Avanti West Coast cancellations

[Peter0124]

So the 4tph are:

XX:07 to Liverpool
XX:10 to Central (using the old Chester path to include a Crewe call)
XX:20 to Piccadilly
XX:23 to Edinburgh/Blackpool via New Street (calling at all 3 of the intermediates between Euston and Coventry)

With extras at peak times.

Seems sensible, but as the north WCML hasn’t seen any reductions, I fear this will lead to more cancellations.

Alongside that, there is also a Birmingham Terminator roughly every four hours. Most likely to do with the Commonwealth Games.

Which website is this info from please?

Realtime Trains

 

[matt]

Alongside that, there is also a Birmingham Terminator roughly every four hours. Most likely to do with the Commonwealth Games.


Realtime Trains

The commonwealth games have finished

 

[172101]

Piccadilly gets a daily return voyager as well on 1H17/1A36, how nice for them.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I do too - there doesn't seem to have been any reduction to trains worked by Preston crews.

I would also remove the Edinburghs north of Wolverhampton. Edinburgh can be reached via Glasgow, and those wanting to go from Brum to Preston in the empty hour can take the Liverpool or the Crewe and change there onto the Glasgow.

 

[Bald Rick]

Seems sensible, but as the north WCML hasn’t seen any reductions, I fear this will lead to more cancellations.

I do too - there doesn't seem to have been any reduction to trains worked by Preston crews.

I would also remove the Edinburghs north of Wolverhampton. Edinburgh can be reached via Glasgow, and those wanting to go from Brum to Preston in the empty hour can take the Liverpool or the Crewe and change there onto the Glasgow.

See my response in post #1141

 

[Huntergreed]

Everything Avanti north of Preston is driven by Preston, Polmadie and Edinburgh drivers. With only 1.5 / hr rather than the base plan of 2/hr, there is already a 25% reduction in the base workload.

No, the timetable north of Preston isn’t changing. It was, and will remain:

1 x Glasgow per hour
1 x Edinburgh/Blackpool per hour

In each direction. No changes whatsoever. Since north of Preston seems particularly prone to cancellations, that inevitably will continue (the timetable really should have been 1tph, just the Glasgow, or less still if they can’t manage that).

I do too - there doesn't seem to have been any reduction to trains worked by Preston crews.

I would also remove the Edinburghs north of Wolverhampton. Edinburgh can be reached via Glasgow, and those wanting to go from Brum to Preston in the empty hour can take the Liverpool or the Crewe and change there onto the Glasgow.

Yes, that seems a sensible compromise. I would even go as far to say, just run Wolverhampton - Euston (no Blackpool) and send the other 3tph via the TV. If the service needs this level of reduction then it’s clear things are in dire straits.

 

[Bald Rick]

No, the timetable north of Preston isn’t changing. It was, and will remain:

1 x Glasgow per hour
1 x Edinburgh/Blackpool per hour

In each direction. No changes whatsoever. Since north of Preston seems particularly prone to cancellations, that inevitably will continue (the timetable really should have been 1tph, just the Glasgow, or less still if they can’t manage that).

it‘s not changing, but the base plan is the Glasgow fast, plus another hourly alternately to Edinburgh / Glasgow, plus about 4 Blackpool’s a day, plus a couple of peak extras to/ from Lancaster / Carlisle even Scotland etc. That’s what the crew establishment is sized to deliver. The workload from Sunday is significantly less than this base.

North of Preston is resourced from Polmadie, Preston and Edinburgh.

Preston to London is resourced from Preston, but also Euston, Wolverhampton and even Manchester, the last three of which are seeing further significant reductions in workload, as you know. Conceivably, spare crews from these three can cover some work south of Preston, freeing up Preston crews for work to the north.

Add in that the amount of leave being taken by Scottish crews is reducing from next week (school hols ending on Tuesday) means that availability is higher. Also, of the 90 Avanti services booked to operate through Preston that have commenced their journey since start of service yesterday, only 3 have been cancelled, and one of those was just Preston - Blackpool. Not ideal, obviously, but a 3.3% cancellation rate is a half decent position compared to the rest of Avanti, indeed most of the rest of the network (Yesterday’s national cancellation rate was 6.2%, today it is 3.8% so far).

