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Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

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Freightmaster

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Any estimates available of what proportion of the population would be infected before herd immunity kicked in, assuming a total end to restrictions??
As you might expect, none of the experts seem to be able to come to a consensus on herd immunity requirements,
with estimates ranging from 20% to 66%, but there is growing evidence that early virus 'hotpots' such as London
and New York are almost certainly now experiencing signs of herd immunity in the community(!), which if true is
very encouraging as both those cities have infection rates at the lower end of the herd immunity scale...




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DerekC

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Estimates at the moment is that actual death rate, including asymptomatic and mild cases is between 1 in 300 and less than 1 in 1,000.
It's just not a serious disease for most people. For those that it is, tough but that's life. Alcoholism, lack of excercise, smoking and over eating kill more people.
As you might expect, none of the experts seem to be able to come to a consensus on herd immunity requirements,
with estimates ranging from 20% to 66%, but there is growing evidence that early virus 'hotpots' such as London
and New York are almost certainly now experiencing signs of herd immunity in the community(!), which if true is
very encouraging as both those cities have infection rates at the lower end of the herd immunity scale...

I do wish contributors would give sources for statements like these. It's impossible to know how much credibility to give them otherwise (unless @trebor79 and @Freightmaster would like to post their epidemiology qualifications and experience).
 

Justin Smith

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I do wish contributors would give sources for statements like these. It's impossible to know how much credibility to give them otherwise (unless @trebor79 and @Freightmaster would like to post their epidemiology qualifications and experience).

Surely this is proof enough [that New York is developing herd immunity] :

New York death rate to 22 Aug 20.jpg

All areas / countries with high death rates (= high exposure to Covid) have similar graph shapes.

I think you put far to much store by "epidemiology qualifications and experience", I'd put my faith in something you can actually see :

1 - They have been wrong (as in overly pessimistic) on almost all the predictions they made (apart from the bloke in Sweden, and even he - wrongly- apologised when his nerve started failing him.....). Remember "Neil Ferguson OBE" (I think it was him) saying he advised the government "up to half a million [about 1% of the population] could die as a result of this virus". That looks very silly now.

2 - They all say different things anyway. Just like economists you can pretty much find one to say anything that agrees with what you want to say.
 

DerekC

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Surely this is proof enough [that New York is developing herd immunity] :

View attachment 82634

All areas / countries with high death rates (= high exposure to Covid) have similar graph shapes.

Which could simply prove that the measures to reduce transmission are effective.

I think you put far to much store by "epidemiology qualifications and experience"

Obviously I will need to find the ironic emoji next time

They all say different things anyway. Just like economists you can pretty much find one to say anything that agrees with what you want to say.

Very much like amateur interpreters of graphs.

The point I was trying to make is that posters on this kind of topic should quote a source for the statements they make (which to be fair you do). Otherwise they are just another purveyor of covid gossip.
 

jtuk

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This is really, really simple and explains what you see in New York, Sweden, and here amongst other places - Covid is only a threat to an extremely small number of people. We know exactly who they are, they tend to live in care homes and similar places. New York, Sweden and here all got protection of care homes severely wrong - half of all the deaths in Sweden were in them, we've had outbreaks (which is vaguely defined as 2+ Covid "cases") in half of them, New York similarly botched this horribly. Much as Hancock would like Covid to be able to kill people twice to keep the scaremongering going, there is actually a limit to what it can do.
 

DerekC

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@DerekC Which could simply prove that the measures to reduce transmission are effective.

Have you a source for this?

No - I am simply saying that there are other plausible explanations for the shape of the graph.

This is really, really simple and explains what you see in New York, Sweden, and here amongst other places - Covid is only a threat to an extremely small number of people. We know exactly who they are, they tend to live in care homes and similar places. New York, Sweden and here all got protection of care homes severely wrong - half of all the deaths in Sweden were in them, we've had outbreaks (which is vaguely defined as 2+ Covid "cases") in half of them, New York similarly botched this horribly. Much as Hancock would like Covid to be able to kill people twice to keep the scaremongering going, there is actually a limit to what it can do.

I think that is very oversimplistic. Covid is a threat which increases with age and is significant to anyone over 65 - see the chart below.

Figure 5_ Across all age groups in England, males had a higher rate of COVID-19 deaths than fe...png

Most people in that age group don't live in care homes. According to the ONS, in 2018 18.9% of the population of 66.4 million were over 65 (that's 12 million). According to a survey by Lang & Buisson (quoted by the care home provider MHA) about 416,000 people were in care homes in 2016. That's 4% of the over-65 population and about 0.6% of the total population, so whatever is going on, it is more than just care homes that are involved.

