reliability - the Class 395 is a fantastic package - a six vehicle dual voltage 140mph electric unit with multiple signalling systems should be a recipe for low reliability and high levels of delays, in reality it's amongst the most reliable stock operating in the UK. IEP once it settles down, is going to absolutely thrash HST's reliability and mileage per casualty figures. Net effect - even more units in service on a daily basis and much less disruption from failures.

Would you say that (foreseen) reliability comes from the DfT's specification, the fact it's based on the 395, or something else?

Also the "seas on a four coach 158" needs to consider...

Rough weather at Dawlish again?
 

fandroid

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The problem with the idea of reducing the number of fast trains that stop at Reading is that the town is a significant source of passengers also wishing to head westwards. A whole series of lines converge there and these supply happy fare-payers who want a good frequent fast service on the main line just as much as those who started in London. Once Bristol has a 4tph service then it might be sensible to reduce Reading stops for those trains, but not for any trains on less frequent routes.

Once the 110mph electric units are in service for the western Thames Valley, the GWML operator could start to follow the SWT practice whereby for main line trains the Clapham Junction stops are pick up only in the down direction and set down only in the up. Whatever armchair operators on this site might think about that, there are significant numbers of passengers who get off up trains there, and a surprisingly large number who get on down trains knowing they are just about guaranteed having to stand as far as Woking on any evening train.
 

Philip Phlopp

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Would you say that (foreseen) reliability comes from the DfT's specification, the fact it's based on the 395, or something else?

It's a variety of factors.

DfT's specification and the train service requirements/penalties encourage a reliable product. The fact IEP is based on the Class 395 is also encouraging, a product which is exceptionally complex and which Hitachi have got working really reliably.

The suppliers chosen by Hitachi are sensible and there's no sense that corners are being cut or that the selection is unusual, radical, optimistic or reckless. There are many suppliers already working with Hitachi on contracts for the Class 395 fleet, and have been able to hit the ground running with Hitachi.

Finally, there's a lot of Hitachi's own components on each unit which has allowed Hitachi to be a little more flexible in deciding what parts to use and how to use them.

To offset Hitachi bias - Siemens have an enviable record with their EMU fleets too and have designed some really interesting products - the Class 700 fleet feedback suggests Siemens on their own would have made a similarly good IEP unit. They partnered with Bombardier who use buttons that fall apart when you press them. If it was British design and German engineering, the Siemens/Bombardier IEP could have been amazing, if it was British engineering and German design, it would have been depressing and shoddy.

God help Bombardier if the Class 345s are crap.
 

Harbornite

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To offset Hitachi bias - Siemens have an enviable record with their EMU fleets too and have designed some really interesting products - the Class 700 fleet feedback suggests Siemens on their own would have made a similarly good IEP unit. They partnered with Bombardier who use buttons that fall apart when you press them. If it was British design and German engineering, the Siemens/Bombardier IEP could have been amazing, if it was British engineering and German design, it would have been depressing and shoddy.

God help Bombardier if the Class 345s are crap.

I know this is a bit OT, but it seems as though the 700s have so far settled down better than the 380s, which might seem odd because the 380s weren't as different to the 350s as the desiro citys are.
 

Tom m

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Personally I still think a frequent EMU fast service Padd-Slough-Reading(-Didcot-Oxford) should operate, with local passengers banned from the fast services entirely, certainly in the peak, following the WCML model. Paths could be found by portion working some fasts as 2x5 splitting along the way.


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I expect the people who use these services have become accustom to them. Rather harsh just to cut them off without an alternative, I expect that they will become redundant at the start of full crossrail services (at least into London). I would hope that the fast services currently enjoyed (in both directions) are not just cut as you are suggesting. Always two sides to every story.
 

43096

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It's a variety of factors.

DfT's specification and the train service requirements/penalties encourage a reliable product. The fact IEP is based on the Class 395 is also encouraging, a product which is exceptionally complex and which Hitachi have got working really reliably.

The suppliers chosen by Hitachi are sensible and there's no sense that corners are being cut or that the selection is unusual, radical, optimistic or reckless. There are many suppliers already working with Hitachi on contracts for the Class 395 fleet, and have been able to hit the ground running with Hitachi.

Finally, there's a lot of Hitachi's own components on each unit which has allowed Hitachi to be a little more flexible in deciding what parts to use and how to use them.

To offset Hitachi bias - Siemens have an enviable record with their EMU fleets too and have designed some really interesting products - the Class 700 fleet feedback suggests Siemens on their own would have made a similarly good IEP unit. They partnered with Bombardier who use buttons that fall apart when you press them. If it was British design and German engineering, the Siemens/Bombardier IEP could have been amazing, if it was British engineering and German design, it would have been depressing and shoddy.

