"Covid rising in England" - let's stop the fear mongering

[Bikeman78]

& of course dispose of them properly, i.e. in medical waste and not just in the normal waste.

Or in my front garden. I live right next to a bus stop and clearly some people think my garden is a tip. To be clear, I'm not worried catching Covid or anything like that from picking them up; I just hate litter.

 

[Mikw]

I would have a read of this Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/johndefeo/status/1535985423318716418 (it contains lots of images and videos so I cannot replicate here).

Bascially they are purely a placebo to placate people, and don't actually realistically make a difference.

Yep i'm aware that some studies say they don't work and some say they do work.

I guess you pays your money and you takes your choice with them. As Yorkie points out some are better than others.

I respect if people want to wear them, i don't at present, apart from in our hospital where i get treatment. they're still compulsory in areas where they have clinically vulnerable patients and have to treat them at close quarters.

 

[778]

I have somehow avoided getting covid (unless asymptomatic infection that I wouldn't know about), in spite of using public transport quite a lot. I don't have kids or socialise much (hardly go to pubs etc), so does this mean that public transport is fairly low risk, compared to hospitality, schools and your own house? I suppose it could depend on how busy the train/bus is and how loudly people are talking.

 

[westv]

I have somehow avoided getting covid (unless asymptomatic infection that I wouldn't know about), in spite of using public transport quite a lot. I don't have kids or socialise much (hardly go to pubs etc), so does this mean that public transport is fairly low risk, compared to hospitality, schools and your own house? I suppose it could depend on how busy the train/bus is and how loudly people are talking.

My guess is the worst places are schools and your own home/other people's homes.

 

[greyman42]

I have somehow avoided getting covid (unless asymptomatic infection that I wouldn't know about), in spite of using public transport quite a lot. I don't have kids or socialise much (hardly go to pubs etc), so does this mean that public transport is fairly low risk, compared to hospitality, schools and your own house? I suppose it could depend on how busy the train/bus is and how loudly people are talking.

I would say that everywhere is low risk.

 

[nw1]

My guess is the worst places are schools and your own home/other people's homes.

Why your own home incidentally?

Not denying it, I want to stress that (indeed I think that's essentially where I got it last November) but it is counter-intuitive.

Contaminated supermarket products/delivery products? Or are we counting the obvious "via people you live with" rather than the ultimate source (i.e. how did the infection enter your home in the first place?)

 

[Darandio]

Why your own home incidentally?

Not denying it (indeed I think that's essentially where I got it last November) but it is counter-intuitive.

Contaminated supermarket products/delivery products? Or are we counting the obvious "via people you live with".

Presumably they mean from other people in your own home. It stands to reason that you are going to spend more time in close proximity with family members in your own home, if they have caught it then you are likely to.

 

[nw1]

Presumably they mean from other people in your own home. It stands to reason that you are going to spend more time in close proximity with family members in your own home, if they have caught it then you are likely to.

Yes, true - I was thinking on a more abstracted level than that, i.e. cases in which someone who has stayed at home for a few days picks up Covid and is the first in the household to do so.

 

[Class 33]

I don't even understand why they're going on about this so called rise in cases. Yes there's been a rise in cases over the past month from 4,140 per day on 28th May to 21,360 per day on 27th June. Todays cases being just14,585. This is just a fraction of the peak we saw on 4th January when cases were 234,860 that day! So what's the fuss about?? They're making a mountain of a mole hill! Look at the chart below! Nothing to be worried about ATALL! The press and media need to give up and pack it in with their fear mongering nonsense!!! The vast majority of us in the UK are back to living a normal life!!!!

 

[duncanp]

I don't even understand why they're going on about this so called rise in cases. Yes there's been a rise in cases over the past month from 4,140 per day on 28th May to 21,360 per day on 27th June. Todays cases being just14,585. This is just a fraction of the peak we saw on 4th January when cases were 234,860 that day! So what's the fuss about?? They're making a mountain of a mole hill! Look at the chart below! Nothing to be worried about ATALL! The press and media need to give up and pack it in with their fear mongering nonsense!!! The vast majority of us in the UK are back to living a normal life!!!!

