22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Smidster]

. The Good riddance to social distancing!

And hello to daily testing

Social distance rules on track to end by 21 June, with Covid tests to go to the pub

3,000 people in Liverpool partied restriction-free in Britain's first club night since the pandemic hit

inews.co.uk

 

[brad465]

And hello to daily testing

Social distance rules on track to end by 21 June, with Covid tests to go to the pub

3,000 people in Liverpool partied restriction-free in Britain's first club night since the pandemic hit

inews.co.uk

How easy is it to fabricate the result of a test? I imagine if that's possible the whole thing will be rendered pointless.

Even if that does happen though, as I've said many times, mass testing has never ended a pandemic in the past, and with highly effective covid vaccines we don't need mass testing this time either. The money for such testing should be spent on improving healthcare all round, and promoting healthier lifestyles that help reduce healthcare burdens overall.

I don't know how widely this will be realised or acknowledged, but here's a BMJ article criticising the effectiveness of mass testing at Universities as an example of how pointless this strategy is:

Covid-19: Mass testing at UK universities is haphazard and unscientific, finds BMJ investigation

The rollout of lateral flow tests across campuses has slipped off the radar. How is it working, and what lessons can be learnt, asks Gareth Iacobucci The costly rollout of screening for covid-19 among asymptomatic students at UK universities has found very few positive cases since its launch...

www.bmj.com

The rollout of lateral flow tests across campuses has slipped off the radar. How is it working, and what lessons can be learnt, asks Gareth Iacobucci
The costly rollout of screening for covid-19 among asymptomatic students at UK universities has found very few positive cases since its launch in December, an investigation by The BMJ has found.

Its research shows a mass testing system across UK campuses that is inconsistent and shrouded in secrecy. Almost two thirds of higher education institutions are not collecting data on numbers of students being tested, and a third are not logging how many test positive.

Experts have described campus testing as haphazard and messy, with an “outrageous” price tag. One said that the scheme was putting political ambitions above the goals of science or health.

Among 69 institutions that disclosed three months’ worth of data to The BMJ under the Freedom of Information Act, 1649 positive results were reported from 335 383 tests carried out, a rate of 0.5%.

The BMJ’s research found widespread reluctance among universities and colleges to share information about the costs of testing and its effect on containing the virus. More than three quarters of institutions refused to disclose how much money they had received from the government to set up mass testing. Some cited confidentiality agreements with the Department of Health and Social Care for England as the reason for the non-disclosure.

Experts said the findings—revealed as many universities are poised to welcome students back to campuses after the Easter holidays—cast major doubts on the cost effectiveness, the ethics, and the scientific rigour behind mass screening and called for the programme to be halted.

Allyson Pollock, professor of public health at Newcastle University, and a vocal critic of the testing programme, said, “The clear message from the data is that the mass testing is haphazard, fragmented, disjointed, and absolutely the antithesis of public health. What we have got is a very fine illustration of why we need this programme to go to the [national] screening committee and to be properly evaluated before any more rollouts of tests happen.”

 

[kristiang85]

NHS England publish admission and hospitalisation data every day (dashboard seems pick them up 24 hrs later) and as of 0900 this morning England has 1161 beds occupied by a Covid cases with 170 on mechanical ventilation and 89 admissions. All close to an 8 month low with bed occupancy representing c1% of all NHS England beds.

So why are we still at Level 4 "Level four indicates a high or rising level of transmission, with social distancing still enforced"?

I thought we dropped to 3 a couple of weeks ago? Or was it a recommendation that wasn't followed?

I agree, at the most we should be 2.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I thought we dropped to 3 a couple of weeks ago? Or was it a recommendation that wasn't followed?

I agree, at the most we should be 2.

The CMOs lowered it from 5 to 4 on 25th Feb 21. One month later the head of NHS made a recommendation to DHSC that the NHS could lower its Level from 4 to 3 but this doesn't refer to the UK wide Covid Alert Level. The Joint Biosecurity Centre makes that recommendation and has yet to recommend that the Covid level be lowered. Interestingly though the JBC criteria for lowering from 4 to 3 is

De-escalation from level 4 to level 3​

Indicators​

• Are there estimated to be less than 10,000 new infections per day?
• Is the UK weekly case rate less than 25 per 100,000 population?
• Has the national estimate of R been consistently <1 for at least 4 weeks?
• Have the observed number of new daily COVID-19 confirmed infections, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths been on a downward trend for the last 4 weeks?

Criteria 1 is a tick, but criteria 2 isn't, criteria 3 maybe and criteria 4 looks like a tick to me.

Im not really sure what the purpose of the Covid Alert Levels are anyhow other than for the govt to use for propaganda.

 

[Ediswan]

Criteria 1 is a tick, but criteria 2 isn't, criteria 3 maybe and criteria 4 looks like a tick to me.

For criteria 2, what is a "case" ?
For criteria 3, I have only ever seen a range, not a single number. The high end is always (by definition) pessimistic.

