East Anglia fleet future cascade options

[ainsworth74]

Could one option, with some modifications, for the 360s to join their 380 classmates in Scotland? Thus eliminating the 318 fleet* and with the addition of their HEX classmates increase capacity in the Glasgow area?

I believe the 380s are a stepping stone between 'Desiro UK' and 'Desiro City' so it is unlikely they could be easily modified to be compatible. More likely would be for them to be fettled to join someone's 350s.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Could one option, with some modifications, for the 360s to join their 380 classmates in Scotland? Thus eliminating the 318 fleet* and with the addition of their HEX classmates increase capacity in the Glasgow area?

*assuming the 314s are being binned first.

Class 360 and Class 380 are incompatible, unfortunately.

 

[notlob.divad]

I'm hoping that the availability of the 321's would encourage the Welsh Assembly and/or Westminster to rush through an Electrification plan for the Valleys, 94 4 car units would be enough to cover the whole Network and have spares for lengthening peak services, especially considering that the bulk of the valleys network is currently either 4 car pacers, 15 of which are already heading for the scrap heap in 2019 (total length of roughly 62 metres in comparison to an 80 metre class 321) or a 2 car class 150 (roughly 40 metres).

With the surplus 319s as well, there certainly is a good case for pushing on with electrification from a rolling stock point of view. However, I am not sure rushing through a plan would be a good idea at this moment. Looking at the issues on the Great Western, and the continued hold up on the North West Electrification. Plus the, TPE route and MML routes that are well into the planning stage. 'Rushing through' anymore at this point would be a disaster waiting to happen.

The Valleys are clearly on the WGs agenda, and will likely happen at some point, however with the amount of EMUs becoming available I do think we will still have a surplus of units for some time as we won't be able to get wires up quickly enough.

 

[43096]

Whoever suggested Merseyrail has clearly missed that there is already tenders returned and being decided upon for brand new rolling stock. Merseytravel / Merseyrail / local politicians who oversee these bodies have boxed themselves in with this as any back down at this point to cascaded stock would be political suicide.

I do think it leaves Northern in a bit of a quandary. There are now clearly some options available better than refurbishing the 319s, but with the franchise agreement already being committed to and leasing contracts signed, it would surely be an expensive get out to change their plans now.

When will these units actually become available to the TOCs?

Also which units are already DDA compliant and which need work?

Of the 319s, I believe none of the first batch of 20 units have had PRM modifications. Some of the second batch of 12 have, but I don't have a list to hand of which ones.

 

[notlob.divad]

Of the 319s, I believe none of the first batch of 20 units have had PRM modifications. Some of the second batch of 12 have, but I don't have a list to hand of which ones.

Sorry I was meaning those of East Anglia's fleet.

 

[northwichcat]

I do think it leaves Northern in a bit of a quandary. There are now clearly some options available better than refurbishing the 319s, but with the franchise agreement already being committed to and leasing contracts signed, it would surely be an expensive get out to change their plans now.

Things can change but only if it suits all parties. For instance, look at what happened when LM 150s were released. 4 x 156s which were leased to Northern were returned to the ROSCO early to be leased to EMT. However, that suited all parties - Northern got a lot more than 4 x 150s in exchange, the off-lease 150s were leased again (good for the ROSCO), the 4 x 156s which went to EMT were on a longer lease due to EMT's franchise end date (again good for the ROSCO) and it suited DfT who had identified a need for more capacity for Northern and were getting criticised for letting the Northern franchise on a 'no growth' basis.

However, with the 319s being Porterbrook owned and the Anglia EMUs not being Porterbrook I imagine to change the Northern deal you'll need to find an operator interested in a large fleet of 319s.

 

[notlob.divad]

Things can change but only if it suits all parties. For instance, look at what happened when LM 150s were released. 4 x 156s which were leased to Northern were returned to the ROSCO early to be leased to EMT. However, that suited all parties - Northern got a lot more than 4 x 150s in exchange, the off-lease 150s were leased again (good for the ROSCO), the 4 x 156s which went to EMT were on a longer lease due to EMT's franchise end date (again good for the ROSCO) and it suited DfT who had identified a need for more capacity for Northern and were getting criticised for letting the Northern franchise on a 'no growth' basis.

However, with the 319s being Porterbrook owned and the Anglia EMUs not being Porterbrook I imagine to change the Northern deal you'll need to find an operator interested in a large fleet of 319s.