View attachment 116955

14,585 cases for 29th June compares with 17,662 cases a week earlier on 22nd June, which is a fall of just over 17%.

And the percentage change in the 7 day case rate peaked at 69.8% on 10th June and is now just over half of that figure.

All of which suggests that this current "wave" of COVID cases is beginning to plateau, just like all previous "waves" of cases.

When you look at the graph of cases by specimen date since the start of the pandemic, you can see how miniscule this current "wave" is, and it is probably true that it is caused, at least in part, by people travelling and mixing at events like Glastonbury and the Platinum Jubilee, for the first time since 2019.

So there really isn't anything to worry about, and it is more likely that Vladimir Putin will receive this years Nobel Peace Prize than any new COVID restrictions are imposed in England.

 

[kez19]

I don't even understand why they're going on about this so called rise in cases. Yes there's been a rise in cases over the past month from 4,140 per day on 28th May to 21,360 per day on 27th June. Todays cases being just14,585. This is just a fraction of the peak we saw on 4th January when cases were 234,860 that day! So what's the fuss about?? They're making a mountain of a mole hill! Look at the chart below! Nothing to be worried about ATALL! The press and media need to give up and pack it in with their fear mongering nonsense!!! The vast majority of us in the UK are back to living a normal life!!!!

View attachment 116955

Yet why are people still believing the media?

UK media are in short have became more tabloid news than being truthful with the facts, I could stomach people in the past moaning about Rupert Murdoch Sky (which he now no longer owns), but it’s the race to the bottom now be it Sky BBC ITV/STV.

14,585 cases for 29th June compares with 17,662 cases a week earlier on 22nd June, which is a fall of just over 17%.

And the percentage change in the 7 day case rate peaked at 69.8% on 10th June and is now just over half of that figure.

All of which suggests that this current "wave" of COVID cases is beginning to plateau, just like all previous "waves" of cases.

When you look at the graph of cases by specimen date since the start of the pandemic, you can see how miniscule this current "wave" is, and it is probably true that it is caused, at least in part, by people travelling and mixing at events like Glastonbury and the Platinum Jubilee, for the first time since 2019.

So there really isn't anything to worry about, and it is more likely that Vladimir Putin will receive this years Nobel Peace Prize than any new COVID restrictions are imposed in England.

Why can the media not report it as truthful like you say? I forgot it’s all about fear, UK media are not learning at all but yet people threw a stick towards Russia Today in its misinformation as such, this is just the equivalent of what people moaned about towards Russia Today but I see the approach is that people seem to be rolling over and letting our media get away with this same thing?

 

[Mikw]

Away from the petulant, irrational world of Jeremy Vine, Dr John Campbell speaks far more sense in his latest update.

John Campbell has been absolutely spot on for quite some time; when Omicron was first reported from South Africa, some people refused to believe the South Africans (I believe this was partly down to xenophobia in some cases) but John Campbell gave plenty of evidence against the scaremongering that certain people in the UK were engaging in at the time, and things are panning out in line with John Campbell's predictions, with huge numbers of exposures to Sars-CoV-2 but tiny proportions of those becoming deaths.

Most deaths with Sars-CoV-2 are incidental and not from Sars-CoV-2 and the same is true of hospital admissions.

Yes, Dr Campbell is my go to source for Covid information for the most part, he's rational. If he says it's bed then it's bad, and if he says there's little to worry about then there's little to worry about.

 

[duncanp]

I posted this in the support conversation thread, but it is worth posting this here as well.

More unjustified fearmongering.

Even the Monkepox Bedwetting British Broadcasting Corporation were trying to imply that this weekend's Gay Pride march in London could lead to an increase in the number of monkepox cases.

Early UK flu wave threatens to coincide with rising Covid and monkeypox cases

Britain has not experienced a proper flu season since the Covid pandemic struck, leaving experts worried about lack of immunity

www.telegraph.co.uk

Early UK flu wave threatens to coincide with rising Covid and monkeypox cases​

Britain has not experienced a proper flu season since the Covid pandemic struck, leaving experts worried about lack of immunity

Britain will be hit by an unusually early flu wave that could begin as soon as September, a health boss has warned.

