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Airport Expansion in South East England

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Busaholic

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All the talk about Heathrow and Gatwick being treated as one airport operationally ignores the inconvenient fact that the Competition Commission found in 2008 that common ownership of three London airports by BAA was anti-competitive, hence the enforced sale of Gatwick. The chances of them being allowed to co-operate in any way are less than the chances of any plane ever taking off from BorisIsland.
 
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freetoview33

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I think by 2022 Gatwick will have a second runway and by 2030 Heathrow will have a third runway. (I say by 2022 and 2030 but hopefully it will happen earlier than that!)

This will allow further ultra long haul destinations from Heathrow and to continue as a hub. (I do get the argument of why would people travel from Eastern Europe to go to China for example. But plenty of people from the UK travel via Amsterdam to go to the US! So I don't think it will be a major issue.) The main thing people are looking for is an airport where it's A) not too far out of the way B) Is a nice and easy place to transfer at C) There is always price.

Gatwick is likely to see the continued expansion of lower cost airlines such as Easyjet, Norwegian and I think before long IAG will give in and switch Gatwick ops to Vueling. (Just due to competition).

Stansted will continue as now. It seems to be doing a lot better under MAG than it was under BAA.

I think the one area Heathrow will start to loose out on is flights to the USA. Especially if Manchester gets pre clearance and when the A321neo comes out as it will make the East Coast of the USA easy accessible from Birmingham, Bristol, Newcastle, Edinburgh ect.

Otherwise I think other regional airports will continue very much as they are now! With small expansions here and there.

Now the second part is access to Airports and to other parts of the UK.

Personally I am not in favour of HS2. I seriously think the money could be spend much better else where!

I'd like to see HS1 extended to Heathrow (Via Old Oak) as a spur from Stratford International. Heathrow has immigration facilities anyway! And it would allow people to connect to Eurostar bypassing London!

So for instance now if I wanted to go to Paris via train I would have to do Bristol Parkway - London Paddington, tube it to St Pancras, then Eurostar.

Where if Old Oak and Heathrow interchanges are built it would be Bristol Parkway - Old Oak where change onto Eurostar for Paris! No need to even get caught up transferring in Central London!

As part of the Old Oak Interchange there was talk of a slight rerouteing of the West Coast mainline to call there! Which again would stop as many people needing to transfer in Central London. (They could access other rail/bus services at the interchange and be done with)

As with West Coast main line capacity. Surely reopening the Great Central mainline and upgrading the Midland mainline could take a lot of traffic away from the West Coast! (Places such as Birmingham, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Manchester, Carlisle) and would be a fraction of the cost of HS2.

Is there really a need to get from Manchester to London faster? With Manchester Airport expanding. And trains in theory being able to run at 140mph on the West Coast. Surely the main issue is capacity! Which GCML would solve plus, removing the need to travel south to begin with, like Manchester Airport!

Then there are things like Crossrail to Tring. (I think also extending Crossrail from Abbey Wood to Ebbsfleet would provide another link to High Speed lines)

And you could have services like Milton Keynes - Old Oak - Brighton. Avoiding Central London completely.

Then with the proposed Crossrail 2 as well. I think capacity issues could be easily solved without HS2!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Plus you could already have a Heathrow to Gatwick rail service! (It is possible, just)
 

Aictos

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Reopening the former GCML will never happen for a various number of reasons and using the MML to access places like Birmingham, Carlisle and Manchester etc would just be slower then using the WCML.

As is the subject of running Eurostars from Heathrow, that won't happen as that is akin to putting a McDs store in a Burger King store, it just will never happen.

What is happening is Crossrail 1 which means there is no need for HS1 and Eurostar to serve Heathrow as Crossrail 1 offers a simple and direct service between Heathrow and St Pancras Int which will be quicker I believe then using the Piccadilly line between the two and more direct then having to use Heathrow Express and then having to change at Paddington onto a Circle or a Hammersmith & City service.

