December 2021 Timetable change

[Nicholas Lewis]

It really isn’t back to normal in terms of passenger numbers on GEML / WAML services in the peak. Nor Stansted passengers. And those are the passengers that pay the bills (and our salaries).

All routes that would have been broadly categorised commuting aren't back to anything like normal yet they are running at least a solid off peak service frequency all day long yet other routes are still on pandemic timetables. One has to assume DofT need to minimise there support costs, especially as they burnt through £2B over periods 1-4 on EMAs, so they need to TOCs to manage operating costs but DofT aren't used to managing it the operating level so I suspect the TOCs are driving this, and why make life difficult for yourself especially as you can earn a bonus for running a reliable trains service, and DofT are going with the flow. Until GBR get all over this can't see service levels being set that will encourage modal transfer and passenger satisfaction.

 

[Bald Rick]

and DofT are going with the flow.

Not when the Treasury comes knocking. And the Budget / Spending Review is announced tomorrow...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Stansted is in trouble as an airport. Three reasons:

1) A lot of its traffic was to/from Eastern Europe, which was transient labour and settled immigrants returning to see family and friends (and vice versa). Obviously, that market is reducing post Brexit.

2) it was trying to make much of being ‘the only London airport with spare capacity’ (which rather ignored Luton and Southend), and trying to do deals with transatlantic and Middle East airlines at cut price rates. Post Covid that opportunity has gone.

3) Luton, specifically the £200m+ it has invested in the DART. Suddenly Luton will be half an hour from central London (St Pancras), well under an hour from most of zone 1, with little pfaff. This will change the equation for people with a choice between the two.

I’d be surprised if Stansted sees its 2019 passenger numbers again any time this decade.

Interesting macro perspective and would say Gatwick isn't much better off. All UK airports are suffering alot more than many European or US cities and with IATA saying airline usage, particularly international, will take till at least 2025 to recover other than for operational convenience now airports shouldn't be driving timetables.

 

[Verulamius]

Thameslink is broadly providing an off peak service all day. So St Albans is broadly not getting the additional 4 fast and 2 semi fast trains during the high peak hour.

If you look at the timetables on the thameslink website you can see how busy each train is and selecting a particular train will give you the comparison for each day.

It is noticable that mid week is considerably busier than M/F.

Still a sizable decline since pre covid.

 

[Bald Rick]

All UK airports are suffering alot more than many European or US cities

UK airports are much more internationally focused than US airports; presumably the US domestic market has held up much better. You could argue the same for EU airports given the common restrictions for most intra EU travel.

 

[geoffk]

Might be OK if a suitable connection were provided for Bristol to Manchester or Sheffield to Oxford. But they're not, they're both an hour in Birmingham.

Did the railway have many train crew from EU countries, especially eastern Europe? We read a lot about east Europeans returning home and leaving gaps in the workforce here, but how many do/did the railways employ?

 

[Bald Rick]

Thameslink is broadly providing an off peak service all day. So St Albans is broadly not getting the additional 4 fast and 2 semi fast trains during the high peak hour.

If you look at the timetables on the thameslink website you can see how busy each train is and selecting a particular train will give you the comparison for each day.

It is noticable that mid week is considerably busier than M/F.

Still a sizable decline since pre covid.

Yes the fast trains are about 50-70% as full as pre Covid. And there’s only half as many of them. So something like 25-35% of normal peak passengers. However part of the reduction is because Bedford / Luton / Airport passengers now have the EMR Corby services as well, which some will prefer over Thameslink, particularly if they normally alight at St Pancras. There’s also some evidence of a shift to early off peak (not just on this line). Overall I estimate around 40-50% of longer distance peak commuting is back on this route. Doing some very quick maths, that’s around 8000 commuters missing a day, which will be £30-40m a year, just on this part of this line.

The stoppers are loading better, but then inner London commuting is holding up better across the piece.

 

[The Prisoner]

Worried that service specifications are being altered by stealth.

Example- AWC aren’t reintroducing anything like a full service on the N Wales/Holyhead route for the foreseeable future. Running something like 20-30pc of the pre-covid direct services.