It has sparked fears that the wave will collide with increasing numbers of Covid and monkeypox cases this autumn.

Britain has not experienced a proper flu season since the Covid pandemic struck in 2020, leaving experts worried about a lack of population immunity and the potential for a bad winter.

Dr Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), told a webinar hosted by the Royal Society of Medicine that health authorities were preparing for this eventuality.

Australia, currently going through its winter, is having its worst flu season in five years, Dr Hopkins said, adding: “We are planning for an influenza wave. I don’t know if people are following Australia, but we are watching very, very carefully.


“They have had their worst influenza season for more than five years. It started earlier and it rose very, very fast in all age groups, so we are expecting that we will see an early influenza wave.

“While we normally don’t see influenza really kick off until the end of November to December, that might happen as early as late September-October – that’s what we’re planning for.”

Dr Hopkins warned that monkeypox and Covid would also be on the rise, adding: “Our current planning assumptions are that we will see at least one [Covid] wave in the autumn-winter period.”

Covid cases and hospitalisations are currently increasing as a new omicron sub-variant, BA.5, exploits waning population immunity. The Zoe symptom tracker app said cases were up 27 per cent in a week and set to continue ticking upwards.

Dr Hopkins said that “for the next six months” people would need to assume that there would be ongoing community transmission of monkeypox. There are now between 20 and 40 new cases every day.

Cases have recently exceeded 1,000, official data show, and are spreading predominantly in gay and bisexual men.

London is at the epicentre of the outbreak, with 659 confirmed infected individuals, with the majority of patients gay and bisexual men between the age of 31 and 43.

Only five women have been diagnosed with the virus, which produces sore and virus-laden lesions. At least one child has tested positive, and there have so far been no deaths.

The three diseases are all following their own trajectories, but experts are fearful they will overlap in the coming months. “I think this year will be even more challenging than normal,” Dr Hopkins said.

However, she concluded her talk by saying that 2023 “will look like a different world” if the NHS can get through the rest of 2022 relatively unscathed.

It comes as the Office for National Statistics announced that its gold-standard Covid infection survey is being pared back after more than two years.

Scientists have warned that the change to the survey’s methodology puts the validity of its results at risk. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said it was “disappointing” and a “mistake” and could leave experts “blind” to the prevalence of Covid heading into winter.

 

[ainsworth74]

Even the Monkepox Bedwetting British Broadcasting Corporation were trying to imply that this weekend's Gay Pride march in London could lead to an increase in the number of monkepox cases.

I appreciate the BBC are enemy number one around here, for whatever reason, but I'm not sure it's fair to blame them for what the Telegraph produce as that's what you've linked to...

 

[nw1]

There's only one solution. Fludown. We absolutely must have a full, austere lockdown to prevent the transmission of flu this winter. No ifs. No buts. Let's not be like the irresponsible Tony Blair who let flu spread through the population unchecked in 1999/2000.

 

[duncanp]

I appreciate the BBC are enemy number one around here, for whatever reason, but I'm not sure it's fair to blame them for what the Telegraph produce as that's what you've linked to...

I wasn't blaming the BBC for what The Telegraph wrote.

It was more that on BBC Breakfast this morning they were doing an article about the Gay Pride march in London this weekend, and saying that it could lead to an increase in Monkeypox cases, given that a large proportion of existing cases are among men who have sex with other men.

 

[ainsworth74]

I wasn't blaming the BBC for what The Telegraph wrote.

It was more that on BBC Breakfast this morning they were doing an article about the Gay Pride march in London this weekend, and saying that it could lead to an increase in Monkeypox cases, given that a large proportion of existing cases are among men who have sex with other men.

I see, you'll have to forgive me but that wasn't particularly clear from your initial post.

 

[cuccir]

I don't even understand why they're going on about this so called rise in cases. Yes there's been a rise in cases over the past month from 4,140 per day on 28th May to 21,360 per day on 27th June. Todays cases being just14,585. This is just a fraction of the peak we saw on 4th January when cases were 234,860 that day! So what's the fuss about?? They're making a mountain of a mole hill! Look at the chart below! Nothing to be worried about ATALL! The press and media need to give up and pack it in with their fear mongering nonsense!!! The vast majority of us in the UK are back to living a normal life!!!!

