Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[Bald Rick]

You have consistently taken patronisingly faux polite interventions to a new and extraordinary height! Where did you take your degree in it?

My politeness comes from my parents and is anything but false. Apologies if it seems that way.

My first degree was awarded by the University of Realism, wth a Masters in Fact Based Decision Making.

 

[Teflon Lettuce]

It varies, of course, depending on the type of crossing, how busy the line and road is (NR is responsible for the road surface on the crossing), and how often it gets whacked. For crossings that have a attendant, it is getting on for 5 times that.

hmmm.... 100k for an unmanned automatic crossing and 500k for a manned one... by my figures I think I'll apply to become a level crossing attendant... apparently the job pays about 130k pa

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Whilst recent new life has been infused into this thread, making for a typical internet chat-room environment where the pros and cons of the matter under discussion based upon how the former rail route now appears in 2018, until a definite political statement that actually confirms or denies the matter is made, then many words will all that will be be expounded upon this thread in the months/years/decades to come.

 

[Bald Rick]

hmmm.... 100k for an unmanned automatic crossing and 500k for a manned one... by my figures I think I'll apply to become a level crossing attendant... apparently the job pays about 130k pa

5 people per crossing (including the relief, who will earn more), plus pension, NI, training, uniforms, accommodation, IT, their share of supervision, maintenance and utilities cost for the gate box, it all adds up.

 

[squizzler]

The Welsh Government has ploughed ahead with duelling the A465 despite its poor BCR justifying the decision by saying the BCR method doesn't capture all the benefits it claims the new road will bring.

My politeness comes from my parents and is anything but false. Apologies if it seems that way.

My first degree was awarded by the University of Realism, wth a Masters in Fact Based Decision Making.

Whilst recent new life has been infused into this thread, making for a typical internet chat-room environment where the pros and cons of the matter under discussion based upon how the former rail route now appears in 2018, until a definite political statement that actually confirms or denies the matter is made, then many words will all that will be be expounded upon this thread in the months/years/decades to come.

No offence meant, but perhaps the same faculty also hands out degrees in the blindingly obvious!

 

[squizzler]

It is disappointing to note that the Fesibility Study is based on local DMU's running between Caermarthen and Aberystwyth. The potential for longer distance through service seems to have been ignored.

Neither can I find any discussion on this thread on the potential of direct London to Aberystwyth trains over the South Wales route. Presumably the reason there is not such a service via Shrewsbury because the WCML has too little capacity or appropriate stock for such a service, but would a modernised GWR route and the new fleet of 800/802 provide opportunity to experiment with such a service?Assuming the HS2 liberates WCML capacity before the proposed Caermarthen route is built and a fast London service is established over that route, there is still plenty of opportunity to provide direct service with other renowned University cities on its network such as Bristol or Exeter. Either way, I suspect any eventual train service will amount to more than a shuttle between Caermarthen and Aberystwyth.

If the intention of the report is to show that the line is unviable, the specification of only an all-shacks train service - less transformative for the massive student population of Aberystwyth than longer distance express trains might be - is likely to come back to haunt them, as such services are likely attract higher value journeys that push the benefits to costs over the break-even line. Whilst speculation of longer distance services is going to be harder than a local service captive on the line, their omission even in passing (para 2.14) might feel to some as an attempt to frame the debate as over a local branch line rather than a strategic link to an important University town.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It is disappointing to note that the Fesibility Study is based on local DMU's running between Caermarthen and Aberystwyth. The potential for longer distance through service seems to have been ignored.

Neither can I find any discussion on this thread on the potential of direct London to Aberystwyth trains over the South Wales route. Presumably the reason there is not such a service via Shrewsbury because the WCML has too little capacity or appropriate stock for such a service, but would a modernised GWR route and the new fleet of 800/802 provide opportunity to experiment with such a service?Assuming the HS2 liberates WCML capacity before the proposed Caermarthen route is built and a fast London service is established over that route, there is still plenty of opportunity to provide direct service with other renowned University cities on its network such as Bristol or Exeter. Either way, I suspect any eventual train service will amount to more than a shuttle between Caermarthen and Aberystwyth.

