Coronavirus.

[westv]

Beards? Horrible hairy things.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Self-responsibility counts. It's very basic rules, nevertheless very important ones:

• Wash your hands throughly
• Cough and sneeze into a tissue or the crook of your arm
• Stay at home if you have fever and/or a cough

Don't expect the government to do this for you.

But we live in a nanny state now..."many" people are totally reliant on the government...

 

[Edders23]

"The interesting thing is what happens if things become really bad. Do staff members "desert" their post deciding the risk isn't worth it? What happens then is that the service will simply fall apart and very few trains will run. Frankly I suspect the service would have been shut down before that point."

If things get bad then there would be complete curfew and quarantine anyway so train staff would be told to stay home and isolate

 

[fishtastic]

As far as I understand, this virus is believed to be not significantly different to infuenza for which many are not vaccinated. If anyone who thinks they have symptoms of the virus self-isolates (and then asks for a test) they will protect the rest of the population and allow us to conduct our business normally. If in addition we pay attention to personal protective hygiene, even better.

The 'no worse than flu' meme comes from taking the death toll in the first few weeks and then saying flu kills many more. Or by dividing the dead by the number infected, which isn't how a death rate is calculated (dead/dead+recovered). This is a significantly more dangerous disease than flu, however there is the chance based on how it infects and the tissues that are affected that we in the west may be less at risk than Asians (lookup ACE2), this hypothesis would indicate the same for women Vs men which appears to be the case with the proportion of women affected being lower.

The Chinese didn't take measures affecting over 700 million people for a disease no worse than flu.

 

[185]

Was an approach by the RMT to Grant Shapps last week and earlier this week stemming from an incident at Leeds where a person who had been told to self isolate got on an LNER train at Leeds and asked staff how "he/she self isolates on this train" - unbeleveable.

https://www.rmt.org.uk/news/rmt-raises-coronavirus-concerns-with-transport-secretary/

26 February 2020

RMT Press Office

TRANSPORT UNION RMT has raised concerns again today at the lack of clear and consistent advise regarding the Coronavirus with the Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps. The union was prompted to write for the second time following an incident at Leeds Station yesterday.

In the letter, RMT general secretary Mick Cash said:

“I write with concern that I have not yet received a reply to my letter of 17th February 2020 requesting urgent advice regarding the coronavirus.

“As you may know there was an incident with LNER at Leeds Station yesterday when a member of the public boarded a train and then informed staff that he had been advised to self-isolate. This has led to LNER circulating their own guidance to staff, but this is only one company out of the many that operate in our transport network.

“Again I must stress that it is imperative that clear and consistent advice is provided by the Department of Transport as a matter of urgency given that our members are dealing with the health and wellbeing not-only of themselves but the travelling public across the transport sector. Without such guidance we will be forced to advise our members as best we can for the safety of all involved.

“I can only stress the urgency of the situation and again request a response at your earliest convenience.”

 

[bahnause]

The 'no worse than flu' meme comes from taking the death toll in the first few weeks and then saying flu kills many more. Or by dividing the dead by the number infected, which isn't how a death rate is calculated (dead/dead+recovered).

Calculating the death rate only ever works after the epidemic is over. The number during a epidemic are not comparable and only ever give you a vague hint.

 

[philthetube]

Staying now in one of the countries first hit, but with near stable figures the last weeks, in fact Bangkok, Thailand: the effects are minimal to nil. many people wear facemasks (mostly of the type that is thought of as being ineffective...or complain that these are sold out or too expensive), often as the bosses want them too. What one does see more-even on entry to many citybuses, is a bottle of sanitiser to ´disinfect´ your hands with. I´ve also read on other fora that people fear the strangest irrational things: like handing tickets to inspectors (chipcards=multi use).
From what Ive read about Italy-hardest hit on the continent: same measures as China has taken, mostly isolating those areas, trains pass by without stopping. There will inevitably also be a an awful lot of politics trying to score some distant goal about it.
If it really should come to the worst, then as such this is not different from any large and sudden outbreak of whatever infectuous disease.

It seems to me that this would be a very good way to spread it, you only need one infected person with a card to hand it to a inspector, who then handles loads of others and bingo, a bus load of potentially infected people.

 

[St Rollox]

You should wash hands anyway.
Truth is the government don't really have any answers.
We are on our own.

 

[bahnause]

You should wash hands anyway.
Truth is the government don't really have any answers.
We are on our own.

