Driverless cars could revolutionise transport and lead to the decline of Railways

[yorksrob]

Yes, I would have to say that I am a bit worried about the prospect of driverless cars.

Hopefully they won't catch on.

 

[greatvoyager]

Yes, I would have to say that I am a bit worried about the prospect of driverless cars.

Hopefully they won't catch on.

I agree, any vehicle that is autonomous is always something that worries me.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree, any vehicle that is autonomous is always something that worries me.

Why? Humans are terrible at controlling things, they make lethal errors all the time.

 

[greatvoyager]

Why? Humans are terrible at controlling things, they make lethal errors all the time.

I wouldn’t say many humans are bad at controlling vehicles. Most of them are fine.
For example I would trust my sister, a competent and safe driver, to drive me over anything autonomous, if I was able to fit into cars.

 

[yorksrob]

Fundamentally, I'm against anything that threatens the railway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wouldn’t say many humans are bad at controlling vehicles. Most of them are fine.
For example I would trust my sister, a competent and safe driver, to drive me over anything autonomous, if I was able to fit into cars.

I wouldn't trust any human to drive better than a well-tested automatic system. An automatic system does not make mistakes, it does exactly what it is programmed to do.

Fundamentally, I'm against anything that threatens the railway.

There is that, I suppose, though I'd say it only threatens branch lines. It would likely increase use of longer-distance and commuter routes, because you'd buy your journey as "mobility as a service" and likely not get a through car service unless you chose a very high price, more likely it'd be an electric car to the station and one to your destination at the other end.

 

[greatvoyager]

Fundamentally, I'm against anything that threatens the railway.

Also, just because autonomous cars may exist, doesn’t mean everyone will use them. Not everyone uses the train, but not everyone uses a car either.

I wouldn't trust any human to drive better than a well-tested automatic system. An automatic system does not make mistakes, it does exactly what it is programmed to do.

My sister is also well tested…

 

[Bletchleyite]

My sister is also well tested…

She is still a human and thus flawed.

 

[bspahh]

Driverless cars would be really good for packing lots of cars into a car park.

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/ne...erless-shuttle-buses-take-cambridges-20685047 has a story about trials of a 20mph driverless shuttle bus

I wouldn't like to be a pedestrian that gets hit by that!

 

[greatvoyager]

She is still a human and thus flawed.

As are many technological systems. Also, I’m assuming these autonomous cars are being designed by humans.

 

[yorksrob]

.

 

[BrianW]

I think that motorcars could yet prove a dead end. The underlying horseless carriages which they are trying to automate are late Victorian technology that will be leapfrogged - in a literal and quite spectacular way - by the first adopters of personal jetpacks. Humans have for thousands of years dreamed of being able to fly at will, whereas the cultural idea that motorcars embody a form of personal freedom had to be manufactured over decades of the mid twentieth century. Given that ultimate form of personal freedom, I think we can see which the public will prefer.

We have been promised jetpacks since the fifties, if not before, but recent advances have brought them closer to reality. I saw one on Top Gear the other night, and it won a race against an electric racing car.

I wonder why the James Bond 'personal jetpack' never took off (or hasn't yet?) Similarly the Segway (sp?)?
BR had plans for freight 'trains' that would come together and part co-ordinatedly using early computerisation. Kind of like a national Whitemoor Yard. (In passing sign of the times re priorities now Whitemoor Prison).
With satnav, logistics software, Uber etc it must be already possible to arrange road travel that way. Oxford- MK- Bedford- Cambridge- 'England's Economic Heartland 'on the case'?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wonder why the James Bond 'personal jetpack' never took off (or hasn't yet?) Similarly the Segway (sp?)?

The Segway has in a cheaper form - the e-scooter.

 

[yorksrob]

I wouldn't trust any human to drive better than a well-tested automatic system. An automatic system does not make mistakes, it does exactly what it is programmed to do.



There is that, I suppose, though I'd say it only threatens branch lines. It would likely increase use of longer-distance and commuter routes, because you'd buy your journey as "mobility as a service" and likely not get a through car service unless you chose a very high price, more likely it'd be an electric car to the station and one to your destination at the other end.

The branch lines are often the best ones !

Also, just because autonomous cars may exist, doesn’t mean everyone will use them. Not everyone uses the train, but not everyone uses a car either.

My sister is also well tested…

This is true. I don't consider myself anymore likely to take one than a car..

 

[greatvoyager]

The branch lines are often the best ones !

This is true. I don't consider myself anymore likely to take one than a car..

I think it also depends on the setup. Will autonomous cars have a manual override?

 

[yorksrob]

I must admit, I remember watching my school friend playing Jet Set Willy on his spectrum ZX and thinking that home computing would never catch on, so I have a poor record on predictions.

 

[baz962]

I wouldn't trust any human to drive better than a well-tested automatic system. An automatic system does not make mistakes, it does exactly what it is programmed to do.



