2024 Local, Mayoral and PCC Elections

[simonw]

I think those giving conspirital motives to the change to FPTP need to remeber it works both ways, it also allows Farage to peel off a lot of votes to the right. And also remeber when the change was legislated their wasn't the Gaza conflict and no major splits on the left happening. FPTP is cheaper and less time consuming, and the government are misers

The Westminster government doesn't pay for the London Mayor elections

 

[renegademaster]

The Westminster government doesn't pay for the London Mayor elections

They indirectly do via grants to local authorities, which they want to cut down on

 

[Mojo]

The Tories didn't really want Susan Hall in the first place so her being planted is not true.

I would imagine if the Conservatives do better than the polling suggests there will be questions in the Conservative Party as to how they ended up with such a rubbish candidate.

 

[JonathanH]

I would imagine if the Conservatives do better than the polling suggests there will be questions in the Conservative Party as to how they ended up with such a rubbish candidate.

They don't exactly have form for picking good candidates. Both Shaun Bailey and Susan Hall came with some fairly misplaced ideology, and wrecking ball stuff, about how London should be run.

 

[Thirteen]

I would imagine if the Conservatives do better than the polling suggests there will be questions in the Conservative Party as to how they ended up with such a rubbish candidate.

It is because their preferred candidate Daniel Korski dropped out because of sexual misconduct allegations.

It can't be that hard to find a candidate who's moderate and marketable to Londoners.

West Central which was won by Shaun Bailey has also been won by Khan.

 

[jfollows]

I've certainly found some of the media coverage baffling.

And I only get my information from the media - TV, radio and newspapers.

Firstly, various of them suggesting that Sadiq Khan won't win in London. Based on all the information from all the media until yesterday, this isn't going to happen. So why have some of them changed their mind? I don't believe it.

Secondly, Sky "projecting" that - based on the local election results - Labour will be the largest party at the next general election but won't win a majority. I just don't buy it. Conservative annihilation and huge Labour majority I'd bet a lot of money on. However my limit is my £10 at 10-1 on a January election, I can't afford to lose more! But does anyone here seriously think that Labour won't win a majority?

 

[PGAT]

Khan won North East constituency with 61.4% and almost a 7% swing

 

[nlogax]

Interesting to see that the 'closer than expected' chatter of the last 24 hours appear to be a complete work of social media fiction and / or Laura K delusion. I would love to know where those rumours started.

 

[Thirteen]

I've certainly found some of the media coverage baffling.

And I only get my information from the media - TV, radio and newspapers.

Firstly, various of them suggesting that Sadiq Khan won't win in London. Based on all the information from all the media until yesterday, this isn't going to happen. So why have some of them changed their mind? I don't believe it.

Secondly, Sky "projecting" that - based on the local election results - Labour will be the largest party at the next general election but won't win a majority. I just don't buy it. Conservative annihilation and huge Labour majority I'd bet a lot of money on. However my limit is my £10 at 10-1 on a January election, I can't afford to lose more! But does anyone here seriously think that Labour won't win a majority?

I wonder if someone looked at the turnout and assumed that it would go Susan Hall's way. The fact she lost in places where Tories did well last time suggests people in those areas weren't keen.

 

[PGAT]

South West flipped to Labour

 

[Howardh]

Interesting to see that the 'closer than expected' chatter of the last 24 hours appear to be a complete work of social media fiction and / or Laura K delusion. I would love to know where those rumours started.

Yes, and yes.

 

[jfollows]

I wonder if someone looked at the turnout and assumed that it would go Susan Hall's way. The fact she lost in places where Tories did well last time suggests people in those areas weren't keen.

Now the Guardian is saying that Khan may well do better than expected …. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...n-susan-hall-west-midlands-greater-manchester

The Labour team say they are confident of victory and it and looks like it’s possible that Sadiq Khan has done better than anyone could have expected.

From the results that are in, it looks like there have been swings towards Khan and Labour right across London. If Sadiq beats the Tories by more than 4.7% he will have not only won a third historic and unprecedented term, but increased his lead from his second term

 

[Thirteen]

The FPTP change really backfired on the Tories as well as a frankly terrible candidate.

When is West Midlands and Greater Manchester going to be announced? Not that the latter matters as Andy Burnham is a lock to win.

 

[takno]

Interesting to see that the 'closer than expected' chatter of the last 24 hours appear to be a complete work of social media fiction and / or Laura K delusion. I would love to know where those rumours started.

