Coronavirus.

[Robin Edwards]

Looking at Italy stats vs South Korea stats on age. South Korea has far more cases detected in 20-29 year olds than any other age range. This could mean that 20-29s are not practicing social distancing as much as 30-39 or 10-19 year olds. There's big dip in 30-39 year olds. I suspect the reason for that is the number of 20-29s being sampled is far higher than other ranges.

In Italy, 40% of the population is under 40, but they account for just 11% of the cases. Another 11% are 40-49 (15% of population), and 40% are over 70.

Italy results mean either
1) Older people are in positions to meet infectious people (very unlikely generally older people being less likely to be on crowded public transport means older people are less likely to be in a position to be infected)
2) The virus spreads to older people far more easily (possible, but less likely given Korea's results)
3) The virus affects older people far worse, so they are more likely to have severe symptoms and be tested (in the west)

I think 3 is most likely. This suggests the percentages who have it will be far higher than thought, and backs up the government view on thursday that 5-10k people have (or have had) it already.

This bodes very well for survivability, however over 70s are still at high risk.

More evidence to back this idea is that most confirmed cases on the diamond princess were asymptomatic.

The difficulty with all of this as comparing data is flawed when different factors are at play. For instance, there has been far less testing here in UK than in other countries and hence there will be those in the younger demographic that don't bother to report or even notice some relatively minor symptoms. There will also be those that fear reporting their condition as it will impact them seriously in their finances and employment. Equally, the weak and most ill are dying all the time as BAU just as babies are being born in their 000s. Those that die ordinarily from complex conditions will not necessarily be tested for Viruses beyond a certain point.
Also of note, there is a baseline colds & influenza that will be at large in our population and suddenly we will want to add two and two and reach the conclusion that all new symptoms relate to Covid-19.
On a slight tangent, I find it depressing that many 000s of vulnerable people are dying unnecessarily from homelessness and austere conditions in UK over past ten years - 140000 if you believe the numbers cited at the last election. The point I'm making here is that no one seems to panic or care as the background data becomes 'normalised' in same way that 95000 firearm-related homicides per year doesn't get anyone out of their chair.

 

[Bantamzen]

Without sounding callous I do wonder how many of the people who are now being reported as Coronavirus “related” deaths would have died anyway, or certainly would have died from “normal” seasonal cold or flu. I understand the need for transparency but Coronavirus isn’t necessarily even the primary cause of these deaths.

After all 1500 people die in the UK every day and routine mortality hasn’t been suspended for Coronavirus.

This is something that is not yet known, and in some cases may never be known. But so far those that have died in this country having contracted the virus have all had pre-existing conditions.

 

[Robin Edwards]

From the other thread:



An interesting question is whether over 70s should be able to give an effective "do not resuscitate" instruction, i.e. refuse the quarantine on the basis that they will not receive NHS treatment if they do get it? If I was elderly and in poor health it might be a far better way to go than some of the other options, and there will be people who if they aren't taken out by this it'll be next winter's flu.

On a wider basis I'm already thinking about things like that (I'm only 40!) - what I mean is if I'm in hospital with it and I know there is a ventilator shortage should I decline one in favour of someone with children, say? It's a bit morbid but it's worth thinking about.

I'm not sure what rules apply but signing DNR forms is commonplace for those in conditions where quality of life is unlikely to improve. Not sure if age becomes a factor - don't see why it should really.
In the case of my father, he's pretty fit and will take some catching!

 

[Meerkat]

I'm not sure what rules apply but signing DNR forms is commonplace for those in conditions where quality of life is unlikely to improve. Not sure if age becomes a factor - don't see why it should really.
In the case of my father, he's pretty fit and will take some catching!

Chucking you on a ventilator wouldn’t be covered by DNR would it?
Think I was one of many kids to put their parents in an awkward situation - “why does it say DNR above Grandma’s bed Mum??”

 

[notlob.divad]

Anyone who is waiting for a non-urgent elective operation on the NHS is likely to have it cancelled/postponed

I am really surprised this has not already happened. People who have an operation are rarely discharged immediately. Creating some breathing room by postpoing elective surgery would be an obvious first step.

