Skymonster
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By that time we could have Boris as PM if we vote to come out of the EU - now there's an interesting combination!!
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2016 US election discussion
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By that time we could have Boris as PM if we vote to come out of the EU - now there's an interesting combination!!
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Busaholic
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MidlandMainlie
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I am doubtful that a brokered convention will work. If Trump goes to the Republican convention with the highest number of delegates (but not a clear majority) and doesn't walk away as the Republican candidate there will be an almighty row that will probably split the Republican Party. After all Trump isn't the kind of guy who would go quietly, espically if he is cheated out of the nomination.
It is all very nice. The Republican party seems to block the choice of Obama for the Supreme Court. If this should be true, than that Court will be idle till say March 2017. And what kind of choice will Hillary or Trump come up with?! Politics in the USA it not to make things better in the country, but to frustrate the other party.
TheNewNo2
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The court won't be idle, it just won't be nine members. They can get by with less, just if they deadlock 4:4 the decision of the lower court is upheld but with no precedent set. They've already heard several cases since Scalia's death, including the big Texas TRAP law case.
Certainly for Republicans, who on the day of Obama's inauguration met and decided that they would be against anything Obama was for, no matter what those things were.
90sWereBetter
Member
There's an idea being floated in some circles that the GOP may decide to conceed the presidency, by nominating their own candidate at the convention to stop Drumpf/Cruz. This would split the crazy part of the GOP base away from the party forever (they'd never forgive the GOP), but it may leave a functioning, sensible conservative GOP, which would also push the Democrats leftward. It would be a fairly long-term process though, and it would basically guarantee the White House for the Democrats for 2016, 2020 and 2024, but then the GOP loses the crazies and religious nutjobs, and regains respectability. Who knows.
TheNewNo2
Member
I don't see it happening. There may be a few prominent commentators saying #NeverTrump, but all but one of the elected ones are saying they'll vote for him. Besides, organising a presidential campaign is a tricky job, and you need a lot of signatures to run as a third party. The convention will be too late.
overthewater
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Going by the maths, Trump will get enough votes to get thought the convention. But if GOP expect Mitt of Ryan can just walk in well it could be utter chaso, and GOP could lose the senate and house.
Also Trump has been given 3 extra because of this: http://juneauempire.com/state/2016-03-17/rubios-withdrawal-means-trump-ties-cruz-alaska
Also Trump has been given 3 extra because of this: http://juneauempire.com/state/2016-03-17/rubios-withdrawal-means-trump-ties-cruz-alaska
Trump and Clinton the big winners yesterday, no major shocks, and fewer states to provide such shocks.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35878464
Clinton V Sanders is now 1214 vs 901 on normal delegates and 1681 vs 927 overall. That's a comfortable lead.
Trump is closer, with 739, vs Cruz on 465 and Kasich on 143.
Looking more and more like Clinton v Trump, with a US presidential candidate with a good chance of winning office again stating:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35878464
Clinton V Sanders is now 1214 vs 901 on normal delegates and 1681 vs 927 overall. That's a comfortable lead.
Trump is closer, with 739, vs Cruz on 465 and Kasich on 143.
Looking more and more like Clinton v Trump, with a US presidential candidate with a good chance of winning office again stating:
TheNewNo2
Member
Trump moves ever closer to getting his tiny, tiny hands on the GOP nomination.
southern442
Established Member
Goodness me they are really quite small!
backontrack
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Clinton may have won big in Arizona, but Sanders trounced her by about 75% to 25% in both Utah and Idaho. Big winner indeed...
overthewater
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Today is make or break for Trump. If he does well in New york he will be on road to getting his magic 1237.
What is everyone else views on how Lyin ted has won the last five states yet he admitted only two of them had people voting in them.
What is everyone else views on how Lyin ted has won the last five states yet he admitted only two of them had people voting in them.
So far Trump has managed to get 39% of the republican vote. 61% of the republicans have voted for someone else.
If he had 51% of the vote and was still not selected at the convention, I'd have sympathy to his "I was robbed" position. As it stands it's clear none of the candidates on their own can win over half of the republican party, let alone half of the nation, so it's up to the republican party to decide who has the best chance of getting into the white house.
If he had 51% of the vote and was still not selected at the convention, I'd have sympathy to his "I was robbed" position. As it stands it's clear none of the candidates on their own can win over half of the republican party, let alone half of the nation, so it's up to the republican party to decide who has the best chance of getting into the white house.
TheNewNo2
Member
I don't think Trump will make 1237, not quite anyway. And if he doesn't win on the first ballot at the convention, he's pretty much done for.
phoenixcronin
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Cruz and Kasich form Alliance to stop Trump!
