ATW/Keolis Amey Wales stock shortages

[daikilo]

Would the managers who ran the ATW maintainance operation not be largely the same ones who now run the TfW Rail one?

... and the drivers are the same, the trains are the same and the NR RHTT rotations are probably similar, leading to the obvious conclusion that it has been a 1 in X autumn and it may be or not over yet. Somehow I doubt SNCF will find that answer, but any Welsh railperson will.

Now, if ATW saw it coming and chose to drop out of the bidding ...

 

[Gareth Marston]

... and the drivers are the same, the trains are the same and the NR RHTT rotations are probably similar, leading to the obvious conclusion that it has been a 1 in X autumn and it may be or not over yet. Somehow I doubt SNCF will find that answer, but any Welsh railperson will.

Now, if ATW saw it coming and chose to drop out of the bidding ...

Are you saying Welsh Government/ Transport for a Wales/ KelisAmey didn't?

 

[Mark Carter]

What happened to the stock of spare parts when ATW finished?

 

[Cardiff123]

What happened to the stock of spare parts when ATW finished?

There weren't any. From what has been said by TfW Rail, parts were ordered in as and when needed by ATW

 

[Cardiff123]

Interesting that James Price talked about hiring in 'quite old' trains next year for 9 or 10 months to provide a short term capacity boost for passengers.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welsh-train-bosses-grilled-services-15481053

"Over and above that what we're looking at, it's still too early to commit, we're looking to see if we can bring in additional rolling stock, it certainly won't be new, it'll be quite old, for nine or 10 months next year to just provide a bit of a boost."

They are talking to other operators to assist with overcrowding.

Mr Price continued: "To be clear, there is nothing available right now, but there might be from February or March next year. If we can bring something in, even if it's for six or nine months, to make things better for passengers that's what we'll do."

He said: "Passengers and customers will start to see a difference from spring next year and that's in advance of the purpose built fleet we've ordered as well."

 

[Llanigraham]

Reported that tthe Cambrian will be back to running it's normal timetable on Saturday, but no promises for next week.

 

[Kyle1]

Interesting that James Price talked about hiring in 'quite old' trains next year for 9 or 10 months to provide a short term capacity boost for passengers.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welsh-train-bosses-grilled-services-15481053

The fact he says 9-10 months basically means TFW want Northern's Pacers on a short term lease before they have to be scrapped. At this rate I'm sure the majority of people would take them, a crap train is still infinitely better than no train.

 

[krus_aragon]

Yesterday's committee transcript is up: http://record.assembly.wales/Committee/5157
There's a lot to read through, but it's well worth doing so. I'm about half-way through at the moment.

 

[PHILIPE]

The fact he says 9-10 months basically means TFW want Northern's Pacers on a short term lease before they have to be scrapped. At this rate I'm sure the majority of people would take them, a crap train is still infinitely better than no train.

Have they twigged at last that there may be a number of 144s available after all or referring to the 769s ?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Yesterday's committee transcript is up: http://record.assembly.wales/Committee/5157
There's a lot to read through, but it's well worth doing so. I'm about half-way through at the moment.

Yes but it just reinforces my long held view that the 2003 contract was a strategic and policy blunder (which was my view at the very start) and doing nothing about for 15 years has been a greater policy and strategic mistake.

OK- the greater incidences of storm events over the last few years is a new factor to contend with but if the calls were listened to that said the franchise was inadequately resourced in terms of rolling stock and acted on it some years ago this would have mitigated what we saw this autumn.

 

[PHILIPE]

Yes but it just reinforces my long held view that the 2003 contract was a strategic and policy blunder (which was my view at the very start) and doing nothing about for 15 years has been a greater policy and strategic mistake.

OK- the greater incidences of storm events over the last few years is a new factor to contend with but if the calls were listened to that said the franchise was inadequately resourced in terms of rolling stock and acted on it some years ago this would have mitigated what we saw this autumn.

It would appear that ATW just sat back instead of trying to negotiate with the DFT re the shortage of stock and just carried on "This is the franchise contract so we stick to it, nothing more, nothing less"

 

[Dai Corner]

It would appear that ATW just sat back instead of trying to negotiate with the DFT re the shortage of stock and just carried on "This is the franchise contract so we stick to it, nothing more, nothing less"

Or it could be argued that Governments just sat back and instead of negotiating with ATW to acquire more stock* just carried on with the franchise contract regardless.

