2024 predictions

[telstarbox]

What are you predicting for 2024? In politics I am boldly saying;
Election in the first half of the year
Labour to win at least 300 seats and probably a majority
Sadiq Khan to win a third Mayoral term

 

[gg1]

Sticking with politics
UK - October general election with Labour winning an outright majority, seat breakdown approximately:
Labour - 350
Tories - 210
Lib Dem - 35
SNP - 30
Others - 25

US - Trump gets the Republican nomination, Biden wins the election with an increased share of the vote compared to 2020 and 300+ electoral college votes. Trump will once again refuse to accept the result.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

What are you predicting for 2024? In politics I am boldly saying;
Election in the first half of the year
Labour to win at least 300 seats and probably a majority
Sadiq Khan to win a third Mayoral term

That sounds about right imho.

 

[TheSmiths82]

I think labour will win, but the Torie's will offer their usual pre election bribes and the gap will narrow a lot unless another crisis happens. I think labour will win the election which I think will be in May, but the majority will be a lot smaller than people think. A lot of it will depend on how many candidates Reform UK can offer. Two things will destroy the Tories, one is tactical voting and the other is Reform UK stealing a lot of Tory votes.

If labour win I can't see the Tory's becoming sensible, I think they will go further to the right and either realise they need to be more moderate before the 2028 election or just implode.

 

[brad465]

Venezuela will invade Guyana, and/or another war involving a Putin ally will be started somewhere in the world in the hope it distracts from Ukraine further and makes electing Trump more likely.

 

[PGAT]

Venezuela will invade Guyana, and/or another war involving a Putin ally will be started somewhere in the world in the hope it distracts from Ukraine further and makes electing Trump more likely.

Didn't their leaders recently meet and agree not to escalate into violence?

 

[brad465]

Didn't their leaders recently meet and agree not to escalate into violence?

They did, but there are countless examples in history of such agreements being reneged on not long after being signed, so while I hope no violence occurs, we should always be vigilant.

 

[Purple Train]

Politically:

Labour to win a thin majority in a midsummer General Election, on a nevertheless large swing. Sunak to be replaced as Tory leader by Mordaunt. An improved showing by the Lib Dems and a poor result for the SNP.

Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, with Gavin Newsom becoming the Democrat nominee. He beats Trump in a landslide, but Trump behaves exactly the same as in 2020, with similar results. By the end of the year, Trump has been found guilty in at least one of his criminal cases and receives a prison sentence.

That may be wishful thinking. If Biden runs, I predict a result similar to 2016. Trump wins, before embarking on a crusade of politically-motivated prosecutions. The bright economic future Americans predict will happen under Trump (sigh) fails to occur, and growing public tension leads to a split in the Republican Party, with protests and riots, and Trump's reaction to them, forcing the impeachment of Trump within months. This also engulfs his vice president, causing a political crisis.

(OK I think I've gone slightly into 2025 with that, sorry!)

In sport:

The European Championship is won by Croatia, who defeat France 1-0 in the final.

A four-way race for the Premier League ends in a tight victory for Arsenal.

Australia defeat the West Indies in the final of the T20 World Cup. England lose in the semi-finals.

QPR manager Marti Cifuentes is poached by a major club and replaced by Christian Wolmar.

In railway news:

The new Labour government resolves the strikes and announces plans to gradually renationalise the network. However, funding issues still plague the infrastructure side of things, causing mass disruption.

In RailUK news:

The forum continues to go from strength to strength, but everybody still says "Tory-light" rather than "Tory-lite".

In random news:

Nobody watches Eurovision. Again, possibly wishful thinking!

 

[dangie]

In sport:

Stoke City hire & fire three more managers

 

[Smidster]

For me:

GE in October (probably earlier in the month to avoid mega election week with the US)
Neck & neck between Lab / Tory for overall seats - both short of overall majority (People are desperate for change but increasingly clear Labour is just offering more of the same)...SNP not largest party in Scotland.
Sunak replaced by Badenoch

Economy continues to stagnate but avoids technical recession
Interest rates fall to 3.5% by end of year.

Trump drops out of GOP race after Super Tuesday and does a deal to avoid jail.
Nikki Haley comfortably defeats Biden with over 320 Electoral Votes.

Rail strikes still going
GB 5th in Paris medal table.

 

[507021]

• Chester win promotion to the National League via the play-offs.
• Joe Biden wins the presidential election, but with a lower number of votes.
• Labour win the general election, with a majority of around 30 seats.
• Liverpool win either the Premier League or Europa League.
• Merseyrail retain 507s into the latter half of the year, as 777 reliability continues to be poor.
• Steve Rotheram wins a third mayoral term, despite achieving nothing in the previous two.
• Ukraine makes a significant territorial gain.

 

[Bevan Price]

Part predicion, part wishful thinking:

1. Labour becomes the largest single party after the general election, but just fails to get an overall majority. No formal coalition can be formed, but the LibDems agree not to block anything they view as acceptable policies.

