Could Grand Union Trains proposed London Euston to Stirling service be viable?

[Bald Rick]

If I was ORR I would grant the rights from Stirling to Carlisle, on condition that the trains run for at least 10 years. That should be enough to stop any more proposals.

 

[Class 170101]

If I was ORR I would grant the rights from Stirling to Carlisle, on condition that the trains run for at least 10 years. That should be enough to stop any more proposals.

As much as I see your point I have to disagree as it prevents viable services over said section of line or part thereof. For example Liverpool or Manchester to Glasgow or Edinburgh which I think we can agree may be of more value than the Open Access Proposal.

It should be said there is probably a small market for links between Central North Scotland and Central South Scotland / NW England but I would say as part of a franchise as proposed by First in 2012 rather than a standalone franchise.

 

[hexagon789]

https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/41688/grand-union-trains-notification-form.pdf

Another service from Grand Union Trains:



Any thoughts?

Yes, I think we need more of this kind of thing and to scrap the stupid revenue abstraction rules - then we can have some actual competition rather than this namby-pamby 'you can run another service but only if you call at these stations so you don't nick the bigwigs money' nonsense.

I wish Grand Union well with this but I think 9-coaches is a bit much. Seven as with Blackpool would suffice.

 

[MarkWiles]

Can't see how a service timed at 110mph with several stops will raid ORCATS from Carlisle and Preston, or doesn't ORCATS still favour the fastest journeys between points in terms of revenue allocation?

 

[DanNCL]

I strongly suspect that this latest proposal from them, along with the Cardiff and Southampton proposals, rather than being serious proposals are attempts to get stations included in their applications a better service to/from London. For the Cardiff services I wouldn't be surprised if the sole purpose of putting in the application is an attempt to get GWR London services to call at Severn Tunnel Junction rather than it being a serious proposal, and for this I wouldn't be surprised if the aim was to get a more frequent London service at Stirling rather than a serious proposal to actually operate such a service themselves. Of course I could be wrong, but that's the impression I'm getting from these various open access applications from Grand Union Trains and Alliance Rail.

 

[Starmill]

The TPE services are hardly full to bursting

In what sense? Have I imagined all the times I've travelled on them when they've been full and standing? In 2016 the 1800 from Manchester Airport was booked 8 cars on Fridays and would always be all seats taken leaving Preston

 

[Mag_seven]

IAN YEOWART is the man your talking about. Previously responsible from Grand Central and Alliance Rail Holdings

He is certainly not popular amongst many on here for some reason.

 

[hexagon789]

I strongly suspect that this latest proposal from them, along with the Cardiff and Southampton proposals, rather than being serious proposals are attempts to get stations included in their applications a better service to/from London. For the Cardiff services I wouldn't be surprised if the sole purpose of putting in the application is an attempt to get GWR London services to call at Severn Tunnel Junction rather than it being a serious proposal, and for this I wouldn't be surprised if the aim was to get a more frequent London service at Stirling rather than a serious proposal to actually operate such a service themselves. Of course I could be wrong, but that's the impression I'm getting from these various open access applications from Grand Union Trains and Alliance Rail.

It may well be the case, but if the side effect of these applications is an improved London service at many secondary stations on main routes or at stations on lesser served routes from London, that can't be a bad thing.

Certainly Stirling deserves a few more London services.

 

[gingerheid]

Stirling to Carlisle (and London) 3 or 4 times a day? If it was something with two carriages going as far as Motherwell I could maybe see it working.

 

[hexagon789]

Stirling to Carlisle (and London) 3 or 4 times a day? If it was something with two carriages going as far as Motherwell I could maybe see it working.

158s?

It's been done before (sort of)!

 

[gingerheid]

I meant as far as Motherwell from Stirling, not London!

Really though. I like a direct service as much as anyone and more than some, but the way to give Stirling a link to the WCML is either to have regular WCML trains to Edinburgh or to extend the Milngavie - Cumbernauld service to Stirling, not a modern day Clansman!

We should have a new trivia thread. Biggest town that Grand Union hasn't proposed a service to.

 

[The Ham]

I meant as far as Motherwell from Stirling, not London!

Really though. I like a direct service as much as anyone and more than some, but the way to give Stirling a link to the WCML is either to have regular WCML trains to Edinburgh or to extend the Milngavie - Cumbernauld service to Stirling, not a modern day Clansman!

We should have a new trivia thread. Biggest town that Grand Union hasn't proposed a service to.

There's also a fairly strong contender for a thread for smallest settlement which has been proposed to serve.

 

[hooverboy]

Nice!

Shame a 9 coach service is too long to call at Sunny-D. It would be amazing to stand at Euston and wait for the Dunblane Train.

cl91 sets off lease and available, mk 4 rake length is arbitrary.

 

[Bald Rick]

In what sense? Have I imagined all the times I've travelled on them when they've been full and standing? In 2016 the 1800 from Manchester Airport was booked 8 cars on Fridays and would always be all seats taken leaving Preston

Well obviously some of the trains are busy, and Friday pm is an obviously busy time. I’d be willing to bet that the first southbound train each morning isn’t full and standing though.

 

[whhistle]

I'd agree about problems over revenue abstraction at Carlisle, Preston and Crewe, which is probably the main aim of the proposal.

