December 2020 Timetable Change

[seagull]

Hearing whispers about Avanti timetable possibly being cut back in December so, yes I think it's all very fluid at the moment.

 

[yorksrob]

Hearing whispers about Avanti timetable possibly being cut back in December so, yes I think it's all very fluid at the moment.

Hopefully not the Scotland ones, as they seem well loaded whenever I'm on them (except first, which was predictably emptywhen I walked through it)

 

[The Planner]

Hearing whispers about Avanti timetable possibly being cut back in December so, yes I think it's all very fluid at the moment.

Its more than whispers. Its real.

 

[berneyarms]

If that’s Chester or North Wales services, hopefully some effort at meaningful connections at Crewe might happen this time around?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Its more than whispers. Its real.

Is that a modification to what's in there now, then? RTT seems to show the same standard hour from Euston as before, i.e. 3 Manchester, 3 Birmingham (one of which to Scotland, odd Shrewsburys), 1 Liverpool, 1 Chester/N Wales, 1 Glasgow, odd Blackpools.

I checked this using 1000-1059 on 13/1/21, FWIW.

 

[The Planner]

Is that a modification to what's in there now, then? RTT seems to show the same standard hour from Euston as before, i.e. 3 Manchester, 3 Birmingham (one of which to Scotland, odd Shrewsburys), 1 Liverpool, 1 Chester/N Wales, 1 Glasgow, odd Blackpools.

I checked this using 1000-1059 on 13/1/21, FWIW.

It won't have been actioned yet I suspect, but it is going to be reduced. I have heard 6tph, so likely two track esque in structure.

 

[Llandudno]

If that’s Chester or North Wales services, hopefully some effort at meaningful connections at Crewe might happen this time around?

Now that’s a novel idea....!

 

[Bald Rick]

Is that a modification to what's in there now, then? RTT seems to show the same standard hour from Euston as before, i.e. 3 Manchester, 3 Birmingham (one of which to Scotland, odd Shrewsburys), 1 Liverpool, 1 Chester/N Wales, 1 Glasgow, odd Blackpools.

I checked this using 1000-1059 on 13/1/21, FWIW.

There’s a number of short notice changes for several TOCs coming through that haven’t been processed yet.

 

[cle]

I could see them dropping a Manchester and having MKC and Macclesfield on the same trip. The Crewe/Wilmslow route may well have to feed a chopped Chester/N Wales too, or a Liverpool can.

Crewe will likely live on as a Glasgow call too - again, it could service the above - or connect into additional Manchester trains (especially if the Wilmslow was dropped and Mcr went to 1tph).

 

[Ianno87]

Doubt Manchester would go as low as 1tph with the number of fleet and crew originating from there.

 

[seagull]

It won't have been actioned yet I suspect, but it is going to be reduced. I have heard 6tph, so likely two track esque in structure.

Thanks: it's not all that common that rumours are actually real, in this industry, so good to have confirmation.

What I have heard is that we will be looking at something like 1tph on Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow via Trent, and 1tph Birmingham plus 1tph Wolverhampton (with presumably the Birmingham-Prestons coming back) - in other words it's pretty much back to the timetable we had in April/May time. It maybe that Manchester would retain 2tph, if Birmingham is going to.

 

[Starmill]

There is hardly anywhere left that Avanti serves that's not in 'High' or 'Very High' Covid restrictions, so it's not enormously surprising that they'll need to scale back. 'tier' restrictions only ever go one way: up.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There is hardly anywhere left that Avanti serves that's not in 'High' or 'Very High' Covid restrictions, so it's not enormously surprising that they'll need to scals back. 'tier' restrictions only ever go one way: up.

I don't think that's entirely true. While they aren't likely to go down any time soon, the second wave will eventually subside and things will be back like August for a while. Or a vaccine brings it down etc.

I suppose to be fair this is unlikely before May.

 

[yorksrob]

I don't think that's entirely true. While they aren't likely to go down any time soon, the second wave will eventually subside and things will be back like August for a while. Or a vaccine brings it down etc.

I suppose to be fair this is unlikely before May.

Seven months of lock down. We might as well say restrictions only ever go one way.

 

[Starmill]

like August for a while. Or a vaccine brings it down etc.