2. Left in a total mess by the tories, the UK economy fails to get better, leaving the new government with insufficient funds to pay for most of its proposed improvements.

3. England lose a penalty shoot-out in the quarter finals of the European Nations Football Cup.

4. England cricket, after a promising start, loses the one-day & test match series.

5. DfT/Treasury force train companies to reduce service frequencies - but allocate even more money for new roads. Withdrawals of Classes 150** and 155 commence, but without new stock to replace them. However, an outline design for an "Improved Pacer" bimode train emerges.
(** - Yes, I know some accident victims have already gone)

6. Overseas. The USA Republicans fail to supply enough defence weapons for Ukraine, and Putin's destruction of that country gets much worse.
Trump survives an assassination attempt, and almost wins the Presidential Election. Biden just wins, but becomes ill part way through his presidency and the Vice President takes over.

7. Entertainment. An American actor is chosen as the next James Bond. (It will be a few more years before black or female actors get that role).
Yet again, the pop music fails to find a successful new trend.
TV invents yet another "soap" to replace original drama slots.

8. Science. Astronmers find signs that there was more than one "big bang" in the creation of our universes.

 

[Thirteen]

Labour wins the GE in May 2024, Sunak steps down with a Tory leadership battle between Badenoch and Mordaunt which doesn't get announced until September.

Sadiq Khan comfortably wins the London Mayoral Election but announces it'll be his final term.

New Trams and Bakerloo Line stock replacements are announced by TfL.

 

[Howardh]

Tories will claw back enough support to deny Labour an outright victory, but there will be a Lab/LD pact so Starmer becomes PM.

As part of that pact there will be plans for a 2026 rejoin EU referendum, but that will depend on negotiations with the EU r/e keeping the £ and not joining Schengen.

GB will come fifth in the Olympic table

GB "News" will cease to operate on "normal" TV and will be web-based only

Ukraine/Russia will still be at war the whole year, but towards the end there will be discussions on joint control of land taken by Russia

Australia will win the Eurovision Song Contest and the UK will host the final in 2025 on their behalf.

Lancashire will win the County Championship no, don't be absurd.

 

[Amos]

UK rail services won’t get any better.

 

[joebassman]

I think aliens will land, say you humans are all crazy and stupid and have no hope. Blow raspberries at us and fly off again, never to return.

 

[warwickshire]

Labour wins, Strikes get sorted by Labour or a last gasp effort by tories in the final budget.
Tories In March 2024 budget, might give a surprise amount way, but as a last gasp effort for anyone to change mind at last minute, with the intention of doing the dirty and claiming back soon after, if very unlikely back in power,
Traction wise, Mk5 for Chiltern, 175 Gwr, Scotrail Hsts safety harness fitted temporary measure, then replaced Meridians.
321 Retanus to or some parcels units.
379 finally Gtr.
But we shall see.

 

[McRhu]

Without wishing to be pessimistic I think the year will get off to a slightly dubious start. Locusts... Fire... Brimstone... Rivers turning to blood... Mountains toppling...Boils, Lice and Flies and Frogs, Stars falling from the heavens, Earthquakes, Lightning and Great wrath, War and rumour of war, Nation agains nation, Gog and Magog on the march and the Caledonian sleeper running late.

 

[joebassman]

Without wishing to be pessimistic I think the year will get off to a slightly dubious start. Locusts... Fire... Brimstone... Rivers turning to blood... Mountains toppling...Boils, Lice and Flies and Frogs, Stars falling from the heavens, Earthquakes, Lightning and Great wrath, War and rumour of war, Nation agains nation, Gog and Magog on the march and the Caledonian sleeper running late.

At least you are not predicting anymore train strikes, so at least there's something to be optomistc about.

 

[Acfb]

I don't know if the general election will be in May or October/November.

I guess the result will be roughly:

Lab 340
Con 220
LD 40
SNP 22

Badenoch as probable successor to Sunak I do agree on.

I then don't expect the future Labour gvt to deliver much at all.

I really don't know about the US presidential election. Its plausible Trump could exactly replicate his 2016 electoral college win but Biden is possibly being underestimated even though he's upset people with his Israel/Gaza stance.

 

[renegademaster]

Ukraine , after having its funding dry up and it's fighting age male population get very low, is forced to settle with Russia, with Ukraine defacto accepting the regions currently occupied as Russia, but with nominal Ukrainian sovereignty as a cope,.plus guarantees not to join NATO or the EU. European economic outlook will improve as cheap Russian gas worms it way back in decreasing inflation across the board.

The Gaza conflict ends after Israel decides it has killed enough people to send a message but Hamas remains structurally intact, crawls out of the tunnels and will rule over the ruins.

Most industrial disputes get settled but nothing changes dramatically to either the NHS or Railways. Mabye some reshuffling of how social care is funded to get the burden off local authorities.

