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Alternative reality: what would BR have been like now if we hadn't privatised?

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Bletchleyite

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Coming from this thread on catering:


...it was mentioned that privatisation had seen massive revenue and passenger growth.

So an alternative reality - had BR continued, but been given the much more generous funding the privatised railway has largely enjoyed, what would it have been like?

I think it could easily have been the best nationalised railway in the world - the main reason BR was often a bit rubbish was that it was underfunded. What might we have seen? IC250? Crossrail much earlier? What else?
 
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Bantamzen

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Coming from this thread on catering:


...it was mentioned that privatisation had seen massive revenue and passenger growth.

So an alternative reality - had BR continued, but been given the much more generous funding the privatised railway has largely enjoyed, what would it have been like?

I think it could easily have been the best nationalised railway in the world - the main reason BR was often a bit rubbish was that it was underfunded. What might we have seen? IC250? Crossrail much earlier? What else?
Firstly I would ask would it have been given more generous funding had it stayed in the public sector? In the period since privatisation was started, there have been numerous crises for governments, and a lot of cut-backs. So altering reality just slightly, I'd say it could well be in a worse situation than now, and maybe even 1994.
 

Sun Chariot

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The thread is essentially predicated on the idea that it did receive the funding the privatised railway got.
Difficult and fascinating topic:

Do we assume the DfT's role is "as now", or as minimal as it was pre-privatisation? I'm certain that railway assets would be "sweated": trains get 30+ years' active service; instead of "new-ish trains stored once out of lease".

Do we assume the profitable sectors - ostensibly - subsidise their loss-making ones? Intercity and NSE turned good profit and, if I recall, helped BR offset Provincial's losses.

Do we assume a Public-Private investment model, instead of wholly from Govt Subsidy? Taking other industries'innovation in funding, planning and delivering large scale construction (I am assuming HS1, HS2, EWR and Crossrail/EL still happen).

Do we assume the "Ed Burkhardt effect" - sourcing overseas motive power? Or do we assume a mix of UK vs overseas? I recognise the 59s pre-date privatisation but they were, then, niche products for FY, ARC, NP.

And who's at the helm of this railway? Pete Waterman? :D
 
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Belfastmarty

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For sure it wouldn't have been as disjointed and silo'd as it currently is. Hopefully it would have had a sensible rolling stock strategy with properly planned build programs and cascades rather than having youthful stock in storage with few obvious alternative uses. I'd assume that private finance would have played an increasing role in the funding model.
 
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Slam door stock in the Southern Region would have been replaced much earlier than it was

DOO likely more widespread than is today

Fares would have been lower and simpler

IC250 or equivalent for sure as the WCML was falling apart and even the most penny pinching government couldn't ignore it for much longer.

Electrification of GWML and MML long since done with HST replaced.
 

LLivery

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Better Intercity stock (IC250 and a new generation from the 2010s probably), lower fares (to an extent), a sensible smart card scheme, no London Overground, more electrification mileage.

Freightliner a major European player owned by BR and BR having some transport contracts around the world.

Regional split up accounting for Blair's Home Nation Devolution.
 

Bald Rick

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The thread is essentially predicated on the idea that it did receive the funding the privatised railway got.

The privatised railway didnt really get mcuh in the way of increased funding until after Hatfield. And dont forget that much of the investment pre Hatfield was private finance from the ROSCOs, and it is not a safe assumption that that would have been forthcoming in a public ownership model.
 

Gaelan

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I suspect we'd have better integration between Eurostar and domestic services (i.e. through ticketing) if BR had retained its stake in the operation.
 

Transilien

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Perhaps HS1 and HS2 would come earlier with a more integrated rail industry which put all of its resources on one project. Also, privatisation brought a major stop on any train orders starting so maybe slam door trains would be replaced earlier on.
 

JamesT

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I suspect we'd have better integration between Eurostar and domestic services (i.e. through ticketing) if BR had retained its stake in the operation.
The UK stake in Eurostar was only sold in 2015.
 

Djgr

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Probably lower driver wages (and therefore running costs), that were primarily driven up by "competition".
 

RailWonderer

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As an enthusiast it would be a lot more boring on the rolling stock side. We wouldn’t have Siemens or Stadler rolling stock for sure.

It’s a strange question because the privatised railway received more funding partly because the companies made losses that they knew the govt would subsidise so they then overspent.

Then because passenger numbers were increasing so much the DfT were more inclined to fund the losses. But you had less direct control under BR than the DfT has now.

I think it would’ve misspent funds on becoming more bloated and inefficient and bureaucratic.
 