Question:

When does "revenue abstraction" become "healthy competition"?

 

[The Planner]

He is certainly not popular amongst many on here for some reason.

Knowing people that have had to deal with these plans and having been on the periphery of them in the past, some of it is quite justified!

 

[Esker-pades]

I would have thought that there would be a significant demand for travel from the growing population in central Scotland to places on the WCML.
BTW, about 50 years ago the 12.00 from Glasgow was joined at Carstairs by a portion from Perth - the only train to call at Coatbridge Sunnyside, I think.

Coatbridge Central, surely? Sunnyside is on the North Clyde Line.

 

[InOban]

Coatbridge Central, surely? Sunnyside is on the North Clyde Line.

Oops, forgot which was which!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Question:
When does "revenue abstraction" become "healthy competition"?

There's some analysis of this on the ORR site for the Alliance application for Blackpool services, but the upshot was it only just scraped through the qualification.
I imagine this application is a bit of a test of the updated open access rules, and the commercial framework of the new WC franchise.
It also impinges on HS2 planning for the northern WCML.
OA operators are now supposed to pay a share of the underlying costs of the route, rather than just the incremental costs of their services.
We don't know what the commercial terms are for First Trenitalia yet, or what OA assumptions might have been anticipated in the bid.
The WCML already has an "alternate operator" on its whole length apart from Crewe-Warrington-Wigan, though FT is now in the same camp as TPE.
It looks as though Alliance want a full hourly path from Preston to London, shared between Blackpool/Stirling services.
You wouldn't think a 9-car IC225 solution would work north of Preston.
5-car EMUs doubling up south of Preston would be a better fit, or even repurposed 350/2s.

 

[HLE]

Insert standard not gonna happen statement here.

The grand question I have is will any of these companies actually ever run a service? All it seems to be is applications. Is the fee too low for these applications because to me all its doing is wasting time.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Question:

When does "revenue abstraction" become "healthy competition"?

According to the ORR an operate MUST generate at least 30p of new revenue for every £1 abstracted from an existing operator to pass the NPA test.

 

[Aictos]

You wouldn't think a 9-car IC225 solution would work north of Preston.
5-car EMUs doubling up south of Preston would be a better fit, or even repurposed 350/2s.

The Class 350/2s refurbished to Class 350/3 or Class 350/4 interiors would be a good fit especially as they can operate at 110mph which would help with pathing.

 

[trebor79]

I strongly suspect that this latest proposal from them, along with the Cardiff and Southampton proposals, rather than being serious proposals are attempts to get stations included in their applications a better service to/from London. For the Cardiff services I wouldn't be surprised if the sole purpose of putting in the application is an attempt to get GWR London services to call at Severn Tunnel Junction rather than it being a serious proposal, and for this I wouldn't be surprised if the aim was to get a more frequent London service at Stirling rather than a serious proposal to actually operate such a service themselves. Of course I could be wrong, but that's the impression I'm getting from these various open access applications from Grand Union Trains and Alliance Rail.

What would be the motivation for doing that? It's not going to benefit the company making the application at all?

 

[Roast Veg]

How much does it cost to submit these applications?

 

[d9009alycidon]

For the record, the daytime services through Coatbridge Central just prior to electrification was a Perth to Carstairs mid-morning service, a Carlisle to Perth afternoon service that went through about 3pm and the famous 1S81 20:50 Carlisle to Perth evening service, thre was at least one Sleeper in each direction as well. After electrification the morning service was discontinued and the Clansman called in each direction.

 

[RealTrains07]

Blackpool coming Spring 2020. And First Group’s plans for a second hourly service to Liverpool has probably killed Virgin’s plans off. Stirling may have some new market but again First Groups plans to increase stops at Motherwell and Milton Keynes may have meant some significant abstraction.

Wouldn’t be surprised if First second liverpool service was because of virgins plans. Their are other services that need more trains not liverpool. That path could surely be put to better use?

If blackpool to london is possible with the current amount of trains on the WCML then surely their the arguments that their is space is just all about how the service is timetabled. Surely direct services to london from places like Stirling are more of a priority than extra services to motherwell? Does it have demand?

 

[d9009alycidon]

The proposal might have just been workable had they opted for a Stirling to Carlisle service using something a little shorter, it also would also cause less congestion by going via Holytown and Wishaw, this cutting out the bottleneck at Motherwell. by using short formed HSTs Scotrail style they could also extend to Perth

 

[ScotsRail]

If this is terminating/starting from Stirling then it would surely have to be based out of the terminating platform at the far side of the station.

 

[hexagon789]

Their are other services that need more trains not liverpool. That path could surely be put to better use?

No better use than making Liverpool twice hourly. Birmingham and Manchester are already 3 trains an hour, Glasgow is 1 or 2.

Liverpool is next in line for improvements as I see it.

 

[Roose]

Can't see how a service timed at 110mph with several stops will raid ORCATS from Carlisle and Preston, or doesn't ORCATS still favour the fastest journeys between points in terms of revenue allocation?

People from Carlisle and Preston use the Birmingham services to Euston to benefit from cheaper fares than on the direct route; they may do the same if fares on a GU service are below the usual market price.