Chiltern timetable - what if it wasn't about Brum-London?

[A0]

I note how the stations inside High Wycombe have barely got a mention.

On any other line in the South East, the likes of Northolt Park, Denham etc would have a 2tph minimum service, but obviously Chiltern have gone for the much more profitable Oxford etc. services in preference.

Well inside High Wycombe you have got Beaconsfield with 3tph each way and Gerrards Cross with 3tph north and 4tph south (+ 1 terminator).

The big difference though is capacity - pretty much every other line into / out of London has more than 2 tracks available to it, which allows faster trains to get past stoppers, whereas the Chiltern line doesn't - part of that is BR legacy of removing passing loops, but also it was only ever built as a 2 track railway and never upgraded to 4. And under BR from the late 60s through the 1970s and first half of the 1980s it was probably more neglected than pretty much any other route into / out of London - BR totally failed to see any commercial value to the line - it's easy to forget that at one point places like Banbury received a stopping DMU service every 2 hours from Marylebone - when compared to places a similar distance out from London, such as Peterborough or Kettering - that was a particularly poor service.

I think that Chiltern will keep a significant Birmingham - London service, even post HS2, because it's less about end to end journeys and more about the other places served en route. There are people at places like Leamington, Banbury or Bicester who want to travel to both London and Birmingham - HS2 will do nothing for any of those except maybe make their trains a bit quieter. So any attempts to reduce the service pattern or increase the journey time isn't going to be well received.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think that Chiltern will keep a significant Birmingham - London service, even post HS2, because it's less about end to end journeys and more about the other places served en route.

Agreed. Whether the off peak frequency remains as pre Covid is a question to be answered, and I’d be surprised if Chiltern only fares for London - Birmingham remain.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Agreed. Whether the off peak frequency remains as pre Covid is a question to be answered, and I’d be surprised if Chiltern only fares for London - Birmingham remain.

And that of course comes back to the subject of the thread - if through journeys are in the minority, as the premium option will be HS2 and the budget option the classic WCML services, then it's probably time to consider how we change the timetable so it primarily serves journeys that Chiltern do but other TOCs (or whatever they're called back then) don't. This includes that the fast Oxford service is the GWR 80x to Paddington, while the Chiltern service is about connectivity.

 

[Hadders]

Chiltern is, in effect, two outer suburban services joined together. You'll always need to allow journey opportunities like Bicester North to Leamington, High Wycombe to Solihull etc so I suspect the key thing will be the future calling pattern and frequency.

As for fares from London to Birmingham you need to be careful if you increase them as it could introduce opportunities for passengers to split, or fares from intermediate stations to Birmingham and London will also need to increase - this would definitely not be popular with the anti-HS2 brigade...

 

[Bletchleyite]

With regard to fares as HS2 will be the premium service I can't see that the classic lines will have the "penalty level" peak fares that would cause that problem anyway.

 

[Ianno87]

As for fares from London to Birmingham you need to be careful if you increase them as it could introduce opportunities for passengers to split, or fares from intermediate stations to Birmingham and London will also need to increase - this would definitely not be popular with the anti-HS2 brigade...

Chiltern have some absurdly good value fares available London-Brum, both walk-up and (particularly) Advances, which probably do get people travelling by rail who probably wouldn't otherwise travel at all. I think there should still be some kind of "value" option available, although post-HS2 that need not necessarily be Chiltern.

 

[Hadders]

With regard to fares as HS2 will be the premium service I can't see that the classic lines will have the "penalty level" peak fares that would cause that problem anyway.

Some posters are advocating increasing the current 'via High Wycombe' fares to match the 'Any Permitted' fare prior to HS2 opening. This could result in unintended consequences by introducing splitting opportunities or increasing fares from intermediate stations

Chiltern have some absurdly good value fares available London-Brum, both walk-up and (particularly) Advances, which probably do get people travelling by rail who probably wouldn't otherwise travel at all. I think there should still be some kind of "value" option available, although post-HS2 that need not necessarily be Chiltern.

There'd be no need for Advance fares between London and Birmingham, to be honest a sensible walk on fares structure is all that is needed on outer suburban services (GTR have it about right on the GN side). Value passengers can take advantage but most will go via HS2 or via the classic WCML.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think there should still be some kind of "value" option available, although post-HS2 that need not necessarily be Chiltern.

I imagine the budget off peak option post HS2 will be HS2. There will be lots of seats to fill.

 

[Ianno87]

Some posters are advocating increasing the current 'via High Wycombe' fares to match the 'Any Permitted' fare prior to HS2 opening. This could result in unintended consequences by introducing splitting opportunities or increasing fares from intermediate stations


There'd be no need for Advance fares between London and Birmingham, to be honest a sensible walk on fares structure is all that is needed on outer suburban services (GTR have it about right on the GN side). Value passengers can take advantage but most will go via HS2 or via the classic WCML.

