Covid-19 to have a permanent downward effect on commuting patterns with more partial working from home?

[Ianno87]

I may be wrong here, but those workers on very high salaries working in the city probably are going to live close to where they work partly as they can afford it and partly because if they work very long hours they can’t afford to waste too much time commuting.

Not necessarily. Higher salary often means older, with kids, and you've moved out of London for more space etc. What you can "afford" is the hefty season ticket from the Home Counties, not necessarily being close to the office.

 

[nlogax]

I may be wrong here, but those workers on very high salaries working in the city probably are going to live close to where they work partly as they can afford it and partly because if they work very long hours they can’t afford to waste too much time commuting.

Yes and no. Looking at the Goldman Sachs story this morning it turns out that after taking their ridiculously long days into account they effectively earn less than the London living wage.

 

[edwin_m]

Yes and no. Looking at the Goldman Sachs story this morning it turns out that after taking their ridiculously long days into account they effectively earn less than the London living wage.

Seems rather improbable to me. 93hr per week at £10.85 per hour is around £52k per year and I can't believe their average is that low. Do you have a source that suggests otherwise?

 

[nlogax]

Seems rather improbable to me. 93hr per week at £10.85 per hour is around £52k per year and I can't believe their average is that low. Do you have a source that suggests otherwise?

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...bankers-rebel-over-18-hour-shifts-and-low-pay

First-year bankers are weighing up the costs. Starting on a base salary of roughly £50,000, analysts who regularly work 18-hour shifts, six days a week, will earn roughly £8.90 an hour before tax – less than the £10.85 living wage for London – unless they last until bonus season.

 

[telstarbox]

Not necessarily. Higher salary often means older, with kids, and you've moved out of London for more space etc. What you can "afford" is the hefty season ticket from the Home Counties, not necessarily being close to the office.

This is partly why the Old Kent Road (20 mins from the City) isn't as fancy as villages in the Sussex Downs (1 hour plus drive to the station). Those villages will look like an even sweeter deal if people only need to commute once or twice a week.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Mar 2021 ==

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...bankers-rebel-over-18-hour-shifts-and-low-pay

They should be Tube drivers instead. Same pay, fewer hours and free travel!

 

[david1212]

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...bankers-rebel-over-18-hour-shifts-and-low-pay

The key point here is ~£50,000 pa as the first year salary. How long before that rises? What is typical after 5 years and ten years?

Based on inflation that is roughly double my starting graduate salary in industry years ago and inline with with typical current graduate starting salaries of ~£25,000. Even after ten years many will not have reached £50,000 in todays terms.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Sunak encouraging people back to the office

https://news.sky.com/story/reopen-o...rishi-sunak-warns-british-businesses-12256912

is a positive indicator. OK its not an outright get back to the office now but nevertheless supportive of our industry which needs 60-70% traffic levels to keep treasury from wanting to take draconian action.

 

[OuterDistant]

I wonder if Sunak had been panicked by this:

Nationwide is to allow 13,000 office staff to choose where they work under a new flexibility scheme.
The UK's biggest building society said its "work anywhere" plan would allow employees more control of their lives.

Nationwide tells 13,000 staff to 'work anywhere'

The UK's biggest building society says it wants to give employees more control over their lives.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[birchesgreen]

Sunak encouraging people back to the office

https://news.sky.com/story/reopen-o...rishi-sunak-warns-british-businesses-12256912

is a positive indicator. OK its not an outright get back to the office now but nevertheless supportive of our industry which needs 60-70% traffic levels to keep treasury from wanting to take draconian action.

Sunak is either completely bonkers or desperate to help his landlord mates out, staff more likely to quit if forced to return to the office not forced to stay away.

 

[yorksrob]

I don't see any problem with encouraging employers to allow people back to the office.

I'd like my employer to be more accommodating of this.

 

[Dent]

Sunak is either completely bonkers or desperate to help his landlord mates out, staff more likely to quit if forced to return to the office not forced to stay away.

Where does it say anything about forcing anyone to return to offices? It clearly says "allow".

 

[Ianno87]

I don't see any problem with encouraging employers to allow people back to the office.

I'd like my employer to be more accommodating of this.

There's a fine balance to be struck between "encouraging/promoting" return to the office and "forcing".