 

[Morgsie]

On the 14.20 Manchester from Euston service. Previous 2 services cancelled so packed and first class declassified.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No cancellations via Birmingham today, as far as I can see from RTT.

 

[AJP62]

On 13.35 Manchester - Euston. Previous services running fine and this one reasonably busy but a few spare seats despite Coach E aircon not working.

 

[td97]

Piccadilly gets a daily return voyager as well on 1H17/1A36, how nice for them.

Quite a poor offering for Manchester
The first arrival from Euston at 0928 (0846 currently).
The first arrival at Euston is 0810 (currently 0728)
There is one am peak train for the residents of Crewe and Wilmslow to get to Manchester, and no pm peak service. Their choices are the pitiful TfW 2 carriage service, or the hourly Northern stopper (the via Airport service not really counting).

 

[modernrail]

I read in the FT today that Avanti will probably be getting paid under the new contract despite the shambles they have allowed to unfold on the UK’s most important mainline.

I was a contracts lawyer for years (nobody throw anything at me please, was just my job) and have drafted a lot of public private concession contracts on behalf of the public sector I have not drafted anything in the rail sector.

I am really confused. My understanding was that one of the reasons we are moving from franchises to concessions is to try and remove risk premiums that franchise bidders might add to their bid to cover risks they can’t actually manage, such as fall in revenue due to global pandemics! However, I would have thought it would be really important to ensure that risks they are very much able to manage are the concession holders risk. Staffing would seem to be the most basic of these bearing in mind they are provided with the tracks, the trains, the ticketing system etc etc. In fact, surely rostering, staff, customer service and their in-house ticketing -and buying and managing consumables is pretty much all they have to do?

If that is right, what is going on here? Has the DfT put together a rubbish contract or have they instructed the TOC to carry staffing ratios that, as we are hearing from former Virgin people, were not the case under Virgin and have wisely been avoided by other TOCs.

It is one or the other isn’t it? This is either a very bad contract which does not penalise the TOC for getting it wrong, and is coming back to bite almost ups signing, or it is a DfT cock up in forcing a poor staffing ratio that beat practice from other TOCs already shows is not going to work.

 

[Piper]

Avanti. The most unreliable train operator in British history - and one of the most expensive.

Getting back from London to Sandwell has proven such a hassle on numerous occasions recently. Delays and cancellations of the chart.

Virgin Trains were such a great company compared to this shambles.

 

[Peter0124]

I've also noticed that the 0910 and 1810 services from Euston to Glasgow are missing from Realtime Trains 15th Aug?

And a bit of an inconsistency that the Sunday daytime services have no Crewe stop whereas Mon-Fri does.

Also if the headcodes aren't going to be changed from what they are in RTT that day then there will be a headcode clash between some of the TPE services and the Avanti ones.

 

[Falcon1200]

So far, so good today at Glasgow Central; Not a single cancellation ! Yet, for some reason, 1M13 1240 to Euston was being advertised at Central as 'No First Class available', something I have not seen before. Perhaps this is just another step in Avanti's bid to devalue First Class to become utterly pointless ?

 

[jfollows]

So far, so good today at Glasgow Central; Not a single cancellation ! Yet, for some reason, 1M13 1240 to Euston was being advertised at Central as 'No First Class available', something I have not seen before. Perhaps this is just another step in Avanti's bid to devalue First Class to become utterly pointless ?

There have been reports of trains full and standing with First Class declassified so that might be the case here?

Quite a poor offering for Manchester
The first arrival from Euston at 0928 (0846 currently).
The first arrival at Euston is 0810 (currently 0728)
There is one am peak train for the residents of Crewe and Wilmslow to get to Manchester, and no pm peak service. Their choices are the pitiful TfW 2 carriage service, or the hourly Northern stopper (the via Airport service not really counting).

Yes, although the stopper's OK for Wilmslow really.
I agree about the TfW, I avoid them on the way into Manchester, I sometimes use them on the way back but that's usually because I just turn up and get the first train home, so I'll use the TfW if I can get a seat, otherwise I'll get the stopper behind it.
Mind you, the only morning peak commuter train is the one that didn't exist until more recently, the 07:10/07:25 which is the best timed one and one I've used occasionally ....

 

[Falcon1200]

There have been reports of trains full and standing with First Class declassified so that might be the case here?