HS2 on the other hand is happening and will enable more services to be operated on the WCML by running more express services on HS2 for example the current hourly London Midland Crewe services could be increased to half hourly or even run direct between Stafford and Crewe by not having to run via Stoke Upon Trent this would be possible by a Rugeley Trent Valley to Birmingham New Street service being extended to Stafford via Stoke Upon Avon and by more Virgin Trains type services using HS2 freeing up paths in the Trent Valley but I digress from the topic in hand which is airport expansion.

If anything I believe Heathrow will get it's 3rd runway but only at a high cost of heavy restrictions whereas I don't believe Gatwick will get a 2nd runway not until least Heathrow has theirs built first.
 
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What is happening is Crossrail 1 which means there is no need for HS1 and Eurostar to serve Heathrow as Crossrail 1 offers a simple and direct service between Heathrow and St Pancras Int which will be quicker I believe then using the Piccadilly line between the two and more direct then having to use Heathrow Express and then having to change at Paddington onto a Circle or a Hammersmith & City service....

Crossrail doesn't go to St. Pancras Int, so a direct Heathrow- SPI route won't exist, but a convenient interchange will be available at the new Tottenham Court Rd. Crossrail station, to connect onto the Northern Line to SPI.



L
 
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Aictos

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Crossrail doesn't go to St. Pancras Int, so a direct Heathrow- SPI route won't exist, but a convenient interchange will be available at the new Tottenham Court Rd. Crossrail station, to connect onto the Northern Line to SPI.



L

Sorry my mistake, still be quicker then using the Piccadilly line or Heathrow Express.
 

Mikey C

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Crossrail doesn't go to St. Pancras Int, so a direct Heathrow- SPI route won't exist, but a convenient interchange will be available at the new Tottenham Court Rd. Crossrail station, to connect onto the Northern Line to SPI.



L

Actually that doesn't work either as it's the wrong branch of the Northern Line, the best connection will probably to change at Farringdon for Thameslink to SPI, as the Thameslink station is very well located for Eurostar,
 

Busaholic

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The absence of a Crossrail connection with the Piccadilly Line in Central London is really one for another thread, but does seem an anomaly. Even at Ealing Broadway you have to get another tube to Ealing Common first.
 

freetoview33

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Even with crossrail Heathrow still has issues! And surely if crossrail was extended to ebbsfleet that would remove a need for hs1 hs2 link ..... and would be beneficial to Heathrow.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Look at it this way. Both Heathrow and Gatwick are at capacity. Heathrow is at 98% capacity. Gatwick has the busiest runway in the world. With passenger numbers expected to hit 40 million this year
 
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Actually that doesn't work either as it's the wrong branch of the Northern Line, the best connection will probably to change at Farringdon for Thameslink to SPI, as the Thameslink station is very well located for Eurostar,

Oops! Yes you are correct.
Thanks for the correction.



--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Even with crossrail Heathrow still has issues! And surely if crossrail was extended to ebbsfleet that would remove a need for hs1 hs2 link ..... and would be beneficial to Heathrow.

Quite how would it be beneficial to Heathrow?

Kent domestic services to Heathrow?
Kent represents a very small catchment area for Heathrow (2.9% of passengers originating or terminating in the SE of England, less than 2% of all UK originating and terminating passengers).
That includes large areas of Kent that are not close to and would not use Crossrail and HS1; reducing those numbers even further.

HS1 via the Channel Tunnel?
This one was scotched long ago. There's no argument for passengers arriving at Heathrow taking onward rail connections to European mainland cities, which either have their own major hub airports with a very similar (if not wider) range of international air services, or are much closer to other mainland hub airports.
There would be unnecessary additional time, cost and inconvenience involved in doing so. It just doesn't make any sense at all.



 

freetoview33

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Oops! Yes you are correct.
Thanks for the correction.



