Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[Bevan Price]

As someone who made a few trips between Aberystwyth & Carmarthen before the line closed, I would suggest that it is crazy to suggest reopening a line when the typical number of passengers on the trains would have struggled to half fill a single 153. I am sure that there are other lines in Wales that have vastly better reasons to justify reopening.

 

[The Ham]

As someone who made a few trips between Aberystwyth & Carmarthen before the line closed, I would suggest that it is crazy to suggest reopening a line when the typical number of passengers on the trains would have struggled to half fill a single 153. I am sure that there are other lines in Wales that have vastly better reasons to justify reopening.

Whilst I agree with you that there's likely to fairly low passenger numbers you do however need to consider what has happened to passenger numbers since Beeching.

Whilst there was a drop due to the closures since the low point rail growth has been fairly strong and there's now about 75% more passengers than there was before the closures.

Even based on that something with 16 passengers would likely now see 28.

However that doesn't take into account that the numbers of miles of track had also fallen and so there's the potential for more growth. Especially given that many more people are much more environmentally conscious than they were even 3 years ago.

 

[Bald Rick]

Whilst I agree with you that there's likely to fairly low passenger numbers you do however need to consider what has happened to passenger numbers since Beeching.

Whilst there was a drop due to the closures since the low point rail growth has been fairly strong and there's now about 75% more passengers than there was before the closures.

Even based on that something with 16 passengers would likely now see 28.

However that doesn't take into account that the numbers of miles of track had also fallen and so there's the potential for more growth. Especially given that many more people are much more environmentally conscious than they were even 3 years ago.

It’s reslly not that simple.

The increase in GB rail passengers over that time has been down to many, many factors. Not least the general increase in population. But mainly the significantly increased level of economic activity, the change of activity from manufacturing to services, and the centralisation of that activity in larger cities through the agglomeration effect. Add in increased congestion on the roads and a more transient population that has less desire to own a car.

Whilst I am no expert on the economy of mid west Wales, I’m reasonably sure that the economy is much as it was 60 years ago in terms of segmentation and scale, there’s no cities (or even towns) of any scale on the route, and road congestion is hardly an issue.

 

[talerddig]

Agreed, although I think you could argue for Bangor > Caernarfon as a standalone project.

One of the many problems with the idea as I see it is the Afonwen dog-leg. If the intention is to provide a reasonably fast link between the north west and the south of Wales a better route between Caernarfon and Porthmadog would be needed. We've also seen recently on the north Wales main line how the conflict between local services and overall long distance journey times can play out and the Traws scheme seems to invite a similar conundrum.

I can understand the political case in favour of improved links between the north and south of Wales as an excercise in 'nation building'. Plenty of countries have placed a political imperative ahead of just meeting passenger demand and there's no reason Wales shouldn't do the same, if we so choose. I'm just not sure that a west coast rail link would do what its supporters think it would.

Well, there's never any certainty in anything here. You've got to unpick centuries of commerce moving east (north to Liverpool/Manchester, south towards Bristol/London), but if the infrastructure ain't there, it will never even begin to happen. Re: the dog-leg, maybe they could convert to a Morfa Mawddach style triangular junction, like I think they would need to at Dyfi Junction?

All in all more positive talking about a) re-opening Welsh railways and b) not just around Cardiff.

Have you seen this? http://trawslinkcymru.org.uk/traws-...les-to-press-for-bangor-porthmadog-reopening/

 

[talerddig]

Acceleration isn’t much use if you can’t do more than 60mph.

This line has zero chance of happening.