 

[brad465]

The CMOs lowered it from 5 to 4 on 25th Feb 21. One month later the head of NHS made a recommendation to DHSC that the NHS could lower its Level from 4 to 3 but this doesn't refer to the UK wide Covid Alert Level. The Joint Biosecurity Centre makes that recommendation and has yet to recommend that the Covid level be lowered. Interestingly though the JBC criteria for lowering from 4 to 3 is


Criteria 1 is a tick, but criteria 2 isn't, criteria 3 maybe and criteria 4 looks like a tick to me.

Im not really sure what the purpose of the Covid Alert Levels are anyhow other than for the govt to use for propaganda.

That alert system does need reform, particularly because Level 1 is essentially "Zero Covid" (Covid no longer in the UK I believe it's titled), while the whole system was drafted up before vaccines for covid were a thing, while the Government for now at least seem to be against Zero Covid.

Elsewhere The Times are claiming that hugging friends and family will be permitted with the May 17th easement, regardless of whether someone has had a vaccine or not, although social distancing on public transport, at work and around strangers will remain:

 

[VauxhallandI]

If you can hug a friend in a fortnight you can do it tomorrow - data not dates

 

[Simon11]

If you can hug a friend in a fortnight you can do it tomorrow - data not dates

Ive been following the data and been hugging close family and friends for at least a month. I can’t be the only one, especially when loved ones have been giving both jabs.

 

[DelayRepay]

Ive been following the data and been hugging close family and friends for at least a month. I can’t be the only one, especially when loved ones have been giving both jabs.

Same here - I hugged my mum and sister last time I saw them, but they'd both had their first jab a couple of months ago. It was virtually impossible to avoid hugging my niece and nephew, they both jumped on me! They hadn't seen me since October and were excited to be getting both Christmas presents and Easter eggs at the same time.

I am pleased to report that none of us suffered any ill effects as a result of this illicit and unlawful hugging.

 

[westv]

I wasn't brought up in a hugging household.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes, I've no interest in hugging anyone.

Just get the pubs fully opened.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Yes, I've no interest in hugging anyone.

Just get the pubs fully opened.

Only another 9 working days!

 

[yorksrob]

Only another 9 working days!

Indeed - counting them down !

 

[Bald Rick]

Yes, I've no interest in hugging anyone.

Not even a barmaid when she pours you a magnificent pint of bitter, that you can have inside a pub?

 

[yorksrob]

Not even a barmaid when she pours you a magnificent pint of bitter, that you can have inside a pub?

Nah, I don't fancy getting done for harrassment

 

[Jamesrob637]

Only seven deaths reported today which pushes the seven-day rolling average down to 15.29! First single-digit figure not on a Sunday or Monday since Saturday 12th of September (before the second spike) and Saturday 18th of July (after the first spike.)

Cases and hospitalizations are both down a little also.

 

[Class 33]

Today's deaths just 7(6 in England,). Lower than expected today for a weekday. Odds on that tomorrow's figures will probably be a little higher than expected. But maybe not!

Average daily deaths for ENGLAND is now just 12.5! These figures really are VERY low now. It's not too late atall in Monday's Downing Street News Conference for Johnson to surprise us and announce something like "The next stage of the roadmap is due on 17th May. However, due to the hospital numbers and deaths falling far faster than we envisaged, I am happy to announce that I can bring that date forward by one week. The next stage of the roadmap will now be next Monday 10th May.". But no, chances are this won't happen! Absolutely no excuse to delay the 17th May easing though. And if things continue as they are, absolutely no excuse to delay the final stage of easing including all these nonsense damaging restrictions on 21st June.

 

[trainophile]

On the other hand...

Surge testing in east London after cases of two variants of concern detected | ITV News

Surge testing is to be deployed across parts of east London after several cases of the South African and Brazilian Covid variants were detected. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

Surge testing is to be deployed across parts of east London after several cases of the South African and Brazilian Covid-19 variants were detected, health leaders have said. Both have been designated variants of concern by experts

 

[Bald Rick]

Average daily deaths for ENGLAND is now just 12.5! These figures really are VERY low now. It's not too late atall in Monday's Downing Street News Conference to surprise us and announce something like "The next stage of the roadmap is due on 17th May. However, due to the hospital numbers and deaths falling far faster than we envisaged, I am happy to announce that I can bring that date forward by one week.". But no, chances are this won't happen!

I can guarantee it won’t happen; AIUI cabinet have yet to meet to approve that 17 May proceeds yet. I’d be astonished if it isn’t approved though.

As was said when the roadmap was published, and multiple times since, they will stick to the dates assuming there are no setbacks with the data or vaccination. There haven’t been, so we are good to continue. The dates won’t come forward.

And whilst hospital numbers and deaths are falling, they aren’t falling ‘far faster’ than was envisaged. Indeed they are falling at a slightly lower % rate than they were 2 months ago, and are broadly in line with expectations.

 

[Class 33]

On the other hand...