--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Quite how would it be beneficial to Heathrow?

Kent domestic services to Heathrow?
Kent represents a very small catchment area for Heathrow (2.9% of passengers originating or terminating in the SE of England, less than 2% of all UK originating and terminating passengers).
That includes large areas of Kent that are not close to and would not use Crossrail and HS1; reducing those numbers even further.

HS1 via the Channel Tunnel?
This one was scotched long ago. There's no argument for passengers arriving at Heathrow taking onward rail connections to European mainland cities, which either have their own major hub airports with a very similar (if not wider) range of international air services, or are much closer to other mainland hub airports.
There would be unnecessary additional time, cost and inconvenience involved in doing so. It just doesn't make any sense at all.




It still would allow better access and better access from the west to HS1!
 

HSTEd

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Upgrades of existing infrastructure tends to go badly in Britain.

A new airport means newbuild infrastructure, one or more new railway links and motorways - all without pesky traffic getting in the way.
Sure an Estuary airport is expensive but it totally eliminates the significant environmental impacts of the current airports and allows creation of a hub on the same scale as Hartsfield-Jackson airport in Atlanta.

We are talking on scales of a human lifetime or more.
And the development in the estuary gets you improved flood defences for London almost for free.
 

Airline Man

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Business travellers usually have to be at the airport early in the morning when there is little or no train service, the roads are clear and someone else is paying for the parking. Leisure flights tend to be used by family groups with large amounts of luggage for whom the car or taxi will often be the best choice. So only a fairly high-volume airport is likely to justify a train service, unless perhaps it has a railway alongside with a decent service and a convenient station site within walking distance of the terminal.

The logic of having a hub airport is that it allows connections between flights for people who would otherwise not pass through the UK at all. These people bring little direct benefit to the UK but the argument goes that their existence allows flights to be viable to a much wider range of destinations than otherwise. That won't happen if an inter-airport transfer is involved, because it would just be too slow especially as it would almost certainly involve going through procedures to enter the UK and then re-submitting to security etc before departure. The alternative is some kind of "sealed train" treated as part of airside, but I just don't see that being workable.

However I'm not sure that any UK airport is well placed to capitalise on this for travel to/from the emerging economies in the east, simply because for most of Europe a hub in London would involve an hour or more flying in the wrong direction and the same again to fly approximately over where they started from. We may have to accept that the likes of Dubai have an unassailable geographic advantage.

If the price is right, people will travel in the wrong direction to change flights. I work in Terminal 5 and it is not a pleasant experience changing flights in times of disruption. Approximately 40% of BA's passengers are transfer passengers and the fact is the terminals were never built for numbers going through.

I've been down at a gate and quite often completely full 747's may only have a very small number of 'London joiners' embarking, the rest are transfer passengers. It can only take a couple of flights arriving late resulting in hundreds of 'miss connects' all having to queue up for new boarding passes and rebooking. The queues mean that many people miss their flights and we are then responsible for the passengers, this often means putting them in hotels at the airline's cost.

The airlines and business all want a third runway at Heathrow but it probably won't happen in our lifetimes. Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt have already taken over. As to Dubai that is probably the number one hub in the world.

Heathrow is the most profitable airport in the world, all the airlines want to fly there, but it's completely full. A third runway is needed. The only way for an airline to expand is for them to take over the competition in order to get hold of the slots. BA bought out Britis Midland and are currently trying to buy Aer Lingus. Whilst capacity is constrained competition will suffer and fares will rise.

I'd like to see extra runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted (in a perfect world). Airlines are free to start up long haul services from regional airports but they just don't make money. Yes, it's easy to fill up an aircraft but it's the high yielding business travellers that pay for a flight.

Emirates have a Newcastle - Dubai flight, but in reality Emirates is a nation building tool, they are succeeding in taking over the world.

All the main London airports have a different profile. Heathrow - business. Gatwick - leisure. Stansted - budget airlines.