There is that, I suppose, though I'd say it only threatens branch lines. It would likely increase use of longer-distance and commuter routes, because you'd buy your journey as "mobility as a service" and likely not get a through car service unless you chose a very high price, more likely it'd be an electric car to the station and one to your destination at the other end.

But don't humans program the technology. Also tech can fail , pretty sure a lot of people have been taken the wrong way by sat nav .

 

[stuu]

Pedestrians and cyclists are best segregated from general traffic in urban areas.

How exactly do you propose to do that without rebuilding entire cities? And how popular do you think any such measures would be?

 

[Dave W]

Also, just because autonomous cars may exist, doesn’t mean everyone will use them. Not everyone uses the train, but not everyone uses a car either.

My sister is also well tested…

Is she?

Casting no aspersions on your sister's driving ability, of course, but is a one-off driving test, usually many years ago, the definition of "well tested"? Some of those we allow to control 1-2 tons (plus more) of heavy machinery definitely do not act in a way that suggest they are "well tested".

 

[Bletchleyite]

How exactly do you propose to do that without rebuilding entire cities?

London is making excellent progress with Dutch style segregation, while any new development should mandatorily include it.

And how popular do you think any such measures would be?

The Redway system seems popular in MK, and new segregated measures in London too.

But don't humans program the technology.

Yes, which is why you have extensive testing.

Also tech can fail , pretty sure a lot of people have been taken the wrong way by sat nav .

Satnavs are not safety critical. Safety critical things have a far higher level of testing.

 

[ComUtoR]

What you probably want is a self-driving car to take you to the station for the train. Trains are good at mass transit.

They're a threat to country branch lines but not to the railway as a whole.

What I want is a self-driving car that I can use for the convenience of having a car but then coming home pissed as a newt whilst sitting in the back seat.

Why? Humans are terrible at controlling things, they make lethal errors all the time.

I think people should listen to Elon Musk a little closer. Each time a Tesla has a fatality he states that the Human up the front is there to prevent the vehicle from making a mistake and that they should never be taking their hands off the wheel. Humans are very good predicting behaviour and being proactive. Humans also have the ability to change a decision.

I wouldn't trust any human to drive better than a well-tested automatic system. An automatic system does not make mistakes, it does exactly what it is programmed to do.

Doesn't this depend on what side of the coin.. you are on. It depends on what you cal a 'Mistake' Checking this video (link ia a Tesla driving into a concrete barrier (no accident))

Is this a mistake or is it acting specifically by design ? Either way, it has a rather serious implication on how people percieve automated cars and safety. Going back to your previous point about Humans and error. The computers still need to be programmed by the Human. Do you then blame the human or the machine ?

Another video that shows a Tesla on autopilot making a 'mistake' Without the Human up the front that could have been a serious accident.

There have been a few high profile accidents when a car has been in self driving mode. The Uber case was particularly significant. You could argue that the Human up the front was at fault because they failed to prevent the accident but the car was driving. There is no doubt that the vehicle crashed and killed a person. Self driving cars just aren't ready and will not be able to account for every circumstance. Another thing that Tesla's PR machine is great at promoting is that the number of miles driven on autopilot and the number of crashes. However, that spin doesn't reflect that there is a person up the front that is there to prevent an accident from occuring and although the statistics do support automated cars making less mistakes than the Human equivilant mileage it doesn't really reflect the reality of a fully autonomous vehicle.

I'm of the belief that the technology is much further way than people would want us to believe.

 

[Aictos]

I wouldn't trust any human to drive better than a well-tested automatic system. An automatic system does not make mistakes, it does exactly what it is programmed to do.

That is a flawed argument because a automatic system can and will make mistakes.

As a example take the Class 700s that are used on Thameslink, they are automatically aware if a station has a short platform and if so they ensure those doors that are not platformed are not released by the driver however this week I was travelling on a 12 car Class 700/1 calling at a station that has 12 car platforms on all lines yet the automated announcement that was played pre arrival warned that the next station was stopping in a short platform. Everything else worked fine, this is the same Class 700/1 that somehow thought on the approach to Luton Airport Parkway that the next station was Gordon Hill and before you ask, the driver had entered in the correct CIS Code.

That 700/1 is programmed to warn passengers of short platforms and to highlight which carriage they need to be in to get off it so by your judgement the Class 700/1 above never made those mistakes?

Equally while humans can make mistakes, so can automated systems, take Alexa who can't tell the difference between St Alban's UK and St Alban's USA even though it would have been programmed into her the differences plus she should be intelligent enough to know that if she's located in the UK then it would be the UK St Alban's that is wanted.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think people should listen to Elon Musk a little closer. Each time a Tesla has a fatality he states that the Human up the front is there to prevent the vehicle from making a mistake and that they should never be taking their hands off the wheel. Humans are very good predicting behaviour and being proactive. Humans also have the ability to change a decision.

That's because Tesla has what is essentially a driver-assist system. It has not been developed, tested or proven to anything like the extent to which a genuine unsupervised self-driving system would need to be.