God help Bombardier if the Class 345s are crap.
There seems to be a revisionist history of IEP being written if your recent posts are to be believed. We should not forget it has taken over 10 years to get to where we are now, through a specification written by DfT that attempted to re-write the laws of physics, to an exceptionally expensive price-tag. And if reports are to be believed, which given who has written them I suspect they are correct, the interiors of the IEPs will be worse than what we have now.

As for Bombardier, they have upped their game: the Class 387 build quality has been very good (shame about the customer specified bits...), though perhaps not up to the standard of Siemens yet.
 

47271

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Just for HST perpetualists on this thread, it may well be time to move on.

I remember driving into Taunton on the A38 with my Mum and Dad on holiday in 1991. A westbound HST ran parallel to us in the distance at Obridge. My Dad said 'those trains are doing well in front line service considering their age'.
 
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Taunton

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And if reports are to be believed, which given who has written them I suspect they are correct, the interiors of the IEPs will be worse than what we have now.
That's a common experience. There are a number of routes which 50 years ago in 1966 had 3-across Mk 1 compartment seating, by 25 years ago it was 4-across 2+2 seating in Mk 2 stock, and now have 5-across seating in emus. Next generation will be standee-dominant.
 

jayah

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Virgin were very keen to lengthen many of their Voyagers to six coaches, and they even had an option to lengthen them, so flexibility with Bombardier wasn't the issue - they were built to be extended. The problem was that ultimately, the SRA blocked the investment in the new coaches despite Princess generating 40% passenger growth in 4 months, which nobody could have predicted in the first place.

I don't think the comparisons with Princess are particularly valid anyway, remember Princess was launched in the aftermath of the Railtrack collapse and passenger numbers had taken a hit after Hatfield - the industry is in a very different, and much better place nowadays, IEP is about catering for additional passenger numbers in the coming years after consistent year on year increase over the past decade, there's no reason for it to be Princess Mark 2.

If anything Princess wasn't a failure, rather a victim of it's own success

There is a serious risk here of rewriting history on a grand scale here.

Both the Virgin franchises launched in 1997 were ambitious, high growth and high risk. Hatfield is irrelevant here, it happened years after the wheels of Princess were set in motion, other than when Princess went live the industry was growing out of the huge hole created by Hatfield, allowing flattering figures like the shocking 40% growth - I wonder how much of that was pure ORCATS switching between TOCs? Couldn't they predict that? Hmmm....

Anyway Virgin wanted new trains, faster services, tilt even on Cross Country, higher frequency and yes more passengers, far more passengers! The model was for a doubling of passenger journeys over the 15 years including reaching into all manner of now abandoned new markets. This was most certainly not managed decline. There would be a half hourly service on the core Sheffield - Bristol and Manchester - Reading etc....

It was never the SRA i.e. taxpayers job to gift Cross Country more trains than they put in their bid to get the job done. Like my beef with the rider in the AT300 document - DfT don't authorise new trains - they bloody pay for them!

Anyway, predicted by many, there were major performance issues and the West Coast Modernisation debacle allowed Branson to miraculously escape his Cross Country obligations and get onto a cosy management contract. It wasn't the first, nor the last franchise, whose eyes were bigger than its tummy when it came to rolling stock and passenger numbers.

A bit like the one about all those franchises that suddenly found they didn't have enough train drivers to deliver the franchise timetable, it is funnily enough never their fault either, but that is another book.....
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
IEP will wipe the floor when it comes to reliability - the Class 395 is a fantastic package - a six vehicle dual voltage 140mph electric unit with multiple signalling systems should be a recipe for low reliability and high levels of delays, in reality it's amongst the most reliable stock operating in the UK. IEP once it settles down, is going to absolutely thrash HST's reliability and mileage per casualty figures. Net effect - even more units in service on a daily basis and much less disruption from failures.

Despite a fantastically long introduction period and units sat in sidings because there isn't the demand on HS1, it has taken them years to get to 50,000 miles per casualty. I can hardly remember the last time I had a serious delay because of a train fault - signalling on the other hand...

Beyond about 10,000 miles it has little visible effect on the passengers unless you are getting major incidents and sit downs. The overhead wires on the other hand are a new and colossal potential for failure. I know this new kit is meant to be as tough as the proverbial outbuilding and even if it falls down on one line, you are apparently able to keep running on the next track(?) but I will believe it when I see it. Whether the trains are doing 3,000 miles or 30,000 will probably be a minor detail to what could go wrong there.
 
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