Politics mean Heathrow won't get a third runway for many many years.

Changing the subject a bit but Heathrow-Paris was the busiest international air route in the world. I would imagine that quite a few people on here were delighted that the train took away a lot of our traffic. Actually BA were pleased. We could reduce capacity and the number of flights on the route and free up the slots for services elsewhere. We'd love trains from UK cities directly into Heathrow for the same reason, but I guess that's not going to happen.

Sorry, haven't read most of the thread, do excuse any repetition or ramblings!
 

freetoview33

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If the price is right, people will travel in the wrong direction to change flights. I work in Terminal 5 and it is not a pleasant experience changing flights in times of disruption. Approximately 40% of BA's passengers are transfer passengers and the fact is the terminals were never built for numbers going through.

I've been down at a gate and quite often completely full 747's may only have a very small number of 'London joiners' embarking, the rest are transfer passengers. It can only take a couple of flights arriving late resulting in hundreds of 'miss connects' all having to queue up for new boarding passes and rebooking. The queues mean that many people miss their flights and we are then responsible for the passengers, this often means putting them in hotels at the airline's cost.

The airlines and business all want a third runway at Heathrow but it probably won't happen in our lifetimes. Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt have already taken over. As to Dubai that is probably the number one hub in the world.

Heathrow is the most profitable airport in the world, all the airlines want to fly there, but it's completely full. A third runway is needed. The only way for an airline to expand is for them to take over the competition in order to get hold of the slots. BA bought out Britis Midland and are currently trying to buy Aer Lingus. Whilst capacity is constrained competition will suffer and fares will rise.

I'd like to see extra runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted (in a perfect world). Airlines are free to start up long haul services from regional airports but they just don't make money. Yes, it's easy to fill up an aircraft but it's the high yielding business travellers that pay for a flight.

Emirates have a Newcastle - Dubai flight, but in reality Emirates is a nation building tool, they are succeeding in taking over the world.

All the main London airports have a different profile. Heathrow - business. Gatwick - leisure. Stansted - budget airlines.

Politics mean Heathrow won't get a third runway for many many years.

Changing the subject a bit but Heathrow-Paris was the busiest international air route in the world. I would imagine that quite a few people on here were delighted that the train took away a lot of our traffic. Actually BA were pleased. We could reduce capacity and the number of flights on the route and free up the slots for services elsewhere. We'd love trains from UK cities directly into Heathrow for the same reason, but I guess that's not going to happen.

Sorry, haven't read most of the thread, do excuse any repetition or ramblings!

You have summed it up very well!

Although surely London - Paris was mainly people wanting to visit London/Paris.

Where I am guessing more people who fly Manchester - London are transfer passengers? So surely the train would be less beneficial to BA.

Also I would imagine Manchester is getting a fair few business passengers now too. Virgin/Delta seem to be growing slightly from Manchester, is this somewhere BA is now loosing out, after they pulled out?

But yes to my earlier point London is fast running out of airport capacity. As Heathrow is full. Gatwick is almost full! Capacity of 45 million and it is expected to be at 41 million+ this year.

So Stansted ..... Has a spare 20+ million capacity. Otherwise London is full!

So yes Gatwick and Heathrow must get new runways.
 

Airline Man

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Most of the traffic to Paris These days are transfer passengers. Ie. New York-London-Paris. I guess price is a major determinant to fly via Heathrow as there are plenty of direct flights to and from Paris. Of course some people will choose to fly anyway and for many businesses west of London air travel is preferable. But when the Eurostar started, yes it devastated the route, but it was expected.

BA pulled out of the because it's high cost base and competition from budget airlines meant that we just couldn't make any money. BA's main market is the high yield, full fare paying business traveller, and as incredible as it seems there's not a lot of that outside of London. We tried operating long haul routes but they just didn't pay.