Presumably you mean 'like August in Milton Keynes' because I can assure you that August was not a point of particularly low restrictions everywhere. This isn't really the point of this thread but the foreseeable future has only one outlook, which is of the current or greater restrictions. It appears that you've agreed with that point in the second part of your post anyway.

 

[Cheshire Rover]

Some more Northern services have dropped in. Helsby gets three services in a morning on the Chester to Leeds service, one of which seems to replace the TFW service that was at 0720 into Piccadilly with an 0729 into Victoria.

 

[Watershed]

Until STP amendments start feeding in, you're not gonna get anything close to a real picture of what service patterns will actually run. The TOCs are, in the main, just pushing forward the existing base (WTT) with a few tweaks, so as to guarantee they don't lose paths.

Even before the second wave began impacting crew availability anew, many TOCs were running a significantly reduced timetable for secondary reasons. With the second wave intensifying, I would be surprised if STP doesn't revert the situation to late March on a lot of TOCs.

 

[infobleep]

Until STP amendments start feeding in, you're not gonna get anything close to a real picture of what service patterns will actually run. The TOCs are, in the main, just pushing forward the existing base (WTT) with a few tweaks, so as to guarantee they don't lose paths.

Even before the second wave began impacting crew availability anew, many TOCs were running a significantly reduced timetable for secondary reasons. With the second wave intensifying, I would be surprised if STP doesn't revert the situation to late March on a lot of TOCs.

When they put in base timetables, does it include crew diagramming and do they then have to undo it all when they feed into STP amendments?

 

[Bald Rick]

When they put in base timetables, does it include crew diagramming and do they then have to undo it all when they feed into STP amendments?

Rolling stock diagrams are all in the base, typically, crew diagrams follow that.

 

[306024]

When they put in base timetables, does it include crew diagramming and do they then have to undo it all when they feed into STP amendments?

In normal times the base long term plan will have rolling stock and crew diagrams created. Crew rosters are created from the base plan, which determine how many traincrew you need to run the base timetable. This is all calculated using an agreed formula, which may vary from company to company.

Then for whatever reason, bank holidays, engineering work, special events etc, a short term plan will be overlaid, with rolling stock and crew diagrams amended accordingly. Traincrew will be rostered to the revised diagrams again in line with agreed procedures.

With Covid there may be some companies amending their long term plan to reduce the amount of further alterations required, but usually all the data has to flow in the same direction, so the roster would reflect whatever base plan is in place. Mixing a long term plan with a short term roster would be fraught with difficulty.

However reducing the long term plan in this way makes it more difficult to revert to your base timetable in future should that be required. With Covid the picture is constantly changing, from passenger demand to staff availability, so there isn’t an easy solution, and requires a lot of planning activity.

 

[infobleep]

In normal times the base long term plan will have rolling stock and crew diagrams created. Crew rosters are created from the base plan, which determine how many traincrew you need to run the base timetable. This is all calculated using an agreed formula, which may vary from company to company.

Then for whatever reason, bank holidays, engineering work, special events etc, a short term plan will be overlaid, with rolling stock and crew diagrams amended accordingly. Traincrew will be rostered to the revised diagrams again in line with agreed procedures.

With Covid there may be some companies amending their long term plan to reduce the amount of further alterations required, but usually all the data has to flow in the same direction, so the roster would reflect whatever base plan is in place. Mixing a long term plan with a short term roster would be fraught with difficulty.

However reducing the long term plan in this way makes it more difficult to revert to your base timetable in future should that be required. With Covid the picture is constantly changing, from passenger demand to staff availability, so there isn’t an easy solution, and requires a lot of planning activity.

Thanks.Fascinating. I love get insights into how it works. Makes one better appreciate the work people do.

 

[Jamesrob637]

In normal times the base long term plan will have rolling stock and crew diagrams created. Crew rosters are created from the base plan, which determine how many traincrew you need to run the base timetable. This is all calculated using an agreed formula, which may vary from company to company.

Then for whatever reason, bank holidays, engineering work, special events etc, a short term plan will be overlaid, with rolling stock and crew diagrams amended accordingly. Traincrew will be rostered to the revised diagrams again in line with agreed procedures.

With Covid there may be some companies amending their long term plan to reduce the amount of further alterations required, but usually all the data has to flow in the same direction, so the roster would reflect whatever base plan is in place. Mixing a long term plan with a short term roster would be fraught with difficulty.