* Gerald excepted

 

[daikilo]

Have they twigged at last that there may be a number of 144s available after all or referring to the 769s ?

The transcript contains a lot of interesting points, not all of which I was aware of. In particular the 769s will go on Liverpool-Chester & Chester- Wrexham.

I'm still intrigued to know what Keolis/Amey is actually accountable for unless there is say a 3 month transition period.

 

[Cardiff123]

Have they twigged at last that there may be a number of 144s available after all or referring to the 769s ?

The 769s aren't due in service until May at the earliest, Price has said they're looking at trains that might be available in 'February or March' next year. 769s are staying a lot longer than '9 or 10 months'.
He's clearly referring to ex-Northern Pacers, hence the 'quite old trains' remark, but obviously he doesn't want to admit in public that they are looking at hiring in more Pacers, even for a few months, to help relieve overcrowding and ease the pain whilst 150s are away for PRM work.

 

[krus_aragon]

The transcript contains a lot of interesting points, not all of which I was aware of. In particular the 769s will go on Liverpool-Chester & Chester- Wrexham.

I'm still intrigued to know what Keolis/Amey is actually accountable for unless there is say a 3 month transition period.

Or the arrival of the 769s will release stock to operate Liverpool-Chester and Chester-Wrexham. (I think the capacity of a 769 would be more needed of the valleys, with a 150 sent up north for those services). Remember that one "sweetener" that included the delay of the Liverpool-Chester service was the fact that two services would be extended to Wrexham from service start.

 

[krus_aragon]

The 769s aren't due in service until May at the earliest, Price has said they're looking at trains that might be available in 'February or March' next year. 769s are staying a lot longer than '9 or 10 months'.
He's clearly referring to ex-Northern Pacers, hence the 'quite old trains' remark, but obviously he doesn't want to admit in public that they are looking at hiring in more Pacers, even for a few months, to help relieve overcrowding and ease the pain whilst 150s are away for PRM work.

I think that the events of the past two weeks will make it more publicly acceptable to hire-in some short-term Pacers next year. The PRM modification timetable will clearly have been knocked by this spate of wheel-flats. I can't blame him for not wanting to use the p-word quite yet, though.

 

[PHILIPE]

The transcript contains a lot of interesting points, not all of which I was aware of. In particular the 769s will go on Liverpool-Chester & Chester- Wrexham.

I'm still intrigued to know what Keolis/Amey is actually accountable for unless there is say a 3 month transition period.

It doesn't mean that the 769s will go onto Liverpool-Chester-Wrexhams. I think the intention is for them to go onto the Rhymney Valley Line to replace current 4 Car diagrams to enable 150s to be released to work the Liverpools. 4 Cars would be overkill on these services

 

[Gareth Marston]

No announcement Ive seen from TfW/Welsh Government about January fares but retail stems have price increases for TfW owned fares from 2nd January.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It would appear that ATW just sat back instead of trying to negotiate with the DFT re the shortage of stock and just carried on "This is the franchise contract so we stick to it, nothing more, nothing less"

There were strong rumors they were going to jack it in around 2004/2005 (if only) but they stuck it out and benefited from the SRA's incompetence and got 10% per annum revenue growth almost year on year at some points without really having to do much for it. All they had to do was run a basic service for a falsely assumed declining market. The national rise in rail demand and above inflation fare increases meant any renegotiation of terms was a risk they decided not worth taking. The £ kept flowing in.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Or it could be argued that Governments just sat back and instead of negotiating with ATW to acquire more stock* just carried on with the franchise contract regardless.

* Gerald excepted

There's an element of truth in that view as well. WG did fund 2 x 158 extra in 2006. Gerald was at the whim of the then Transport Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones and the north Wales LHCS was part of the compensation deal for DB taking over Arriva in 2010 which it appeared they forgot about until someone in DfT remembered it a couple of years later. But since 2011 when the Carwyn Jones Administration flew solo......