Despite Heathrow's many (and I do mean many) faults business travellers prefer Heathrow. I'm generalising here but Gatwick will always be bucket and spade and Stansted is that utter hell hole of Ryanair land!

Going off subject but if you fly out of Terminal 5 you may notice all the expensive designer duty free shops in one end of the building (south) whilst the normal range of duty free shops are at the other end (North). First and Business Class check in and the airline lounges are predominately at the southern end of the building so the airport placed all the expensive shops where the high spending first and business class passengers go through. And they made sure that you have to walk past all those shops on the way to the lounge. There is a door that leads you straight into the First Class lounge straight after you get out of security but BA have to pay the BAA some ridiculous amount of money each year (in millions) to compensate the airport for the loss of revenue in the shops.

They make all their money from people shopping, not aircraft landing and taking off!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I understand the chief argument for any airport expansion is 'economic benifits', but what destinations provide the greatest economic boost? Is it long-haul, medium-haul, near-European or domestic flights that are most wanted?

It is suggested here and here that, even with biofuels, it will not be possible to acheive 'zero carbon' status if levels of air traffic remain static. There needs to be a serious reduction in flights so airport expansion is unecessary (except perhaps if the object is to concentrate all remaining flights at a single UK airport).

A third runway at Heathrow will actually reduce levels of pollution. There will be less stacking of aircraft flying around in circles over London, they can more or less fly straight in. Also, as you know when you fly out of Heathrow you can sometimes spend more time on the ground than in the air whilst you are six or seventh in the queue waiting to take off, all this burns fuel. A third runway would ease this.

As regards to economic benefits, I'd never thought about this! I guess long haul due to emerging markets in Asia, particularly China and India. At the moment unless you buy a set of Heathrow slots the only way you can start a new route is by cancelling flights on another route or by cancelling the route altogether or moving it to Gatwick.

Heathrow was never designed as a hub airport, obviously. It just grew and frankly it's a mess. It's always been a building site. How bags manage to get from one terminal to another and between different airlines is beyond most of us. A lot do go missing (temporarily), mostly caused by tight connections. Some effort has been made to ease this by locating airline alliances in the same terminals, ie. T3/5 for one world, T2 for Star Alliance and T4 for Skyteam.

In a perfect world, Boris Island should be the best long term solution, but it ain't going to happen. Government can't or won't make up its mind about extra runways for the South East at present so don't hold your breath about an airport in the middle of the Thames Estuary!

Oh and another reason why Boris Island will never happen is..... Bird life, the RSPB are a mighty powerful pressure group and the marshes around Grain are a major bird habitat.
 
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edwin_m

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If the price is right, people will travel in the wrong direction to change flights.

Up to a point, I suggest.

However with more competition in the industry it's going to get more difficult for airlines to offer a good price for something that incurs extra costs for two hours extra flying time, especially when it also uses a hub like Heathrow which is expensive to use and prone to delays (a third runway might reduce delays but will it reduce airport charges?). So I really can't see Heathrow being a major hub for eastern destinations.
 

Wolfie

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...and here is why Heathrow won't happen!

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/heathrow-plans-for-9000home-new-garden-city-10368603.html

"Mr Holland-Kaye (Heathrow’s chief executive)...He signalled that the airport may not agree to all the conditions for expansion proposed by the Airports Commission, but believes an agreement could be struck on them."

So, when many people feel that the Davies' Commission protections are grossly inadequate Heathrow is already, just as Boris and Zac predicted (and just as they have done after every previous expansion), trying to erode them further... there is only one word for heathrow bosses - LIARS!

If (and it's a big if), the politicians agree to support Heathrow expansion it will be stuck in the Courts, up to and including Strasbourg, for years and then, if Heathrow wins that, there will be a massive campaign of civil disobedience such as has never before been seen in this country!
 
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Airline Man

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I've seen Boris Johnson a few times at Heathrow! I was trying to control my laughter as he was fumbling around looking for his passport rather than engage with him over airport policy (and lose my job).
 