WAB

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As an enthusiast it would be a lot more boring on the rolling stock side. We wouldn’t have Siemens or Stadler rolling stock for sure.
Are you sure? BREL was suffering even when there was simply an internal market. Even when it was newly privatised and enjoyed sympathy from all levels of BR, it suffered. If BREL didn’t up its game, the current spread of manufacturers could still have existed, perhaps though with fewer UK sites.
 

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A "BR survives" alternative universe? I think my signature could provide some answers...

Having done and obsessive amount of research on what BR could have been, I think it would have run into difficulty under New Labour. The new Labour project was famously uninterested in transport. And it's been said that Gordon Brown only really cared about transport as much as what profit can be extracted from their running. I would imagine that come the early 2000s, Regional Railways would certainly have been broken up with the view to have the constituent regional parts operated by the aborted English regional assemblies. I'd imagine afterwards, the RR constituent parts would be privatised on a concession model with the basic look of the branding remaining the same.

The best way to get BR to stay alive would be to have Margaret Thatcher survive her leadership competition and win narrowly a hypothetical general election in summer 1991. Apparently, Summer 1991 was her preferred date to go to the polls before 1992 became set in stone. If this had happened, we can safely assume Michael Heseltine would not be back in her government. So, it's likely that when the CTRL route would be decided, Thatcher would choose BR's southerly route via Warwick Gardens, seeing as it was Heseltine who lobbied hard for the current eastward path. I wonder how that would have changed things. It's been suggested a number of times before that the Kings Cross Low Level station plan might not have been technically possible to build.

Networkers galore, Thameslink maybe goes ahead. Not sure about the original Crossrail plan though. Didnt it block the path of the East London Line extension at Bishopsgate? I reckon that BR would electrify the Midland Mainline at least to Nottingham using surplus stock from the WCML cascade.

By the year 2000 I think Network SouthEast would become more ideologically split between Metro and outer suburban services. I can imagine Ken Livingstone wanting to get his hands on inner London NSE subsectors when he takes power.
 

The exile

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Quite possibly at this stage a lot of long-in-the-tooth push-pull IC stock along the lines of 91s + Mk. 4s - including on electrified GW and Midland Mainlines with lots of Networker-derivatives on electrified suburban services as the desert of stock orders (and no doubt other capital investment) that surrounded privatisation wouldn't have happened. Pacers and possibly even a few slam-door units still eking out an existence on minor branches (Lymington, for example) as it was much easier to bring pressure to bear on private companies to withdraw by a fixed date than it would have been "in house". Derogations from any legislation would have been much easier to get!
 

Bletchleyite

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A "BR survives" alternative universe? I think my signature could provide some answers...

Wow, that's an excellent read!

Another one I've come across is this Twitter/X account which does some conceptual art on the subject, though it does go with the idea of BR being "set in stone" and things like liveries not changing, which seems very improbable to me - BR would have evolved, just maybe in a different way to the privatised railway. I can't however find it at the moment - if anyone knows it a link would be great :)
 

Sad Sprinter

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Wow, that's an excellent read!

Another one I've come across is this Twitter/X account which does some conceptual art on the subject, though it does go with the idea of BR being "set in stone" and things like liveries not changing, which seems very improbable to me - BR would have evolved, just maybe in a different way to the privatised railway. I can't however find it at the moment - if anyone knows it a link would be great :)

Thanks so much! It took a lot of work, a lot of sneaking into Waterstones to read "The Network South East Story" and putting it back on the shelf because I was too broke back then to actually buy it. I keep meaning to go back and write the final few chapters. But you know how life gets in the way.

This is the Twitter page you're talking about: https://twitter.com/DCensam_
 

Djgr

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Some of the logos of the nationalised industries were very powerful. British Rail is obviously one but British Steel for one is also iconic.

Of course, in the brave new privatised world we have seen a bewildering range of logos, names and colour schemes, most of which now assigned to the dustbin of history.
 

sprinterguy

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This is the Twitter page you're talking about: https://twitter.com/DCensam_
Funnily enough I only came across that page for the first time earlier this week: As noted above, it does seem to rely on the peculiar conceit that the BR network remain preserved in aspic as a pastiche of it's early nineties self, like a sort of national heritage line.

From my own perspective:

Intercity 250 had been kicked into the long grass by June 1992 through lack of funding at a time of recession, but by the end of 1993 plans for what we now know as the West Coast Route Modernisation had begun to gestate (Projected to cost £3 Billion at the time), so it's plausible that IC250 could have been resurrected for that as a more cost effective means to modernise the WCML in a phased manner. Intercity were increasingly vocal that the class 86s in particular required replacement, and the proposed IC225 order for the WCML had already been pipped to the post for funding by NSE with what became the 365s, so it seems rational that WCRM would have been the next big project, in some form, whether privatisation had occurred or not.