I live in Chester and the three remaining direct services are at totally useless times for me (first thing in the morning and two in the afternoon).

Add in that there are no advance fares (what with the reduction of capacity) and I have either driven to Crewe (despite living 10 minutes walk from Chester station) or had to split the ticket at Crewe to get anything half decent by way of a fare from there the last few times I’ve been.

You can’t even book a through Standard Premium or advance ticket changing at Crewe.

AWC are saying there isn’t the demand to bring back the directs, yet the Chester - Crewe TfW shuttles are always full and standing now.

I’ve played into their hands by not booking a single through Chester - London ticket each time I’ve traveled this year (the full TfW Chester to Crewe shuttle is also horrifically unreliable).

They were filling hourly services all day every day pre pandemic. Yes I know numbers have dropped due to said pandemic, but Crewe - London services are well patronised.

My point is that if you remove such a level of services people will either just not bother or find a different way. Seen plenty of comments on Avanti’s social media saying people have given up travelling on this route.

Will the DfT then allow AWC to permanently remove these services in the service spec as there is “no demand”?

I really wish Grand Central had got a foot hold on the WCML.

 

[Bald Rick]

Worried that service specifications are being altered by stealth.

There was supposed to be a consultation on Avanti’s proposed timetable for next year, but don’t know why it hasn’t been started yet.

 

[Horizon22]

Really baffled by this. ÖBB reported 85% of pre-Covid passenger numbers this September and was expecting even more in October. I don’t think it is that much different in neighbouring countries. What is so different in the UK?

Depends what you're talking about. A number of weekend services / routes are still well over 100% of pre-Covid demand despite summer having passed. But these weren't the biggest money spinners although will evidently need to pivot that way.

But multiple tph services on commuter routes across major cities & London and SE going back to full including peak specials? Highly unlikely unless it can be shown there's actually going to be sustained demand for these trains at good loading levels.

 

[bramling]

Depends what you're talking about. A number of weekend services / routes are still well over 100% of pre-Covid demand despite summer having passed. But these weren't the biggest money spinners although will evidently need to pivot that way.

But multiple tph services on commuter routes across major cities & London and SE going back to full including peak specials? Highly unlikely unless it can be shown there's actually going to be sustained demand for these trains at good loading levels.

It doesn’t help that we’ve been teetering on the point of a return to restrictions for some while, in the minds of some, and the government hasn’t done much to dampen this down. It doesn’t help that they’ve bust their credibility so many times - no masks then announced the next day, back to school for one day, Christmas then no Christmas, to name but a few u-turns.

So no one knows whether they’re coming or going.

 

[Horizon22]

It doesn’t help that we’ve been teetering on the point of a return to restrictions for some while, in the minds of some, and the government hasn’t done much to dampen this down. It doesn’t help that they’ve bust their credibility so many times - no masks then announced the next day, back to school for one day, Christmas then no Christmas, to name but a few u-turns.

So no one knows whether they’re coming or going.

Well as I said weekends have been incredibly busy to the point that many TOCs are seriously considering a completely new strategy for weekend timetables and crew/stock allocations. There's evidently still some hesitancy but people seem more keen than ever to get out and about on the weekend. Obviously the Sunday issue is compounded by crew contracts and that's going to have to change fast (and could be messy) to accommodate a better Sunday provision.

 

[bramling]

Well as I said weekends have been incredibly busy to the point that many TOCs are seriously considering a completely new strategy for weekend timetables and crew/stock allocations. There's evidently still some hesitancy but people seem more keen than ever to get out and about on the weekend. Obviously the Sunday issue is compounded by crew contracts and that's going to have to change fast (and could be messy) to accommodate a better Sunday provision.

Out of interest, does anyone know *why* weekends seem to have exploded? Is this simply people doing stuff in lieu of foreign holidays? I can understand weekend use coming back to where it was before, but I don’t entirely get why it should be more (if indeed it really is, or is it more a case of weekend use has come back whereas weekday hasn’t?).