You can start there:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's likely large public events will be cancelled if we get significant infection - much like the Ireland-Italy rugby.
So it wouldn't be surprising to see eg football/golf tournaments affected.
Tour de Yorkshire.
VE-day event.
F1 events etc.
Marathons, Wimbledon, major cricket matches.
If we get outbreaks like that in Italy it would begin to impact local travel in those regions.
Airport traffic is already impacted with airlines cutting services to affected places, so connecting train travel is already down.
Tourism generally could be badly hit even if we don't get a major outbreak - eg Bicester Village is already impacted by the absence of Chinese tourists.
But we are not really there yet, another month will tell us.

 

[Jonny]

The 'no worse than flu' meme comes from taking the death toll in the first few weeks and then saying flu kills many more. Or by dividing the dead by the number infected, which isn't how a death rate is calculated (dead/dead+recovered). This is a significantly more dangerous disease than flu, however there is the chance based on how it infects and the tissues that are affected that we in the west may be less at risk than Asians (lookup ACE2), this hypothesis would indicate the same for women Vs men which appears to be the case with the proportion of women affected being lower.

The Chinese didn't take measures affecting over 700 million people for a disease no worse than flu.

Calculating the death rate only ever works after the epidemic is over. The number during a epidemic are not comparable and only ever give you a vague hint.

The way that the British Authorities are responding is similar to that of the 2009 Swine Flu episode (no vaccination was available for that strain at the time). Flu can be pretty nasty in susceptible patients. In fact, the British Authorities seem to be following a 'flu plan.

Also, previous similar diseases (notably SARS) have shown tendencies to adverse outcomes depending on the HLA gene variants of the sufferer, which is one of the main reasons that SARS (2003) mostly affected China and persons of Oriental ancestry. It may well be that China has a higher-than-usual proportion of people with COVID19 complications-susceptible HLA gene variants. We can't be sure what level of HLA-variant data the Chinese government does or does not hold (HLA variant profiles are generally used for compatibility testing for some organ transplants, hence the Chinese authorities might be keeping quiet on that one). I suspect that they are taking a higher degree of caution than otherwise as a result.

In the early stages, the numbers of dead (and hence the mortality ratio) may be over-inflated due to under-reporting of recoveries (not diagnosed) and current infections not having had time to recover; this takes a few weeks to stabilise. This means that the death rate is likely to be an over-estimate in the early stages. Apparently, early-stage death/(death + recovery) data is showing similar profiles to influenza variants for which there is no vaccine. Also, if there is a 'flu outbreak where there is no vaccine that can be made and delivered in time, then 500,000 deaths would be a plausible scenario. In fact, if you had told me prior to the COVID19/Coronavirus outbreak that you were expecting 80% infection with 500,000 dead (meaning about 50 million infection cases UK-wide, or just everyone infected), I would have thought you meant 'flu without vaccination.

Back on topic, I'm sure you would find it reasonable to be annoyed if a train was cancelled due to flu when the operational crew (driver, door operation person, etc.) were fit and healthy, and able to work the train.

... we are not really there yet, another month will tell us.

If the pattern stays as it is, then it is likely to be the same as a bad flu season, with the same mortality ratio that would be expected without a 'flu vaccine.

 

[AM9]

On a slightly different front, there have been discussions on the radio both yesterday and this morning regarding sick pay for those self isolating. There was the representative from the business community (didn't catch who) claiming that business couldn't afford to pay those who were ostensibly fit for work but were self isolated because they had returned from a hotspot or had called 111 when feeling 'flu-like'. A comment towards the end of the article was that business might regret that as if certain workers just couldn't afford to forgo two weeks pay, they would ingnore the request to stay at home and turn up at work, which in some cases might unnecessarily spread the virus into the workforce resulting in much higher losses than a few weeks pay. Legislation enforcing self-isolation would also be ineffective as those who couldn't afford the pay loss would ignore the orders and just turn up for work.

 

[ruaival]

*If* it came to that sort of level it surely shouldn't be beyond our resources as a country to provide hand gel and face mask booths at all (major) underground stations (maybe closing minor ones)? (No one allowed on underground unless they use the gel and wear the mask; the mask is to protect *others*, not yourself, but that works if everyone wears one).

The *official* worst case scenario for the UK was released as 80% infection rate, 500,000 dead. It probably won't be nearly as bad as that, it was a very worst case, and quarantine measures might reduce the rate, but the figures I've seen indicate it is 5-7x more deadly than 'normal' flu. But 'normal flu' does have some at least semi-effective** vaccines for vulnerable people and medical staff.

...

Could you share the type of source the 80% infection rate comes from?
500,000 dead is around 1% of the infected population if my maths is still ok.

