2018 in Rail - Your Hopes, Fears and Predictions

[KashmireHawker]

With the sunset on a truly staggering year approaching, it's pretty much time to see your hopes, fears and predictions for 2018.

Whether related to Franchises / Franchise Competitions, Stations, Rolling Stock or the rest of it, I think some surprises could be on the way over the coming 12 months.

With 4 Franchise Contests ongoing (as of today being Wales and Borders, West Cost Partnership, East Midlands and South Eastern), a huge amount of new trains taking to the tracks and the possibility of the Government falling and changing (what happens when you call an election and lose a Majority), things could get extremely interesting.

For me, I'll only make one prediction: that being Wolverhampton finally has the new build start by the Summer!

 

[Failed Unit]

I suspect that Thameslink will become the next “operation princess”. The realisation that 24tph is an impossible dream and the service gets scaled back. ECML punctuality hits at all time low during the summer with reactionary delays.

 

[trash80]

Well i hope to see (and travel on) a D-Train

 

[deltic]

Wales & Border franchise commitments massively scaled down
East - West rail reopening delayed another couple of years
Scotrail taken over by Scottish Government
More RMT strikes over DOO and DCO
Another review of the structure of the rail industry commissioned
London Evening Standard carries article about overcrowding on Elizabeth line within days of it opening
One railfreight operator goes bust or is sold on
Nothern Powerhouse Rail is renamed a few more times but makes no actual progress
Large number of reopening proposals are put forward - lots of consultancy studies commissioned - but no real action takes place
London Overground starts major ticket office closure programme as finances continue to tighten
Fall in rail patronage continues and new franchises are let on very low or zero growth projections again with subsequent reduction in rolling stock orders
Economic slowing means HS2 Phase 2B comes under growing pressure to reduce costs by descoping or delaying implementation

I looked back at my 2017 predictions which were as follows:

HS2 will start construction work - Hybrid Bill for HS2 extension to Crewe will start in Parliament. - correct

DOO dispute will continue and spread to Anglia and SWT. TfL will close booking offices on London Overground/rail. - partially correct - TfL booking office closures didnt happen

Network Rail sell off will be proposed again - correct

Another study will be commissioned on the structure of the railways and why everything costs so much compared to Europe - not sure - was there one?

However futher rail closures and accidents in France due to failing infrastructure suggests continental approach is no longer sustainable - correct

Futher rail upgrades are postponed and new rolling stock is widely critisised for. Ring cheap and uncomfortable - correct

 

[SquireBev]

Worcester Parkway may actually come to something.

 

[xotGD]

After all the talk, top and tail 68s on a set of Mark 3s across the Pennines.

 

[FordFocus]

DB Cargo sold off with DB retaining the Channel Tunnel operations with GB Railfreight taking on most of the work in the south. Freightliner HH taking over work in the north.
ATW bidding to be scrapped and reissued after the incumbent bailed out
Franchise extensions for South Eastern, Chiltern and East Midlands

 

[swt_passenger]

Prediction. Another 60 or 70 new posts will comment about seats on class 700s as though no-one has ever thought if it before...

 

[gingertom]

Scotrail's HSTs will be a roaring success and other franchises will fight over the remaining off-lease sets.

 

[Ianno87]

I suspect that Thameslink will become the next “operation princess”. The realisation that 24tph is an impossible dream and the service gets scaled back. ECML punctuality hits at all time low during the summer with reactionary delays.

24tph isn't coming until December 2019 due to the phasing in of the full timetable (presumably to avoid it being another Operation Princess)

(https://www.mynewsdesk.com/uk/govia...led-for-may-2018-south-east-timetable-2285889)

 

[KashmireHawker]

Here are mine (I've had a small think) - if all 4 Franchises are awarded next year (predictions of them are at the top) and other factors come into play: franchise guesses are on my mind of thinking that DfT will want to mix things up:

• West Coast Partnership Franchise: MTR / Guangshen
• East Midlands Franchise: First / Trenitalia
• Wales and Borders Franchise: Abellio
• South Eastern Franchise: Stagecoach
• Beginning of splitting the Thameslink Franchise, back into its separate Pre-Joint Franchise routes
• Successful full introduction of the Intercity Express Fleet, on to both VTEC and GWR
• Alliance Rail to be approved for its latest (and final) GNWR application, but rejected for GSR due to strong opposition by the TOC's and lack of free rolling stock currently
• Construction begins on HS2 Phase 1 and progress is made on Phase 2's Bill in Parliament, but much slower than originally hoped for due to MP's of all colours wanting wholesale changes and the current economic situation
• Some sort of Merger between at least 2 Freight companies
• Wolverhampton Station's redevelopment is finally started!
• And Finally: Labour win a Snap General Election (Majority of 40 or so) in Q4 of 2018, but Govt pushes through WCP Franchise decision: much earlier than 1st planned so the contract is signed and locked into place, before HMG finally collapses for huge range of reasons, mainly Brexit related

 

[Ianno87]

Elizabeth Line Central section opens succcessfully in December 2018, and by the end of the year its so popular people are already wondering how we ever lived without it. Immediately whets the appetite and creates a greater political push for Crossrail 2.

 

[uww11x]

An action packed year on the ECML as political pressure continues to gather.

Will it continue to be franchised or back in public hands?

 

[ANorthernGuard]

I just want honesty from my Employer (not silence and DfT approved script) and the RMT (not 70s sounding rhetoric) and bang their heads together to get a resolution otherwise for everyone who uses and works on our railway network it will be a horrible year. Come to an agreement that benefits everyone and not just shareholders.