A possible addition to your theory which might make it more plausible is that people over 65/70 not in care homes are conscious of the risk to them and are simply being more careful about social distancing and contact with others than younger people. As an over-70, that certainly applies to me and to friends of about my age that I am in contact with which of course is only one very small piece of anecdotal evidence. Need to see whether there is a serious researcher looking at this possibility.
 

johnnychips

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In the worst possible case, according to the graph you included, males over 90 had about a 1 in 60 chance of dying with Covid.
 

DerekC

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In the worst possible case, according to the graph you included, males over 90 had about a 1 in 60 chance of dying with Covid.

That's about right - for the month of June, with all the protections in place. The equivalent ONS figure for April is about 1 in 7 and for May 1 in 15.
 
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LNW-GW Joint

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Is that a negative death rate there in May?!

Maybe France adjusted the figures at that point, like we did in mid-August when about 5000 reported deaths were lopped off the cumulative figure.
Originally they counted deaths if the person had ever contracted Covid, even if they died of something else.
They now only count deaths occurring within 28 days of the infection, and eliminated the non-Covid deaths at 28+ days.
So we are now at 41000-odd deaths rather than 46000-odd.
The global figures reported by JHU have now come down in line with this, but it took a few days to adjust.
It must be quite a job to monitor the uneven reports from nearly 200 countries (some at state/province level).
 

jtuk

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That's about right - for the month of June, with all the protections in place. The equivalent ONS figure for April is about 1 in 7 and for May 1 in 15.

That kind of looks like you're just taking the number of deaths (which most of us suspect is exaggerated), then the number of detected cases (which we all know is nowhere near the number of actual cases, can easily just stick a zero on the end of it, if not more), then dividing one by the other, which is terribly simplistic and misleading
 

trebor79

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In the worst possible case, according to the graph you included, males over 90 had about a 1 in 60 chance of dying with Covid.
What's the overall chance of a male over 90 dying in a given 6 month period? I'd wager its way way shorter odds than 1in 60. COVID is a relatively minor risk in that context.
Private Eye and other publications have publicised repeatedly that the risk of dying from COVID mirrors almost exactly the all risks chance of death. Essentially, it compresses your risk of death this year into a shorter period of time.
Given this fact, I just do not understand why we are continuing with highly damaging actions. The madness just needs to end now. Look at the difficulty the government is having reopening schools (although I'm suspicious this is engineered in order to bring in a mask mandate).
 

NorthOxonian

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What's the overall chance of a male over 90 dying in a given 6 month period? I'd wager its way way shorter odds than 1in 60. COVID is a relatively minor risk in that context.
Private Eye and other publications have publicised repeatedly that the risk of dying from COVID mirrors almost exactly the all risks chance of death. Essentially, it compresses your risk of death this year into a shorter period of time.
Given this fact, I just do not understand why we are continuing with highly damaging actions. The madness just needs to end now. Look at the difficulty the government is having reopening schools (although I'm suspicious this is engineered in order to bring in a mask mandate).

According to the 2019 life tables, the figure rises from 1 in 12 for 90 year olds to just over 1 in 5 for those aged 100+, over a six month period.

But bear in mind that not all over 90s have been infected - so the chances of a man of that age dying would be higher than 1 in 60. I can't remember where I read it, but I recall hearing a figure of 1 in 4, and that would make logical sense (most studies seem to show around 5-10% have been infected, if 1 in 15 have been then the numbers work exactly). Still, that's not quite a "death sentence", even for the most vulnerable group imaginable. And for those aged over 95, it's greater than their chances of death during a year normally.
 

30907

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It’s shocking really, but why does that not surprise me? The government after all were scaring us into complying with lockdown measures, so doing this is completely in line with that.
Perhaps someone could quote the actual percentage and the timescale rather than the headline; I suspect the overcounting is relatively insignificant and mirrors the pattern with deaths, ie refers mainly to the period from late May when they had come down significantly.

This is also the view expressed in a Guardian report from 21 Aug (first item shown, apologies that I can't provide a direct link); quotation below.

https://www.google.com/search?clien...E3LjeYAQCgAQHAAQE&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp


Claims that hospital admissions for Covid-19 in England were overreported at the peak of the outbreak may not be telling the whole story.

However, a row has broken out after claims were made that an investigation by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) had revealed that hospital patients could have been counted as a Covid-19 case even if they had been admitted for a different reason, or if they had previously tested positive and since recovered.

The definition was revised in June, such that only patients who tested positive shortly after entering hospital are now counted as Covid-19 admissions.
....

Prof Graham Medley of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, a member of Sage, told the Guardian there was no “investigation”, but rather Sage had been informed by the NHS that it had changed its definition of what counted as a hospital case of Covid.