Mikey C

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Do we actually want the connecting traffic at Heathrow?

How much money does UK PLC actually make from people connecting at LHR without leaving the airport? It's fine when you have an airport in the middle of the desert or countryside, or if the airport doesn't have enough demand to support point to point services?
 
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....Approximately 40% of BA's passengers are transfer passengers and the fact is the terminals were never built for numbers going through.

Indeed.
The official figures for all airlines at Heathrow in 2014, show that transfer passengers account for 36% of the total throughput.
The current Airports Commission gave the rough figure of 25% of flights having 40% or more transfer passengers.


Emirates have a Newcastle - Dubai flight, but in reality Emirates is a nation building tool, they are succeeding in taking over the world.

Emirates is indeed involved in nation building and gaining a dominant position in the global air transport market, but they are also making good money on a lot of their routes from the UK regional airports.
Newcastle have the daily flight, but there's also Glasgow, plus two a day from Birmingham, as well as a daily Dublin flight (I count that because it's also taking business away from LHR).

Emirates biggest UK regional operation though, is at Manchester, where there are two A380 and a third B777-300 flight daily. This is more than they are doing at many large European airports and their business is booming.


All the main London airports have a different profile. Heathrow - business. Gatwick - leisure. Stansted - budget airlines.

That's the usual generalisation, but it's not that simple.
While Heathrow has a higher business travel factor than most, Business passengers only account for 33% of the total. That's not to diminish the importance of the airport as a vital business gateway.
Heathrow passengers are two thirds leisure and visiting friends and relatives.
No doubt if a figure was given for yield, it would be more biased towards business travel.


.....Actually BA were pleased. We could reduce capacity and the number of flights on the route and free up the slots for services elsewhere. We'd love trains from UK cities directly into Heathrow for the same reason, but I guess that's not going to happen.

It's quite apparent, that BA have lost an enormous amount of long-haul and European business to/from the UK regions, which is now routing via Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Istanbul etc.
While making more money freeing up slots from short haul A320's etc, to operate more long-haul flights, they have strengthened their competitors and cut themselves off from a large chunk of the UK market.
I don't blame BA for that, they've naturally followed the money; it's a result of the failure to provide more runway capacity at Heathrow, when it was called for two decades ago or more.

Trains from UK cities?
HS2 isn't going to be serving LHR directly (if it's built) and that'll be in the late 2020's at the earliest. Early 2030's for HS2 route extensions. Even if passive provision for a link is built-in, we're looking at 20, 30 or 40 years away.





--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Most of the traffic to Paris These days are transfer passengers. Ie. New York-London-Paris. I guess price is a major determinant to fly via Heathrow as there are plenty of direct flights to and from Paris.

An interesting example as amongst the huge number of flights from Paris, are non-stop flights to New York & Newark by BA OpenSkies.


Of course some people will choose to fly anyway and for many businesses west of London air travel is preferable.

IIRC, the bulk of UK originating Eurostar traffic, is from the London area and central London itself.
If a local airport is more convenient, it will generally be quicker and is often cheaper to fly.


But when the Eurostar started, yes it devastated the route, but it was expected.
BA pulled out of the because it's high cost base and competition from budget airlines meant that we just couldn't make any money.

But BA didn't actually "pull out". They simply scaled down their operation on that route from predominantly wide-bodied aircraft to firstly B757 and then A320 sized planes.

Budget airlines have been noticeable by their absence on London-Paris and have had little to no impact in that particular city pairing market.. Until only very recently, there was only a low frequency Luton-Paris EasyJet service (3/4 a day). Other early attempts folded quickly. Only very recently have EasyJet added Gatwick-Paris flights.

Interestingly, despite the city centre-to city centre benefits of Eurostar, London City to Paris flights only started and have grown in number over the last decade; well after Eurostar became established.