Part of the current issue is that office attendance is so low, there's little point going for the social/collaborative interaction, as there's nobody there! There needs to be a "critical mass" to make it worthwhile.

 

[87 027]

Because of social distancing my office is only operating at 40% maximum occupancy so for as long as this continues to be a requirement you won’t get 60-70% from us using the trains to get there! All meeting rooms and communal spaces are off limits and meetings have to be done online at your own desk via Teams, so it’s a very different place from this time last year when the main concerns were how often the cleaners should wipe down the door handles....

 

[yorksrob]

There's a fine balance to be struck between "encouraging/promoting" return to the office and "forcing".

Part of the current issue is that office attendance is so low, there's little point going for the social/collaborative interaction, as there's nobody there! There needs to be a "critical mass" to make it worthwhile.

Indeed - and I agree with allowing people to work flexibly. Infact, I think more companies should embrace flexi-time !

But it didn't look as though Sunak was trying to force employees back every day 9 - 5.

 

[chris11256]

Wasn't there talk last year of the Government implementing a work from home tax or something?

I agree on later points through, talking about office culture needs widespread return to work otherwise you're sitting in a building mostly on your own, in which case what's the point?

 

[Ianno87]

Wasn't there talk last year of the Government implementing a work from home tax or something?

Don't think it was ever a serious policy proposal. As somebody who can work from home (though full time is a bit much), I'm not sure how fair it is to be taxed as a thank you for not using infrastructure and services to get to a place of work.

 

[chris11256]

I do think things will gradually improve through, mainly when social distancing is scrapped and people aren't being told that opening your front door will murder poor Dorris across the road.
Within my social circle there's certainly an appetite for 2 maybe 3 days a week in the office with almost none of them wanting to permanently work from home full time

 

[Bishopstone]

I think the Chancellor’s warning that people forced to work from home, permanently, might look for new employment is a valid one.

Lots of employers are rushing headlong into office closures because ‘it worked okay during the pandemic’, but muddling through for a year doesn’t necessarily make for a settled equilibrium in the long term, although we’ll never return completely to the working patterns of 2019.

I think there’s going to be an abnormally high volume of churn in the labour market, over the next two years. Some people who’ve had to travel to work throughout the pandemic will decide that a home-based job suits them better, but conversely, others who’ve worked from the kitchen table or box room for a year, will yearn for a greater degree of human contact and stimulation. There will be lots of career changing (some by necessity as retail etc loses headcount), and a great deal of regional movement. Interesting times!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think the Chancellor’s warning that people forced to work from home, permanently, might look for new employment is a valid one.

Lots of employers are rushing headlong into office closures because ‘it worked okay during the pandemic’, but muddling through for a year doesn’t necessarily make for a settled equilibrium in the long term, although we’ll never return completely to the working patterns of 2019.

I think there’s going to be an abnormally high volume of churn in the labour market, over the next two years. Some people who’ve had to travel to work throughout the pandemic will decide that a home-based job suits them better, but conversely, others who’ve worked from the kitchen table or box room for a year, will yearn for a greater degree of human contact and stimulation. There will be lots of career changing (some by necessity as retail etc loses headcount), and a great deal of regional movement. Interesting times!

Im pretty sure many of these office closures are nothing to do with wfh their using the pandemic as an excuse to do a bit of right sizing. Majority people want to get back to office and if it comes with flexibility when needed all the better. It will hurt public transport in the short term but once resources are realigned to traffic on offer timetables will be easier to run and that will drive reliability and keep the punters coming.

 

[Tezza1978]

Im pretty sure many of these office closures are nothing to do with wfh their using the pandemic as an excuse to do a bit of right sizing. Majority people want to get back to office and if it comes with flexibility when needed all the better. It will hurt public transport in the short term but once resources are realigned to traffic on offer timetables will be easier to run and that will drive reliability and keep the punters coming.

