Electrification isn't really about the cost of fuel, diesel was pennies per litre when the ECML was electrified, and it was around today's prices in 2009/2010 when the GWML electrification was announced. It's about the entire cost to the country of operating diesel trains, which is enormous.
Diesel, despite the headline cost per litre, isn't cheaper than electric. There's the transportation costs involved in getting fuel to a depot, whether it's a train path with tanks, or whether it's HGV tankers taking up road space, it's a hidden cost which is removed through electrification.
There's emissions and pollution legislation, which is the biggest driver of electrification. It's another hidden cost which goes into the mix, bunded fuel tanks on depots, waste oils and other lubricants unique or used in vastly larger quantities by diesel stock which need safely disposed of, oil leaking onto the track from crankcase breathers.
NOx and particulate matter damages the health of millions - diesel trains contribute to childhood asthma and anywhere from 30,000 to 90,000 (premature) deaths a year are attributable to air pollution. That's a moral and financial problem we need to solve, the pressure that puts onto the NHS is huge, lots of prescriptions for asthma and allergies, for blood pressure, treatments for airway and other related chronic conditions. There's the cost of people affected staying in hospitals, the loss of tax revenue if people are declared unfit for work, and the loss of tax and productivity as people are off work ill temporarily or permanently.
Diesel trains, as we know, are either slow and ponderous, or vastly overpowered and uneconomical in order to meet EMU performance, they waste paths in many areas, they're on the whole less reliable and require more maintenance. They can be noisy and upset local residents and they make lower floored, more accessible trains difficult.
And we can do more with electric costs - we can invest and drive down the costs of power generation, we still remain at the mercy of the oil markets when it comes to diesel costs. We can plan properly with electric trains, trying to forward plan fuel costs for diesels in an idiot's game, the oil price crash took most by surprise - the UK Government expected $100 per barrel, the Scots were thinking more like $125 this year. Thanks to the electric market having up front costs, we know what we'll be paying for electric in the next few Control Periods, we can only case and make provisions for what we'll be paying for diesel at the end of CP6.
