Could LNER services cease operating north of Edinburgh?

[paul1609]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/scotrail-abellio-and-april.229604/

Perhaps the way forward is for Dft OLR trains to give the Scottish Government 5 years notice that they intend to withdraw their LNER branded trains from North of Edinburgh?

It doesn't really make any sense to have full length intercity 140mph trains trundling around Scottish Branch lines.

 

[AMD]

It doesnt really make any sense to have full length intercity 140mph trains trundling around Scottish Branch lines.

I think you'll find those residents that use the Highland MAIN LINE find it useful to have a connection with the rest of the country.
Additionally there is a large volume of tourists that use this route (KX - Inverness), so there is a demand.

 

[Davester50]

Perhaps the way forward is for Dft OLR trains to give the Scottish Government 5 years notice that they intend to withdraw their LNER branded trains from North of Edinburgh? It doesnt really make any sense to have full length intercity 140mph trains trundling around Scottish Branch lines.

As a fishing post, that's a cracker!

 

[Wynd]

"Branch Lines". That's some nice bate.

 

[Blindtraveler]

If you cast your main back to sometime early in the last parliament as in holyrood, there were very serious proposals mooted that would have seen all intercity services terminating at or not very far from the border, suspect in practice they would probably have all made it to Edinburgh and Glasgow but anything running beyond that point was very seriously considered for removal by the Scottish government and ScotRail would have taken up the slack. Not only would this idea have been in my view political suicide but given the current state of chaos that the service is in in I don't think that as it stands it would have coped with the volume's carried by 5x LNER and 2X cross-country to sorted north of Edinburgh destinations as well as what was at the time of thriving Edinburgh Glasgow Central via Motherwell XC service, sadly since defunct apart from a few in the morning and evening


I do not think that this idea should be be in anyway dusted down and given another earring and other than discussions amongst enthusiasts because it would really deliver a fairly hefty hammer blow for for the rail industry as a whole, imagine as someone said above your average Joe tourists deciding they wanted a week in the Highlands and remembering that they could get on her train at king's cross and sit there for 9 hours while it got them to Inverness. Great advert for the sleeper I suppose but also an equally good one for easyJet

 

[paul1609]

If you cast your main back to sometime early in the last parliament as in holyrood, there were very serious proposals mooted that would have seen all intercity services terminating at or not very far from the border, suspect in practice they would probably have all made it to Edinburgh and Glasgow but anything running beyond that point was very seriously considered for removal by the Scottish government and ScotRail would have taken up the slack. Not only would this idea have been in my view political suicide but given the current state of chaos that the service is in in I don't think that as it stands it would have coped with the volume's carried by 5x LNER and 2X cross-country to sorted north of Edinburgh destinations as well as what was at the time of thriving Edinburgh Glasgow Central via Motherwell XC service, sadly since defunct apart from a few in the morning and evening


I do not think that this idea should be be in anyway dusted down and given another earring and other than discussions amongst enthusiasts because it would really deliver a fairly hefty hammer blow for for the rail industry as a whole, imagine as someone said above your average Joe tourists deciding they wanted a week in the Highlands and remembering that they could get on her train at king's cross and sit there for 9 hours while it got them to Inverness. Great advert for the sleeper I suppose but also an equally good one for easyJet

On the up service they could get off the Chieftain at Aviemore, do a return trip on the Strathspey Railway, return to Inverness have lunch, bus to the airport, Easyjet to Luton, Thameslink to St Pancras, an hour in the Champagne bar before bimbling across to King's Cross to see the the train they left Inverness in finally arrive in London.

 

[cle]

Perhaps the way forward is for Dft OLR trains to give the Scottish Government 5 years notice that they intend to withdraw their LNER branded trains from North of Edinburgh? It doesnt really make any sense to have full length intercity 140mph trains trundling around Scottish Branch lines.

Where do they run at 140mph?

 

[ld0595]

Where do they run at 140mph?

They don't run anywhere at 140mph but are capable of it if the necessary infrastructure upgrades are done IIRC.