The Cambrian route has seen a reduction in running time by more modern practices and stock, so I disagree. The Carmarthen route was dogged by having 20 plus stations to serve in the past and slower, heavier stock. I disagree with zero chance, but it needs the political will and money - and its debateable that there will be a lot of that around in the near future. However, if Wales wants to develop as a commercial entity and not as a feeder point to the border then they have to link north and south with a better transport infrastructure

 

[Bald Rick]

The Cambrian route has seen a reduction in running time by more modern practices and stock, so I disagree. The Carmarthen route was dogged by having 20 plus stations to serve in the past and slower, heavier stock. I disagree with zero chance, but it needs the political will and money - and its debateable that there will be a lot of that around in the near future. However, if Wales wants to develop as a commercial entity and not as a feeder point to the border then they have to link north and south with a better transport infrastructure

I don’t disagree with the last point, however there would be far better ways of achieving that output than this project.

 

[The Ham]

It’s reslly not that simple.

The increase in GB rail passengers over that time has been down to many, many factors. Not least the general increase in population. But mainly the significantly increased level of economic activity, the change of activity from manufacturing to services, and the centralisation of that activity in larger cities through the agglomeration effect. Add in increased congestion on the roads and a more transient population that has less desire to own a car.

Whilst I am no expert on the economy of mid west Wales, I’m reasonably sure that the economy is much as it was 60 years ago in terms of segmentation and scale, there’s no cities (or even towns) of any scale on the route, and road congestion is hardly an issue.

I know that what I said was fairly simple, however it is also true that just because there were few passengers in the past it doesn't mean that there will also be only a few passengers if the line were to reopen.

I'd suggest that tourism has probably increased over time in West Wales, especially with the internet making it much easier to find and book places to stay and go. By opening it up to more people (by reopening the railway line) it could further develop this part of the economy.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

I suppose the closest analogy to this proposal is Ireland's Western Rail Corridor, a long abandoned set of lines that have been partially re-opened. The latest figures I can find show circa 250,000 passengers per annum between Limerick and Ennis with lower loadings north of Ennis. The numbers aren't huge but nor are they insignificant for a largely rural economy. It's all a matter of political will, I guess.

 

[yorkie]

Can we stick to Aberystwyth to Carmarthen in this thread please?

A new thread should be created for any other suggested reopenings.

I know that what I said was fairly simple, however it is also true that just because there were few passengers in the past it doesn't mean that there will also be only a few passengers if the line were to reopen....

I did Carmarthen to Aberystwyth this Summer; despite the bus being free (it was the weekend) the bus was never full. Most of the passengers who used the bus appeared to be travelling to/from intermediate places that were not along the railway line.

 

[talerddig]

I suppose the closest analogy to this proposal is Ireland's Western Rail Corridor, a long abandoned set of lines that have been partially re-opened. The latest figures I can find show circa 250,000 passengers per annum between Limerick and Ennis with lower loadings north of Ennis. The numbers aren't huge but nor are they insignificant for a largely rural economy. It's all a matter of political will, I guess.

Add the Waverley line to that and how Hawick has depopulated, whereas the towns on the reopened line have thrived

 

[talerddig]

I don’t disagree with the last point, however there would be far better ways of achieving that output than this project.

Not with the trackbed mainly still in place. I understand where you are coming from, but HS2 withstanding, there seems no desire on any projects in the UK to do anything but utilise what has already been

 

[Bald Rick]

Not with the trackbed mainly still in place. I understand where you are coming from, but HS2 withstanding, there seems no desire on any projects in the UK to do anything but utilise what has already been

You could get much better improved connections between north and South Wales for a fraction of the cost by improving the existing via Hereford.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Can we stick to Aberystwyth to Carmarthen in this thread please? A new thread should be created for any other suggested reopenings.

With the matter of the Bangor to Caernarfon line, I have now opened a new thread where discussions on that line can take place.