A third runway at Heathrow will actually reduce levels of pollution. There will be less stacking of aircraft flying around in circles over London, they can more or less fly straight in. Also, as you know when you fly out of Heathrow you can sometimes spend more time on the ground than in the air whilst you are six or seventh in the queue waiting to take off, all this burns fuel. A third runway would ease this.

All very true, except that "aircraft flying around in circles", i.e. holding while waiting to land, do so not over London, but out at the various holding "stacks" which are situated outside London (approx. around the M25), or when delays are longer aircraft hold out over the Thames estuary, near the Sussex coast, Cotswolds etc.


As regards to economic benefits, I'd never thought about this! I guess long haul due to emerging markets in Asia, particularly China and India. At the moment unless you buy a set of Heathrow slots the only way you can start a new route is by cancelling flights on another route or by cancelling the route altogether or moving it to Gatwick.

Heathrow is definitely missing out on those new destinations in places like China, in complete contrast to airports like Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. It's not an insignificant opportunity being lost either. This aspect is part of the whole debate.


Heathrow was never designed as a hub airport, obviously. It just grew and frankly it's a mess. It's always been a building site. How bags manage to get from one terminal to another and between different airlines is beyond most of us. A lot do go missing (temporarily), mostly caused by tight connections. Some effort has been made to ease this by locating airline alliances in the same terminals, ie. T3/5 for one world, T2 for Star Alliance and T4 for Skyteam.

I couldn't agree more. The old BAA made a hash of most of the developments, over three decades or more. Thankfully, the mess is finally being sorted out with the redevelopment plans.
Once the T2 extension is completed and T1 & T3 have been demolished, hopefully it will be a far better airport to use and negotiate and far better integrated into the rail services (Crossrail, WRatH, Underground and whatever happens to HEX).


 
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dosxuk

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If (and it's a big if), the politicians agree to support Heathrow expansion it will be stuck in the Courts, up to and including Strasbourg, for years and then, if Heathrow wins that, there will be a massive campaign of civil disobedience such as has never before been seen in this country!

Then what's the point in doing these expensive reports if we're just going to ignore the results?
 

Haydn1971

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Then what's the point in doing these expensive reports if we're just going to ignore the results?


Expensive to us in our daily life, but in the context of the total investment at stake - it's peanuts - a new airport in the Thames was recently priced at nearly £50Bn (I'd expect double myself with the extras), expansion at Heathrow is tabbed at £15Bn IIRC - With the Airports Commission costs at £8m IIRC. The outcome is a recommendation of direction, the report doesn't bypass the planing processes that will still be required, which are subject to being called in by the Sec of State, which can have judicial reviews, challenged in parliament, taken to the high court, then probably the European courts - regardless of the recommendation, there's a long way to go yet and could all change when the Tories have a new leader in circa 2019 - potentially Boris !
 
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radamfi

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New York, like London, has a number of airports serving it and the traffic is spread among them rather than concentrated at one mega-airport. According to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_world's_busiest_airports_by_passenger_traffic

looking at the 2014 full year data, the biggest two New York airports are only the 17th and 44th busiest in the world, compared to London's top two airports at 3rd and 36th in the world.

New York clearly does not have a world beating hub. Does this mean New York is an economic backwater?
 

dosxuk

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Expensive to us in our daily life, but in the context of the total investment at stake - it's peanuts

It's still expensive if all we're going to do is either (a) put off making a decision for long enough that we'll have to commission *another* report to see if the old results are still the same; or (b) just relent to the NIMBYs and not build any more infrastructure anywhere in the UK ever again.

It's not like this is the first report that's come up with this conclusion, and it's unlikely to be the last unless they actually bite the bullet and build the flipping thing. If there's no chance of building it, then the report creators should not be given the option of expanding Heathrow (even if it is by far the best option).