 

[cle]

They don't run anywhere at 140mph but are capable of it if the necessary infrastructure upgrades are done IIRC.

Which could in theory be north of Edinburgh as well as south, i.e. nowhere right now, so a moot point.

Stock max capability is not really too relevant - seen TGV speed records for instance?

 

[43096]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/scotrail-abellio-and-april.229604/

Perhaps the way forward is for Dft OLR trains to give the Scottish Government 5 years notice that they intend to withdraw their LNER branded trains from North of Edinburgh?

It doesn't really make any sense to have full length intercity 140mph trains trundling around Scottish Branch lines.

Did the use of HST sets to Aberdeen escape your notice since 1978, or to Inverness from 1984? Do you also think we shouldn't be running IET sets beyond Bristol as the Bristol-Cardiff-Swansea "branch line" and the routes to Plymouth and Penzance aren't passed for 125mph or above?

 

[hexagon789]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/scotrail-abellio-and-april.229604/

Perhaps the way forward is for Dft OLR trains to give the Scottish Government 5 years notice that they intend to withdraw their LNER branded trains from North of Edinburgh?

It doesn't really make any sense to have full length intercity 140mph trains trundling around Scottish Branch lines.

Even though the Aberdeen through services have existed for over 50 years, and the Inverness for 38?

They are well-used both internally and by through passengers.

Perhaps XC should terminate everything at Edinburgh as well?

Perhaps the Caledonian sleeper should only run to Glasgow and Edinburgh?

If the LNER extensions were not well-used I would be more sympathetic, but they are so what on earth would culling them achieve other than overcrowding, an even more acute strain on ScotRail's fleet and more awkward through journeys from north of Edinburgh into England?

LNER are not short of Azumas, even allowing for the "cracks" issues.

 

[Falcon1200]

It doesn't really make any sense to have full length intercity 140mph trains trundling around Scottish Branch lines.

Perhaps there should be a balance in that the Scottish Government's Caledonian Sleepers should cease operating south of Carlisle, it doesn't really make any sense to have 16-coach trains with a handful of passengers trundling along England's Premier Line getting in the way of other trains and blocking platforms at Euston in the morning peak ?

Perhaps the Caledonian sleeper should only run to Glasgow and Edinburgh?

I would grant them access to Carlisle at least !

 

[paul1609]

Unfortunately the context that this was posted in, ie that the LNER services were extracting revenue from ScotRail and that ScotRail/ Scottish Govt were trying to fight back with the HSTs has been lost in the moderating teams decision to split this in to a completely different section.

 

[class26]

Even though the Aberdeen through services have existed for over 50 years, and the Inverness for 38?

They are well-used both internally and by through passengers.

Perhaps XC should terminate everything at Edinburgh as well?

Perhaps the Caledonian sleeper should only run to Glasgow and Edinburgh?

If the LNER extensions were not well-used I would be more sympathetic, but they are so what on earth would culling them achieve other than overcrowding, an even more acute strain on ScotRail's fleet and more awkward through journeys from north of Edinburgh into England?

LNER are not short of Azumas, even allowing for the "cracks" issues.

They must be short of azumas as they re looking for 10 additional trains

 

[43096]

Unfortunately the context that this was posted in, ie that the LNER services were extracting revenue from ScotRail and that ScotRail/ Scottish Govt were trying to fight back with the HSTs has been lost in the moderating teams decision to split this in to a completely different section.

Is that the sound of reverse gear being selected? I don't think we need any "context" - you plainly described the Aberdeen and Inverness lines as "branch lines".

 

[Falcon1200]

Unfortunately the context that this was posted in, ie that the LNER services were extracting revenue from ScotRail and that ScotRail/ Scottish Govt were trying to fight back with the HSTs has been lost in the moderating teams decision to split this in to a completely different section.

Perhaps, but calling the Edinburgh/Aberdeen and Edinburgh/Inverness routes 'Scottish Branch lines' was unlikely to result in a serious discussion....