 

[talerddig]

You could get much better improved connections between north and South Wales for a fraction of the cost by improving the existing via Hereford.

which is in England and is one hell of a slingshot if you are trying to get to Bangor or Holyhead. If you read through the thread you'll see that a few people have pointed out that the political rationale is more than just to link two small towns

 

[8H]

I suppose the closest analogy to this proposal is Ireland's Western Rail Corridor, a long abandoned set of lines that have been partially re-opened. The latest figures I can find show circa 250,000 passengers per annum between Limerick and Ennis with lower loadings north of Ennis. The numbers aren't huge but nor are they insignificant for a largely rural economy. It's all a matter of political will, I guess.

it’s good to see this discussion calmly considering the future of public transport in rural areas and the geopolitical context in relation to Wales, both of which are serious live issues within the air pollution and climate change debate. The absence of sighing and eye rolling recently have been a real treat

 

[Bald Rick]

which is in England and is one hell of a slingshot if you are trying to get to Bangor or Holyhead. If you read through the thread you'll see that a few people have pointed out that the political rationale is more than just to link two small towns

I know, and I have.

Perhaps if the output of the project is to demonstrate how Welsh politicians could waste as much money as possible to the benefit of as few of their constituents as possible, then it might have a chance.

 

[8H]

I know, and I have.

Perhaps if the output of the project is to demonstrate how Welsh politicians could waste as much money as possible to the benefit of as few of their constituents as possible, then it might have a chance.

see the brief sarcasm holiday is over now

 

[talerddig]

As someone who made a few trips between Aberystwyth & Carmarthen before the line closed, I would suggest that it is crazy to suggest reopening a line when the typical number of passengers on the trains would have struggled to half fill a single 153. I am sure that there are other lines in Wales that have vastly better reasons to justify reopening.

I would agree if you based your model on 1965. However, I'm sure all the money will get thrown at Cardiff as it always does so don't worry about it

 

[talerddig]

I know, and I have.

Perhaps if the output of the project is to demonstrate how Welsh politicians could waste as much money as possible to the benefit of as few of their constituents as possible, then it might have a chance.

Think you put your blind eye to the telescope, Horatio

 

[Tobbes]

Merry Christmas to all.

I struggle somewhat with what the point of Carmarthen - Aber is: is it:

- a local connection to meet local demand (if so, is an improved bus service a cheaper and more effective option?)

- a strategic Welsh N-S route in Wales (in which case if the question is Holyhead/Bangor - Cardiff, why not reopen the Mid-Wales via Builth Wells to Moat Lane and then go to Aberystwyth? - it would be much more useful even if few passengers used it throughout)

- a new N/S route from say Cardiff-Brecon-Mid Wales to Newtown-Welshpool-Corwen-Colwyn Bay on largely new alignments?

The last of these would presumably generate the best end to end times, but it wouls be fantastically expensive to build -- for what benefit? If the Senedd wants to build any of these schemes, then they should do so, and be fully supported - as long as they then explain why this is preferable to other transport projects in Wales (which are likely to benefit far more people.)

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

Tobbes make some very interesting points and I find this a fascinating conversation since the questions around improving north-south communication within Wales are essentially political and economic rather than driven by current traffic flows or demand.

The first thing to bear in mind is that all nations and borders are artificicial constructs. That's true of France, Wales, the UK, the US or whoever. Essentially a nation are a group of people who think they are a nation.

Those of us who regard Wales as a nation, which is the vast majority of us, regard it as slightly ridiculous that we have to leave our own country to travel from the north to the south or vice versa. It is reasonable to assume as well, I think, that had Wales been independent or had some form of devolved Government in the 19th and early 20th century a proper north-south rail link would exist.

We weren't and it doesn't so the question becomes what do we do about it in the 21st century?

Logic points to an eastern route since 90% of the Welsh population live within 50 miles of the English border but such a route would essentially duplicate the Marcher route a few miles further east and would do nothing much to allieviate the 'slingshot' required to travel between SW and NW Wales.

Hence the attraction of a Western route. As en excercise in 'nation building' it's an understandable concept but it may have come a hundred and fifty years too late.

 

[30907]

It is reasonable to assume as well, I think, that had Wales been independent or had some form of devolved Government in the 19th and early 20th century a proper north-south rail link would exist.