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/us/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-donald-trump.html
However it seems to be falling apart already:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/26/us/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-donald-trump.html?_r=0
As predicted Trump is dismissing the pact as "collusion", "desperate", "sad!" and "weak" by "Lyin' Ted" and "1 for 38 Kasich"
Personally I don't think think this will be very effective at stopping Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/us/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-donald-trump.html
However it seems to be falling apart already:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/26/us/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-donald-trump.html?_r=0
As predicted Trump is dismissing the pact as "collusion", "desperate", "sad!" and "weak" by "Lyin' Ted" and "1 for 38 Kasich"
Personally I don't think think this will be very effective at stopping Trump
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The establishment loves plurarity rule and first past the post and other non-democratic ways of choosing leaders. Until it falls apart from under them.
However the fact remains that Trump has failed to get 50% of the popular vote (he has 40.1%, and that's unlikely to move much), which means that he doesn't have a democratic mandate, even before you factor in who the most likely candidate to win.
Bernie Sanders by comparison has 43% of the popular vote of the Dems. Clinton has 57%.
However the fact remains that Trump has failed to get 50% of the popular vote (he has 40.1%, and that's unlikely to move much), which means that he doesn't have a democratic mandate, even before you factor in who the most likely candidate to win.
Bernie Sanders by comparison has 43% of the popular vote of the Dems. Clinton has 57%.
Busaholic
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Not sure how generally known is Hillary Clinton's acceptance of Donald Trump's invitation to the latest of his weddings in 2005. Says it all about the pair of them.
TheNewNo2
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I'm not sure what you think it says, but to me it says that two rich/famous people knew each other enough to be invited to a wedding, which likely had thousands of people. It doesn't say anything about their politics.
Yes, Trump's endorsement of her ("She'd make a great president") in 2008, and was a registered democrat from 2001 to 2008, donated to both parties, and donated over $100k to the Clinton foundation.
On the other hand he also endorsed John McCain in 2008, and since then he's abandoned the democrats.
Basically like most rich people he donates based on the return he gets. Eveytime you see someone who is financially savvy donating to a political party, be it 1K or 1M, remember they expect the returns to be far higher.
TheNewNo2
Member
Well, I'm surprised, I did not expect Trump to actually get the nomination. The Democratic race has turned rather nasty recently, and it seems they could be in real trouble if Sanders doesn't tell his supporters to vote Clinton.
Busaholic
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A lot of Sanders supporters won't vote on the day. A small proportion may even vote Trump to try to keep Clinton out.
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phoenixcronin
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backontrack
Established Member
Have you seen how the board is lopsided? A bit like Trump.
phoenixcronin
Member
Indeed, perhaps he should be called Crooked Trump instead of calling her Crooked Hillary.
Also, the wonky board combined with his ridiculous camo hat had me in stitches for a few minutes.
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"It's like he was born with a squirrel's tail and has brushed it over his head to pass among humans"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4vuUfnTEkg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4vuUfnTEkg
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90sWereBetter
Member
So, Hillary clinches the Democratic nomination tonight. Me, along with the rest of the civilised world hope America now comes to its senses and elects the first female president of the United States come November.
I think the important thing to remember is that although Bernie Sanders' supporters constantly state that he would whitewash Drumpf in November given theoretical polls/match ups, he hasn't actually been scrutinised in depth by the GOP. Should he have become the Democratic nomination, he'd have been torn to shreds by the GOP machine. The fact that Hillary has been attacked for over 20 years and is still able to command that level of support bodes very well for her chances in November. Of course, a few more blatantly racist comments from Mr Drumpf would help as well...
I think the important thing to remember is that although Bernie Sanders' supporters constantly state that he would whitewash Drumpf in November given theoretical polls/match ups, he hasn't actually been scrutinised in depth by the GOP. Should he have become the Democratic nomination, he'd have been torn to shreds by the GOP machine. The fact that Hillary has been attacked for over 20 years and is still able to command that level of support bodes very well for her chances in November. Of course, a few more blatantly racist comments from Mr Drumpf would help as well...
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TheNewNo2
Member
Clinton has had 25 years of Republicans trying to tear her down, so it's not surprising her unfavourables are so high, what's surprising is that she's still standing at all. That says a lot about her perseverance. Sanders's recent behaviour certainly has me feeling glad he's not going to win.
phoenixcronin
Member
Indeed. Sanders is also still claiming that he stands a chance, trying to flip the superdelegates to overrule the 3+ million more votes she has. Pretty desperate
If he had the popular vote and Clinton was winning on super delegates or even FPTP technicalities, I'd have sympathy.
But it's clear that the country is not ready for Sanders' type of politics. Clinton could do worse than having him as VP though.
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