There's been a lot of talk about outer vs inner London over the last few weeks, and when the turnout figures came in it was clear that turnout was down in inner London and up in outer London, so people may have jumped to conclusions. The things they were ignoring were perhaps that:

• the additional people turning out in outer London might be Labour supporters who didn't think it was important to bother last time
• the loss of votes due to Palestine was already built into the polls for London (and may in any case have been more muted than other places because the candidate has pushed quite hard against the party line, and there isn't an expelled independent standing)
• there has been a lot of messaging around FPTP, which may well have led to heavy tactical voting in Labour's favour

 

[YorkRailFan]

NEW: No 10 admits Rishi Sunak did NOT vote for Susan Hall

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786744394457997671?t=EL26McjnLocmUvphbI5STA&s=19

Shows how much faith Sunak has in his own party.

 

[Thirteen]

Interesting that the Lib Dems are currently doing better than the Greens.

 

[jfollows]

BBC now forecasting (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732)

The BBC's polling expert John Curtice is forecasting that with six of the constituency results now published Sadiq Khan will be re-elected as Mayor of London for an historic third term.

We anticipate that the outcome in terms of votes will approximately be as follows:

• Sadiq Khan (LAB) - 43%
• Susan Hall (CON) - 33%

This would represent a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2021.

The FPTP change really backfired on the Tories as well as a frankly terrible candidate.

When is West Midlands and Greater Manchester going to be announced? Not that the latter matters as Andy Burnham is a lock to win.

14:30 for West Midlands …. oh, that’s 7 minutes ago! “Too close to call” it seems …..
16:30 for London it seems …..

 

[PGAT]

Susan Hall 54.6% in Bexley & Bromley, surprise surprise

 

[Thirteen]

Susan Hall 54.6% in Bexley & Bromley, surprise surprise

Sadiq Khan saw his vote share increase as well due to the high turnout.

West Central going to Labour must sting for the Tories but also it's an indication that some of their seats in those areas may go red in the GE.

Andy Burnham has comfortably won GM again.

 

[nlogax]

There's been a lot of talk about outer vs inner London over the last few weeks, and when the turnout figures came in it was clear that turnout was down in inner London and up in outer London, so people may have jumped to conclusions. The things they were ignoring were perhaps that:

• the additional people turning out in outer London might be Labour supporters who didn't think it was important to bother last time
• the loss of votes due to Palestine was already built into the polls for London (and may in any case have been more muted than other places because the candidate has pushed quite hard against the party line, and there isn't an expelled independent standing)
• there has been a lot of messaging around FPTP, which may well have led to heavy tactical voting in Labour's favour

I've read a lot of the inner v outer London discussions in recent days but a rumour or two specifically emerged online yesterday, backed up by an X from Kuenssberg. Considering the actual count didn't actually start until this morning..

 

[Thirteen]

The Outer London Boroughs has become more conservative in recent years but it's interesting that the more well heeled areas are voting Labour.

 

[PGAT]

Brent & Harrow: 37% Khan, 42% Hall

 

[Thirteen]

Brent & Harrow: 37% Khan, 42% Hall

When you consider that Hall's home patch, it's not great and suggests that the Harrow part of Brent and Harrow voted for her.

 

[PGAT]

Ealing & Hillingdon: 38% Khan, 39% Hall

 

[JamesT]

I've read a lot of the inner v outer London discussions in recent days but a rumour or two specifically emerged online yesterday, backed up by an X from Kuenssberg. Considering the actual count didn't actually start until this morning..

I would assume someone like Kuenssberg will have access to exit polls, so it won't be complete guesswork. The naughty bit is she tweeted a few minutes before the polls had closed.

 

[PGAT]

City & East: 56% Khan, 20% Hall

 

[Thirteen]

I would expect Susan Hall to win Croydon and Sutton, Havering and Redbridge and Khan to win Southwark and Lambeth, the big one is Camden and Barnet which Sadiq Khan won last time.

 

[jfollows]

After 105 out of 107 council declarations:
Labour 1,089 +227
LibDem 521 +97
Conservative 505 -397
Other 284 -17
Green 181 +64

Conservative better than -500
LibDem > Conservative
Green very good results

 

[PGAT]

Croydon & Sutton: 32% Khan, 42% Hall

 

[nlogax]

The West Mids mayoral contest actually sounds very close.