Such changes, he added, were common practice as more was known about a disease, and would also have occurred in other countries. It did not mean the reported data was inflated, wrong or untrustworthy, he noted.

“When you start a new epidemic and you don’t know what the disease is, you have a very inclusive and encompassing definition which gets refined as time goes on,” he said.
 

Bletchleyite

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I might be wrong, but wasn't testing capacity initially so low that they weren't actually testing everyone admitted to hospital unless they were symptomatic, so the newer figure couldn't be reliably calculated?

Now, everyone admitted as an inpatient is tested (it's just done alongside the way some hospitals routinely test all admissions for MRSA), so that figure is workable.
 

DerekC

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That's about right - for the month of June, with all the protections in place. The equivalent ONS figure for April is about 1 in 7 and for May 1 in 15.
That kind of looks like you're just taking the number of deaths (which most of us suspect is exaggerated), then the number of detected cases (which we all know is nowhere near the number of actual cases, can easily just stick a zero on the end of it, if not more), then dividing one by the other, which is terribly simplistic and misleading

You could have checked the figures for yourself, but I guess it's easier to make lazy assumptions that suit your argument. Look at:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...id19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinjune2020

As the title of the chart says, the figure is the mortality rate per 100,000 of population attributed to Covid-19 in that month. @johnnychips divided one by the other to get a probability, which kind of makes sense. At the top of the page you can select the figures for previous months. Nothing whatever to do with the number of cases.

What's the overall chance of a male over 90 dying in a given 6 month period? I'd wager its way way shorter odds than 1in 60. COVID is a relatively minor risk in that context.
Private Eye and other publications have publicised repeatedly that the risk of dying from COVID mirrors almost exactly the all risks chance of death. Essentially, it compresses your risk of death this year into a shorter period of time.
Given this fact, I just do not understand why we are continuing with highly damaging actions. The madness just needs to end now. Look at the difficulty the government is having reopening schools (although I'm suspicious this is engineered in order to bring in a mask mandate).


According to the 2019 life tables, the figure rises from 1 in 12 for 90 year olds to just over 1 in 5 for those aged 100+, over a six month period.

But bear in mind that not all over 90s have been infected - so the chances of a man of that age dying would be higher than 1 in 60. I can't remember where I read it, but I recall hearing a figure of 1 in 4, and that would make logical sense (most studies seem to show around 5-10% have been infected, if 1 in 15 have been then the numbers work exactly). Still, that's not quite a "death sentence", even for the most vulnerable group imaginable. And for those aged over 95, it's greater than their chances of death during a year normally.

Interesting that the Covid figure for one month is immediately being compared with the overall figure for six months to give the answer that the posters want. However this thread being apparently an echo chamber for people who believe that the whole thing is wildly exaggerated or a conspiracy or both, I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
 

jtuk

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I have no idea what point you're trying to make at this stage, only that your results are so far off anything sensible that you must be making a trivial mistake somewhere
 

talldave

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It seems that the deadly killer virus that can't get you if you're sat down within range of a coffee machine didn't kill anyone on 19th August.
 

MikeWM

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Now, everyone admitted as an inpatient is tested (it's just done alongside the way some hospitals routinely test all admissions for MRSA), so that figure is workable.

Is that then listed as a 'COVID hospital admission', even if you've gone in for an ingrowing toe-nail [1] and have no symptoms and never get any symptoms?

I'm trying to make some sense of the government dashboard on hospitalisations (at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) and I'm more confused than when I started.

Wales seems to have much higher daily figures than England, for example, but the *total* number of people in hospital in Wales with Covid is only slightly higher than the daily admission numbers...

Conversely admissions in Scotland are effectively zero, but they still have a lot of people in hospital which doesn't appear to be decreasing at all.

The numbers for England are the only ones that look to make any rational sense.



[1] I'm not sure why these are always considered funny. I've had one (fortunately didn't require surgery) and they're not fun!
 

Class 33

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Number of new cases down a fair bit today to 853. So the press and media aren't able to go with their planned headlines such as "Second Wave IS HERE! Coronavirus cases over 1,000 for FIFTH consecutive day".

Let's hope tomorrow's new cases are down below 1,000 again. Though wouldn't be too surprised if they're back over 1,000 again. But then again with the significant increase in daily testing now, it is more likely to have higher positive results found. But yet far fewer of these new cases are resulting in ultimate deaths because of it. But the press/media and government don't seem to understand this!

And today's deaths just FOUR. An incredibly low figure again.

It was just over 3 and a half weeks ago now that Boris and the media were reporting "Second Coronavirus wave will arrive WITHIN A FORTNIGHT.". How very wrong they were. Still no second wave yet thankfully!
 

PHILIPE

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Number of new cases down a fair bit today to 853. So the press and media aren't able to go with their planned headlines such as "Second Wave IS HERE! Coronavirus cases over 1,000 for FIFTH consecutive day".