 

[Cardiff123]

There's an element of truth in that view as well. WG did fund 2 x 158 extra in 2006. Gerald was at the whim of the then Transport Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones and the north Wales LHCS was part of the compensation deal for DB taking over Arriva in 2010 which it appeared they forgot about until someone in DfT remembered it a couple of years later. But since 2011 when the Carwyn Jones Administration flew solo......

There was the Valleys Strengthening program as well, that we only found out about a few months ago, that used Welsh Govt and EU structural funds to secure extra 150s for Valleys diagrams around 2008 ish

 

[43096]

It would appear that ATW just sat back instead of trying to negotiate with the DFT re the shortage of stock and just carried on "This is the franchise contract so we stick to it, nothing more, nothing less"

It would appear. So you are guessing. Again.

Just as possible ATW tried to get additional stock in but DfT and/or TfW said no. It’s also not like there has been a surplus of stock in the last decade.

 

[Eccles1983]

Forgive my ignorance but does any part of the valleys lines have OLE?

If not then 769's are completely wasted down there.

The diesel part is meant to cover gaps. Not solely be used throughout - I can't see the ROSCO being happy that the pan is never raised.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It would appear. So you are guessing. Again.

Just as possible ATW tried to get additional stock in but DfT and/or TfW said no. It’s also not like there has been a surplus of stock in the last decade.

As an ex ATW Manager said to me "imagine what we could have done if the £ on the table for Keolis/Amey was available for us".

Maybe no surplus stock in UK but Stadler were offering their products with diesel power modules and CAF were building DMU's the whole time DfT was spinning its "No one makes DMU's anymore your have to wait till cascades from electrification" line.

 

[krus_aragon]

Just as possible ATW tried to get additional stock in but DfT and/or TfW said no. It’s also not like there has been a surplus of stock in the last decade.

If the price was right... It all boils down to money, as ever. Why should a commercial franchise operator spend more money than contracted if it won't see any net return?

As an ex ATW Manager said to me "imagine what we could have done if the £ on the table for Keolis/Amey was available for us".

I can sympathise with this feeling. (I'm sure many an ex-BR manager has had similar thoughts.)

Though, on second thoughts, Arriva were still at the discussion table until a year ago, weren't they? They had the opportunity to show how they'd spend it.

 

[Cardiff123]

If the price was right... It all boils down to money, as ever. Why should a commercial franchise operator spend more money than contracted if it won't see any net return?


I can sympathise with this feeling. (I'm sure many an ex-BR manager has had similar thoughts.)

Though, on second thoughts, Arriva were still at the discussion table until a year ago, weren't they? They had the opportunity to show how they'd spend it.

Gareth meant for the ATW 2003-2018 franchise, not the new TfW franchise

 

[krus_aragon]

Gareth meant for the ATW 2003-2018 franchise, not the new TfW franchise

Yes, I follow the idea of "if we'd had that money back then, things would be so much better now". But they did get an opportunity to show what they could do in the new franchise with that kind of money.

 

[krus_aragon]

And Arriva have reacted to yesterday's session, pointing out that they invested £30m over their 15 year franchise (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-46400658):

A spokesman for Arriva said the company had invested £30m over the fifteen years of its franchise until October.

"We have left the network in a much stronger and safer condition than when we found it," he said.

Claiming the company "acted in good faith" as the franchise came to an end, he said it invited the new franchise "to work with us ensure as smooth a transition as possible."

"This year we delivered our autumn preparedness plan in full and, in doing so, increased spending on train maintenance relative to previous years," the Arriva spokesman said.

"In this instance, and others, we have gone above and beyond our contractual obligations."

He added: "All spare parts and tools within our control were transferred to the new franchise holder with all parties having access to take stock reviews prior to transfer."

 

[daikilo]

It doesn't mean that the 769s will go onto Liverpool-Chester-Wrexhams. I think the intention is for them to go onto the Rhymney Valley Line to replace current 4 Car diagrams to enable 150s to be released to work the Liverpools. 4 Cars would be overkill on these services

That is what I understood also, but the transcript is very clear on what I wrote.

 

[Dai Corner]

That is what I understood also, but the transcript is very clear on what I wrote.

I haven't been keeping up with the 769 story, but aren't Northern getting some too? It would make sense to maintain them all at the same depot.