edwin_m
Veteran Member
I'd like to hope we are more on top of it than they were in Wuhan, because we've had more time to prepare and because we could initially focus on those who have travelled from that area rather than trying to monitor the whole population. But Italy had the same advantages and it seems to be out of control there, so we should certainly be planning for it to follow the same path here even if that probably won't happen.
If we were to achieve a 100% effective lockdown for the incubation period across the UK then in theory the virus would disappear. But the lockdown will never be 100% effective and even if it was the virus would soon be re-introduced somehow. So the measures that are implemented will have to be calibrated to balance public safety with keeping society going in something like a normal fashion, as well as trying to manage the peak of the epidemic to contain it within the capacity to deal with it, but also to get the worst over before autumn when that capacity reduces. I'm beginning to think this will require elderly and other more vulnerable people to be more severely restricted than the general population.
If we were to achieve a 100% effective lockdown for the incubation period across the UK then in theory the virus would disappear. But the lockdown will never be 100% effective and even if it was the virus would soon be re-introduced somehow. So the measures that are implemented will have to be calibrated to balance public safety with keeping society going in something like a normal fashion, as well as trying to manage the peak of the epidemic to contain it within the capacity to deal with it, but also to get the worst over before autumn when that capacity reduces. I'm beginning to think this will require elderly and other more vulnerable people to be more severely restricted than the general population.