You can't compare case data now to the era of free-testing and PCR tests. Two of my neighbours and my wife have had Covid in the last 5 weeks and my daughter may have done - heck, I might have had it asymtompatically - but none of these have been reported anywhere because why would we report them, and to whom?

You can see in the admissions data that we are on a wave, not at the same levels as the winter but marginally higher than it was most of last autumn for example. It looks like the upturn may juuuust be about starting to crest, but you'd imagine numbers will rise for another week at least and get over that 1500 per day line...



So the question is not whether we are in a wave, the question is whether it matters and whether it justifies any other anti-covid measures?

Mainly I'd say no, particularly if it tops out at around this level. Because admissions were lower through May, there will be capacity to admit people to hospital that wasn't there in March/April when the NHS was really under strain. It may limit the ability to use the summer as a 'health catch-up' time, which isn't great, but that's all.

I think if I were in charge, the only measure I'd be taking would be to have an admissions threshold at which I'd temporarily reintroduce free testing, so people can be more informed in deciding whether they want to avoid contact with vulnerable people, because those (and the unvaccinated, who have made their choice) are the only people being admitted. If that took 10-20% off the admissions number, I think that the cost of tests would be saved elsewhere in the NHS.

 

[LondonExile]

You can't compare case data now to the era of free-testing and PCR tests. Two of my neighbours and my wife have had Covid in the last 5 weeks and my daughter may have done - heck, I might have had it asymtompatically - but none of these have been reported anywhere because why would we report them, and to whom?

You can see in the admissions data that we are on a wave, not at the same levels as the winter but marginally higher than it was most of last autumn for example. It looks like the upturn may juuuust be about starting to crest, but you'd imagine numbers will rise for another week at least and get over that 1500 per day line...

View attachment 116972

So the question is not whether we are in a wave, the question is whether it matters and whether it justifies any other anti-covid measures?

Mainly I'd say no, particularly if it tops out at around this level. Because admissions were lower through May, there will be capacity to admit people to hospital that wasn't there in March/April when the NHS was really under strain. It may limit the ability to use the summer as a 'health catch-up' time, which isn't great, but that's all.

I think if I were in charge, the only measure I'd be taking would be to have an admissions threshold at which I'd temporarily reintroduce free testing, so people can be more informed in deciding whether they want to avoid contact with vulnerable people, because those (and the unvaccinated, who have made their choice) are the only people being admitted. If that took 10-20% off the admissions number, I think that the cost of tests would be saved elsewhere in the NHS.

That graph is probably as good a model as anything else for covid prevalence across the UK - but I'm not sure it's quite as simple.

We seem to be only routinely testing on hospital admission - but there's no breakdown of admitted because of covid and admitted incidentally with covid. Further down the healthcare data page is the number of covid patients on mechanical ventilation, and that doens't follow the same trend.

Perhaps the number of people who are covid positive (potentially asymptomatically), but admitted because their leg had an argument with a car is so small as to be irrelevant, but there is a clear opportunity for the numbers above to be reflective of the numbers, not the problem.

 

[MikeWM]

You can't compare case data now to the era of free-testing and PCR tests. Two of my neighbours and my wife have had Covid in the last 5 weeks and my daughter may have done - heck, I might have had it asymtompatically - but none of these have been reported anywhere because why would we report them, and to whom?

Which shows the problem with the hospitalisation graph - if any of you had gone into hospital for any other reason in that period, that would have been reported as a Covid admission.

We'd see similar 'waves' if we were monitoring admissions to hospital with any other circulating virus if we were testing for it in the way we are doing for Covid. It is an interesting statistic and makes a nice graph, but unless we know how many of these admissions are *for* Covid and how many are entirely incidental, we can't sensibly compare with previous 'waves' and we can't reach any useful conclusions.

It is very rubbish that 2 years or so after some of us started making this very point, we still have this same issue with this data.

From that website (if you dig into the metrics documentation):
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/metrics/doc/newAdmissions

England data include people admitted to hospital who tested positive for COVID-19:

in the 14 days before their admission
during their stay in hospital Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are reported as being admitted on the day before their diagnosis.