I'm of the belief that the technology is much further way than people would want us to believe.

I would agree that unsupervised self-driving cars are a long way off, but will arrive eventually. Automatic operation of trains and aircraft are a much simpler problem (because with a train you do not need to deal with spatial awareness in the same way, just linear speed, and a detected obstruction just means "stop", and with an aircraft you keep them much further apart), and I would expect those to be along much sooner. I retain my view that DOO is a blip and "GOO" (guard-only operation) will pervade the railways within 50 years.

Of course in the meantime driver-assist functions will get ever better.

 

[ComUtoR]

That's because Tesla has what is essentially a driver-assist system. It has not been developed, tested or proven to anything like the extent to which a genuine unsupervised self-driving system would need to be.

Yep, totally not designed to be "autopilot" or "full self driving mode" Tesla is marketing self driving but the small print is that its "in testing or beta" and you still need to be in control. It's this snake oil approach that causes such a distrust of automation.

I would agree that unsupervised self-driving cars are a long way off, but will arrive eventually.

Same here, its coming, just not yet. Autonomous cars need to be like the DLR and have their own self contained systems. Its very clear that they cannot deal with the unknown or anything that goes beyond their capability. Someone suddenly walking out into the road is still gonna die and won't change because the vehicle is automated. You need to remove the variables to get automation to be successful.

I retain my view that DOO is a blip and "GOO" (guard-only operation) will pervade the railways within 50 years.

Not sure what that has to do with the price of fish but I'll bite. DOO - Bad, GOO - Bad, DCO - I like. Similar to my view on automation. Having all these new safety features like lane keep assist and adaptive cruise control etc is something I fully support. When computers and the Human work together it is a lot better. We need technology to support us, not replace us. Automation - bad, Driver assist - I like

Of course in the meantime driver-assist functions will get ever better.

I have lane keep assist but its permanently turned off. On my previous car, there was just visual feedback but with my current car it gives visual, audio, and shakes the steering wheel. I've driven with a lane keep system where it would activley steer the car but its decision making was horrendus and it would often steer you into traffic. My car, can park itself but its bloody awful. However, I do like having a parking camera and 360 sensors. I saw a really modern version of the 360 cameras (Merc EQS demo) and its phenomenal. My car can automatically depart a parking space.. Kerbed my alloys though as it drove directly into the kerb !

 

[stuu]

London is making excellent progress with Dutch style segregation, while any new development should mandatorily include it.

Yes, however none of it is entirely segregated. We don't build subways in this country anymore as a rule so the idea of removing traffic lights just isn't possible.

I'm also not sure how the ethical issues are ever going to be resolved either - I.e. does the car get programmed to sacrifice itself (and the occupant), if the alternative is crashing into a group of toddlers?

I think people should listen to Elon Musk a little closer. Each time a Tesla has a fatality he states that the Human up the front is there to prevent the vehicle from making a mistake and that they should never be taking their hands off the wheel. Humans are very good predicting behaviour and being proactive. Humans also have the ability to change a decision.

Humans are absolutely useless at doing monotonous jobs which very occasionally need them to react quickly when something goes wrong though

 

[ExRes]

I wouldn't trust any human to drive better than a well-tested automatic system. An automatic system does not make mistakes, it does exactly what it is programmed to do.

And then along comes DarkSide .......

 

[edwin_m]

I wouldn't like to be a pedestrian that gets hit by that!

Eeek. That looks specifically designed to chop the legs off any pedestrian or cyclist who gets in the way. Shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a public area.

 

[172007]

Of the debate about driverless cars here one thing has been missed. I believe it will actually increase congestion and could gridlock the road network in cities etc.

If we have true driverless cars (call them pods) that are fully automated and don't need a driving licence etc to be used then this is an expected scenario. I go to meet my 5 mates in the centre of town to go on the lash. We all get in our pod as no one will share a pod because why would you. An avg household would have 2.4 pods plus a family pod on the drive if there is a enough space. If pods can be used by the kids to go to meet their mates then, you have gone from the number of cars on the road being limited to age, driving licence, lack of intoxication and income to just about the whole population using a pod once every 24hrs. Imagine every kid over the age of 8 turning up at 08:30 for school in a pod.

If a good proportion are pod taxi's then each journey generates an extra journey for the pod to be used as it needs to get you and 3 journeys if the pod cannot be immediately utilised and has to go to a pod park to await its next duty.

 

[PTR 444]

I go to meet my 5 mates in the centre of town to go on the lash. We all get in our pod as no one will share a pod because why would you.

Well if you all lived nearby, it would make perfect sense to begin the drinking party in the pod! No risk of being pulled over if there’s no driver required...

 

[Domh245]

Yes, which is why you have extensive testing.

The other thing to point out is that before it even gets to testing, it'll have been extensively developed by hundreds of individuals working at their own, comfortable pace - which increases the chance of errors being picked up and resolved. Compare that to the single person, working on reflexes making their split second decisions..