Surge testing in east London after cases of two variants of concern detected | ITV News

Surge testing is to be deployed across parts of east London after several cases of the South African and Brazilian Covid variants were detected. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

That won't come to anything. There have been numerous variants since January, which haven't resulted in an uptick in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

 

[Bald Rick]

That won't come to anything. There have been numerous variants since January, which haven't resulted in an uptick in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

I admire your confidence, and on the balance of probabilities agree with you, but... ‘Past performance is not indicative of future results’. Sooner or later there will be a variant that existing vaccines are less effective at combating, how we react to that will be key.


Changing the subject slightly, the ONS study that showed a big reduction in infection the week follwing the pubs open made me wonder. Pubs / restaurants opening has encouraged a not insignificant proportion of the population to spend more time outside. We know the virus doesn’t like it outside. Causual link?

 

[Pete_uk]

I did my second random test this morning for IPOS & Uni of London. It was much worse than last time with the gagging.

Anyway, my town was busy this afternoon, plenty of groups hanging around. The charity shop I clean (along with youth centre etc) is still doing really well with sales which is encouraging for both retail generally as well as the young people the charity it supports.

In another great sign, the local Iceland has taken its social distancing stickers off the floor. Every little he.. oh that's Tesco!

Huh, Indian variant?

*runs*

 

[trainophile]

I haven't seen a supermarket delivery van up our 33-house cut-de-sac for ages. Used to be a couple most days. Shows people are returning to normal shopping habits, which has to be a good thing.

 

[initiation]

And whilst hospital numbers and deaths are falling, they aren’t falling ‘far faster’ than was envisaged

Can you share what the government's modelling predictions said would happen? The one the roadmap was based on.

I'm pretty sure this hasnt been released.

We have seen some others models, all showing spikes after schools/pubs etc.. opened.. Of course no such thing happened.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I admire your confidence, and on the balance of probabilities agree with you, but... ‘Past performance is not indicative of future results’. Sooner or later there will be a variant that existing vaccines are less effective at combating, how we react to that will be key.


Changing the subject slightly, the ONS study that showed a big reduction in infection the week follwing the pubs open made me wonder. Pubs / restaurants opening has encouraged a not insignificant proportion of the population to spend more time outside. We know the virus doesn’t like it outside. Causual link?

SAGE published the latest technical briefing on variants of concern yesterday with data upto 22/4/21.

The SA profile on detected cases is



and Brazil P1



So neither of which have got any traction maybe due to surge testing but maybe also that the vaccination and existing seroprevalence is sufficient to keep it at bay. Granted no room for complacency but an increasing body of evidence that underpins the roadmap if not again giving grounds for earlier relaxation had not the Indian variant appeared which for completeness is below

 

[Crossover]

NHS England publish admission and hospitalisation data every day (dashboard seems pick them up 24 hrs later) and as of 0900 this morning England has 1161 beds occupied by a Covid cases with 170 on mechanical ventilation and 89 admissions. All close to an 8 month low with bed occupancy representing c1% of all NHS England beds.

So why are we still at Level 4 "Level four indicates a high or rising level of transmission, with social distancing still enforced"?

Just a small note, but for the last few weeks with the significant downturn in hospitalisations etc, NHS don't report Sat/Sun anymore (and presumably won't report on Monday, being a Bank Holiday)

 

[birchesgreen]

I haven't seen a supermarket delivery van up our 33-house cut-de-sac for ages. Used to be a couple most days. Shows people are returning to normal shopping habits, which has to be a good thing.

Odd, supermarket delivery vans are everywhere around here. Maybe we are just lazy in Brum?

 

[bramling]

But they will be Safe™. This isn't about science, it's about appealing to the whims of hypochondriacs, puritans, and busybodies.

I’d say it’s even gone beyond that now. The concept of restrictions seems completely etched upon some people now.

Odd, supermarket delivery vans are everywhere around here. Maybe we are just lazy in Brum?

Still plenty round here, getting in the way and being a general nuisance as usual!

 

[takno]

Odd, supermarket delivery vans are everywhere around here. Maybe we are just lazy in Brum?

Still loads round here as well, although I haven't had any trouble getting a minimum price next-day slot from Sainsbury's or Tesco for the last month or so.

Personally I think probably I'll start going back into the local Tesco for everyday stuff again soon, on the assumption that the mask brigade are on the wane, but it probably makes sense to keep ordering a delivery of tins and booze every couple of weeks.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

This in tomorrows DT https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/01/covid-modellers-optimistic-third-wave-may-not-happen/

New modelling to be presented to ministers ahead of stage three of reopening on May 17 will show the risk of a "third wave" of Covid cases in the UK has diminished dramatically and may not happen at all, according to experts.

The last set of projections, published by Sage on March 31, presented ministers with a difficult dilemma because they suggested a third wave of infections could be expected to kill another 15,000 to 20,000 people in the late summer if steps three and four of the exit roadmap were implemented as planned.

These people just alter the narrative to fit the situation ministers should now be question the reliability of the data being presented to them.