northwichcat
Veteran Member
Around then they believed that no new DMUs would be needed within CP5 based on forecast needs, because the (about to be announced) electrification plans allowed for a national cascade of DMUs sufficient to maintain the necessary fleet size, but they did not say that none would ever be needed, there was a need shown for new build beyond the period.
It is the political decision to go against DfT advice and replace Northern's Pacers that accounts for most (if not all) of the DMU section of the CAF MU order.
Well the no new DMUs in CP5 was based on TPE and MML electrification being completed to the original schedule and it did partly depend whether actual passenger growth and the predicted level of growth matched. A new order of self powered trains in CP6 or later was specifically mentioned with the idea they would be ordered for regional routes but later cascaded down to rural lines which will never be electrified and also would have a poor business case for new rolling stock.
It was one civil servant who said replacement of the Northern Pacers didn't provide a good business case but even he admitted he hadn't taken in to account whether newer trains would attract more passengers. He also hadn't allowed for the cost of bringing up Pacers to post-2019 standards, so his argument was weak and it wasn't surprising Mr McLoughlin overruled him.