There was certainly a large queue waiting for the train, but that has been standard for Avanti at Central this summer, and I have not seen that message before. The train was only a 9-car however, but I would have thought declassifying would be better left to the Train Manager, rather than effectively withdrawing First Class altogether ? Although I wonder whether any First Class service was provided on the train - Or was the lack of that perhaps the reason for the message ?

 

[Peter0124]

There was certainly a large queue waiting for the train, but that has been standard for Avanti at Central this summer, and I have not seen that message before. The train was only a 9-car however, but I would have thought declassifying would be better left to the Train Manager, rather than effectively withdrawing First Class altogether ? Although I wonder whether any First Class service was provided on the train - Or was the lack of that perhaps the reason for the message ?

Hopefully I would imagine those who had First Class tickets would have the price difference refunded?

 

[Bletchleyite]

So far, so good today at Glasgow Central; Not a single cancellation ! Yet, for some reason, 1M13 1240 to Euston was being advertised at Central as 'No First Class available', something I have not seen before. Perhaps this is just another step in Avanti's bid to devalue First Class to become utterly pointless ?

If they aren't providing the at seat service then declassifying it to Standard Premium is the right thing to do, then FC passengers can get a partial refund. Much better than claiming coach K is somehow premium in itself.

 

[AlanL]

Alongside that, there is also a Birmingham Terminator roughly every four hours. Most likely to do with the Commonwealth Games.


Realtime Trains

is the daily Shrewsbury -Euston return service still running in the emergency timetable?

 

[Hadders]

If such a sparse service is running then shouldn't everything be 11-cars? Realise that the 9-cars will need a run out every now and again but it would be unforgivable for 9-car services to be operating out of Euston at the moment with only 4 trains per hour.

 

[Peter0124]

If such a sparse service is running then shouldn't everything be 11-cars? Realise that the 9-cars will need a run out every now and again but it would be unforgivable for 9-car services to be operating out of Euston at the moment with only 4 trains per hour.

Agree! Surely the timetable can handle 31 trains. If the 9 car trains need to be used then it would make sense for them to work those 4 hourly Birmingham terminators, maybe one 9 car diagram that works them all day could do as the services look like they can be self contained and not interwork.

is the daily Shrewsbury -Euston return service still running in the emergency timetable?

Yup!

 

[AlanL]

Agree! Surely the timetable can handle 31 trains, maybe run one or two 9 car diagrams a day on the Birmingham terminators but thats about it!


Yup!

Thanks

 

[Clarence Yard]

I read in the FT today that Avanti will probably be getting paid under the new contract despite the shambles they have allowed to unfold on the UK’s most important mainline.

This is either a very bad contract which does not penalise the TOC for getting it wrong, and is coming back to bite almost ups signing, or it is a DfT cock up in forcing a poor staffing ratio that beat practice from other TOCs already shows is not going to work.

The franchise world changed in March 2020 and all TOCs became effectively Government controlled with the DfT paying for costs and receiving the revenue. TOC Owners now only get a base fee for managing the business on behalf of the DfT and a performance related fee, which is far more lucrative. That performance fee has a number of criteria, some not related to how well the service runs.

What is key here is that the DfT, since 2020, has imposed strict cost controls over the TOC, which has included controls over recruitment and training related costs.

So the level of cancellations now being experienced has a number of root causes but as the DfT assumed responsibility for the TOCs in March 2020 it took on the liability for any mistakes made before that date, including the awarding of franchises with insufficient numbers of staff.

You have to bear in mind that reducing the number of staff employed was a favoured tactic of the DfT in recent bidding processes so over optimisation or reliance on rest day working could easily be baked in. So when the staffing falls apart, the service falls apart - there is little resilience left in the establishment.

With the return of schools in Scotland, it will be interesting to see by how much the level of cancellations on the Scottish routes actually drops and at the same time whether they can reliably operate their reduced service on all routes.

 

[AndrewE]

Presumably because it is being legally checked.

There is a fine line between what I would call “messroom conversations” between individual staff and a properly organised campaign.

Social media will blur that distinction.