However reducing the long term plan in this way makes it more difficult to revert to your base timetable in future should that be required. With Covid the picture is constantly changing, from passenger demand to staff availability, so there isn’t an easy solution, and requires a lot of planning activity.

Best to keep gradually increasing things as Northern and TPE among others seem to be doing. We don't want things reverting to (the new) normal next summer, people heading out and about, but only a COVID timetable (even if what does run can be longer carriages). People just like a Takt frequency.

 

[306024]

Best to keep gradually increasing things as Northern and TPE among others seem to be doing. We don't want things reverting to (the new) normal next summer, people heading out and about, but only a COVID timetable (even if what does run can be longer carriages). People just like a Takt frequency.

There is no one size fits all, and Train Operating Companies cannot predict what the next government guideline will be and precisely how it will affect demand. Match that to the resources you have to run a service and every TOC will be in a slightly different position. In East London a full service has been operating between Liverpool St and Shenfield for months, in fact as mentioned in a Modern Railways a full service plus one extra, and in December the off peak frequency on this line increases from every 10 minutes to every 7-8 minutes.

 

[Jamesrob637]

There is no one size fits all, and Train Operating Companies cannot predict what the next government guideline will be and precisely how it will affect demand. Match that to the resources you have to run a service and every TOC will be in a slightly different position. In East London a full service has been operating between Liverpool St and Shenfield for months, in fact as mentioned in a Modern Railways a full service plus one extra, and in December the off peak frequency on this line increases from every 10 minutes to every 7-8 minutes.

The Shenfield line is the one to follow then! I've only used it once back in 2011 on a venerable 315!

 

[Bald Rick]

Best to keep gradually increasing things as Northern and TPE among others seem to be doing. We don't want things reverting to (the new) normal next summer, people heading out and about, but only a COVID timetable (even if what does run can be longer carriages). People like a Takt frequency.

To be honest I think if there’s another lockdown, all bets are off on what happens next year.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

In normal times the base long term plan will have rolling stock and crew diagrams created. Crew rosters are created from the base plan, which determine how many traincrew you need to run the base timetable. This is all calculated using an agreed formula, which may vary from company to company.

Then for whatever reason, bank holidays, engineering work, special events etc, a short term plan will be overlaid, with rolling stock and crew diagrams amended accordingly. Traincrew will be rostered to the revised diagrams again in line with agreed procedures.

With Covid there may be some companies amending their long term plan to reduce the amount of further alterations required, but usually all the data has to flow in the same direction, so the roster would reflect whatever base plan is in place. Mixing a long term plan with a short term roster would be fraught with difficulty.

However reducing the long term plan in this way makes it more difficult to revert to your base timetable in future should that be required. With Covid the picture is constantly changing, from passenger demand to staff availability, so there isn’t an easy solution, and requires a lot of planning activity.

The operators also have to ensure that they reserve the rights to their long-term base paths in the timetable, to make sure that when the music stops and we in theory go back to a more normal situation, they are actually able to reinstate the base service in line with their underlying DfT contractual specifications! This limits to some extent the amount of descoping that can be done in the base plan, and many paths that won’t be required in the short-medium term are still bid for to NR and then suppressed from being advertised, or cancelled weekly via STP processes.

 

[Jamesrob637]

TOCs should not be cutting down following today's announcement.

The new timetable does not kick in for eleven days after we are due out of this second stage of restrictions. If people by and large comply with the temporary rules, COVID may die down to the extent that we can get out and about for Christmas even if in smaller numbers, and that will mean many travelling by train in small groups who need to be socially distanced from other similarly-minded small groups.

Nope we need the gradual increases à la Northern/TPE/***insert TOC here***.

 

[thenorthern]

Any news on when the December 2020 East Midlands Railway timetable will be out? I take it the planned improvements to the Crewe to Derby Line won't take place in December now?

 

[Bald Rick]

Any news on when the December 2020 East Midlands Railway timetable will be out? I take it the planned improvements to the Crewe to Derby Line won't take place in December now?

It’s been published for weeks. Of course there’s possibility of changes for Covid reasons, but the current plan is what you see.

 

[thenorthern]

It’s been published for weeks. Of course there’s possibility of changes for Covid reasons, but the current plan is what you see.

So same as it has been for years except for no calls at Alsager?