You have to assume both that there would be a significantly greater demand to and from the capital (Cardiff I presume?) and that investors would be willing to build a main line railway through difficult and sparsely populated territory. Or a very different attitude to government subsidy!

 

[Llanigraham]

Tobbes make some very interesting points and I find this a fascinating conversation since the questions around improving north-south communication within Wales are essentially political and economic rather than driven by current traffic flows or demand.

The first thing to bear in mind is that all nations and borders are artificicial constructs. That's true of France, Wales, the UK, the US or whoever. Essentially a nation are a group of people who think they are a nation.

Those of us who regard Wales as a nation, which is the vast majority of us, regard it as slightly ridiculous that we have to leave our own country to travel from the north to the south or vice versa. It is reasonable to assume as well, I think, that had Wales been independent or had some form of devolved Government in the 19th and early 20th century a proper north-south rail link would exist.

We weren't and it doesn't so the question becomes what do we do about it in the 21st century?

Logic points to an eastern route since 90% of the Welsh population live within 50 miles of the English border but such a route would essentially duplicate the Marcher route a few miles further east and would do nothing much to allieviate the 'slingshot' required to travel between SW and NW Wales.

Hence the attraction of a Western route. As en excercise in 'nation building' it's an understandable concept but it may have come a hundred and fifty years too late.

And yet I know plenty of members of Plaid who think this proposal is a huge waste of money and see no problem in passing through England to get to Cardiff.

 

[Tobbes]

Tobbes make some very interesting points and I find this a fascinating conversation since the questions around improving north-south communication within Wales are essentially political and economic rather than driven by current traffic flows or demand.

@Tomos y Tanc indeed, a very interesting conversation that I'm grateful for. But surely this doesn't mean that Welsh politicians are going to prioritise this on nationalist grounds over other projects in Wales which have a much greater impact on the people of Wales - esp in Cardiff and the Valleys?

Those of us who regard Wales as a nation, which is the vast majority of us, regard it as slightly ridiculous that we have to leave our own country to travel from the north to the south or vice versa. It is reasonable to assume as well, I think, that had Wales been independent or had some form of devolved Government in the 19th and early 20th century a proper north-south rail link would exist.

We weren't and it doesn't so the question becomes what do we do about it in the 21st century?

Logic points to an eastern route since 90% of the Welsh population live within 50 miles of the English border but such a route would essentially duplicate the Marcher route a few miles further east and would do nothing much to allieviate the 'slingshot' required to travel between SW and NW Wales.

Hence the attraction of a Western route. As en excercise in 'nation building' it's an understandable concept but it may have come a hundred and fifty years too late.

As ever, Wales' rivers and valleys run in almost precisely the wrong direction to make SE/NW connections! Even as a nation-building exercise, I'd probably still go via Builth Wells (and not just for the Eisteddfod, though this wouldn't hurt), simply because as a more direct Cardiff to Bangor route, the end-to-end time would be much better than via Carmathen: there's not a lot of point in building a new line for national purposes that remains slower than Y Gerald. Better, the Cardiff/Brecon/Builth route would transform connectivity to Wales' economic hub for mid-Wales, something that the Carmathen route wouldn't provide.

Looking at railmaponline to see where railways were ever laid, I'd suggest going north to Welshpool on a modernised Mid-Wales, and then turn NW up the Tanant Valley, tunnel from the head of the Tanant Valley to Bala, and then reinstate the Bala-Traws-Blaenau Ffestiniog to link up with the Conway Valley line; if being done for purely nationalist purposes, this would also pass Capel Celyn, of course....

But I struggle to see how such a route - presumably a combination of single track and dynamic loops, like BordersRail (with all new structures built for doubling, please...) would ever be good value compared with upgrading the Marches line, even if this is in England. Ultimately, it doesn't matter because if a line is to be built, it will be Carmathen-Aber and Porthmadog to Bangor via Caernarvon* becuase even at £2bn, it would probably be cheaper than an easterly route, even if it is less useful.