No rejoining of the EU but a drift to a defacto customs and regulatory union for practical reasons. (But FoM will never go back). Labour will keep up a lot of the anti immigration rhetoric of the present lot but immigration will remain very high and Rwanda will be abandoned.

No dramatic changes to school system, labour backs out last minute to charging VAT on private schools as they threaten to dump lots of children on overcrowded LEA and and Academy schools.

For me:

GE in October (probably earlier in the month to avoid mega election week with the US)
Neck & neck between Lab / Tory for overall seats - both short of overall majority (People are desperate for change but increasingly clear Labour is just offering more of the same)...SNP not largest party in Scotland.
Sunak replaced by Badenoch

Economy continues to stagnate but avoids technical recession
Interest rates fall to 3.5% by end of year.

Trump drops out of GOP race after Super Tuesday and does a deal to avoid jail.
Nikki Haley comfortably defeats Biden with over 320 Electoral Votes.

Rail strikes still going
GB 5th in Paris medal table.

If Trump is engineered away from the nomination it will be Vivek

 

[brad465]

Ukraine , after having its funding dry up and it's fighting age male population get very low, is forced to settle with Russia, with Ukraine defacto accepting the regions currently occupied as Russia, but with nominal Ukrainian sovereignty as a cope,.plus guarantees not to join NATO or the EU. European economic outlook will improve as cheap Russian gas worms it way back in decreasing inflation across the board.

I don't think the Russian gas part will make its way back. I cannot see any appetite for the Nord Stream pipe to be repaired and reinstated, and bar a low proportion passing through southern Europe, most of the continent has moved onto other supplies and usually a tectonic shift in supply chains rarely reverses quickly.

 

[Cdd89]

I cannot see any appetite for the Nord Stream pipe to be repaired and reinstated

I may be wrong, but I believe one out of the four pipes is still theoretically operational?

 

[brad465]

I may be wrong, but I believe one out of the four pipes is still theoretically operational?

I don't think NS2 was attacked, but that never went into operation as Germany suspended the plans when Russia recognised the Donbas republics as independent a few days before invading proper.

 

[nw1]

1. Election at some point, either May or Oct, too early to say which but will certainly be one of the two. Labour to win majority, though smaller than that of 1997. Let's say Lab majority of 80, similar size to the Tory majority in 2019. Red Wall and Wales to flip back to Labour, Labour also gain some places like Milton Keynes, Swindon and other urban areas of the south, Lib Dems to gain a number of southern and southwestern seats ending up with around 30 overall, Tories hold vast swathes of rural "middle England" though.

2. Summer to be less wet and dull than 2023, but still rather cloudy. Best of year's weather to occur in April and September.

3. Biden to win US election again. He's not ideal and has many flaws but I can't believe that the USA would be mad enough to vote Trump in again. Perhaps Michigan and Wisconsin flip to Trump again, though, while Biden holds Georgia and Arizona which are perhaps moving leftwards due to demographics.

Of course, I'd like Putin and Netanyahu to withdraw from Ukraine and Gaza respectively, but I suspect that's more hope than anything.

 

[Yew]

- 810s introduced
- 810s withdrawn due to bogie cracks
- Speculation of the forum as to if the 810s could use the bogies from the Alstom/Hitachi HS2 proposal

 

[ian1944]

Wishful thinking:

SNP investigation finally gets to the prosecution stage, with previous FM and Treasurer found guilty of fraud and banged up. Party engages in ferocious infighting and mutual recriminations, collapsing into squabbling fragments as enelectable as Corbyn was.

 

[MasterSpenny]

On the London Underground:

• Bakerloo Line trains announced to run forever
• 2024 Stock enters service

Generally:

• Joe Biden loses in the US Presidential Election
• An alien invasion occurs

The Bus world:

• Alexander Dennis announces the discontinuation of the Enviro 400 MMC being manufactured
• A bus operator forms, then fails and gets discontinued

I can’t think of anything else, when I do I will add them on to this post.

 

[The Ham]

Regardless of if the strikes are sorted or not rail use continues to increase (obviously more so if the strikes are sorted). Currently we're about 2011 values, fairly likely to be about 2013 values (maybe 2015 values if the strikes are sorted).

Tories are too fearful of local election results dragging them down further for an autumn election. Likewise the Tories feel that they can point to low numbers of small boats during the spring (mostly due to bad weather), something which if there's a slightly better summer than last year they'll not be able to do. Whist they don't do as badly as some polls suggest Labour wins.

The blue wall doesn't buy the inheritance tax cut and whilst there's still a lot of Tory MP's there, the Lib Dems see an increase in vote shares (especially amongst the working population and those feed up of not having the services they need).

 

[Mr. SW]

Another string of feasibility studies into the reopening of lines such as Skipton-Colne/Hythe-Fawley/Portishead/Tweedbank-Hawick/[Other favourite reopening scheme here] to be published. To be repeated in five years time.