A major refurbishment of the Intercity HST fleet was planned to take place between 1995 - 2000. If the features demonstrated by the two market test vehicles that were converted had been incorporated into a fleet wide programme, then this would have seen the guard's accommodation moved from the TGS to a mid-train location (using converted TGS vehicles), and the introduction of electronic reservation displays and at-seat radio jacks earlier than we saw them appear on the Voyagers.

A refresh of the Intercity identity would probably have accompanied the HST refurbishment and new train introduction on the West Coast.

Assuming a 15-ish year lifespan following refurbishment, the HSTs would have become due for replacement around 2012. I strongly suspect that their replacement would have been developed along very similar lines to the Intercity Express Project: A bi-mode train with longer, 25 metre carriages and underfloor engines in 5 - 9 car formations, just perhaps a couple of years earlier than we've actually seen. The Intercity brand would be comprehensively overhauled to accompany this.

BR typically focused on one major infrastructure project at a time: So I would expect that, following the West Coast Route Modernisation, that Great Western electrification would have been next on the agenda, tied in with HST replacement. I wouldn't have thought the timescales for this would have been hugely different to what we have seen, but I would expect it to have been more comprehensive, with Oxford, Bath and Bristol wired up as part of the primary scheme (and the planned Oxford remodelling carried out at the same time).

Akin to the WCML class 86s, the Crosscountry class 47 and mark 2 rakes would have required replacement sooner rather than later: There was a proposal at one time for 1+5 push-pull HST sets on Crosscountry services, so that might have gone ahead, as it would reduce fuel and maintenance costs. But I think it more likely that, alongside the existing HST sets, there would be push-pull mark 3 rakes cascaded from the WCML post-upgrade, with new build class 48 locomotives (built instead of the class 67 fleet, though perhaps similar in design depending on who won the construction tender), as Intercity would want to get their money's worth out of their fairly new DVTs: Not dissimilar to how some have found alternative employ on diesel-powered, mid-length Chiltern and Welsh Marches services in the present day.

BR had commenced a refurbishment of the Regional Railways class 156 fleet: This would probably have been continued to completion, with all units fitted with Chapman seating.

I would expect Strathclyde PTE to receive their 21 x 2-car class 157 units in 1997 as was intended, replacing the remaining 'heritage' DMUs in Scotland. Ultimately, in reality a fleet of 24 x 3-car class 170s was instead ordered by the privatised Scotrail a few years later than this. Without the uncertainty of looming privatisation, West Yorkshire may have received their proposed 14 class 323 units for Airedale and Wharfedale electrification.

As noted above, I absolutely would have expected third rail electrification to be extended to include the Oxted and Marshlink lines. And as also noted above, I would expect that slam door units would have been phased out earlier than proved to be the case, through a rolling programme of Networker construction, drip-fed through funding approval on a case by case basis. I would expect that ABB York would have remained open, at least for a while, without the three year new train order drought that privatisation caused. Adtranz may have consolidated on their Derby site ultimately.

Would the Class 471 long-distance Networkers have been built? I suspect that they would have ended up vying for funding alongside the IC250 order for the West Coast, with the 32-train IC250 order being prioritised instead.
 
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Clarence Yard

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Yes, they would, together with the cl.171 units for Waterloo-Exeter. The RR cl.158 total would have remained as the full build or added to.
 

Djgr

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The move to electronic tickets and advance fares would have happened.
There would be no-TOC only tickets
There would be no such thing as split ticketing.
There would not be any third party ticket sellers such as Trainline.
There would have been an increase in the range of fares between destinations but not as extreme as we have today.
 

Sad Sprinter

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Funnily enough I only came across that page for the first time earlier this week: As noted above, it does seem to rely on the peculiar conceit that the BR network remain preserved in aspic as a pastiche of it's early nineties self, like a sort of national heritage line.

From my own perspective:

Intercity 250 had been kicked into the long grass by June 1992 through lack of funding at a time of recession, but by the end of 1993 plans for what we now know as the West Coast Route Modernisation had begun to gestate (Projected to cost £3 Billion at the time), so it's plausible that IC250 could have been resurrected for that as a more cost effective means to modernise the WCML in a phased manner. Intercity were increasingly vocal that the class 86s in particular required replacement, and the proposed IC225 order for the WCML had already been pipped to the post for funding by NSE with what became the 365s, so it seems rational that WCRM would have been the next big project, in some form, whether privatisation had occurred or not.