The only other alternative to Heathrow is a new hub airport, in the correct location (i.e. close enough to London, but not on the opposite side of London to the virtually the entire population of the country). And since it's taken decades to still not have an agreement on putting a few miles of railway down in that sort of area, I doubt there's any chance of getting a new airport there.
 

freetoview33

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New York, like London, has a number of airports serving it and the traffic is spread among them rather than concentrated at one mega-airport. According to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_world's_busiest_airports_by_passenger_traffic

looking at the 2014 full year data, the biggest two New York airports are only the 17th and 44th busiest in the world, compared to London's top two airports at 3rd and 36th in the world.

New York clearly does not have a world beating hub. Does this mean New York is an economic backwater?

Thing is the US has multiple major airports down the East Cost, Boston, Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, New York, New Jersey (Newark) to name a few. So traffic is spread out a lot more.
 
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....New York clearly does not have a world beating hub. Does this mean New York is an economic backwater?

New York City is the second busiest city airport system in the world after London.
London is boosted by it's large amount of connecting traffic, but apart from that difference, they are roughly comparable.

The UK's international traffic is largely concentrated on one city, where as the US eastern seaboard has several international gateways and a number of large hub airports.
The 3 busiest NYC airports these days handle largely O&D traffic.

If your suggestion is that London doesn't need to be a major hub to be economically successful, by pointing at NYC, then you are not comparing Apples with Apples (or Big Apple in this case).





 
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radamfi

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New York City is the second busiest city airport system in the world after London.
London is boosted by it's large amount of connecting traffic, but apart from that difference, they are roughly comparable.

The UK's international traffic is largely concentrated on one city, where as the US eastern seaboard has several international gateways and a number of large hub airports.
The 3 busiest NYC airports these days handle largely O&D traffic.

If your suggestion is that London doesn't need to be a major hub to be economically successful, by pointing at NYC, then you are not comparing Apples with Apples (or Big Apple in this case).

You said New York is primarily O & D traffic with other airports in the east of North America acting as hubs. That appears to be acceptable, and doesn't seem to do New York any harm. So why can't London's airports similarly be mainly O & D with other airports acting as hubs in our region?
 

Mikey C

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You said New York is primarily O & D traffic with other airports in the east of North America acting as hubs. That appears to be acceptable, and doesn't seem to do New York any harm. So why can't London's airports similarly be mainly O & D with other airports acting as hubs in our region?

Precisely. None of the big 3 US airlines (United, American, Delta) use JFK as a major hub, which hasn't stopped it being a massively busy airport. When an airport serves a major city like NY or London, connecting traffic isn't important
 

radamfi

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So a new airline wants to fly into London. They only have one choice of Airport. Stansted .....

Well there's capacity available there so it should be used before opening new runways elsewhere. For non-hub traffic it shouldn't matter that much which London airport they use, if people got over their prejudices. More than likely there will be a second runway at Gatwick, as that is much less controversial and can be done without taxpayers' money. However, If hub traffic currently at Heathrow transfers to, say, Amsterdam or Frankfurt, there would then be capacity there too, or traffic could move from Gatwick to Heathrow in that event, releasing that capacity at Gatwick.

There are already plenty of journey opportunities available direct from London, and even more with just one change. Far more than most places in the world.
 
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You said New York is primarily O & D traffic with other airports in the east of North America acting as hubs. That appears to be acceptable, and doesn't seem to do New York any harm. So why can't London's airports similarly be mainly O & D with other airports acting as hubs in our region?

Precisely. None of the big 3 US airlines (United, American, Delta) use JFK as a major hub, which hasn't stopped it being a massively busy airport. When an airport serves a major city like NY or London, connecting traffic isn't important

Lets get some perspective.
LHR connecting passengers 2014 = 36%
JFK connecting passengers 2013 = 35%
EWR connecting passengers 2013 = 40%
LGA connecting passengers 2013 = 22%

The NYC airports figures are far lower than at the major US hub airports.
Predominantly O&D has a different meaning in the US context, than that in the context of the UK.






 
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