 

[skyhigh]

They must be short of azumas as they re looking for 10 additional trains

Are the additional trains not to replace the remaining 91s?

 

[hexagon789]

I would grant them access to Carlisle at least !

Too generous surely?

They must be short of azumas as they re looking for 10 additional trains

Without the timetable improvements they have more trains now than in pure HST/225 days. I understood the 10 extra trains were for additional services, or rather they would do the Edinburgh fasts and free up other trains for additional services.

If you count the five-car Azumas as equal to 9-car, then you have 61 full length trainsets presently including seven IC225s, though of course all 7 are not used currently.

Back in the days when LNER had only HSTs and 225s, they had only 44 full length sets.

So they have 17 more full length (9 or 10 coach) trainsets. Hardly a shortage.

 

[RT4038]

Unfortunately the context that this was posted in, ie that the LNER services were extracting revenue from ScotRail and that ScotRail/ Scottish Govt were trying to fight back with the HSTs has been lost in the moderating teams decision to split this in to a completely different section.

From a quick glance at the timetable, it looks to me that the LNER services north of Edinburgh tie up one trainset - all the others being early and late services formed of trains starting or finishing their day's work on the ECML south of Edinburgh.

So the question Scotrail/TS will be asking themselves is - (a) is the extra revenue that they think they will gain by running these trains themselves going to pay for the lease of additional trains* to cover these trips [I m assuming that Scotrail have none sitting spare to cover this eventuality] taking into account the loss of some passengers with the loss of through facility? and (b) is it worth the political fallout with the loss of the through trains?

*bearing in mind the capacity the current through trains are moving.

I would suggest that the answer to both is no. I also think that the HST being a 'fight back' against LNER etc as a little fanciful - the reasons are more likely to be relieving overcrowding on their own (previous) trains, and to compete with the highly successful inter-city coach operations, the likes of which are not seen in England & Wales.

 

[paul1609]

From a quick glance at the timetable, it looks to me that the LNER services north of Edinburgh tie up one trainset - all the others being early and late services formed of trains starting or finishing their day's work on the ECML south of Edinburgh.

So the question Scotrail/TS will be asking themselves is - (a) is the extra revenue that they think they will gain by running these trains themselves going to pay for the lease of additional trains* to cover these trips [I m assuming that Scotrail have none sitting spare to cover this eventuality] taking into account the loss of some passengers with the loss of through facility? and (b) is it worth the political fallout with the loss of the through trains?

*bearing in mind the capacity the current through trains are moving.

I would suggest that the answer to both is no. I also think that the HST being a 'fight back' against LNER etc as a little fanciful - the reasons are more likely to be relieving overcrowding on their own (previous) trains, and to compete with the highly successful inter-city coach operations, the likes of which are not seen in England & Wales.

Sorry but I can't see that that 3 trains per day on a 6 hour return trip and 1 to Inverness on a 10 hour return trip can possibly be achieved by one extra train set, not only that but a large proportion of the fleet has had to be equipped with expensive and inefficient Gen sets.
Through trains from London to Inverness and Aberdeen would not be run by any commercially based organisation. They exist because they existed prior to the low cost airline revolution and subsequently its been too difficult politically to drop them.

 

[Trainbike46]

Sorry but I can't see that that 3 trains per day on a 6 hour return trip and 1 to Inverness on a 10 hour return trip can possibly be achieved by one extra train set, not only that but a large proportion of the fleet has had to be equipped with expensive and inefficient Gen sets.
Through trains from London to Inverness and Aberdeen would not be run by any commercially based organisation. They exist because they existed prior to the low cost airline revolution and subsequently its been too difficult politically to drop them.

The reason you can run these services is because they are extensions of Edinburgh-London trips, mostly run with trains to would otherwise be going back to the depot or not have left the depot yet, so no need to lease extra trains at all. I've heard they were introduced to increase revenue (by offering more attractive through journeys) for very little cost as the rolling stock would just be sitting there doing nothing otherwise. That sounds like something a competent commercial organisation would introduce

And the generator sets are not just for the beyond edinburgh Scottish routes, they are also for diversions and resilience.