A major refurbishment of the Intercity HST fleet was planned to take place between 1995 - 2000. If the features demonstrated by the two market test vehicles that were converted had been incorporated into a fleet wide programme, then this would have seen the guard's accommodation moved from the TGS to a mid-train location (using converted TGS vehicles), and the introduction of electronic reservation displays and at-seat radio jacks earlier than we saw them appear on the Voyagers.

A refresh of the Intercity identity would probably have accompanied the HST refurbishment and new train introduction on the West Coast.

Assuming a 15-ish year lifespan following refurbishment, the HSTs would have become due for replacement around 2012. I strongly suspect that their replacement would have been developed along very similar lines to the Intercity Express Project: A bi-mode train with longer, 25 metre carriages and underfloor engines in 5 - 9 car formations, just perhaps a couple of years earlier than we've actually seen. The Intercity brand would be comprehensively overhauled to accompany this.

BR typically focused on one major infrastructure project at a time: So I would expect that, following the West Coast Route Modernisation, that Great Western electrification would have been next on the agenda, tied in with HST replacement. I wouldn't have thought the timescales for this would have been hugely different to what we have seen, but I would expect it to have been more comprehensive, with Oxford, Bath and Bristol wired up as part of the primary scheme (and the planned Oxford remodelling carried out at the same time).

Akin to the WCML class 86s, the Crosscountry class 47 and mark 2 rakes would have required replacement sooner rather than later: There was a proposal at one time for 1+5 push-pull HST sets on Crosscountry services, so that might have gone ahead, as it would reduce fuel and maintenance costs. But I think it more likely that, alongside the existing HST sets, there would be push-pull mark 3 rakes cascaded from the WCML post-upgrade, with new build class 48 locomotives (built instead of the class 67 fleet, though perhaps similar in design depending on who won the construction tender), as Intercity would want to get their money's worth out of their fairly new DVTs: Not dissimilar to how some have found alternative employ on diesel-powered, mid-length Chiltern and Welsh Marches services in the present day.

BR had commenced a refurbishment of the Regional Railways class 156 fleet: This would probably have been continued to completion, with all units fitted with Chapman seating.

I would expect Strathclyde PTE to receive their 21 x 2-car class 157 units in 1997 as was intended, replacing the remaining 'heritage' DMUs in Scotland. Ultimately, in reality a fleet of 24 x 3-car class 170s was instead ordered by the privatised Scotrail a few years later than this. Without the uncertainty of looming privatisation, West Yorkshire may have received their proposed 14 class 323 units for Airedale and Wharfedale electrification.

As noted above, I absolutely would have expected third rail electrification to be extended to include the Oxted and Marshlink lines. And as also noted above, I would expect that slam door units would have been phased out earlier than proved to be the case, through a rolling programme of Networker construction, drip-fed through funding approval on a case by case basis. I would expect that ABB York would have remained open, at least for a while, without the three year new train order drought that privatisation caused. Adtranz may have consolidated on their Derby site ultimately.

Would the Class 471 long-distance Networkers have been built? I suspect that they would have ended up vying for funding alongside the IC250 order for the West Coast, with the 32-train IC250 order being prioritised instead.

Yes I thought that XC would end up with class 67 + MK3 + DVT rakes. That would be interesting. What's a class 48 by the way?

If Crossrail was built in this timeline, the GWML would only need electrification from Reading onwards. I wonder how quickly the HSTs could be released for further Cross Country duties.

I've theorised in the past that if IC250 didn't happen, then they might order some kind of co-co 125mph max freight/passenger loco to haul existing MK3 sets on the WCML. Maybe. You'd still need a replacement to the MK2 carriages though if this did happen.
 

Fawkes Cat

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It seems to me that the big difference would have been less competition in all fields.

Some of this would have been economically to the benefit of the railways - someone has pointed out above that the privatised railways have seen drivers' pay bid up substantially. And in terms of rolling stock, it's more likely that rather than companies being able to buy (more accurately lease) new, there would be much more in the way of cascading of stock down onto services: this would probably have been cheaper but might well have seen 'secondary' lines operating on older stock: this might not be seen as better for the passenger.

Against this, competition has seen (some) fares driven down: I don't imagine there would be the wide range of advance and single-operator fares that you see on some routes - although in turn this brings complexity to fares, which in general is not seen as a good thing.

In terms of routes, while there was a spurt of innovation around the time of privatisation (didn't whoever had the North West non-intercity services try a Rochdale - London service?), most of it fell away. So the route network might look much the same as now.