 

[Horizon22]

Out of interest, does anyone know *why* weekends seem to have exploded? Is this simply people doing stuff in lieu of foreign holidays? I can understand weekend use coming back to where it was before, but I don’t entirely get why it should be more (if indeed it really is, or is it more a case of weekend use has come back whereas weekday hasn’t?).

I would only be guessing but aspects of lots of virtual living the last two years at home has obviously pushed people to travel more when they are free at weekends. Some areas pricing also hasn't been too bad. And of course lots of domestic "long weekends" instead of overseas holidays and the railway did at least reasonably early realise these were the passengers to go after. These are of course just my educated guesses, others may have more insight / different opinions.

Whether it will be sustained is hard to say (although I had thought it would fade away after Summer but it hasn't that much) and not all routes have seen such a rise. Will be interesting to see what TOCs can achieve better weekend timetables in Dec '21. I'd say there's still too many unknowns and it might wait until May (or beyond) for weekends to really be bolstered.

 

[Austriantrain]

In broad terms, with such a large city, and a dense level of employment in the central activity area, I suspect that proportionally more people commute to central London by rail than commute to central Vienna / Graz / Salzburg / etc by rail.

Many more of these daily commuters are travelling long distance too (30-150miles // 50-250km), paying £4-10k a year for it, and taking up 2-4 hours of their day. That’s a pretty strong incentive to stop doing so, if you can earn the same money by working at home most of the time.

Then on the ‘push’ side, with central London office rents in the region of £750/Sqm, that’s a strong incentive for employers to downsize and encourage their staff to work at home.

The final point, which is a smaller effect but still worth noting is airport traffic. In 2019 around 2% of GB rail passengers were heading to or from a plane, and that has been slow to recover. It’s also important as it represents rather more than 2% of revenue.

Thank you! So it’a actually London that drags the numbers down?

 

[dk1]

Did the railway have many train crew from EU countries, especially eastern Europe? We read a lot about east Europeans returning home and leaving gaps in the workforce here, but how many do/did the railways employ?

Not really & those that I know wouldn’t even consider leaving such a well paid career.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Oct 2021 ==

Obviously the Sunday issue is compounded by crew contracts and that's going to have to change fast (and could be messy) to accommodate a better Sunday provision.

Can’t see anything happening fast if at all. Will need to be some generous offers on the table for it to even be worthwhile talking.

 

[Ianno87]

Thank you! So it’a actually London that drags the numbers down?

Or (alternative take) it was London holding up the numbers pre-Covid, and losing even a proportion of that demand has a huge impact.

 

[Bald Rick]

Out of interest, does anyone know *why* weekends seem to have exploded?

It is only on some routes. Overall, weekend passenger numbers are still a little below Pre Covid, on Saturdays and Sundays.

Thank you! So it’a actually London that drags the numbers down?

Or (alternative take) it was London holding up the numbers pre-Covid, and losing even a proportion of that demand has a huge impact.

Correct on both counts.

 

[The Planner]

There was supposed to be a consultation on Avanti’s proposed timetable for next year, but don’t know why it hasn’t been started yet.

Being written now, lessons learnt from the ECML one.

 

[philosopher]

It is only on some routes. Overall, weekend passenger numbers are still a little below Pre Covid, on Saturdays and Sundays.
.

What weekend routes have seen increased passenger numbers? Is it predominantly those to seaside resorts?

 

[JRT]

Yes you can. You just need to change trains.

The (more frequent) timetable wasn't designed around changing trains. An earlier timetable 20 years ago?? with an hourly frequency on each leg had trains with a 15 min layover at New Street and chance to change between routes.

 

[iphone76]

Out of interest, does anyone know *why* weekends seem to have exploded? Is this simply people doing stuff in lieu of foreign holidays? I can understand weekend use coming back to where it was before, but I don’t entirely get why it should be more (if indeed it really is, or is it more a case of weekend use has come back whereas weekday hasn’t?).