 

[swt_passenger]

The reason you can run these services is because they are extensions of Edinburgh-London trips, mostly run with trains to would otherwise be going back to the depot or not have left the depot yet, so no need to lease extra trains at all. I've heard they were introduced to increase revenue (by offering more attractive through journeys) for very little cost as the rolling stock would just be sitting there doing nothing otherwise. That sounds like something a competent commercial organisation would introduce

And the generator sets are not just for the beyond edinburgh Scottish routes, they are also for diversions and resilience.

Also for franchise commitments within England going back to the 2016 ECML review such as Middlesbrough, Lincoln, Hull, Sunderland, and various other Yorkshire branches etc etc…

 

[RT4038]

Sorry but I can't see that that 3 trains per day on a 6 hour return trip and 1 to Inverness on a 10 hour return trip can possibly be achieved by one extra train set, not only that but a large proportion of the fleet has had to be equipped with expensive and inefficient Gen sets.
Through trains from London to Inverness and Aberdeen would not be run by any commercially based organisation. They exist because they existed prior to the low cost airline revolution and subsequently its been too difficult politically to drop them.

The additional train set is covering the 07h52 Aberdeen-Edinburgh, 10h27 Edinburgh-Aberdeen, 14h52 Aberdeen-Edinburgh and 18h35 Edinburgh-Aberdeen The other trains, including the Inverness, are covered by trains which would otherwise be running in and out of the depot at Edinburgh, bearing in mind that a.m. business from York, Newcastle to Edinburgh, and p.m. returns will not justify the same frequency of service at other times. (as pointed out by @Trainbike46 )

It is too late to be worrying about the cost of Gen sets - the trains have been constructed with them already. That kind of appraisal would have been carried out quite some years ago. Whether a commercial operation would run these trains is conjecture - would a commercial operation run through trains from London to Penzance, over making through passengers change at Plymouth onto local trains? In a way, XC already do this, with the same principle of early and late trains running through.

 

[nw1]

The issue here I think is that the through trains have been running from Kings Cross since at least 1982, and probably a lot longer. Thus they are a long term service and withdrawing them would mean losing a through service which has run for many years. I'd have guessed there is significant demand from London to Dundee, Aberdeen etc for at least a few trains a day, e.g. one in the morning, one around midday and one late afternoon.

I don't think there's such a need for Cross-Country to go up that way (not sure if they still do, have lost track) but from London it makes sense to me.

 

[JonathanH]

The other trains, including the Inverness, are covered by trains which would otherwise be running in and out of the depot at Edinburgh, bearing in mind that a.m. business from York, Newcastle to Edinburgh, and p.m. returns will not justify the same frequency of service at other times. (as pointed out by @Trainbike46 )

Not quite - a unit goes to Craigentinny during the day that could take the place of one of the Aberdeen starters.

 

[TheBigD]

From a quick glance at the timetable, it looks to me that the LNER services north of Edinburgh tie up one trainset - all the others being early and late services formed of trains starting or finishing their day's work on the ECML south of Edinburgh.

Sorry but I can't see that that 3 trains per day on a 6 hour return trip and 1 to Inverness on a 10 hour return trip can possibly be achieved by one extra train set, not only that but a large proportion of the fleet has had to be equipped with expensive and inefficient Gen sets.
Through trains from London to Inverness and Aberdeen would not be run by any commercially based organisation. They exist because they existed prior to the low cost airline revolution and subsequently its been too difficult politically to drop them.

As discussed on this forum before, the LNER Aberdeen and Inverness services require 2 extra train sets during the day.

Some of the services however are resourced by sets that would just have started the day later/finished earlier at Edinburgh.

During the day, the 0700 Leeds-Aberdeen/1450 Aberdeen-Kings Cross is north of Edinburgh from 1030 to 1730, and the 1000 Kings Cross-Aberdeen is North of Edinburgh from 1430 to 2100.