 

[trebor79]

What do people think of these theories about drinking regular fluids at an early stage helping to prevent the infection getting worse? Theory seems to be that it washes the virus into the stomach where the acid kills it. I know the WHO rejected this early on based on no scientific evidence, but interestingly the source came from a Japanese doctor, and Japan's case numbers have quietly dropped off after initially having a large outbreak, and I don't believe they have gone into lockdown unless I've missed something?

It's complete nonsense.

 

[cb a1]

Chucking you on a ventilator wouldn’t be covered by DNR would it?
Think I was one of many kids to put their parents in an awkward situation - “why does it say DNR above Grandma’s bed Mum??”

My Mum has been very open with everyone that she is DNR for the last decade since my Dad died. She also wants her body to go to medical research.

It was difficult at first, but I'm glad we've had all these conversations about dying.

 

[Mag_seven]

What do people think of these theories about drinking regular fluids at an early stage helping to prevent the infection getting worse? Theory seems to be that it washes the virus into the stomach where the acid kills it. I know the WHO rejected this early on based on no scientific evidence, but interestingly the source came from a Japanese doctor, and Japan's case numbers have quietly dropped off after initially having a large outbreak, and I don't believe they have gone into lockdown unless I've missed something?

Number 5 on the BBC list of fake health advices:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51735367

5. Drinking water every 15 minutes
One post, copied and pasted by multiple Facebook accounts, quotes a "Japanese doctor" who recommends drinking water every 15 minutes to flush out any virus that might have entered the mouth. A version in Arabic has been shared more than 250,000 times.

Professor Trudie Lang at the University of Oxford says there is "no biological mechanism" that would support the idea that you can just wash a respiratory virus down into your stomach and kill it.

Infections like coronaviruses enter the body via the respiratory tract when you breathe in. Some of them might go into your mouth, but even constantly drinking water isn't going to prevent you from catching the virus.

Nonetheless, drinking water and staying hydrated is generally good medical advice.

 

[DarloRich]

Blethcley station at 8am this morning was ultra quiet. More like 7 am on a Saturday. The 0800 to Euston is 12 cars and almost always rammed. Today the back 4 cars were almost empty. It looks like people have taken decisions to protect themselves outside of anything the government have suggested.

The roads in central MK were incredibly quiet. There is a very odd feeling. I wonder if people still think this is all a massive over reaction.

 

[Momo and diggy]

Number 5 on the BBC list of fake health advices:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51735367

What's no 1 is it buy a mask or obtain a huge supply of loo roll.

 

[Bantamzen]

Blethcley station at 8am this morning was ultra quiet. More like 7 am on a Saturday. The 0800 to Euston is 12 cars and almost always rammed. Today the back 4 cars were almost empty. It looks like people have taken decisions to protect themselves outside of anything the government have suggested.

The roads in central MK were incredibly quiet. There is a very odd feeling. I wonder if people still think this is all a massive over reaction.

The 07:00 Leeds to Kings Cross (ex 06:30 from Bradford FS) which is usually full at Leeds was practically empty this morning, and Leeds itself was much quieter. And having already heard on the grapevine that we (as in my team) should expect to work from home soon, I overheard a teacher on his way home this afternoon tell someone that they were expecting the schools to close soon for an extended Easter period. I expect the PMs daily briefing will fill in a few more blanks, but the emergency bill being prepared for tomorrow (I believe) will probably signal a ramp-up.

So round two of panic-buying is just around the corner. I'm going to panic buy..... ummmm.... cous-cous, olives, easter eggs.... Oh and beer & wine... Lots & lots of beer & wine... Well I don't have far to commute when I work from home, so a hangover isn't going to seem as bad...

 

[AndrewE]

I'm not trying to panic buy or hoard stuff, it's just time to buy some more sweet peppers (or a bag of frozen ones) and another few bags of bread flour... all completely sold out - together with spuds, also all the frozen veg! Lots of empty areas of shelving in Sainsbury's.
SWMBO wonders whether people are actually ramping up eating meals at home made from fresh ingredients instead of going out or getting takeaways, so there has been a change of behaviour leading to a step-change in demand.

 

[bussnapperwm]

Advice one employer has told its staff internally (won't say which to protect the person who sent it me)

If I'm concerned about contracting coronavirus, do I still have to attend work?

