Coronavirus.

[Bletchleyite]

What's the point in increasing income tax when people are stopping work and thus not earning income? Our entire economy is service based.

I meant to help fund any problems this causes for businesses that may lead to failure, particularly small ones. The increase in income tax would be afterwards, to restock the coffers.

 

[Howardh]

My office is now closed for the rest of the week due to a potential risk of infection that we've been alerted to, hence working from home for a while to come. It's weird watching this thing sweep all the way around the globe. Feels a lot like science fiction leaping off the page and into our real lives.

This isn't the first time and it won't be the last, but in the days of Spanish Flu (1918) we didn't have; world-wide travel, the internet and 24-hr worldwide news stations. I just wonder where we would be now if it were 1970 instead of 2020?
Anyhow, I'm off to a pub quiz tonight, so will be sat around my team for the thick end of two hours. Risk? Precautions?? Not the foggiest, but I won't be touching anyone (ie shaking hands) so what IS the risk?

 

[bramling]

That's all very well, but the epidemic is predicted to be active for 3-6 months, so you are proposing that it would be better for people offer 55 to be cooped-up for that period.

I suspect people may well come to that conclusion, especially when they consider that the older generation will still have their (in many cases generous) pension to fall back on.

I think it's highly likely many people would reach a point where they feel enough inconvenience is enough - especially with the way Britain has become rather divided over recent years.

 

[bramling]

Taxing the wealthiest (typically the over 65s who own houses that have ballooned in value since they were bought for 50p in 1983) would

That doesn't really work as you can't really tax an asset that someone is living in. Whilst it's very true many houses have massively increased in value since the 1980s, this is irrelevant to those still living in said properties. It only becomes relevant if someone decides to sell *and* move to somewhere or something much cheaper.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I suspect people may well come to that conclusion, especially when they consider that the older generation will still have their (in many cases generous) pension to fall back on.

I think it's highly likely many people would reach a point where they feel enough inconvenience is enough - especially with the way Britain has become rather divided over recent years.

Not only that, but as people can spread it when asymptomatic, the vulnerable people isolating themselves is going to be the most effective way of stopping deaths from it.

It feels inconsiderate, but in many ways it will be the most effective way.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That doesn't really work as you can't really tax an asset that someone is living in. Whilst it's very true many houses have massively increased in value since the 1980s, this is irrelevant to those still living in said properties. It only becomes relevant if someone decides to sell *and* move to somewhere or something much cheaper.

You can - Council Tax basically does.

However, I'd just put a few pence on Income Tax as necessary for a year or two to rebuild the coffers.

 

[nlogax]

This isn't the first time and it won't be the last, but in the days of Spanish Flu (1918) we didn't have; world-wide travel, the internet and 24-hr worldwide news stations. I just wonder where we would be now if it were 1970 instead of 2020?

As a kid I read 'Empty World' by John Christopher. It did a good job of describing that sort of situation and left a lasting impression on me.

https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Empty-World/John-Christopher/9781481420006

"Soon, a devastating illness, the Calcutta Plague, begins making the headlines. After killing thousands of people in India in just a few months, the disease begins to spread much farther, quickly sweeping across the world and eventually settling in the same village where Neil (the protagonist) resides."

 

[bramling]

You can - Council Tax basically does.

Granted, however again this runs into the same problem that just become someone is living in a property which may have accrued heavily in value doesn't mean that person has masses of cash to spend on council tax.

Indeed for those living in older / bigger properties the opposite may well be true as such properties tend to act as money pits when it comes to maintenance.

Maybe we should just increase VAT on toilet rolls!

 

[AM9]

I suspect people may well come to that conclusion, especially when they consider that the older generation will still have their (in many cases generous) pension to fall back on.

I think it's highly likely many people would reach a point where they feel enough inconvenience is enough - especially with the way Britain has become rather divided over recent years.

It's worth remembering that the over 60's are the voting generation rather than the 'I can't see what difference voting makes' younger groups. That fact is ever present the Government's and other political parties' minds.

 

[bramling]

It's worth remembering that the over 60's are the voting generation rather than the 'I can't see what difference voting makes' younger groups. That fact is ever present the Government's and other political parties' minds.

This kind of overlooks the large group in the middle who generally *do* vote, and also contribute rather a lot in the form of income tax.

