One additional Unit required - The additional Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury would probably need to be only a 2 Car 158. It would run on the wrong hour to attach to the Holyhead and would not convey passengers from the Coast (Pwllheli route) or passengers to Birmingham as there would be no connection at Machynlleth from the Coast and passengers for the Birmingham direction would catch the through trains. It would take the pressure off the current service with passengers for Shrewsbury itself (plenty, I suggest) or to connect for stations via Crewe, Wrexham or to South Wales. There is no need to extend it beyond Shrewsbury at all and cost a further unit of which 158s would be in short supply because of their being the only ERTMS fitted fleet.
I am afraid you are mistaken. Yes, the additionals between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth could be run with a 2-car 158 (which is what I envisage). However, several of your other points are incorrect:
- Aberystwyth is nearly 2hrs from Shrewsbury. 2hrs there and 2hrs back would mean one additional unit could run an additional service every 4hrs, but an hourly service requires an additional service every 2hrs. 2 additional units will be needed.
- The Birmingham - Holyhead currently runs in the other hour to the Birmingham - Aberystwyth/Pwllheli. To make the Aberystwyth service hourly requires additional Shrewsbury - Aberystwyth services in the other hour to the exist Birmingham - Aberystwyth/Pwllheli service. Therefore, the additional Shrewsbury - Aberystwyth services would be in the same hour as the Birmingham - Holyhead and consequentially could run through to/from Birmingham as a portion of the Birmingham - Holyhead service without any problem.
- Assuming the Holyhead - Birmingham is already 4-car between Birmingham and Shrewsbury and 2-car between Shrewsbury and Holyhead, extending the additional Aberystwyth services beyond Shrewsbury to Birmingham would not increase the number of additional units required. You need 2 additional units whether it is an additional Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury service or an additional Aberystwyth - Birmingham service. If the additional Aberystwyth services go to Crewe though I think that would require more than 2 extra units, which is why I support the Birmingham option rather than the Crewe option.
I must be honest and without trying to upset a regular poster but I am getting a bit tired of suggestions to use LHCS for anything additional. We all know they are ex trains apart for exceptional circumstances and no longer enter into Train Planning proposals.
Chiltern, Gerald, East Coast, RailJet? Not ex-trains at all. LHCS is not really something you want to be using on routes that don't need many coaches. Multiple units have their advantages, and these outway the advantages of LHCS in the majority of cases. However, answer me this: where will they get two additional 158s for a Cambrian hourly service?
I have already said where I would take them from, the Chester - Holyhead part of Birmingham - Holyhead. That way, the number of diagrams which have to be 158s due to ERTMS does not increase. But then you have to find two 175s to run the Chester - Holyhead leg. Where do you get those from? Which brings me to:
Charter companies manage to use LHCS no problems and they can provide some serious capacity compared to most units!!
I've bolded the key point. I know from experience that 175s do not provide sufficent capacity at times on the Manchester - south Wales services between Manchester and Swansea. Unfortunately, those Manchesters are run through to Carmarthen and Milford Haven, where the expense of additional capacity would rarely be needed. However, I suspect the Manchester - north Wales services are just as in need of additional capacity as Manchester - Swansea is (and the impression I've got from reports on this fourm etc. is that the Manchester - north Wales route does not have any 2-car 175s on it, unlike south Wales - Manchester).
Hence, my suggestion of how to find 2x class 158 for additional Aberystwyth services:
- Strengthen the two busiest 3-car 175 Manchester - north Wales diagrams to a 4/5-coach LHCS train
- Strengthen two Manchester - south Wales diagrams from 2-car 175 to 3-car 175, using the 3-car units displaced by the LHCS
- Truncate the Birmingham - Wrexham - Holyhead service to Birmingham - Wrexham - Chester, releasing the 2 158s for the Cambrian
- Introduce new Chester - Holyhead services to replace the truncated Birminghams, using the two 2-car 175s released by the 3-car 175s released by the LHCS
LHCS may be expensive, but boy do those two LHCS sets spread the benifits quite nicely:
- Strengthening of two diagrams on Manchester - south Wales services, probably ATW's busiest route
- Strengthening of two diagrams on Manchester - north Wales services, another busy route
- Doubling of frequency between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth
- Through trains from Pwllheli to Birmingham, combining with the Aberystwyth service at Machynlleth to give 4-car trains from Machynlleth to Birmingham, retained every two hours
When you look at it like that, the cost:benifit ratio can't be all that bad can it?
A third LHCS set on Manchester - north Wales workings could release another 3-car 175, which again could replace a 2-car somewhere with that 2-car unit used to extend the Chester - Holyhead workings through to Crewe (to reduce the changes needed to reach Birmingham and make up for the loss of through trains).
