Crossrail opening delayed (opening date not yet known)

[reddragon]

Not very convincing.

It might be 2020 by the time we see full service on all branches, depending on what happens with the core. It seems unlikely that a delay of nine months would be announced if there was a serious chance of breaching a second deadline.

Convinced now?

 

[kaiser62]

All of the major newspapers are reporting that it has been announced by the Mayor of London that Crossrail is unlikely to open during 2019 and the construction firms have said that they will need a further £2BN to complete the project.

The BBC says

"A £1.4bn bailout has been announced for Crossrail, as Europe's biggest infrastructure project is pushed back beyond its launch date of autumn 2019".

Full text here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-46507417

The Guardian says

"Delayed Crossrail could cost almost £3bn more than planned"

see here for full text https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...uld-hit-17bn-with-london-paying-2bn-shortfall

As a percentage of the original contract price this is significant. Although construction projects carry a significant financial risk, Crossrail is both very large and very complex. Should we (including the politicians and journalists) be surprised, or should we just accept it as par for the course?

 

[PR1Berske]

Goodbye Cross Rail 2.
Maybe goodbye HS2.
Didn't HS2 hire the very impressive Terry Morgan. Great display of good judgement.

My guess is Crossrail will be 2021 as fully functioning, end to end. The consequences for HS2 is anyone's guess.

 

[Sceptre]

How many Transpennine Route Upgrades would that bailout fund, then?

 

[Failed Unit]

As a user of Moorgate, you can’t see what it is like behind the hoardings. But certainly doesn’t appear anyway near ready considering it should have opened today. Things over-run and go wrong but I am amazed they have found a hole that big. Certainly won’t help cross-rail 2 and HS2 for that matter.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The extra funding is described as "loans" (as was the last one).
TfL has to find some means of paying off the loans (increased fares, business levy etc).
So theoretically it's not a bailout, and has not stolen funds from elsewhere (eg TP Upgrade or HS2).
We shall see...

 

[samuelmorris]

My guess is Crossrail will be 2021 as fully functioning, end to end. The consequences for HS2 is anyone's guess.

As with Crossrail 2. There will be serious doubts about its viability after this series of events.

 

[GreatAuk]

As with Crossrail 2. There will be serious doubts about its viability after this series of events.

Indeed. And even if they did decide to go ahead with Crossrail 2 anyway, it seems potentially likely that (as others have suggested) a final decision on whether to go ahead or not will be delayed until there's a year or two of data from Crossrail 1 performance. This would then push it back even further....

All in all a thoroughly frustrating situation for the rail industry (not to mention the passengers and businesses who stand to benefit from an improved railway network).

 

[GRALISTAIR]

All of the major newspapers are reporting that it has been announced by the Mayor of London that Crossrail is unlikely to open during 2019 and the construction firms have said that they will need a further £2BN to complete the project.

Comments?

Words fail me

 

[Ken H]

A lot of the cost overrun today is attributed to the lack of income from the farebox which will spoil the cashflow models

This will put an immense strain on TfL's finances.

 

[LLivery]

It was taken out *but* several things to take into account. There was some descoping of the project to fit the budget. Therefore what's being built is less than the original budget. Crossrail has eaten through all of the project risk and contingency funding (£400m). We are now in a situation where the project is consuming money at an enormous rate of at least £25m a week for not a lot of demonstrable physical progress. The FT article quoted an extra £1bn on top of £590m and a £350m loan to the GLA (passed through to TfL) already paid out. This is an enormous amount of money (nearly £2bn) and even if you are generous and allow £1bn for equivalence to the old budget it's still a lot of extra money. If TfL have to finance all of this overspend then the TfL budget is screwed for years. It explains why the new Business Plan, due at a TfL cttee meeting this coming week, has not been published in the meeting papers.

The ongoing uncertainty about the train/signalling interface is extremely concerning as there's little being said that would inspire confidence that things are heading in the right direction. The stations will eventually come right (assuming stn systems are able to talk to each other!) but trains and signalling is another thing altogether.