If the intention of the report is to show that the line is unviable, the specification of only an all-shacks train service - less transformative for the massive student population of Aberystwyth than longer distance express trains might be - is likely to come back to haunt them, as such services are likely attract higher value journeys that push the benefits to costs over the break-even line. Whilst speculation of longer distance services is going to be harder than a local service captive on the line, their omission even in passing (para 2.14) might feel to some as an attempt to frame the debate as over a local branch line rather than a strategic link to an important University town.

We've been through this before only South Wales would be any quicker from Aberystwyth via Carmarthen than via Shrewsbury.

and if your going to reopen internal Welsh links lets not prioritize the middle of nowhere because they speak Welsh and vote for Plaid. Its the mirror image of accusation Plaid make against Welsh Labour being a party only concerned with urban/urban fringe South Wales.

 

[8H]

I think the overarching issue here is to actually confront the future of transport as it is going to be by providing corridors that aren’t roads, nor planning that revolves solely around making servicing and access to homes and industry solely through rubber and internal combustion. There is certainly an argument to be made about which possible routes are most worthy to develop. However we have a price tag and a study for one of them now, and in this interesting report there is an “optimism bias” of 127 million quid! Maybe it could cost less. If we are going to future proof the movement of people and goods it is possible to learn from the past without going back to it.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If the intention of the report is to show that the line is unviable, the specification of only an all-shacks train service - less transformative for the massive student population of Aberystwyth than longer distance express trains might be - is likely to come back to haunt them, as such services are likely attract higher value journeys that push the benefits to costs over the break-even line. Whilst speculation of longer distance services is going to be harder than a local service captive on the line, their omission even in passing (para 2.14) might feel to some as an attempt to frame the debate as over a local branch line rather than a strategic link to an important University town.

In order of a UK ranking in terms of university post-graduate importance, where would Aberystwyth be placed?

 

[krus_aragon]

is disappointing to note that the Fesibility Study is based on local DMU's running between Caermarthen and Aberystwyth. The potential for longer distance through service seems to have been ignored.

I recall from my earlier reading that the report presumed that services would be extensions of existing services at Carmarthen where possible: the circuitous possibility of trains running Manchester to Aberystwyth via Newport and Swansea distinctly came to mind.

 

[krus_aragon]

In order of a UK ranking in terms of university post-graduate importance, where would Aberystwyth be placed?

A proper answer would require evaluation on the basis of a particular course or field, but I'd say in general that it's reputation is equal to that of Bangor, but below that of Cardiff, which enjoys being in the Russell Group club.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

A proper answer would require evaluation on the basis of a particular course or field, but I'd say in general that it's reputation is equal to that of Bangor, but below that of Cardiff, which enjoys being in the Russell Group club.

Slightly biased in being an ex graduate , however the 1872 University has recovered in status position (something like 67 in the National league table according to the Sunday Times) , and is very well positioned for overall quality of teaching. Hugely important in the local economy of course , or dare I say it regional economy.

There is an important flow obviously from here to the Cambrian main line , and the present direct links to International are excellent in providing one change journey to both London Euston and onto Cross Country here and at New Street. A good source of long distance travel.

In terms of London direct services - there were SO services to Euston in the late 1980's and beyond , and for a while on Sundays with a half WC set being detached and re-attached at Wolverhampton. Quite innovative.

I arranged a class 40 hauled special (with Student Union support) direct to London in December 1978 , we had to reduce the planned train from 12 to 6 (MK's) , and just about broke even. Not repeated. Good fun though.

 

[krus_aragon]

Slightly biased in being an ex graduate , however the 1872 University has recovered in status position (something like 67 in the National league table according to the Sunday Times)

Likewise I have a bias in the other direction, but that ranking currently puts it within 3 places of Bangor, ~25 behind Swansea, and ~30 behind Cardiff, similar to what I'd suggested above.