A lot of people I know are much happier going to London now on a weekend as they aren't going up every day for work. Before working from home the last thing they wanted to do after a week commuting to London by train was to return there, even for leisure, on a weekend.

Talking about the December 2021 Timetable, does anyone know if the Greater Anglia timetable is remaining as it is now? There was a December 2021 timetable consultation during COVID, however, I presume this has been paused for now. (Linked to the East Coast timetable pushback?).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yes the fast trains are about 50-70% as full as pre Covid. And there’s only half as many of them. So something like 25-35% of normal peak passengers. However part of the reduction is because Bedford / Luton / Airport passengers now have the EMR Corby services as well, which some will prefer over Thameslink, particularly if they normally alight at St Pancras. There’s also some evidence of a shift to early off peak (not just on this line). Overall I estimate around 40-50% of longer distance peak commuting is back on this route. Doing some very quick maths, that’s around 8000 commuters missing a day, which will be £30-40m a year, just on this part of this line.

The stoppers are loading better, but then inner London commuting is holding up better across the piece.

An example of unnecessary duplication now and surely two of the TL Bedfords should terminate at Luton operators aren't in competition with each other anymore. I appreciate stock rotation through Bedford will still be required but would free up 2-3 units.

 

[Alfie1014]

A lot of people I know are much happier going to London now on a weekend as they aren't going up every day for work. Before working from home the last thing they wanted to do after a week commuting to London by train was to return there, even for leisure, on a weekend.

Talking about the December 2021 Timetable, does anyone know if the Greater Anglia timetable is remaining as th now delayed. it is now? There was a December 2021 timetable consultation during COVID, however, I presume this has been paused for now. (Linked to the East Coast timetable pushback?).

There was to be a GE change in December 21 and WA in May 22 both now delayed the latter due to the ECML debacle and the former due to at least in part the on-going delays to full cl720 introduction.

 

[berneyarms]

There was supposed to be a consultation on Avanti’s proposed timetable for next year, but don’t know why it hasn’t been started yet.

It is a shame that even by this December no effort appears to be being made by AWC to make their Crewe-Chester/North Wales shuttles actually connect into/out of their WCML services at Crewe. The waits are shocking, typically 40 minutes from London and 30 minutes to London.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It is a shame that even by this December no effort appears to be being made by AWC to make their Crewe-Chester/North Wales shuttles actually connect into/out of their WCML services at Crewe. The waits are shocking, typically 40 minutes from London and 30 minutes to London.

Issue of connections need to be addressed by GBR as its clear that on many routes through services are going to be reducing to get the railways affordable again so its an absolute necessity that a connection policy is put in place and timetables built around this in future to encourage rail travel.

 

[GoneSouth]

Issue of connections need to be addressed by GBR as its clear that on many routes through services are going to be reducing to get the railways affordable again so its an absolute necessity that a connection policy is put in place and timetables built around this in future to encourage rail travel.

Ah the good old days of holding connections for a couple of minutes for an incoming late arrival

That policy saved me hours of waiting around on dreary lonely platforms in BR days!

 

[infobleep]

It really isn’t back to normal in terms of passenger numbers on GEML / WAML services in the peak. Nor Stansted passengers. And those are the passengers that pay the bills (and our salaries).

So are all TOCs running the number of trains according to passenger numbers on their network? In other words, if some are running a near-normal service it means they have more passengers than those that are not running a near-normal service.

 

[Bald Rick]

So are all TOCs running the number of trains according to passenger numbers on their network? In other words, if some are running a near-normal service it means they have more passengers than those that are not running a near-normal service.

In a word no. And train lengths vary! GA are running a nearly full peak, of trains that are mostly shorter than pre covid (and mostly less busy).

 

[bussnapperwm]

What I don't get is, if WMR insist on keeping a 4tph for Snow Hill, why don't they put it to every 15 instead of every 10/20, with Stratford staying on the Whitlocks and Dorridge trains using the bay at DDG. It'd also make connections at Galton Bridge to Wolves/BBrum better (especially connections to BHM/WVH ex Stourbridge).

The tt would less confusing too