I worked from home prior to the pandemic - but going into the office on Monday for internal meetings and then out and about, mostly by train particularly to London and Milton Keynes, meeting suppliers and clients 3 days a week, with WFH Friday. Talking to virtually all my suppliers and clients, they are seriously missing face to face meetings and a bit of variety in the week. During the summer when rules were relaxed I attended a lot more F2F meetings and the agency suppliers all commented it was nice to have some normality back and meet face to face. We all see the value in Zoom/Teams and the benefits (e,g, a lot of mid project meetings can now use these to save time and travel) but permanent WFH as a concept fills us with horror and I and they would not want that. A hybrid model going forward is far more realistic - even in more routine ops/inbound call centre type roles..... I cant see that many companies wanting people to work at home 5 days a week every week. Much harder to develop staff, build a team culture, hold performance reviews etc. Only a very small minority of office workers would NEVER want to go to the office , and of that very small group there will be some who aren't currently doing much at home!

 

[Ianno87]

Im pretty sure many of these office closures are nothing to do with wfh their using the pandemic as an excuse to do a bit of right sizing.

If one company doesn't downsize...it's competitors will!

 

[bramling]

Don't think it was ever a serious policy proposal. As somebody who can work from home (though full time is a bit much), I'm not sure how fair it is to be taxed as a thank you for not using infrastructure and services to get to a place of work.

I’m not sure that argument entirely holds true though - you could probably make a case to say that any tax is unfair. What services or infrastructure does capital gains tax not use, for example?!

Taxes are really predicated on people having spare money to be able to pay them, so not having to shell out on a season ticket fulfils that.

Not saying it wouldn’t pee me off, but it’s something I think they could quite easily make a case for. Might irritate some Conservative core vote though.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well taken advantage of being released to have a runabout around London today. Inner suburban's loading very well especially LO, outer suburban's had double figures per carriage but couple of EMR IC's i did were lightly loaded. At E.Croydon around 1800 trains disgorging good crowds of people ex London Bridge/Victoria services.

 

[37424]

Sunak is either completely bonkers or desperate to help his landlord mates out, staff more likely to quit if forced to return to the office not forced to stay away.

Quite one of my friends wants to continue working mainly from home, however his employer wants him to return to the office 2 to 3 days per week even though there is no real need for him to be in the office most of the time consequently he is looking for another job.

 

[35B]

Quite one of my friends wants to continue working mainly from home, however his employer wants him to return to the office 2 to 3 days per week even though there is no real need for him to be in the office most of the time consequently he is looking for another job.

I have some colleagues like your friend, and others desperate to return. The picture will be very mixed.

 

[Cdd89]

The colleagues of mine keen to work from home permanently are, disproportionately, older and less ambitious workers who are settled in their role and who don’t prioritise workplace interaction as highly.

In the case of this chap...

there is no real need for him to be in the office most of the time consequently he is looking for another job

it may vary by industry but in mine it has been extremely difficult to train new starters remotely. I don’t see employers in a similar situation accommodating fully remote work at least in early stages; indeed this has been specifically cited by the company I work for as a reason for getting people back into offices

 

[chris11256]

it will very business by business, I have one friend who has refused to ever step foot in the office ever again, but even precovid she worked from home most of the time anyway. On the flip side I think those who have struggled with their work/life balance will start to go back, those people who've ended up working extra hours in the evening and that kinda thing. Physically going to work then gives you a nice end of day break betweek work/home rather than work being home.

I personally work in educatation so large scale working from home doesn't work well. As a school we don't provide staff laptops either, so anyone who wants to work from home must show they have their own equipment to do so.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I find in engineering (I work in design) working from home significantly reduces collaboration and also makes it a lot harder to train new people and bring them up to speed. That sort of thing can't go on forever.

I am all in favour of a blend between the two and for people to choose what suits them within reason.

 

[westv]

I’m not sure that argument entirely holds true though - you could probably make a case to say that any tax is unfair. What services or infrastructure does capital gains tax not use, for example?!

Taxes are really predicated on people having spare money to be able to pay them, so not having to shell out on a season ticket fulfils that.

Not saying it wouldn’t pee me off, but it’s something I think they could quite easily make a case for. Might irritate some Conservative core vote though.

Taking that to its conclusion then why not tax people based on how far they are from work then? So someone who lives 5 miles away pays less tax then someone who lives 2 miles away?
I think it's a silly idea.

 

[Ianno87]

Taking that to its conclusion then why not tax people based on how far they are from work then? So someone who lives 5 miles away pays less tax then someone who lives 2 miles away?
I think it's a silly idea.

Public transport fares and fuel will already, in effect, act like this. The further away you live, the more you pay in either fuel duty, or fare (the latter as your 'contribution' to the transport system's funding)