 

[matt_world2004]

"The interesting thing is what happens if things become really bad. Do staff members "desert" their post deciding the risk isn't worth it? What happens then is that the service will simply fall apart and very few trains will run. Frankly I suspect the service would have been shut down before that point."

If things get bad then there would be complete curfew and quarantine anyway so train staff would be told to stay home and isolate

Most rail staff are exempt from curfews when they are implemented due to the early and late nature (and often crucial nature of their work)

 

[duffield]

Could you share the type of source the 80% infection rate comes from?
500,000 dead is around 1% of the infected population if my maths is still ok.

Not where I found it, but here's a reference
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-could-kill-500000-infect-21578658
Relevant sentence:

Coronavirus could kill half a million people and infect 80 per cent of Britons in a "worst case scenario", a Government document warns

It's been quoted elsewhere so I assume the 'government document' must be genuine, but a link to it would have been useful.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think 80% is outlandish. I suspect very near 100% of people get a common cold each winter, for example.

 

[johnnychips]

On a slightly different front, there have been discussions on the radio both yesterday and this morning regarding sick pay for those self isolating. There was the representative from the business community (didn't catch who) claiming that business couldn't afford to pay those who were ostensibly fit for work but were self isolated because they had returned from a hotspot or had called 111 when feeling 'flu-like'. A comment towards the end of the article was that business might regret that as if certain workers just couldn't afford to forgo two weeks pay, they would ingnore the request to stay at home and turn up at work, which in some cases might unnecessarily spread the virus into the workforce resulting in much higher losses than a few weeks pay. Legislation enforcing self-isolation would also be ineffective as those who couldn't afford the pay loss would ignore the orders and just turn up for work.

I bet a lot of people on here go into work when they don’t really feel well because
- they don’t want to let colleagues down and make extra work for them
- not going into work would mean a huge backlog when they did go back
- they would have a loss of pay if they are an agency worker, or sick pay only kicks in after a certain time

To go on topic, maybe a train driver could be at less risk from others as they are isolated in the cab from the public, and could be issued with antiseptic wipes before their shift to clean the controls. Other public-facing employees, less so.

 

[johntea]

I noticed at Leeds station they’ve started sticking up hand sanitizers everywhere

 

[185]

I note this Coronavirus / impact on railway thread now resides in the "General Discussion" thread, alongside non-railway matters.

Whilst there is some concern amongst staff, there is most certainly serious concerns expressed by a growing number of passengers regarding what action the railway can take to mitigate the transmission on board trains.

 

[xydancer]

I too am in East Asia, Taipei to be precise. So far, and with lots of crossing of fingers etc., we've managed to escape with just 34 cases. To the surprise of friends back home when I tell them, life actually goes on pretty much as normal with schools, theatres, museums etc all open. It's very unlike Hong Kong or China. The media is also taking things differently. There's none of the 'doomsday' headlines or reporting I've seen in the UK press. Here, it's also being reported factually and calmly - that goes for HK too, which is is a far more parlous position that Taiwan.

Apart from their being more cleaning going on, especially of hand rails on stairs and escalators in stations, and provision of hand sanitizer sprays, the impact on public transport so far is zero. Everything runs just as before - as an aside, the Taipei MRT (subway/local train) is one of the cleanest and most efficient I've come across anywhere in the world. On trains, around 95% people wear face masks. Slightly lower on local buses. From my observations, MRT passenger numbers are down by around 15% - which means I now almost always get a seat when travelling into the city centre. I suspect a lot of that is that there are less visitors to the country and less locals heading off on days out.

As an aside, quite what use the masks really are might be another matter. Their is a lot of doubt about their true effectiveness. The biggest plus is that the help cut down on hand to mouth contact. Having said that, you should see the way they are taken on and off, stuffed in pockets etc; and a surprising number of people only cover the mouth, not the nose. I do get why the latter - they are ghastly to wear, certainly make breathing more difficult, and a personal bind is that they make my glasses steam up. Then there's rationing (thanks to panic buying), which means people are only allowed two per week anyway.

An observation on some comments you read, not necessarily on here. While this particular coronavirus (and note, it's 'corona', not 'corono' as in the header to this conversation) has some symptoms common to regular flu such as a fever (although even that's not a totally reliable sign), it is different. COVID-19 essentially causes respiratory problems - shortness of breath, coughing etc. As doctors and government here are keen to point out, if you have the usual cold symptoms of a runny nose, blocked sinuses or a sore throat, you almost certainly don't have it.