 

[miami]

That doesn't really work as you can't really tax an asset that someone is living in. Whilst it's very true many houses have massively increased in value since the 1980s, this is irrelevant to those still living in said properties. It only becomes relevant if someone decides to sell *and* move to somewhere or something much cheaper.

It does when you compare the tax load on someone having to pay to rent that same house.

You tax it by putting a charge on the value of the house, just like a mortgage. Say the house is worth £600k and there's a 0.5% tax per year on house value (which would be about an average £1200 a year on an avergae £250k house, so similar level to council tax. An 80k flat would attract £400, less than council tax. A £2m house would attract £10k, far more than council tax.

On a 600k house that would be a 3k charge on the house. In 20 years time that would be upto 10% or £60k (of the current value - if the house is worth 900k in 20 years time that would be £90k)

However, I'd just put a few pence on Income Tax as necessary for a year or two to rebuild the coffers.

I know people who can't afford to buy a house of the right size in the right location, who are paying £2k a month in rent, which would push their marginal income tax up to nearly 80% (40% income tax, 2% NI, 18% child tax, 9% student loan repayment, 6% masters loan repayment).

Of course if they are self isolating their income will be cut because they simply won't be paid.

Meanwhile their neighbours on their £30k pension and £0 rent won't be affected at all.

 

[Meerkat]

This isn't the first time and it won't be the last, but in the days of Spanish Flu (1918) we didn't have; world-wide travel, the internet and 24-hr worldwide news stations. I just wonder where we would be now if it were 1970 instead of 2020?
Anyhow, I'm off to a pub quiz tonight, so will be sat around my team for the thick end of two hours. Risk? Precautions?? Not the foggiest, but I won't be touching anyone (ie shaking hands) so what IS the risk?

How many people have touched that pint glass that you are about to hold and then put to your lips?

Not only that, but as people can spread it when asymptomatic,

Can’t find the BBC link but it said there was little to no evidence of asymptomatic transmission, thankfully!

18% child tax, 9% student loan repayment,

child tax?

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Not sure what essential workers will be.

Healthcare staff, doctors, police, ambulance, fire brigade for starters. Teachers are essential workers but won't be "essential" if schools close down

 

[GB]

Utilities and *transport staff also fall under that category.

*Tho would remain to be seen just how big the net is for that industry.

 

[Meerkat]

Healthcare staff, doctors, police, ambulance, fire brigade for starters. Teachers are essential workers but won't be "essential" if schools close down

Don’t forget the dustbin men and the food logistics people

 

[Howardh]

This is quite useful r/e trains and other public transport; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51736185

On the London Underground, where there is an extremely high density of people crowded into each carriage, previous research has suggested a link between commuting and the likelihood of catching respiratory illnesses.
Dr Lara Gosce, at the Institute of Global Health, says her research (published in 2018) showed people who used the Underground regularly were more likely to suffer flu-like symptoms.
"Particularly, it shows that boroughs served by fewer lines - where inhabitants are forced to change line one or more times when travelling on the Underground - have higher rates of influenza-like diseases, compared to well-served boroughs where passengers reach their destination by one direct trip," she said.
If you're travelling on a relatively empty train or bus, though, your risks would be different. How well vehicles are ventilated and how long you spend on them will also play a role.
And cleaning will be a factor too. Network Rail says it is continuing with its "business as usual" cleaning schedule but is making plans for extra, specialist cleans of stations and trains if necessary.
Dr Gosce says that "limiting the number of close contacts with potentially infected individuals and objects is important".
"In terms of travel, avoid peak hours if possible," she says, suggesting, where viable, passengers should choose routes involving only one means of transport.
Currently, the UK government is not telling people to avoid public transport. David Nabarro, a special adviser on coronavirus for the World Health Organization (WHO), told the BBC that although public transport was an important thing to look at, the evidence suggested that the kind of "fleeting contacts" people have when travelling together didn't so far seem to be the "most important source of transmission".

"Close contact for 15 minutes" seems to be their best guess, so if there's space I assume it's good practice to move around - although that increases your chances of being close to an infected person of course.

 

[miami]

Can’t find the BBC link but it said there was little to no evidence of asymptomatic transmission, thankfully!

That's completely wrong - the entire point is that people are transmitting despite not having any symptoms.

WHO confirm this

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

Which seems to be odd when people are being asked to self quarantine even without any symptoms.

How many people have touched that pint glass that you are about to hold and then put to your lips?

In contrast the evidence so far looks like majority of transmission is via close contact - not via surfaces.