There may be an interesting comparison to make of ranking vs provision of railway services. (Does Lampeter/UW Trinity St Davids have a relatively low ranking because of its lack of railway connectivity, or does it have no railway because the university isn't important enough? )

 

[Mordac]

Likewise I have a bias in the other direction, but that ranking currently puts it within 3 places of Bangor, ~25 behind Swansea, and ~30 behind Cardiff, similar to what I'd suggested above.

There may be an interesting comparison to make of ranking vs provision of railway services. (Does Lampeter/UW Trinity St Davids have a relatively low ranking because of its lack of railway connectivity, or does it have no railway because the university isn't important enough? )

St. Andrews would make a very interesting outlier there I wager! Best University not connected to rail?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Likewise I have a bias in the other direction, but that ranking currently puts it within 3 places of Bangor, ~25 behind Swansea, and ~30 behind Cardiff, similar to what I'd suggested above.

There may be an interesting comparison to make of ranking vs provision of railway services. (Does Lampeter/UW Trinity St Davids have a relatively low ranking because of its lack of railway connectivity, or does it have no railway because the university isn't important enough? )

Slightly off topic - but the Welsh University rankings are very good indeed. Embedded culture I assume - the old story about "every house a B.A and every other one a PhD" - not exactly typical , but slightly true.

Lampeter - well the student population was about 600 when it was independant as St David UC , and the location and so on , must / was have been a factor in attractivity....

 

[ChiefPlanner]

St. Andrews would make a very interesting outlier there I wager! Best University not connected to rail?

Now that really as a stupid closure (covered admirably in an article in "Backtrack" some years go - however Scotland seems quite generous in re-opening schemes - maybe you can have a word with Ms Sturgeon)

 

[Mordac]

Now that really as a stupid closure (covered admirably in an article in "Backtrack" some years go - however Scotland seems quite generous in re-opening schemes - maybe you can have a word with Ms Sturgeon)

Nah, I'm an Edinburgh alum. Keep them yahs safely cooped up in North Fife, thanks!

 

[Phil from Mon]

I recall from my earlier reading that the report presumed that services would be extensions of existing services at Carmarthen where possible: the circuitous possibility of trains running Manchester to Aberystwyth via Newport and Swansea distinctly came to mind.

Or even Manchester to Milford via Lampeter........

 

[gallafent]

In order of a UK ranking in terms of university post-graduate importance, where would Aberystwyth be placed?

It's 47th in the UK for “research” (350-400th in the world on overall ranking) according to https://www.timeshighereducation.co...by/scores_research/sort_order/asc/cols/scores , between Aston and Kent.

 

[snowball]

Slightly biased in being an ex graduate

Have they stripped you of your degree?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Have they stripped you of your degree?

Not at all , or my second degree from elsewhere !

 

[johnnychips]

Bit OT but a graduand of Lampeter is Ian Marchant, who wrote a great railway book ‘Parallel Lines’. Not sure he ever graduated but a super read.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Bit OT but a graduand of Lampeter is Ian Marchant, who wrote a great railway book ‘Parallel Lines’. Not sure he ever graduated but a super read.

Not a degree Lampeter , but I think Lancaster.

Just published a superb book "A Hero for High Times" -about an iconic guy who was there in the 1960's and beyond , now lives near the remains of the Presteign line in a converted bus. (Bob Rowberry) i great read and there are some good recollections on Lampeter / Mid Wales in his days there.

More than a soft spot for railways (yes - OT alert)

 

[HowardGWR]

Does this thread not belong in the speculation section? I thought I would contribute this thought, just to help its aim of being the longest running fantasy thread on UK Rail. By the way, I liked the suggestion of Paul S of this parish, many moons ago, of rejoining the Carmarthen LMS line to Llandeilo, as that could help the West Wales tourist industry better, and give the residents another escape route to England!