 

[bramling]

I bet a lot of people on here go into work when they don’t really feel well because
- they don’t want to let colleagues down and make extra work for them
- not going into work would mean a huge backlog when they did go back
- they would have a loss of pay if they are an agency worker, or sick pay only kicks in after a certain time

To go on topic, maybe a train driver could be at less risk from others as they are isolated in the cab from the public, and could be issued with antiseptic wipes before their shift to clean the controls. Other public-facing employees, less so.

To that list you can add the possibility that they might breach an attendance policy. For example it’s not uncommon for companies to have a policy like “two non-attendance items within X weeks will trigger a potential disciplinary hearing”.

 

[AM9]

I bet a lot of people on here go into work when they don’t really feel well because
- they don’t want to let colleagues down and make extra work for them
- not going into work would mean a huge backlog when they did go back
- they would have a loss of pay if they are an agency worker, or sick pay only kicks in after a certain time

To go on topic, maybe a train driver could be at less risk from others as they are isolated in the cab from the public, and could be issued with antiseptic wipes before their shift to clean the controls. Other public-facing employees, less so.

This outbreak is different to when people "don't really feel well" as it is a defined health hazard to many others, and there is an implied legal rsponsibility to not risk passing the infection on. Scotland has just declared COVID 19 a notifiable disease and it it likely that that will be the case across the UK when cases are registered here.

 

[ScotGG]

"From my observations, MRT passenger numbers are down by around 15%"

This is the biggest issue right now in the UK. It doesn't matter how many have it in some ways, but rather the impact that people COULD get it. How many transport organisation can even afford a 10% reduction in passengers for a couple of months?

 

[Bletchleyite]

"From my observations, MRT passenger numbers are down by around 15%"

This is the biggest issue right now in the UK. It doesn't matter how many have it in some ways, but rather the impact that people COULD get it. How many transport organisation can even afford a 10% reduction in passengers for a couple of months?

As they'll also probably end up with a 10% reduction in staff, I'd imagine a lot of them are presently working on reduced timetables which would save costs. Or that said, in most cases the Saturday or even Sunday timetable could just be dropped in.

 

[flymo]

Living in Hong Kong as I do I can only say this place is nuts. There has been pandemonium in so many areas with people literally fighting over face masks, bags of rice and the infamous armed robbery for 60 packs of bog rolls. I've seen and witnessed tens of thousands of people queuing up for nearly 22 hours for a box of face masks, people staying away from work, shops closed, restaurants closed and now some buses services pared back so much there is now severe overcrowding on some routes meaning closer contact with your fellow traveller than there would normally be thus negating any calls for social separation. Drivers with some companies are also on unpaid leave for a couple of days a month due to fewer buses operating. Some operators have dropped about 25% of services and this may increase if things continue.

The border with China is all but closed but there are still flights and the Zhuhai bridge is still open too. Anyone arriving from mainland China is either prohibited or quarantined for 14 days, flights are cut back as so many people are avoiding the place, High Speed trains to China are all cancelled too. As if the riots weren't bad enough !! I used to go to China 1 or 2 times a month, now of course cannot. Some visitors from South Korea are now also banned from entering or required to go into quarantine and of course the Government is in total disarray but mind you they have been for months so no change just because of the virus.

People generally wear masks everywhere, I'm not one to normally do so but do carry one and will wear it if in a crowded place.

Schools have been closed for weeks and will remain closed until at least Easter. Businesses are really suffering and sadly some may not survive. Cathay Pacific (among many others) are haemorrhaging money and have cut huge numbers of flights and told asked staff to take unpaid leave.

I'm supposed to be heading back to UK end of April for a holiday but I keep checking the flight details weekly to see if they are changing. Flights up to end of March are currently being affected, this will likely continue into the early summer.

On the plus side... erm........I'll let you know when I think of anything..

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surprised that there's a fight over bog rolls in an Asian country - isn't the norm over there to wash anyway, with most loos being fitted with a hose of some kind for that purpose?

 

[flymo]

Surprised that there's a fight over bog rolls in an Asian country - isn't the norm over there to wash anyway, with most loos being fitted with a hose of some kind for that purpose?

Er....no.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Er....no.

Perhaps that's more South East Asia than far East, then. It's definitely the case in Thailand, India etc.

Can't say I'd be fighting over bog rolls, I'd just switch to that method until they were readily back on sale.

 

[yorksrob]

Perhaps that's more South East Asia than far East, then. It's definitely the case in Thailand, India etc.

Can't say I'd be fighting over bog rolls, I'd just switch to that method until they were readily back on sale.

I'm told that they're popular in some parts of South Asia and the Middle East.

 

[Cowley]

I note this Coronavirus / impact on railway thread now resides in the "General Discussion" thread, alongside non-railway matters.

Thread title now edited to reflect that.