 

[Howardh]

Don’t forget the dustbin men and the food logistics people

Care workers. The agency that provided regular carers for my late mum would be in absolute crisis if over 20% were off; and they wouldn't be able to "borrow" from other agencies if they had the same absence rates. In a way I'm glad she died earlier this year as I don't think I could cope single-handed if carers stopped coming; and there would be little chance of a "safe" bed elsewhere away from the virus (ie hospital/care home) so her death has solved that one sadly.
Note - she died of acute pneumonia and sepsis, leading to lung and eventually hear failure; similar to coronavirus symptoms.

 

[miami]

Don’t forget the dustbin men and the food logistics people

Those people at home would probably want electricity and water too, and no doubt they'll be gumpy if their phone and internet went down, and the tv and radio went quiet.

 

[Howardh]

That's completely wrong - the entire point is that people are transmitting despite not having any symptoms.



In contrast the evidence so far looks like majority of transmission is via close contact - not via surfaces.

Yes, I never got to reply to that, the glass should be sterile but there is the table, the pieces of paper and pens being passed around, the door handles etc. It's also a small cafe/bar so folks are close together - but on a Tuesday other than the quiz teams it's relatively empty.
The other night I was playing pool with a cue that's been passed around - that was a week ago so statistically I'd be showing symptoms now.
>>>And there's the issue of how to deal with the new girlfriend when you want more than just a "elbow thump" whatever that is??!!! *She has elderly relatives that she looks after too....
I just want to hibernate until my Ibiza holiday in June.

 

[Meerkat]

That's completely wrong - the entire point is that people are transmitting despite not having any symptoms

Have you got a quote for that, the BBC are quoting a study by experts.....?

the glass should be sterile

How? The glass has at least been handled out of the dishwasher by someone, by the bar bod serving, and by whoever got the round in. And quite possibly handled round the top where you are about to put your mouth.

 

[miami]

Have you got a quote for that, the BBC are quoting a study by experts.....?

My understanding of the last 2 months is that the big problem is people go for days, spreading it, even without any symptoms, hence people being asked to self isolate even if they have no symptoms. Maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick? Do you have a link to that BBC article.

 

[miami]

So, WHO say

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The main way the disease spreads is through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing. The risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low

Which certainly surprised me, and two others I just asked.

In which case the risk profile seems to be very very different.

 

[Howardh]

Have you got a quote for that, the BBC are quoting a study by experts.....?



How? The glass has at least been handled out of the dishwasher by someone, by the bar bod serving, and by whoever got the round in. And quite possibly handled round the top where you are about to put your mouth.

The glass is washed, rinsed and placed under the beer tap, held in the middle by the landlord. And there's no "rounds" as such. So my hands would be on where he touched, so washing them regularly should solve it? The top of the glass (drinking) should be sterile.

 

[Howardh]

So, WHO say

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
Which certainly surprised me, and two others I just asked.
In which case the risk profile seems to be very very different.

Think the bottom line is nobody really knows?? The one proven thing is those in good health have an extremely high chance of "surviving" but the important thing is to keep those away from the vulnerable. But many infected don't know they're infected??

 

[edwin_m]

WHO confirm this

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

Which seems to be odd when people are being asked to self quarantine even without any symptoms.

Could be they are worried that if someone goes out (perhaps especially when it's cold) their symptoms start up and they infect people before getting back home?

 

[Meerkat]

The self isolation was a natural reaction to something they didn’t understand. They are only suggesting there is no asymptomatic transmission based on the evidence - evidence they don’t have until they have enough weeks data.

 

[Howardh]

Just out of interest - has there been any case in the Arctic regions where it's too cold for viruses to spread (maybe even start) - or is that just an urban myth? If it's sub-zero could a virus simply freeze/hibernate only to kick-in when warmed up?

 

[Meerkat]

The glass is washed, rinsed and placed under the beer tap, held in the middle by the landlord. And there's no "rounds" as such. So my hands would be on where he touched, so washing them regularly should solve it? The top of the glass (drinking) should be sterile.

How do you know the staff have only held the middle all the way from washer to pouring? Tends to be lots of lovely moist spillage around the glass too, to help things get about.

 

[Howardh]

How do you know the staff have only held the middle all the way from washer to pouring? Tends to be lots of lovely moist spillage around the glass too, to help things get about.

Because I'm sat at the bar watching!!!
Good grief man, haven't you got more important stuff to worry about??