In terms of management, as someone (else?) has said above, it seems likely that transport in Scotland and Wales would have been devolved. Given the politics of those two nations, ScotRail and TfW might be recognisable as the same as in our current timeline. Otherwise, my feeling is that BR was well down the road to sectorisation, and this would probably have continued. Indeed, assuming that privatisation hadn't happened in the 1990s, it's possible to imagine it happening to InterCity and Regional Railways at a later point - but separately with profitable IC sold off, and loss making RR operated under contract by - maybe - bus companies. On this model, Network SouthEast would end up being run by TfL - possibly with some sort of separate 'outer' TfL-like organisation for operations significantly well away from London (apologies - I'm not explaining this well: TfL wouldn't want to run services from Waterloo to Exeter, so maybe something made up of appropriate county councils from Surrey down to Devon and the Department for Transport would be set up to act as TfL would act for services in or near London).
 

Trestrol

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As an enthusiast it would be a lot more boring on the rolling stock side. We wouldn’t have Siemens or Stadler rolling stock for sure.
But you would have had rolling stock that was more compatible with each other. All BR second generation DMUS (14x and 15x) could be coupled and operated together. How much compatibility is there now?
 

deltic

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The move to electronic tickets and advance fares would have happened.
There would be no-TOC only tickets
There would be no such thing as split ticketing.
There would not be any third party ticket sellers such as Trainline.
There would have been an increase in the range of fares between destinations but not as extreme as we have today.
There would certainly be split ticketing and third party retailers. The latter have always existed - ie travel agents. Conservative governments would probably have encouraged organisations such as Trainline as a way of reducing cost of ticket sales which was extremely high when virtually all were sold via ticket offices. Given BR would have further extended Advance tickets and peak/off-peak tickets would have been retained there would have been scope for split ticketing albeit probably on a smaller scale than exists now.
 

yorksrob

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I would have expected the business sectors to further develop and go from strength to strength.

BR had a fairly steady rolling stock replacement programme from the mid 1980's until privatisation became a policy, so I would have expected this to continue.

I agree that Uckfield and Marshlink would have been electrified (maybe more electrification of the other regions by OLE).

On the negative side, I suspect that the slammers would have been withdrawn earlier.
 

DJ_K666

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Before I begin, the context of my post here should be seen as follows: I was dead against privatisation at the time and remain dead against it now. If I could I would wipe away all trace of the TOCs, ROSCOs and Neteork Rail and return the railways to their pre-1997 status.

OK so we're talking about passenger numbers increasing. More trains running better investment, sll of which happened post-privatisation. Did it happen as a direct result or just afterwards? I suspect the latter. Ultimately if there is an excess of paperwork and meetings (4 years of meaningless meetings from what I hear) just to detach 4 coaches at New Street, like on the Euston to Shrewsbury service, when BR would have just done it regardless using operations planning then that would count in my view as a major failing.
I've seen train operators struggle to get me 20 miles in less than 2 hours, not just occasionally but regularly. Trains timed to miss each other when a small adjustment could have doubled my available trains.
I've seen fares skyrocket and not just by a little bit. Year on year increases of morevthan inflation and read about fare cuts on the continent. All the whild the Rail Delivery group whining about criticism and saying we'll we need to invest.
Yeah, you invested in cheap fares across the channel you lying so and so's.

I've seen reliability drop to the point that I could not rely on the train to get me to and from work. I've seen fragmentation that meant doing anything meant going through three different companies whereas before it was between driver and guard (remember them?)
Well done you all. Show handcliaps all round.


So no. Given the chance the railways should not only be De-privatised but the whole thing should be under the BRB with light touch from the DaFT, who should go back to being the Department Of Transport, get rid of all this 'Department For...' nonsense

Bringing back railfreight, Red Star Parcels, The Rolling stock builders once again becoming part of BREL, retufn of Stenz Line to being Sealink, run by BR, Lindvto being and shutting the hold P word in a metaphorical box and metaphorically welding it shut until it fades from the collective memory. And warn future generations of the folly that occurred in 1997.

So yes, the railways should be de-privatised.

As to what could have happened, I'd possibly say more involvement from the PTEs, maybe a jump to contactless travel bypassing the ticketing websites.
Only a small number of This Train Only tickets. I think there were advance tickets back then but they were special ones, like boat train tickets before the channel tunnel. We'd have a lot more flexibility as to the choice of trains. Your intended train packed? Get the fast one or the one before it. I'd like to think there wouldn't be any of this 'You WILL get off at the station stated and not the one before it despite it being more convenient for you' rubbish. Honestly. People being penalised for taking a slightly shorter journey than paid for.. there'd probably still be the 'Gold Tops', the travelling RPIs with the gold braid in their hats. Remember them?
 
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