Edit: corrected speling of Llandeilo, thanks Chief_Planner!

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Does this thread not belong in the speculation section? I thought I would contribute this thought, just to help its aim of being the longest running fantasy thread on UK Rail. By the way, I liked the suggestion of Paul S of this parish, many moons ago, of rejoining the Carmarthen LMS line to Llandilo, as that could help the West Wales tourist industry better, and give the residents another escape route to England!

Hopefully , in the realms of "fantasy" - yes I like that option for Carmarthen - Llandeilo , though rather subject - more so than Aber to Carmarthen for 30 year flooding epics.

(finally - as a youthful student we used to frequent Aber SB - all the train registers dating back over 25 years were there , and we were pointed out the events of the fateful evening when the line was washed out at Llanilar and closed UFN as a result) , one would hope they were saved , but I doubt it.

 

[Bevan Price]

It is disappointing to note that the Fesibility Study is based on local DMU's running between Caermarthen and Aberystwyth. The potential for longer distance through service seems to have been ignored.

If the intention of the report is to show that the line is unviable, the specification of only an all-shacks train service - less transformative for the massive student population of Aberystwyth than longer distance express trains might be - is likely to come back to haunt them, as such services are likely attract higher value journeys that push the benefits to costs over the break-even line. Whilst speculation of longer distance services is going to be harder than a local service captive on the line, their omission even in passing (para 2.14) might feel to some as an attempt to frame the debate as over a local branch line rather than a strategic link to an important University town.

Even massive student populations will do little to justify reopening a railway. Most of them will not be commuting long distances daily to/from university. The most that can be expected are journeys at the start and end of university terms by a (probably small) proportion of the student population, plus maybe an occasional weekend trip home if any have families in South West Wales. Any passenger services would possibly be operated by the 2040s equivalent of a single Class 153, with room to spare for much of the year - and possible overcrowding on about 6 days each year.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Even massive student populations will do little to justify reopening a railway. Most of them will not be commuting long distances daily to/from university. The most that can be expected are journeys at the start and end of university terms by a (probably small) proportion of the student population, plus maybe an occasional weekend trip home if any have families in South West Wales. Any passenger services would possibly be operated by the 2040s equivalent of a single Class 153, with room to spare for much of the year - and possible overcrowding on about 6 days each year.

Which is what I was alluding to - start / end of terms , bit in between - plenty of enjoyable things to do in Aber , apart from watching the memorable sunsets....

Used to find the 2 a day , Crosville - S52 a saviour - Aber to Ammanford via Aberaeron and Lampter a joy (and stupidly cheap) , connected without fail into a 251 Western Welsh semi/fast to Cardiff via Neath. Integrated connectivity in today's babble speak.

 

[Envoy]

I wonder how they get the University rankings? The only way anyone could compare the teaching quality would be to go around them all.

 

[PeterC]

Even massive student populations will do little to justify reopening a railway. Most of them will not be commuting long distances daily to/from university. The most that can be expected are journeys at the start and end of university terms by a (probably small) proportion of the student population, plus maybe an occasional weekend trip home if any have families in South West Wales. Any passenger services would possibly be operated by the 2040s equivalent of a single Class 153, with room to spare for much of the year - and possible overcrowding on about 6 days each year.

Without the ability to send lugguage in advance I suspect that most are now used "dad's taxi" for the start and end of term. The only reason that my younger daughter went home by train when she left uni was that her lugguage had already overloaded the car.

 

[Bald Rick]

Without the ability to send lugguage in advance I suspect that most are now used "dad's taxi" for the start and end of term. The only reason that my younger daughter went home by train when she left uni was that her lugguage had already overloaded the car.

I have a cousin who went to uni in Aberystwyth, and she usually went by train at start and end of each term. I bumped into her on the train as she returned home for Easter one Saturday lunchtime; the train was full but not overloaded, even with Wolves playing at home. Anecdote is, of course, the worst form of evidence.