It is interesting that the Avanti timetables webpage https://www.avantiwestcoast.co.uk/travel-information/plan-your-journey/timetables now says

From August 14 until further notice, we will be introducing a reduced timetable on our services. This is due to the current industrial relations climate which has resulted in severe staff shortages in some grades through increased sickness levels, as well as the majority of drivers making themselves unavailable for overtime in a co-ordinated fashion, and at short notice.

which is a bit more acurate. I have been out and about on the WCML recently and there was no public criticism of the workforce's actions, and the on-train staff seem to be going overboard to be nice to passengers.
Also I noted that timetables are only offered for 9-12, 14 and 15-17 August, not even the whole of next week.
On the other hand, I am glad to see the Crewe stops back in thew Euston-Glasgows.

 

[Triumph]

If such a sparse service is running then shouldn't everything be 11-cars? Realise that the 9-cars will need a run out every now and again but it would be unforgivable for 9-car services to be operating out of Euston at the moment with only 4 trains per hour.

Not possible, The weekday service will need 40 sets (Normally 44) and there are only 35 sets of which 2 are at Widnes and at Least 3 will be on maintenance. So that leaves 10 short before you star

 

[modernrail]

The franchise world changed in March 2020 and all TOCs became effectively Government controlled with the DfT paying for costs and receiving the revenue. TOC Owners now only get a base fee for managing the business on behalf of the DfT and a performance related fee, which is far more lucrative. That performance fee has a number of criteria, some not related to how well the service runs.

What is key here is that the DfT, since 2020, has imposed strict cost controls over the TOC, which has included controls over recruitment and training related costs.

So the level of cancellations now being experienced has a number of root causes but as the DfT assumed responsibility for the TOCs in March 2020 it took on the liability for any mistakes made before that date, including the awarding of franchises with insufficient numbers of staff.

You have to bear in mind that reducing the number of staff employed was a favoured tactic of the DfT in recent bidding processes so over optimisation or reliance on rest day working could easily be baked in. So when the staffing falls apart, the service falls apart - there is little resilience left in the establishment.

With the return of schools in Scotland, it will be interesting to see by how much the level of cancellations on the Scottish routes actually drops and at the same time whether they can reliably operate their reduced service on all routes.

Thanks Clarence Yard. It really is starting to sound like the balance of responsibility lies with the DfT here if they are baking all this into the contracts.

Is this all down to one or two incompetent civil servants who thought they were being clever ‘reducing costs’ by forcing TOCs to lean on rest day working etc without realising the chaos they were about to cause?

Also, the DfT is publicly calling for more flexiblility from rail workers, which I take to mean contracting Sundays etc. At the same time they seem to be baking into contractual arrangements an over reliance on rest day working through the whole week. Is that not a complete contradiction?

It will be sort of interesting to see what happens when the schools go back but it is also damning what is happening at the moment. Summer happens every year. Fair enough there has been some impact from Covid but it sounds like the biggest culpability here is with the DfT.

 

[43066]

Also, the DfT is publicly calling for more flexiblility from rail workers, which I take to mean contracting Sundays etc. At the same time they seem to be baking into contractual arrangements an over reliance on rest day working through the whole week. Is that not a complete contradiction?

Thats exactly what appears to be happening. And yes it is a complete contradiction!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is this all down to one or two incompetent civil servants who thought they were being clever ‘reducing costs’ by forcing TOCs to lean on rest day working etc without realising the chaos they were about to cause?

The "incompetent civil servants" at DfT are very likely to be professional railway industry consultants who are ex-BR/TOC/NR employees.
Some of them are from the same source that staffs the OLR operation for DfT.
It's expected they will end up as part of GBR.
The DfT staff still have to dance to the Treasury's tune, however, where operational railway knowledge will be in short supply.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is interesting that the Avanti timetables webpage https://www.avantiwestcoast.co.uk/travel-information/plan-your-journey/timetables now says

which is a bit more acurate. I have been out and about on the WCML recently and there was no public criticism of the workforce's actions, and the on-train staff seem to be going overboard to be nice to passengers.
Also I noted that timetables are only offered for 9-12, 14 and 15-17 August, not even the whole of next week.
On the other hand, I am glad to see the Crewe stops back in thew Euston-Glasgows.

It isn't much better, it is still accusing staff of pulling sickies (and encouraging them to attend work when sick, which is unsafe) and rather ignoring that little viral elephant in the room which is still knocking around even if it's not killing people in the sorts of numbers it was.