Let's hope tomorrow's new cases are down below 1,000 again. Though wouldn't be too surprised if they're back over 1,000 again. But then again with the significant increase in daily testing now, it is more likely to have higher positive results found. But yet far fewer of these new cases are resulting in ultimate deaths because of it. But the press/media and government don't seem to understand this!

And today's deaths just FOUR. An incredibly low figure again.

It was just over 3 and a half weeks ago now that Boris and the media were reporting "Second Coronavirus wave will arrive WITHIN A FORTNIGHT.". How very wrong they were. Still no second wave yet thankfully!


Mondays figures are usually down because of different variations in countings over the weekend
 
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Class 33

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Mondays figures are usually down because of different variations countings over the weekend

I know. But chances are we should get some more days this week of 5 or less daily deaths. And the 7-day rolling average should creep down a bit further again. Last week it was just 7.
 

scotrail158713

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Let's hope tomorrow's new cases are down below 1,000 again. Though wouldn't be too surprised if they're back over 1,000 again.
No doubt as well that if it does happen it’ll be reported as “HUGE SPIKE IN CASES AS SECOND LOCKDOWN IMMINENT”
 

DerekC

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I have no idea what point you're trying to make at this stage, only that your results are so far off anything sensible that you must be making a trivial mistake somewhere

The point I am making is that you are manipulating the figures to suit your argument and rubbishing anyone who doesn't agree with it - exactly what you are accusing everybody else of.
 

Class 33

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No doubt as well that if it does happen it’ll be reported as “HUGE SPIKE IN CASES AS SECOND LOCKDOWN IMMINENT”

Yes, that's a very good prediction you made as to what at least one of the press will publish when the cases are back over 1,000 again(which chances are will probably be tomorrow).

If a second national lockdown does go ahead, as some of the press are predicting, it will be ABSOLUTE INSANITY AND RECKLESS of the government to impose this when deaths are so incredibly low now(and still continuing to fall) - over 99.50% lower to what they were in the peak in mid April, along with the much reduced numbers of people in hospital, hospital admissions, and people on a hospital ventilator. I mean it's one thing that they're still keeping this social distancing and face mask wearing nonsense still dragging on with no definite end in sight, but to impose a second national lockdown again and the even more damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health that will cause, would just absolutely defy belief.
 
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RomeoCharlie71

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If a second national lockdown does go ahead, as some of the press are predicting, it will be ABSOLUTE INSANITY AND RECKLESS of the government to impose this when deaths are so incredibly low now(and still continuing to fall)
I highly doubt a "lockdown" as it was back in April, will be introduced again. I suppose there could be nationwide restrictions (e.g. all pubs need to be shut by 11pm), but we're much more likely to see local restrictions (see: Manchester, W Yorks, etc.).

The phrase "local lockdown" is misleading (unless it is exactly that - a repeat of April albeit in a particular area) and is just as bad as "new normal" and "socially distanced xyz".
 

trebor79

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The phrase "local lockdown" is misleading (unless it is exactly that - a repeat of April albeit in a particular area) and is just as bad as "new normal" and "socially distanced xyz".
Indeed. Completely nonsensical given there's nothing to prevent travelling beyond the area to do whatever and then return. It's a "closure of certain businesses or imposition of largely unenforceable social restrictions".
 

Bletchleyite

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Indeed. Completely nonsensical given there's nothing to prevent travelling beyond the area to do whatever and then return. It's a "closure of certain businesses or imposition of largely unenforceable social restrictions".

To work properly local lockdowns do need to include travel restrictions. Without them they could be negative - people will go to the next town to the pub and spread it round more.
 

bramling

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Yes, that's a very good prediction you made as to what at least one of the press will publish when the cases are back over 1,000 again(which chances are will probably be tomorrow).

If a second national lockdown does go ahead, as some of the press are predicting, it will be ABSOLUTE INSANITY AND RECKLESS of the government to impose this when deaths are so incredibly low now(and still continuing to fall) - over 99.50% lower to what they were in the peak in mid April, along with the much reduced numbers of people in hospital, hospital admissions, and people on a hospital ventilator. I mean it's one thing that they're still keeping this social distancing and face mask wearing nonsense still dragging on with no definite end in sight, but to impose a second national lockdown again and the even more damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health that will cause, would just absolutely defy belief.

There would be serious unrest for sure. I'm certain up for some "direct democracy". It would certainly be the end of Boris Johnson, any more than he's already finished of course.
 

Bletchleyite

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I can't imagine another national lockdown going ahead. What we might end up with, which is equally stupid, is local authorities all locking down themselves as they all adopt policies different from the national ones.
 
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