*Though if so, please cut the corner and follow the A487 from Porthmadog to Bryncir via Dolbenmaen, rather than pointlessly running out to Afon Wen and then back again.

 

[krus_aragon]

It is reasonable to assume as well, I think, that had Wales been independent or had some form of devolved Government in the 19th and early 20th century a proper north-south rail link would exist.

There was an attempt to form a conglomerate of independent Welsh railways in the 1860s (iirc) that would have ended up doing that, but it fell by the wayside. I'm afraid my Boxing-day brain can't recall the details, and my bookself is out of arm's reach for a few days, but I'll try to remember to dig for it (and probably start a new thread) nearer the New Year.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

You have to assume both that there would be a significantly greater demand to and from the capital (Cardiff I presume?) and that investors would be willing to build a main line railway through difficult and sparsely populated territory. Or a very different attitude to government subsidy!

Well, we're in the territory of very wild speculation here but Wales in the 19th century was an extractive economy, largely producing raw materials for processing and use elsewhere. That's why the important exchange in Cardiff was the Coal Exchange not a stock exchange and why, with a few exceptions like Brown Lennox in Pontypridd, Wales didn't really have a heavy engineering or manufacturing base until the mid 20th century.

That's part, not all, of the reason the main transport routes were east-west rather than north-south. Of course, sparse population and difficult terrain counted as well.

This isn't a political point, merely a statement of the obvious. The economy of Wales developed as part of a wider England & Wales / UK / British Empire economic system. An independent or semi-independent country with its own government, banks, exchanges etc would have developed differently. Not necessarily better, but differently.

In some ways the way things worked out were to the benefit of those, who like me, treasure the Welsh language and culture. The reason Welsh is so much stronger as a language that Scottish or Irish Gaelic is that Welsh people could seek new opportunities within Wales without the mass emigration that bedeviled the Scottish highlands and rural Ireland.

I still think though that a government in Cardiff, Aberystwyth or where ever would have regarded a north-south rail link as an essential national priority.

 

[Rhydgaled]

The real problem would be at Caernarfon, where you would have to demolish Morrison's supermarket, do away with the road that runs through the former railway tunnel and demolish the Welsh Highland Railway's new station.

Couldn't you reroute it slightly so that it takes a slice off the Morrisons car park rather than demolishing the building itself? As for the Welsh Highland Railway, the obvious solution is to mix the guage (the WHR is already integrated with the Cambrian's ETCS at the Porthmadog end so a ready-made signalling solution presumably exists) although whether standard guage stock would foul their new station in Caernarfon I'm not sure.

I think the two should be the same project and I thought The Traws Link was promoting both. Sorry, but the southern boys have been better at PR I think/

Yes, TrawsLinkCymru has always had the full Bangor-Carmarthen/Swansea/Cardiff route in mind (though without proposing a Dyfi solution as far as I'm aware) but for some reason chose the southern section as phase 1.

Again, I disagree. not fast as say a Pendolino, but. the Aber-Carmarthen line would be serviced by much lighter trains than pre Beeching which allows better acceleration and point handling - Cambrian trains proved that. Also, the plan was to have only stations at four of the original stops - Llanilar, Tregaron, Lampeter, Llanybydder.

Even so I believe TrawsLinkCymru's website used to say the expected journey time for Carmarthen-Aberystwyth was 1hr 30min. Given that driving, even station-to-station (without the walk between the station and their home/destination that a rail passenger would have to factor in) can be done in under 1hr 20min (according to Google and the AA route planner) all that would acheive is abstration from the bus service and hence a higher subsidy requirement for the buses. I don't think the Welsh Government should spend a penny more on an Aberystwyth-Carmarthen rail link unless it is to bring the journey time down to under 70 minutes.