With HS2's capacity at certain times of day, it could very well be the 'value' option itself!

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Chiltern have very few evening restrictions in the evening peak, whereas Avanti peak fares are notoriously prohibitive. I could see this differentation continuing, at least. After all, it's something BR itself did - there were fewer evening peak restrictions on a stopper from (say) Paddington to Oxford, or KX to Peterborough, than on the fast services.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Chiltern have very few evening restrictions in the evening peak, whereas Avanti peak fares are notoriously prohibitive. I could see this differentation continuing, at least. After all, it's something BR itself did - there were fewer evening peak restrictions on a stopper from (say) Paddington to Oxford, or KX to Peterborough, than on the fast services.

HS2 won't likely have peak restrictions or indeed any restrictions other than "you use the train and seat it says on your ticket". It will be totally dynamically priced.

 

[Bald Rick]

HS2 won't likely have peak restrictions or indeed any restrictions other than "you use the train and seat it says on your ticket". It will be totally dynamically priced.

It’s a bit early to say that with certainty.

 

[philosopher]

I think that Chiltern will keep a significant Birmingham - London service, even post HS2, because it's less about end to end journeys and more about the other places served en route. There are people at places like Leamington, Banbury or Bicester who want to travel to both London and Birmingham - HS2 will do nothing for any of those except maybe make their trains a bit quieter. So any attempts to reduce the service pattern or increase the journey time isn't going to be well received.

I do wonder if one of the Birmingham services will end up getting diverted to Stratford. Stratford will get a lot better service and excluding Birmingham, Solihull will be the only station that ends up getting a less frequent service.

 

[HST43257]

I do wonder if one of the Birmingham services will end up getting diverted to Stratford. Stratford will get a lot better service and excluding Birmingham, Solihull will be the only station that ends up getting a less frequent service.

I’m sure the even faster journey to Solihull (HS2) will be quite popular for those not wishing to travel budget.

 

[Techniquest]

Chiltern’s trains to Oxford are extremely popular with tourists visiting Bicester Village Shopping Centre. So much so that there signs at Marylebone Station in Arabic and Mandarin aimed at tourists visiting Bicester Village Shopping Centre. Once tourists are allowed to visit the UK fairly freely, then the Oxford service is once again going to become busy.

Therefore there is a strong argument for keeping the fast services to Oxford to keep these tourists using these services.

Oh indeed, I've seen the crowds myself. I just hope the railway doesn't shoot itself in the foot and do silly things like sending out a 2-car 168 on an Oxford, expecting low demand, and finding huge crowds being turned away.

There's a large number of colleagues in my location that will be on a train as soon as restrictions are lifted, myself included, and that's just the ones I've talked to. There is zero doubt in my mind that off-peak in particular it's going to be nice and busy on the railway. So I hope capacity will be available, like it was in 2020, and that we don't go back to short-forming trains all over the place again.

Also, someone else suggested the budget traveller would probably use the WCML over Chiltern post-HS2. I agree, if I need to get to London on the cheap I tend to go via Birmingham and the WCML. During a trip planning session, Chiltern features approximately 1% of the time, usually only after being reminded of its existance!

 

[Doctor Fegg]

I do wonder if one of the Birmingham services will end up getting diverted to Stratford. Stratford will get a lot better service and excluding Birmingham, Solihull will be the only station that ends up getting a less frequent service.

Which isn't great for the people from intermediate stations who want to go to Birmingham. It's not all about London.

 

[Ianno87]

Also, someone else suggested the budget traveller would probably use the WCML over Chiltern post-HS2. I agree, if I need to get to London on the cheap I tend to go via Birmingham and the WCML. During a trip planning session, Chiltern features approximately 1% of the time, usually only after being reminded of its existance!

Today, it's LNWR who are the "budget budget" option, but the slowest. Chiltern are a bit budget, being the half-way house in trading off a bit of journey time for quite a bit of price.

 

[JonathanH]

Which isn't great for the people from intermediate stations who want to go to Birmingham. It's not all about London.

That is exactly why the service should be slowed down to make it easier for the people from intermediate stations to get to Birmingham. Hopefully, concentration of all demand from London to Birmingham on HS2 using appropriate fare structures will create more room for people on the other routes. This is why there needs to be simplification of fares to the Avanti / Any Permitted levels before HS2 opens and from what 'Bald Rick' posts in messages 32 and 38 there appear to be movements in that direction.

 

[HSTEd]

It’s a bit early to say that with certainty.

I'm not at all convinced about the benefits of dynamic pricing in HS2.