In cases of vulnerable employees e.g. employees with respiratory problems, poor immune systems or pregnant employees you should speak to your manager about annual or unpaid leave if homeworking is not practicable.

So effectively what said employer is saying is that effectively those who are vulnerable and can't home work such as those who have to meet customers in their houses or dealing with customer service enquiries and is following the latest advice from the government about self isolating will have to go without pay?

 

[bahnause]

Major cutbacks in public transport in Switzerland:

Current information on rail services
Switzerland’s public-transport offer will be reduced step by step as of Thursday, 19 March 2020. The switch to the new, reduced timetable will take until the middle of next week. The online timetable will be updated continuously. SBB and PostBus recommend that you check the timetable in good time on www.sbb.ch or in the SBB Mobile App. The rail service situation is being continuously monitored. Here you can find a summary of all up-to-date information.

• Core public transport provision and connections to essential locations such as hospitals and food shops will be maintained. There will however be cancellations, delays and missed connections. The online timetable will always be kept up-to-date.
  
  
• Service on tourist routes that do not connect settlements as well as extra and heritage services have be cancelled.
  
  
• Late evening connections at weekends will be suspended. No replacement transport will be provided. Long-distance trains will generally run hourly rather than half-hourly. The first and last connections on weekdays are not affected by these restrictions, as they are important for providing connectivity for Switzerland and its regions.
  
  
• Regional Services: Regional train and bus services which currently run every 15 minutes will run half-hourly from Thursday; services which currently run half-hourly will run hourly. No 15-minute frequencies will thus be provided from now on. This does not include the first and last connections of the day – which will be offered to enable early and late shifts, for example in the health service. Additional S-Bahn trains at peak times (06:00 to 09:00 and 16:00 to 19:00) and night services at weekends will not run.
  

Public transport offer between Switzerland and neighbouring countries severely reduced
International long-distance services will only run to border stations. Passengers will have to change there to continue their journey abroad. The details are as follows:

• EC trains towards Italy will terminate at Chiasso and Brig.
  
  
• ICE trains towards Germany will terminate at Basel SBB.
  
  
• The Zürich HB–Stuttgart EC will terminate at Schaffhausen.
  
  
• TGV Lyria trains will terminate at Basel SBB and Genève.
  
  
• Railjet services to Austria have been suspended.
  
  
• All Nightjet overnight services have been suspended.
  
  
• Zürich-München EC trains and IC buses have been suspended.
  

Unfortunately, not all connections can be guaranteed. All border stations will be served by core long-distance and regional services. Trains from border stations will continue to run on the Swiss sections of their routes as long as they are not affected by changes to the national long-distance service offer.

Cross-border regional trains, such as for example the Léman Express in the Geneva area, will continue to run, since they serve an important role in connecting agglomerations close to the border. In line with regional services within Switzerland, these trains will generally run half-hourly rather than every 15 minutes from Thursday.

 

[Spamcan81]

Without sounding callous I do wonder how many of the people who are now being reported as Coronavirus “related” deaths would have died anyway, or certainly would have died from “normal” seasonal cold or flu. I understand the need for transparency but Coronavirus isn’t necessarily even the primary cause of these deaths.

After all 1500 people die in the UK every day and routine mortality hasn’t been suspended for Coronavirus.

A customer of mine is a doctor at a leading hospital and he's annoyed with the way things are being reported. He said that in two cases that he had info on, both people has sufficient health problems to "put them in the morgue" without coronavirus being involved.

 

[Mogster]

A customer of mine is a doctor at a leading hospital and he's annoyed with the way things are being reported. He said that in two cases that he had info on, both people has sufficient health problems to "put them in the morgue" without coronavirus being involved.

Hmmm. That was my suspicion.

 

[The Ham]

How do you actually enforce quarantine in a society like ours anyway. You can close “non essential” businesses like restaurants, bars and sports clubs but after that? People need to buy food and essentials, people need to work to supply these life essentials and healthcare.

The absolute last thing you want is civil unrest... There’s a video circulating of British holidaymakers and expats arguing with the Spanish police in Benidorm... Close the bars if you feel it’s necessary but what’s the purpose of aggressively preventing people walking on the beach in March?