Traws Link Cymru promotes both routes and tbh, the rationale for both does not stand up if they aren't both done

I disagree; without something to allow through trains between Aberystwyth and Barmouth (without a reversal east of Dovey Junction) they don't stand up as a combined scheme anyway. There are really three seperate projects here:

• Bangor-Caernarfon (with trains running through from Chester/Liverpool/Manchester)
• Caernarfon-Porthmadog (with trains running through to Machynlleth/Newtown/Birmingham, which could be done as a portion of the current Pwllheli services)
  • this only makes any sense if combined with the above, or if the above has already been done
    
  • to really maximise the benifits of the new link you would need to run the Bangor service 'fast' down the Cambrian coast ('fast' here means cutting out stops) in the other hour to the Pwllheli services, which would need a passing loop on the coast line side at / near Dovey Junction.
• Aberystwyth-Carmarthen (with trains running through to Cardiff)

However that doesn't take into account that the numbers of miles of track had also fallen and so there's the potential for more growth. Especially given that many more people are much more environmentally conscious than they were even 3 years ago.

If Carmarthen-Aberystwyth was reopened in 2045, would it be something a well-informed environmentally conscious passenger would/should use? If it existed today, the environmentally conscious would of course be correct to promote it's use over car trips. However, in 2045 the sale of new petrol and diesel cars will have been banned five years before. Also, if the Welsh Government meet their rather ambious target, all buses and taxis will be zero emmision by 2030. Meanwhile there is no policy to remove diesel trains from the network, with England having a 'no diesel-only' policy which allows diesel bi-modes and the Wales & Borders franchise ordering a large diesel-only fleet that is likely to last into the 2050s. Given that scenario, should environmental groups still be promoting the Welsh rail network in the future?

Merry Christmas to all.

I struggle somewhat with what the point of Carmarthen - Aber is: is it:

- a local connection to meet local demand (if so, is an improved bus service a cheaper and more effective option?

Personally, I see it as a local connection but to meet not just local demand but also for longer-distance demand such as Aberystwyth to Cardiff (and anywhere south of London, possibly including London itself; depending on connections and where in London you are headed it could be faster than the current route from Aberystwyth to Euston).

- a strategic Welsh N-S route in Wales (in which case if the question is Holyhead/Bangor - Cardiff, why not reopen the Mid-Wales via Builth Wells to Moat Lane and then go to Aberystwyth? - it would be much more useful even if few passengers used it throughout)

I don't think a strategic Welsh N-S route in Wales for through services is acheivable. The best bet would be the Carmarthen route and then a new south-to-west chord (either extremely tight or involving a new bridge) at Dovey Junction. I can't see the Builth Wells route working without forcing passengers to change at Brecon, with the line south thereof being the electrified Metro. Even if you electrified the whole route, passengers wouldn't want to do Cardiff-Bangor on a Metro train and a long-distance train south of Merthyr would either be stuck behind stoppers all the time or wreck the Metro timetable due to long dwell times at all the Metro stops. You'd need a new route into the centre of Cardiff and I can't see anyone finding one.

if so, please cut the corner and follow the A487 from Porthmadog to Bryncir via Dolbenmaen, rather than pointlessly running out to Afon Wen and then back again.

Agreed about avoiding the Afon Wen detour.

 

[Tobbes]

Well, we're in the territory of very wild speculation here but Wales in the 19th century was an extractive economy, largely producing raw materials for processing and use elsewhere. That's why the important exchange in Cardiff was the Coal Exchange not a stock exchange and why, with a few exceptions like Brown Lennox in Pontypridd, Wales didn't really have a heavy engineering or manufacturing base until the mid 20th century.

[snip]

This isn't a political point, merely a statement of the obvious. The economy of Wales developed as part of a wider England & Wales / UK / British Empire economic system. An independent or semi-independent country with its own government, banks, exchanges etc would have developed differently. Not necessarily better, but differently.