 

[Moonshot]

I just want honesty from my Employer (not silence and DfT approved script) and the RMT (not 70s sounding rhetoric) and bang their heads together to get a resolution otherwise for everyone who uses and works on our railway network it will be a horrible year. Come to an agreement that benefits everyone and not just shareholders.

What would be the best compromise if you accept the fact that 50% of Northern mileage will be run without a traditional guard?

 

[ANorthernGuard]

What would be the best compromise if you accept the fact that 50% of Northern mileage will be run without a traditional guard?

For myself Connect will become DCO. That was always the plan anyway (and I got that from someone quite high up). Keep the Current Guards contracts as they are and new Guards have a different contract. When someone applies for a job they applied for what that position is advertised as. Current Guards at least on Northern are relatively safe. The 150s will be around for many years and the majority of current Guards will still get a career out of it. Everyone would be happy with that. Maybe the ultimate solution would be the ScotRail agreement where Driver opens and Guards Close that would suit almost everyone who already works on the railway.

 

[Moonshot]

For myself Connect will become DCO. That was always the plan anyway (and I got that from someone quite high up). Keep the Current Guards contracts as they are and new Guards have a different contract. When someone applies for a job they applied for what that position is advertised as. Current Guards at least on Northern are relatively safe. The 150s will be around for many years and the majority of current Guards will still get a career out of it. Everyone would be happy with that. Maybe the ultimate solution would be the ScotRail agreement where Driver opens and Guards Close that would suit almost everyone who already works on the railway.

Indeed they would , I completely agree with you. So what is the point of us losing money on strike days ? And if a VS package was offered at some point in the future. I m sure some of the older hands would gladly take that and retire a few years earlier than they would have otherwise......

 

[Failed Unit]

24tph isn't coming until December 2019 due to the phasing in of the full timetable (presumably to avoid it being another Operation Princess)

(https://www.mynewsdesk.com/uk/govia...led-for-may-2018-south-east-timetable-2285889)

I am well aware of this phasing but still stand by my prediction. They will realise they can’t make it work for the May 2018 timetable work so drop any chance of the full timetable. Just because they are phasing it in doesn’t mean that it won’t be the next operation princess. We don’t get many weeks already when severe disruption due to issues in the core occurs on Thameslink. (Not always caused by failed units either)

 

[Bletchleyite]

For myself Connect will become DCO. That was always the plan anyway (and I got that from someone quite high up). Keep the Current Guards contracts as they are and new Guards have a different contract. When someone applies for a job they applied for what that position is advertised as. Current Guards at least on Northern are relatively safe. The 150s will be around for many years and the majority of current Guards will still get a career out of it. Everyone would be happy with that. Maybe the ultimate solution would be the ScotRail agreement where Driver opens and Guards Close that would suit almost everyone who already works on the railway.

There are so many benefits of driver open, guard close that I would like to see it rolled out across the network where it isn't already in use (it already is in many places).

 

[Moonshot]

There are so many benefits of driver open, guard close that I would like to see it rolled out across the network where it isn't already in use (it already is in many places).

Do the same benefits apply when its a platform despatcher who instructs the driver to close doors?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do the same benefits apply when its a platform despatcher who instructs the driver to close doors?

The benefit is that it (a) prevents the guard having to fight their way to the doors past passengers queueing to get off, and (b) that the guard can continue completing a revenue transaction before moving to close the doors at his (relative) leisure, and (c) passengers aren't held up leaving the train because of a revenue transaction needing to be completed.

This isn't the place for a DOO debate, though the places where this is of most benefit don't tend to have dispatchers.

 

[Moonshot]

The benefit is that it (a) prevents the guard having to fight their way to the doors past passengers queueing to get off, and (b) that the guard can continue completing a revenue transaction before moving to close the doors at his (relative) leisure, and (c) passengers aren't held up leaving the train because of a revenue transaction needing to be completed.

This isn't the place for a DOO debate, though the places where this is of most benefit don't tend to have dispatchers.

Ok ....but a platform despatcher can easily achieve all of the above .....so getting back onto topic, I would hope that in 2018, some more staff are put onto platforms.

 

[xotGD]

Prompted by the above, a second wish:

Threads staying on-topic!

 

[Dore & Totley]

I would just love the Dore & Totley redoubling to begin and the Hope Valley capacity scheme to get underway

 

[Dr Hoo]

I would just love the Dore & Totley redoubling to begin and the Hope Valley capacity scheme to get underway

Welcome to the Forum!
What a nice, positive first post.
As a fellow Hope Valley user I share your sentiments.

 

[Pete_uk]

I hope for record punctuality,
I fear a fatal accident,
I predict more infrastructure delays

 

[PR1Berske]

My hope is the immediate cancellation of HS2

My fear is continued industrial unrest and strike action across the network

 

[Gathursty]

My hope is for:
- Skelmersdale to move further along the pathway to allow a train to call in the town once more.
- Further progress/completion of the Trafford Centre Metrolink line.
- Maghull North to open on time.
- Ordsall Chord train services to begin
- Newton-le-Willows rebuilding to be completed on time.

 

[yorksrob]

My hopes:

The implementation of timetable improvements to Northern Rail services such as promised in the franchise spec.

A substantial stay of execution for EMT's HST's on the Midland mainline (possibly including long term mods (but not of the comfy interior).

Real progress on the Exeter - Plymouth via Okehampton corridor.

Fears:

The cheapish 1st class IC fares I like to use going up or being removed from useful services.

Worse seats being installed on Northern's 158's and 156's.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I hope for failing Grayling to get fired and someone who loves railways to get his job.
I hope that some electrification that was cancelled gets fresh support and restarted.

I fear a fatal accident

I predict TP electrification will get the go ahead with most of it actually scheduled to get wires because the consequences for the government otherwise would be too great.