Indeed, any major lockdown attempt would be fairly poorly adhered to, at least for now.

There's probably a good argument that people will adhere to it more of they personally know someone who has suffered or died from the virus. Whilst it's still ~20 people out of local population of ~1.5 million, people will likely think "there's so few who have it that I'll not get it".

However once it's closer to 10% then people will be more cautious and would probably adhere to the lockdown more willingly.

 

[yorkie]

How do you actually enforce quarantine in a society like ours anyway. You can close “non essential” businesses like restaurants, bars and sports clubs but after that? People need to buy food and essentials, people need to work to supply these life essentials and healthcare.

The absolute last thing you want is civil unrest... There’s a video circulating of British holidaymakers and expats arguing with the Spanish police in Benidorm... Close the bars if you feel it’s necessary but what’s the purpose of aggressively preventing people walking on the beach in March?

Indeed. And being outdoors in a wide open space is good for health.

In other news, schools currently look set to stay open:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-51643556

At the moment, the government is advising schools to stay open. However, it "may be necessary" to close them in the future, according to the government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance.

The UK's approach is that children are not as vulnerable to the effects of coronavirus as adults.

The government is also concerned that closing schools would cause widespread disruption.

Many parents - including much-needed NHS staff - would have to take time off work to look after their children.

And there are concerns that if grandparents - a vulnerable group - were drafted in to help with childcare, infected children could transmit the disease to them.

There are also fears that vulnerable children, such as those in danger of neglect, could be at risk if schools were closed for a long period of time.

This is definitely the right move. Anyone who thinks it isn't probably has no experience and little if any knowledge of schools. I have experience of working in a school and I think it would be madness to close schools, for the reasons stated in the article above.

 

[Grumpy Git]

Indeed. And being outdoors in a wide open space is good for health.

In other news, schools currently look set to stay open:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-51643556

This is definitely the right move. Anyone who thinks it isn't probably has no experience and little if any knowledge of schools. I have experience of working in a school and I think it would be madness to close schools, for the reasons stated in the article above.

Its madness to close schools because the majority of British parents see teachers as free babysitters.

 

[yorkie]

Its madness to close schools because the majority of British parents see teachers as free babysitters.

I don't understand what your point is.

 

[DarloRich]

well this situation just got very real didn't it. Perhaps it is all an over reaction.

EDIT - lets not mess about. This is serious. We need to look after each other so lets keep in touch and support each other. Deal?

 

[tsr]

Indeed. And being outdoors in a wide open space is good for health.

Quite. Can’t recommend a good walk highly enough for mental wellbeing. I note the Beeb have emphasised that if people are self-isolating then they are still allowed out for exercise, away from others.

(I have a large amount of rural National Trust woodland on my doorstep and I’m now even more grateful that it’s there. I recommend everyone takes advantage of this sort of space and makes a donation to its upkeep, if & when they can.)

 

[Ianno87]

Its madness to close schools because the majority of British parents see teachers as free babysitters.

Please outline your alternative proposal for parents going to work and paying tax.

Or, failing that, just be quiet.

 

[bramling]

Indeed. And being outdoors in a wide open space is good for health.

In other news, schools currently look set to stay open:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-51643556

This is definitely the right move. Anyone who thinks it isn't probably has no experience and little if any knowledge of schools. I have experience of working in a school and I think it would be madness to close schools, for the reasons stated in the article above.

I agree it seems like the right thing, but we have to hope the powers that be have it right that children are at low risk. We have to realise that it seems at this stage the powers that be are having to make a best guess, and we have to realise there’s the possibility they may get things wrong.

Meanwhile if the school staff start getting the virus then closing schools won’t be a decision but a necessity.

 

[yorkie]

Its madness to close schools because the majority of British parents see teachers as free babysitters.

I think some people don't have the slightest idea of the impact of what goes on inside schools.

For example, has anyone ever had someone say to them "this is where my Dad lives... not that he has ever done anything for me?" and whose only male role models are school staff?

Or someone who was born a girl but wants to be a boy say that they can't have their wish for their chosen name to be on the registers because their Mum doesn't agree to it? But that when teachers call them by their chosen name, that makes them smile.