Agreed, Porterbrook will not be happy with Northern backing out of the lease at this point without another operator taking on the 319s. And if I was another operator who could make use of the 319s why would I want them 319s when there is the fleet from Anglia I could use without complex wheeling and dealing.

 

[northwichcat]

Agreed, Porterbrook will not be happy with Northern backing out of the lease at this point without another operator taking on the 319s. And if I was another operator who could make use of the 319s why would I want them 319s when there is the fleet from Anglia I could use without complex wheeling and dealing.

I've just thought of another scenario - if the next LM franchise winner goes for 360s or/and 379s instead of 323s then Porterbrook would have a fleet of 323s with nowhere to go. In that event they might be more than happy for Northern to return 27 x 319s in exchange for a greater number of their 323s despite not originally wanting Northern to lease their 323s.

 

[southern442]

Northern need 18 two-car emu's so the 170 fleet could contribute to that. You could also throw in the 156's and 153's.

The valley lines electrification could give a home for the 321's, as there are plenty of them to go around.

379's could go to c2c to supplement the 387's.

360's could be gangway-fitted and sent to London Midland to work with 350's.

 

[transmanche]

The 365's are only 20 years old but now they're going from GN I can't see a home for them either.

Or maybe up North?

The 365s would have made the perfect unit for a joint Northen/ScotRail Newcastle-Edinburgh stopping service, but with TPE services planned to be extended from Newcastle to Edinburgh, there's probably no real place for such a service now.

 

[northwichcat]

Northern need 18 two-car emu's so the 170 fleet could contribute to that. You could also throw in the 156's and 153's.

The additional 18 for Northern have to be 170s or equivalent in performance and quality to a 170 so any more 156s would have to be in addition to those 18. Either Arriva didn't want 153s or the ROSCOs have decided they don't have a post-2019 future.

 

[southern442]

The 365s would have made the perfect unit for a joint Northen/ScotRail Newcastle-Edinburgh stopping service, but with TPE services planned to be extended from Newcastle to Edinburgh, there's probably no real place for such a service now.

I doubt the TPE trains will be stoppers though, so the demand might still be there.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Agreed, Porterbrook will not be happy with Northern backing out of the lease at this point without another operator taking on the 319s. And if I was another operator who could make use of the 319s why would I want them 319s when there is the fleet from Anglia I could use without complex wheeling and dealing.

The Class 319 units do benefit from being dual voltage, they offer re-use options on 750V DC as well as 25kV AC.

 

[RobShipway]

If the class 379's are replaced where would they go? I presuming that they would go to either GWR to work alongside the class 387 fleets or perhaps to Northern to replace the class 319's, given by the time the Aventra fleet arrive with AEA, the class 319's will be 35 - 40 years hold. Or would the class 319's go to C2C?

With regards to the class 360 units, I suspect they will join the class 360 units that will be off lease from the Heathrow Connect services when Crossraol starts, which I am presuming possibly means that they are off to Scotland for Glasgow - Edingburgh stopping services?

 

[F Great Eastern]

If the class 379's are replaced where would they go? I presuming that they would go to either GWR to work alongside the class 387 fleets or perhaps to Northern to replace the class 319's, given by the time the Aventra fleet arrive with AEA, the class 319's will be 35 - 40 years hold. Or would the class 319's go to C2C?

With regards to the class 360 units, I suspect they will join the class 360 units that will be off lease from the Heathrow Connect services when Crossraol starts, which I am presuming possibly means that they are off to Scotland for Glasgow - Edingburgh stopping services?

I would be very surprised that the 360s would not be all together come the end of this, it seems very logical. I'm sure that someone would find use coupling four cars to five cars, although operationally it would be more useful if they were all four cars. They are out and out suburban units though, no tables at all and 3+2.

379s are really configured totally for airports inside of them, I can imagine that operators might want to make some tweaks to them before they put them in service, depending on where they end up. I still think they shouldn't be heading anywhere personally. They are excellent for what they do.

 

[NotATrainspott]

If the class 379's are replaced where would they go? I presuming that they would go to either GWR to work alongside the class 387 fleets or perhaps to Northern to replace the class 319's, given by the time the Aventra fleet arrive with AEA, the class 319's will be 35 - 40 years hold. Or would the class 319's go to C2C?

With regards to the class 360 units, I suspect they will join the class 360 units that will be off lease from the Heathrow Connect services when Crossraol starts, which I am presuming possibly means that they are off to Scotland for Glasgow - Edingburgh stopping services?