 

[brad465]

The BBC have decided to make a big thing of the latest covid data from the ONS - infections up 30% and being driven by sub-variants and have decided to top the front page with a live feed on it (really):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-62008118

​

Infections up more than 30%

The ONS data shows in infections have jumped more than 30% in a week. Around 2.3m people in the UK had coronavirus in the week ending on 24 June.
This is up by about 32% from around 1.7m the week before.
The ONS says that this is likely caused by infections compatible with Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5.
That's about 3.5% of the population testing positive for Covid (roughly one in 30 people), up from roughly one in 35 the week before.

 

[ainsworth74]

Heavens sake. Even I can't defend the Beeb on this one.

 

[duncanp]

Even the COVID Bedwetter Daily Mail is getting in on the act

Are Covid restrictions STILL on the cards? Boris leaves door open

The Prime Minister was given the opportunity to rule out ever imposing restrictions again in an interview with LBC this morning at a NATO summit in Madrid.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Are Covid restrictions STILL on the cards? Boris refuses to rule out curbs but says there's no plans for any 'at the moment' despite virus hospital admissions trebling in a month​

• Prime Minister given the opportunity to rule out ever imposing restrictions again
• 'I think that we see no reason for that at the moment,' he told LBC radio
• But Mr Johnson suggested sharp spike in hospitalisations could be trigger point

Boris Johnson has refused to definitively rule out more Covid restrictions — as virus hospital admissions continue to rise.

The Prime Minister said there were no plans for curbs 'at the moment' as he appeared to leave the door open to future measures.

He was given the opportunity to rule out ever imposing restrictions again in an interview with LBC this morning at a NATO summit in Madrid.

'I think that we see no reason for that at the moment and the most important thing is vaccination,' he said.

But Mr Johnson suggested that a sharp spike in hospitalisations could be the trigger point for new restrictions.

He added: 'We're not seeing the types of pressures on the medical services that would lead us to anything like that.'

Daily Covid hospital admissions have almost trebled in the last month to around 1,200 — though only a fraction of patients are primarily ill with the disease.

Cases have also risen sharply in recent weeks with an estimated one in 40 people carrying the virus in England last week, or 1.3million.

Mr Johnson refused to rule out a future lockdown in April, saying it would be 'irresponsible’ to discard something ‘that could save lives’ if a deadlier variant emerges.

Covid case numbers have became less important now that vaccines and natural immunity have severed the link between infection and severe illness.

Ministers are now looking to NHS virus figures to gauge the severity of the outbreak, which have been rising for over a month.

There are between 1,200 and 1,400 daily admissions for Covid currently, compared to around 450 at the end of May.

But the admission figures alone do not tell the full story as analysis suggests only a third (37.7 per cent) are primarily ill with Covid.

The rest are known as 'incidental' cases, those who went to hospital for a different reason but happened to test positive.

Incidentals have become increasingly common because the highly infectious but milder Omicron subvariants are so prevalent in the wider community.

Covid deaths — another key metric — have plateaued at around 20 per day in England and Wales, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The ONS breaks down deaths that were primarily caused by the virus, as opposed to it being a secondary factor.

However, fatalities are the biggest lagging indicator, and it can take weeks for them to rise on the back of an uptick in infections.

During his interview on LBC, Mr Johnson insisted that getting vaccinated against Covid was the most important way to avoid future restrictions.

Fourth doses — or a second booster — have been dished out to four in five people over the age of 75 and those who are immunosuppressed.

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests 1.36million people in England were infected during the week to June 18.

That is 70 per cent more than the 797,000 who were estimated to have had the virus at the very start of June.

The outbreak has been fuelled by the spread of BA.4 and BA.5, which are thought to be more infectious but just as mild as the original Omicron strain.

New estimates from the ONS will be published this afternoon.

A separate ONS Covid fatality report showed the virus was directly responsible for just 161 deaths in England and Wales in the most recent week, or 23 per day, on average.

Sir Jonathan Van-Tam last week dismissed hysteria that a recent uptick in Covid cases marks a new wave of the pandemic, saying Britain has to learn to live the virus.