Or have you met kids who are unable to ever see their father again because their father has done something so bad that not even school staff know what he has done and who went from being a good kid to getting into loads of trouble and has a feeling of hopelessness but is being helped and encouraged to get back to normality by the school?

What about special needs kids whose parents would not be able to cope if they were with them 24/7?

What about kids who tell you they have no friends outside school and no siblings and don't want the summer holidays to start?

I've got experience of working in the NHS, education and the private sector. The pay can be far higher in the public sector, with the NHS somewhere in the middle, and the pay in education is pretty dire. But the difference staff who work in education can make is far greater than most people realise.

If anyone is any doubt, then I would urge you to read/listen to Richard McCann's story ( https://www.richardmccann.co.uk/ )

If schools close completely or for vulnerable/needy students then I would struggle to believe it could possibly be the correct decision (and if anyone disagrees with me, I'd be happy to have the full argument, not just the 5 minute argument)

 

[bramling]

Indeed, any major lockdown attempt would be fairly poorly adhered to, at least for now.

There's probably a good argument that people will adhere to it more of they personally know someone who has suffered or died from the virus. Whilst it's still ~20 people out of local population of ~1.5 million, people will likely think "there's so few who have it that I'll not get it".

However once it's closer to 10% then people will be more cautious and would probably adhere to the lockdown more willingly.

I think people will adhere to begin with, but there’s a problem that boredom will quite possibly set in. Then there’s the big problem of what happens with work - some people won’t be being paid for one reason or another, which is going to impose a different sort of pressure. I’m glad I don’t work in the hospitality industry at this moment.

 

[Grumpy Git]

I think some people don't have the slightest idea of the impact of what goes on inside schools.

For example, has anyone ever had someone say to them "this is where my Dad lives... not that he has ever done anything for me?" and whose only male role models are school staff?

Or someone who was born a girl but wants to be a boy say that they can't have their wish for their chosen name to be on the registers because their Mum doesn't agree to it? But that when teachers call them by their chosen name, that makes them smile.

Or have you met kids who are unable to ever see their father again because their father has done something so bad that not even school staff know what he has done and who went from being a good kid to getting into loads of trouble and has a feeling of hopelessness but is being helped and encouraged to get back to normality by the school?

What about special needs kids whose parents would not be able to cope if they were with them 24/7?

What about kids who tell you they have no friends outside school and no siblings and don't want the summer holidays to start?

I've got experience of working in the NHS, education and the private sector. The pay can be far higher in the public sector, with the NHS somewhere in the middle, and the pay in education is pretty dire. But the difference staff who work in education can make is far greater than most people realise.

If anyone is any doubt, then I would urge you to read/listen to Richard McCann's story ( https://www.richardmccann.co.uk/ )

If schools close completely or for vulnerable/needy students then I would struggle to believe it could possibly be the correct decision (and if anyone disagrees with me, I'd be happy to have the full argument, not just the 5 minute argument)

Well said

 

[Darandio]

The people clamouring for schools to close are missing several very important points.

One important one is that a large number of families rely on free school meals to feed their children during the day. Having the children sent home for a long period that they cannot budget for will put immense strain on their already poor financial situation. These people sometimes rely on food banks, some of which are now starting to cut back or even close due to a lack of food.

The consequences could be catastrophic.

 

[bramling]

The people clamouring for schools to close are missing several very important points.

One important one is that a large number of families rely on free school meals to feed their children during the day. Having the children sent home for a long period that they cannot budget for will put immense strain on their already poor financial situation. These people sometimes rely on food banks, some of which are now starting to cut back or even close due to a lack of food.

The consequences could be catastrophic.

Unfortunately this does demonstrate the value in having savings to fall back on in a time of crisis.

For many years little or no emphasis has been placed on encouraging or assisting people to save.

 

[Antman]

The people clamouring for schools to close are missing several very important points.

One important one is that a large number of families rely on free school meals to feed their children during the day. Having the children sent home for a long period that they cannot budget for will put immense strain on their already poor financial situation. These people sometimes rely on food banks, some of which are now starting to cut back or even close due to a lack of food.

The consequences could be catastrophic.

And there will be latchkey kids left to fend for themselves because parents are at work and all the potential problems that will cause or kids will go out and mix with their friends which rather defeats the purpose of closing schools.