As you say, the capacity available is colossal.

They will want to do anything possible to drive as many people onto it, throwing roadblocks in the way doesn't help achieve this goal.

Indeed in a railway where peak commuter flows are dramatically reduced I'm not even sure Advanced Purchase even makes any sense any more.
It adds a lot of operational and organisational complexity for not much benefit really.

EDIT:
I really think the way to go on this is to pitch it more like Crossrail than an "Intercity" railway.
They will want to encourage people to go to London for an afternoon or whatever, not make people plan trips in advance.

There is no significant supply constraint on capacity, 400m high density units with huge amounts of seating after all - even if HS2 has succeeded in killing double decks with its platform height restrictions.

 

[JonathanH]

I'm not at all convinced about the benefits of dynamic pricing in HS2.

Avoiding standing passengers would appear to be the primary benefit of compulsory reservation (although if HS2 provides much of the service over the Northern Fells, are those trains going to be compulsory reservation throughout?).

 

[Techniquest]

Today, it's LNWR who are the "budget budget" option, but the slowest. Chiltern are a bit budget, being the half-way house in trading off a bit of journey time for quite a bit of price.

That they are, with regards to LNWR, but I don't think they're that slow. When I last did it, I think it was about 1315 and a shade over 2 hours later (2h04m I think) I was at New Street. I don't remember how fast the 1310 to Birmingham Moor Street was (1h44m?) but it certainly didn't feel much faster.

For me, coming into Birmingham from Hereford, it's same-station interchange onto LNWR which makes a big difference. It's also nice and easy to put a bike on a 350. It probably is on Chiltern, but it still means having to endure a 168 if one is unlucky to get one in place of the booked 68. Certainly I would prefer a 350 to a 168, especially now the 350s have been refurbished.

Quite honestly, I don't really like Chiltern all that much. So I could be offered a £1 fare to travel with them, or a £5 fare on LNWR, and I would prefer the LNWR fare

 

[HSTEd]

Avoiding standing passengers would appear to be the primary benefit of compulsory reservation (although if HS2 provides much of the service over the Northern Fells, are those trains going to be compulsory reservation throughout?).

Whats the problem wth standing passengers?

 

[172007]

You want to electrify up to Snow Hill or Solihull only to give it to five carriage trains with longitudinal seats

You want to electrify up to Snow Hill or Solihull only to give it to five carriage trains with longitudinal seats?

Nope. The core business is Marylebone to the home counties and Oxford. That sits pretty good with London Overground, certainly the Met services to Aylesbury. Not sure what the mention of London Overground has to mean electric trains and beach seats tbh. Birmingham -Marylebone is the question in the thread really. It may end up once an hour or a break in the day and would sit with WM Trains concession. Dorridge terminators may take up the slack being extended to Banbury during the day and what about Kidderminster.

 

[cle]

Why should Chiltern give up the budget option to the WCML, post-HS2? I see them as the same once HS2 opens. Longer trains would enable capacity for both end to end and the various other permutations.

The line we draw at Banbury for demand running both ways can be drawn at Milton Keynes too.

Not to mention, they invested in it to nurture this market. Rail franchising may well be changed up again - but if any journeys should be discouraged by HS2 through a lack of fares, it should be Euston - WCML - Birmingham. Coventry = Solihull + Leamington + Banbury here. Still a need, and still the main service. Isn't the WCML post-HS2 supposed to belong to MKC!

Let's face it, we will have three mainlines to Birmingham, and fares/speed/stock/preference/London onward travel will determine which ones people pick. Much like actual competition with many variables, great.

 

[Bald Rick]

Why should Chiltern give up the budget option to the WCML, post-HS2?

Because the investors in HS2 will want the return on their investment to be as high as possible.

 

[Ianno87]

Whats the problem wth standing passengers?

See the reaction of the Twittersphere every Maundy Thursday afternoon.

Plus it makes a difference to the sizing of station, tunnel emergency exits, etc depending on the "normal" capacity of the train.

 

[HSTEd]

See the reaction of the Twittersphere every Maundy Thursday afternoon.

Imagine the reaction of the twittersphere when you leave people on the platform because you banned standing passengers.

Or yield management drives fares so high that people just drive instead.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Imagine the reaction of the twittersphere when you leave people on the platform because you banned standing passengers.

They won't be on the platform because they already know they don't have a ticket for that train.

 

[HSTEd]

They won't be on the platform because they already know they don't have a ticket for that train.

No, they will be driving instead and more income is lost to the railway because it doesn't want to have upset people on twitter a handful of times per year.

 

[cle]

Because the investors in HS2 will want the return on their investment to be as high as possible.

But how is that obligation specific to Chiltern, vs the legacy WCML?