 

[Eyersey468]

To be fair given how many times they have said something won't happen for it then to happen I think it is sensible of Boris not to rule anything out. I now need to have a lie down I never thought I would defend him.

 

[yorkie]

Do these people not understand that restrictions only delay infections? They don't prevent them! Why would we want to delay infections now?!

 

[brad465]

To be fair given how many times they have said something won't happen for it then to happen I think it is sensible of Boris not to rule anything out. I now need to have a lie down I never thought I would defend him.

I think given the state Johnson's position is in right now he'll want to avoid reintroducing anymore restrictions, as many of the MPs who he needs to prevent trying to force him out won't approve of anymore restrictions.

 

[30907]

I don't even understand why they're going on about this so called rise in cases. Yes there's been a rise in cases over the past month from 4,140 per day on 28th May to 21,360 per day on 27th June. Todays cases being just14,585. This is just a fraction of the peak we saw on 4th January when cases were 234,860 that day!

As the Govt. figures are distorted by the almost total abandonment of testing I prefer the ONS figures which are at least from a consistent base:
England 1 in 15 peak pre lockdown early January - 1 in 30 now
which also appears to reflect the real world of staff absences etc rather better.

I trust of course you will be using them properly, washing your hands before applying, replacing them if you touch them, get them wet, & every few hours. Also that you will have them properly fitted to your face, avoid having facial hair & of course dispose of them properly, i.e. in medical waste and not just in the normal waste.

Do you still believe Covid is spread primarily by contaminated surfaces, then?

 

[Bantamzen]

Do you still believe Covid is spread primarily by contaminated surfaces, then?

No, and I said no such thing. I'm not sure where you drew that conclusion but my point was that there are strict medical protocols to wearing masks to prevent viral spread effectively. That is washing hands before putting them on, not touching them and replacing if you do, ensuring they are fitted to the face, changing them at least every 4 hours. Otherwise you might as well have a limp piece of cloth strung loosely across your face.

Oh wait...

 

[kez19]

I appreciate the BBC are enemy number one around here, for whatever reason, but I'm not sure it's fair to blame them for what the Telegraph produce as that's what you've linked to...

Oh come on now when are any of the media factual with the truth? They’ll twist facts to suit themselves, if it’s one thing throughout this whole thing is the media themselves have lost some of their credibility but at least since Russia Today is gone at least they can’t be finger pointed for misinformation anymore.

I posted this in the support conversation thread, but it is worth posting this here as well.

More unjustified fearmongering.

Even the Monkepox Bedwetting British Broadcasting Corporation were trying to imply that this weekend's Gay Pride march in London could lead to an increase in the number of monkepox cases.

Early UK flu wave threatens to coincide with rising Covid and monkeypox cases

Britain has not experienced a proper flu season since the Covid pandemic struck, leaving experts worried about lack of immunity

www.telegraph.co.uk

Oh we have flu now? I haven’t forgotten about that but still fear and all that as usual, I be surprised I got that about 6 months ago as even when I done COVID testing it came back as nothing (but again strange how sudden the media interest in flu?), seems to me too that media have became more obsessive with viruses over the last couple years but more so this year, where yearly they yapped on about flu yearly!

Even the COVID Bedwetter Daily Mail is getting in on the act

Are Covid restrictions STILL on the cards? Boris leaves door open

The Prime Minister was given the opportunity to rule out ever imposing restrictions again in an interview with LBC this morning at a NATO summit in Madrid.

www.dailymail.co.uk

So as Van Tam says having to live with it, so who is stirring the pot? (hysteria?), aah one guess the media once more, I see restrictions mentioned again (aah media again), coincidental once more as I believe media up in Scotland talked about this towards Nicola Sturgeon, one would think this is some sort of media co-ordination going on here? On the other it proves that very point the media aren’t learning for themselves and it’s them whipping up hysteria (as I said ages ago it’s only a matter of time and this will blown back on the media themselves)

 

[Eyersey468]

I think given the state Johnson's position is in right now he'll want to avoid reintroducing anymore restrictions, as many of the MPs who he needs to prevent trying to force him out won't approve of anymore restrictions.

I agree Johnson has zero moral authority to try and impose any new restrictions