Robin Edwards
Member
- Joined
- 1 Dec 2013
- Messages
- 370
Looking at Italy stats vs South Korea stats on age. South Korea has far more cases detected in 20-29 year olds than any other age range. This could mean that 20-29s are not practicing social distancing as much as 30-39 or 10-19 year olds. There's big dip in 30-39 year olds. I suspect the reason for that is the number of 20-29s being sampled is far higher than other ranges.
In Italy, 40% of the population is under 40, but they account for just 11% of the cases. Another 11% are 40-49 (15% of population), and 40% are over 70.
Italy results mean either
1) Older people are in positions to meet infectious people (very unlikely generally older people being less likely to be on crowded public transport means older people are less likely to be in a position to be infected)
2) The virus spreads to older people far more easily (possible, but less likely given Korea's results)
3) The virus affects older people far worse, so they are more likely to have severe symptoms and be tested (in the west)
I think 3 is most likely. This suggests the percentages who have it will be far higher than thought, and backs up the government view on thursday that 5-10k people have (or have had) it already.
This bodes very well for survivability, however over 70s are still at high risk.
More evidence to back this idea is that most confirmed cases on the diamond princess were asymptomatic.
The difficulty with all of this as comparing data is flawed when different factors are at play. For instance, there has been far less testing here in UK than in other countries and hence there will be those in the younger demographic that don't bother to report or even notice some relatively minor symptoms. There will also be those that fear reporting their condition as it will impact them seriously in their finances and employment. Equally, the weak and most ill are dying all the time as BAU just as babies are being born in their 000s. Those that die ordinarily from complex conditions will not necessarily be tested for Viruses beyond a certain point.
Also of note, there is a baseline colds & influenza that will be at large in our population and suddenly we will want to add two and two and reach the conclusion that all new symptoms relate to Covid-19.
On a slight tangent, I find it depressing that many 000s of vulnerable people are dying unnecessarily from homelessness and austere conditions in UK over past ten years - 140000 if you believe the numbers cited at the last election. The point I'm making here is that no one seems to panic or care as the background data becomes 'normalised' in same way that 95000 firearm-related homicides per year doesn't get anyone out of their chair.