Even if Wales had been independent in 1800, I suspect the development would have been pretty similar, @Tomos y Tanc : the resources and the geography would have been the same, and the economic logic similarly remorseless.

But on the narrow question of Carmarthen - Aber, I did a bit of Boxing Day digging and came up with this comparison:

Gerald:
Bangor - Cardiff, 204m 42ch (via Railmiles); 3h 56m, average speed 52.0 mph

Wales West Coast Route (WWCR)
Cardiff - Carmathen, 74m 55ch (Railmiles); fastest I could see was 1h 40m; av sp 44.8 mph
Carmathen - Aber, 54m 54ch (Mott McD report); 1h 20m*; av speed 42.5 mph
Aber - Dovey Junction - Penychain, 67m 03ch (Railmiles); 2h 25m; av speed 27.7 mph
Afon Wen - Bangor, 27m 60ch, (1949 timetable, Disused Stations); fastest I could see in 1949 was 1h 12m; av speed 23.1 mph

Cardiff - Bangor (via Carmathen) 226m 12ch, 6h 37m, av speed 34.2 mph

So for the WWCR to match the existing Gerald timings, it would need to average 57.5 mph. Now, presumably "Gerald of the West" would cut out a lot of stops that these timings include: Cardiff - Swansea - Carmarthen - Aberystwyth (reverse) - Dovey Junction (reverse)** - Porthmadog - Bangor (reverse) - Holyhead. Such a timing is surely possible given enough political will & cash, but the costs would surely be vast: forgive me for thinking that it is telling that the Mott McD report shows that a short burst of 75 mph running north of Lampeter apart, Camarthen - Aber would be a 50/65mph railway (Mott-McD p59).

So let's assume that station stops cost 3 mins of running time and reversals 5 (?? @ChiefPlanner / @Bald Rick ), and the linespeeds allowed it (I've not got a sectional appendix), and the Afon Wen - Bangor rebuild results in linespeeds the same as for Carmathen - Aber, then WWCR Cardiff - Swansea - Carmarthen - Aberystwyth (reverse) - Dovey Junction (reverse)** - Porthmadog - Bangor would look thus:

Cardiff - Carmathen, 74m 55ch (Railmiles); 1h 22m; av sp 54.6 mph (I'm not sure how much faster the SDL would be?)
Carmathen - Aber, 54m 54ch (Mott McD report); 1h 8m; av speed 52.3 mph
Reverse 5 mins
Aber - Dovey Junction - Penychain, 67m 03ch (Railmiles); 1h 21m; av speed 49.6 mph (incl a stop at Porthmadog and reversal at Dovey Junc)
Afon Wen - Bangor, 27m 60ch; 0h 32m; av speed 52.3 mph

Cardiff - Bangor (via Carmathen) 226m 12ch, 4h 28m, av speed 50.6 mph

This (presumably optimistic) best case would be 4h 28m -- 34m more than Gerald today. I know this is all back of an envelope, but it seems like a great deal of money to go more slowly than the "slingshot" that people seem to be objecting to. If (when!) electrification reaches Carmathen including via the SDL, then if the Cardiff-Carmathen section is largely 90/100mph (?, one hopes) then WWCR *could* be quicker than Gerald is today. But the incremental pound would surely be much more effectively spent on the Marches line?


* Mott-McD p60 using Class 185s. No idea what this would look like with 802s; probably not much different, given the low line speeds.
** I'm assuming that no-one is seriously proposing an "Aberdovey cut-off" with an elegant curving bridge across the mouth of the Afon Dyfi.....

 

[talerddig]

Those who aren't aware should check out the front page of the Traws Link page http://trawslinkcymru.org.uk/traws-link-cymru/, which sets out its aims. It's bilingual in places, but don't worry, that content isn't full of anti English messages... probably because the make up of the area is quite across the spectrum in terms of UK nationality (and dare I say, non-UK nationality and long may it continue).