"IF" LNER only ran London to Edinburgh it would save them 2 train sets for use elsewhere on the route.

The current Edinburgh to London service requires 24 sets with current turnarounds and extensions. If Inverness and Aberdeen were cut it would require just 22. The now deferred ECML May 2022 timetable would have reduced the requirements by 1 set.

 

[hexagon789]

The issue here I think is that the through trains have been running from Kings Cross since at least 1982, and probably a lot longer. Thus they are a long term service and withdrawing them would mean losing a through service which has run for many years. I'd have guessed there is significant demand from London to Dundee, Aberdeen etc for at least a few trains a day, e.g. one in the morning, one around midday and one late afternoon.

I don't think there's such a need for Cross-Country to go up that way (not sure if they still do, have lost track) but from London it makes sense to me.

King's Cross to Aberdeen as a day train as existed since the 1960s, before that it was through coaches. A second day train was added in 1973, and both became HSTs in May 1979.

Inverness was served by a day train from Euston from 1974 (The Clansman), HST from King's Cross since 1984 (The Highland Chieftain).

Perth has been served variously by day trains from Euston in the 1950s & 1960s, extensions of the Talisman/Fair Maid from Edinburgh in the 1950s, and briefly by HST 1982-84 until that was extended to/from Inverness.

Various marginal time extensions were tries throughout the 1980s, you had at one point 5 London KX/Aberdeen HSTs, 2 Glasgow QS-London KX HSTs, a Dundee-King's Cross HST, a Taunto-Inverness-Paignton/Plymouth extension of a Glasgow XC train, Dundee/Penzance extended both ways off the Edinburgh-Penzance and running down from Dundee as a morning peak stopper into Edinburgh and the reverse back the evening.

You had a Birmingham-Glasgow extended to Aberdeen, returning the other way to Euston via Birmingham.

Etc etc

All these marginal time services were run because simply the trains were spare and would have simply cluttered up the depots, as it was all these services enabled additional services over internal routes and enabled the internal allocated stock to be freed up for other services.

At one point this system was so advanced that not one of the two-hourly Edinburgh/Aberdeen services was provided by internal ScotRail stock they were all either HSTs or inter-regional LHCS. ScotRail and BR knew how to squeeze assets!

 

[JohnRegular]

Here's my question- what happens post-HS2?
I haven't seen anything suggesting that HS2 services will be extended north of the central belt.
Of course, HS2 only shaves about half an hour from London-Edinburgh journey times, and I don't imagine the rolling stock will be bi-mode (although I imagine there's a good chance of Aberdeen being wired by the time HS2 is done).
Would it be justified to consider Aberdeen extensions of HS2 services, or will the status quo be fine, assuming journey times via the ECML aren't significantly longer than today?

 

[lachlan]

Here's my question- what happens post-HS2?
I haven't seen anything suggesting that HS2 services will be extended north of the central belt.
Of course, HS2 only shaves about half an hour from London-Edinburgh journey times, and I don't imagine the rolling stock will be bi-mode (although I imagine there's a good chance of Aberdeen being wired by the time HS2 is done).
Would it be justified to consider Aberdeen extensions of HS2 services, or will the status quo be fine, assuming journey times via the ECML aren't significantly longer than today?

Hmm, the time saving used to be 45 minutes London-Edinburgh and 54 minutes London-Glasgow. Am unsure why the predicted journey times have gotten slower.

The anti-HS2 folks seemed to think the Aberdeen services would disappear. Personally I hope they will continue running as they provide a valuable link to York as well as London and even when you consider you can change at Haymarket rather than Waverley the time saving is still minimal.

 

[Mag_seven]

They exist because they existed prior to the low cost airline revolution and subsequently its been too difficult politically to drop them.

I would suggest that discontinuing them and saying that you should fly to London from Aberdeen / Inverness on a low cost airline instead sends out completely the wrong message.