Discussed in this very thread just 3 days ago. Look at posts #242-246. But in summary, no, the efficiency savings probably did work (in the sense of, saving money. You can argue about whether Crossrail is as good with the things that were cut in the savings). As far as we can tell, the things currently going wrong are different things from the stuff that was changed in the efficiency savings.

Ah understood, thanks both.

As with Crossrail 2. There will be serious doubts about its viability after this series of events.

Which would be a massive shame but Crossrail 2 costs an eye-watering sum. However, it should be used as a case study to learn from.

 

[kaiser62]

Apparently it will come from increased business rates

 

[MotorcycleAlan]

There is already a lengthy discussion on this in the general topic section. Would it not be a good idea to all use that?

 

[AM9]

How many Transpennine Route Upgrades would that bailout fund, then?

None if the Northwest electrification project is anything to go by!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What's to stop Crossrail services operating from Paddington to Maidenhead and Reading?
At least it would get the trains out of Old Oak Common and doing something useful.
GWR could then cascade 387s westwards.

 

[matthewmacleod]

Convinced now?

Yes, because now we have actual sources instead of your unsourced "trust me guv" statements.

I'm totally willing to accept that the situation has changed, and now that we have some confirmation of that it will be interesting to hear what went wrong, so that we can avoid the same mistakes in the future.

 

[plcd1]

The first thing to concentrate on is getting the Core up and running. That is the new bit, and for many key. Interface with the GEML, GWML and Heathrow can come later, and in the meantime passengers will need to change. How much effort will it take to get Abbey Wood to Paddington running? I have to say, from casual passing of the couple of open air work sites along this section, all work and effort seems to have stopped. I can't believe that EVERY trade is unable to get on and finish their work.

Sadly, though, you do need the signalling transitions at Pudding Mill Lane and Westbourne Park to be completed, tested and assured as part of getting the core done. That is evident from the programme graphic in the 26th July presentation linked to earlier.

I've been looking at a few of the Mayor's weekly update reports and the RAG (Red Amber Green) programme appendices and commentary. I have to wonder if the people reading the reports understood what they were reading. I'm not an engineer nor a rail operator but I've been on big projects and been a client for Underground projects and I can see (with some element of hindsight to be fair) that things weren't right. Stations have been my "concern" with CR for a long time and yet they were showing as "green" even in May this year. There wasn't a cat in hell's chance of them being handed over to the operators back then. Even in July the status had gone to Amber even though that implied an almost non existent period of operator familiarisation. What the heck were people doing with this information? Conjuring up the ghost of Dennis Norden to say "it'll be alright on the night"? Looks to me like the much rumoured "reluctance to pass bad news up the management chain" (thermocline of truth) was much in evidence at Crossrail.

 

[Ken H]

Sadly, though, you do need the signalling transitions at Pudding Mill Lane and Westbourne Park to be completed, tested and assured as part of getting the core done. That is evident from the programme graphic in the 26th July presentation linked to earlier.

I've been looking at a few of the Mayor's weekly update reports and the RAG (Red Amber Green) programme appendices and commentary. I have to wonder if the people reading the reports understood what they were reading. I'm not an engineer nor a rail operator but I've been on big projects and been a client for Underground projects and I can see (with some element of hindsight to be fair) that things weren't right. Stations have been my "concern" with CR for a long time and yet they were showing as "green" even in May this year. There wasn't a cat in hell's chance of them being handed over to the operators back then. Even in July the status had gone to Amber even though that implied an almost non existent period of operator familiarisation. What the heck were people doing with this information? Conjuring up the ghost of Dennis Norden to say "it'll be alright on the night"? Looks to me like the much rumoured "reluctance to pass bad news up the management chain" (thermocline of truth) was much in evidence at Crossrail.

There seems to be a culture of not telling the boss bad news. a true professional would tell his boss as soon as he feels that mileposts wont be met, not wait till delivery date and say 'oops, sorree'.

Does anyone on the inside think this is true?

 

[DarloRich]

Does this not kill crossrail 2 as the money was to come from the business rate monies now being used to pay back the loan?