I personally find it bizarre that the answer to Wales' transport network is to throw the money at the English railway network. The fact remains that the North and South are two separate animals. It's a by-product of history and how the trade was developed - everything went East. If the Welsh Assembly has any seriousness about serving the whole nation and not just the affluent south east (sound familiar?), then it needs to be able to extend transport networks across Wales. This line is but one link in that. The whole infrastructure of Wales needs to be shaken up, to allow it to be more than just a conduit for packet stations for trade from outside.

I am a bit surprised in some of the suggestions that somehow the buses will need more subsidy, that you need to reverse out of Aberystwyth (it's a unit and you go out and into the station on the same piece of track!), that somehow all the railways will be environmentally unfriendly, as opposed to the English railways (wouldn't they look to utilise the same developments? One would hope so) even that a bridge would need to be built across the Dyfi (one way to kill off the project) , but then that's people's opinions which is what the forum is for.

i apologise if people got angry, upset or somehow offended by my use of the Welsh language. Although an officially i.e. legally recognised medium in the UK, it does seem to get people running scared about fifth columnists. The translation was 'We're still here', taken from the Dafydd Iwan song translated of the same name. The chorus runs 'We are still here, in spite of everyone and everything' and has been played even at Twickenham (I know, 'cos I was there...), so I guess it isn't quite as subversive as some would worry.

I would like to wish everyone a Happy Christmas and I hope to God that 2020 leaves us less confrontational and better off than we are now. Then perhaps all our dreams can come true.

 

[Rhydgaled]

If the Welsh Assembly has any seriousness about serving the whole nation and not just the affluent south east (sound familiar?), then it needs to be able to extend transport networks across Wales.

I agree with that sentiment, I just don't think the Carmarthen-Aberystwyth rail link as proposed (with a journey time slower than by car) would be a good use of limited funds. Additional double track on the Cambrian and improvements on the north Wales coast (such as building a Caernarfon branch and probably electrification) would perhaps be better investments.

I am a bit surprised in some of the suggestions that somehow the buses will need more subsidy

That seems rather obvious to me; the train would be significantly faster than the bus and would probably be alot more comfortable. Passengers travelling between Aberystwyth and Tregaron/Lampeter/Carmarthen are therefore likely to switch from bus to rail, meaning fewer passengers on the bus. That equals reduced revenue for the bus operators and therefore increased subsidy needed to keep the buses going.

you need to reverse out of Aberystwyth

Yes. It's no big deal as you say, except that you would need to be careful with how you set up the passenger information system. The train would run from Cardiff to Birmingham via Llanelli, Aberystwyth and Welshpool so you'd need to ensure that passengers for Birmingham don't board it in Cardiff.

somehow all the railways will be environmentally unfriendly, as opposed to the English railways (wouldn't they look to utilise the same developments?

Not ALL railways, just ones that are not electrified and too long to be within the range of battery trains. The fact is that the Wales & Borders franchise is ordering a large fleet of new diesel trains which, unless you scrap them prematurely (also not a great move environmentally) would run on into the 2050s. There are plans to decarbonise road travel, there are no such plans for rural railways yet (except in Scotland where they have a decarbonisation target in the 2030s and aren't buying new diesel trains).

even that a bridge would need to be built across the Dyfi (one way to kill off the project)

It depends on the aim of the scheme. If it's just (Cardiff)-Carmarthen-Aberystwyth (which would need to reverse to form the train on to Birmingham as noted above) then no Dyfi bridge is needed. If it is to go on to north Wales then you need either a new Dyfi bridge or a very tight chord at Dyfi Junction. Going to Machynlleth to reverse also kills off the idea of a north-south link in my view. Is it permissable to reverse in-service under ETCS on the single track between Dyfi Junction and Machynlleth to avoid the time penalty of going all the way to the latter?