 

[AM9]

Does this not kill crossrail 2 as the money was to come from the business rate monies now being used to pay back the loan?

Not necessarily as CR2 serves many new businesses not helped by CR1. There may be a delay if the UK leaves the EU, especially in a more reckless way.

 

[Busaholic]

2020 may prove to be pushing it too. Thameslink mk 2, although mainly for rather different reasons. Nowt to do with Grayling, naturally.

 

[Hadders]

This is disappointing but these things tend to happen with this sort of project. I suspect there's always a bit of 'poetic license' when it comes to budgeting on these sort of projects in order to get the project authorised. Once started they can hardly stop.

Remember the Jubilee Line Extension - 3 years late in the end iirc and massively over budget.
I think the Victoria Line was also late and over budget.

No-one would seriously say these shouldn't have been built. It'll be the same with Crossrail - all will be forgotten once it's up and running.

 

[Taunton]

There seems to be a culture of not telling the boss bad news. a true professional would tell his boss as soon as he feels that mileposts wont be met, not wait till delivery date and say 'oops, sorree'.

Does anyone on the inside think this is true?

Different I think. I believe the highest-paid bosses and the multiple levels of auditors and checkers did not have the ability to understand what they were being told. This is often pointed to when detailed reports of progress have to be reduced to Janet-and-John RAG (Red/Amber/Green) style, as stated here, instead of a detailed listing of the various steps, progress compared to programme, hours used, hours to go, variations, explanations of risks, details of measures take to overcome these, etc.

In the case of stations, described above, each station is a building project, doubtless with its own team. Building projects with a high M&E component, which is what they were down to in latter stages, are being done 100 times over all across London. It's not rocket science to manage the programme and the specialist contractors doing it. It may sound complicated to an outsider, but the specialist trade contractors are selected wholly BECAUSE this sort of thing is just what they do for a living all the time. The names are all very familiar.

i think Sir Terry Morgan will not only have some lengthy questioning to handle at the Select Committee and from the National Audit Office, but if there is documented evidence that work was being signed off and paid for from public funds when it had not been completed then I think some more fundamental questions may need to be investigated.

 

[a_c_skinner]

This is how civil engineering works in UK isn't it? You put in a low price then argue about extra money for everything that doesn't go like clockwork.

 

[bramling]

This is how civil engineering works in UK isn't it? You put in a low price then argue about extra money for everything that doesn't go like clockwork.

I don’t think anyone really objects too badly to the fact that it’s late and over budget - as others have said this often happens with these long and complex projects. What’s more concerning is the fact that the leadership seem to have been either blind to it, or kept it to themselves. That’s delusional and incompetent at best, contemptuous at worst.

At least the JLE announced relatively early on that the original date (Spring 98 IIRC) wasn’t going to be met. In the event it was around eighteen months after that the last link in the chain was delivered, Westminster station, and one wonders if that would have dragged out longer were it not for the Dome!

 

[a_c_skinner]

Yes, they must have known, or should have known.

 

[contrex]

RER services in Paris have strange 4-letter route names... Only the regulars would get to know them, although they are printed in the timetables.

I used to know HIVA and ZYCK and I was only in Paris twice a year.

 

[deltic]

I underst

There seems to be a culture of not telling the boss bad news. a true professional would tell his boss as soon as he feels that mileposts wont be met, not wait till delivery date and say 'oops, sorree'.

Does anyone on the inside think this is true?

I understand problems were being flagged up a long time ago to relatively high levels at DfT and TfL - what was done with that info or why it wasnt being believed I dont know

 

[Busaholic]

Breaking news - Theresa May announces that after her Brexit triumph, and with time on her hands, she's taking over Crossrail, with Chris Grayling as her trusted deputy. What can possibly go wrong/right now?

 

[samuelmorris]

Breaking news - Theresa May announces that after her Brexit triumph, and with time on her hands, she's taking over Crossrail, with Chris Grayling as her trusted deputy. What can possibly go wrong/right now?

Meh, couldn't go any worse. Give them a shot, see what happens :P