No, Scotland's rolling stock situation is settled now for a long time. The interesting possibility opened up here for us is that the Stadler product could be the ideal replacement for the HSTs when the time comes a decade from now. A fleet of articulated 6x23m equivalent 100mph bi-mode InterCity sets would be able to use the wires between Dunblane and Aberdeen/Inverness while still being able to run to Edinburgh via Fife.

 

[MCR247]

I doubt the TPE trains will be stoppers though, so the demand might still be there.

Will the path though? :?

 

[AlexNL]

Electrify the MML beyond Bedford and use the 360s, 365s and/or 379s on EMT services instead of Sprinters?

 

[ScotGG]

Can someone please explain the relevance of 465s to the subject of this thread?

If you read back its because 321s could well be scrapped despite being quite young thus making it perhaps more likely that trains such as the Networkers could also be scrapped too in the near future, given their unsuitability for their current roles (cannot run in 12 car formations for many diagrams given infrastructure issues on Southeastern routes)

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Electrify the MML beyond Bedford and use the 360s, 365s and/or 379s on EMT services instead of Sprinters?

Bangs head against a brick wall.

(Carefully checks it's not a bridge parapet at Barrow on Soar)

 

[Clarence Yard]

The 360 stock are the most interesting as they have real potential for a number of TOCs (although LM bidders will be very interested) and are relatively cheap. The 379 owners need to get real about their lease prices and the current internal configuration isn't ideal. They will be harder to place without some hard negotiations.

The 321 fleet? Some could go to Wales if it ever gets wired but most will probably accompany the 317 fleet to the scrapyard.

The 156 fleet could be a good quick fix for East Midlands to drive out some 153 units but the 170 units could go a number of ways. I wouldn't even rule out GWR at this stage.

The Porterbrook PRM conversion for the 153 fleet (effectively recreating a 155) is relatively cheap so I wouldn't rule them completely at this stage although they and the rot box 150 units that other TOCs have must be favourite to get binned before too long.

Mk 3 coaches? The charter boys will love them.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

The 360 stock are the most interesting as they have real potential for a number of TOCs (although LM bidders will be very interested) and are relatively cheap. The 379 owners need to get real about their lease prices and the current internal configuration isn't ideal. They will be harder to place without some hard negotiations.

The 321 fleet? Some could go to Wales if it ever gets wired but most will probably accompany the 317 fleet to the scrapyard.

The 156 fleet could be a good quick fix for East Midlands to drive out some 153 units but the 170 units could go a number of ways. I wouldn't even rule out GWR at this stage.

The Porterbrook PRM conversion for the 153 fleet (effectively recreating a 155) is relatively cheap so I wouldn't rule them completely at this stage although they and the rot box 150 units that other TOCs have must be favourite to get binned before too long.

Mk 3 coaches? The charter boys will love them.

I keep wondering about the Class 379 units going onto the GWML.

Heathrow Express will need more stock if they get to run Heathrow Express to Reading when the Western Rail Access opens, if they don't get the nod, there's the opportunity for GWR to run services from beyond Reading, Maidenhead and Slough into Heathrow - perhaps as far as Oxford - which would make use of extra Electrostar stock though the 100mph v 110mph top speed is an issue.

How do you keep that stock busy for 3 or 4 years until WRAtH is completed, similarly, Class 360 stock is ideal for East West Rail, but how do you keep that stock busy until it's finished too ?

 

[Class 170101]

When is East West Rail supposed to be finished? It was supposed to be 2019 but possibly delayed. The 360s and 379s won't be available until 2019 / 2020.

Also did the 379s not have a Section 54 agreement in place - meaning TOC has to take them?

 

[Domh245]

Heathrow Express will need more stock if they get to run Heathrow Express to Reading when the Western Rail Access opens, if they don't get the nod, there's the opportunity for GWR to run services from beyond Reading, Maidenhead and Slough into Heathrow - perhaps as far as Oxford - which would make use of extra Electrostar stock though the 100mph v 110mph top speed is an issue.

Could they not go through a similar process to the 350/1s essentially being upgraded to a 387? Are there many major differences between the 379s and the 387s other than motors & software?

How do you keep that stock busy for 3 or 4 years until WRAtH is completed, similarly, Class 360 stock is ideal for East West Rail, but how do you keep that stock busy until it's finished too ?

May not be ideal but warm storage if nothing else. You could even borrow a few units for NR to play around with the IPEMU project?

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Could they not go through a similar process to the 350/1s essentially being upgraded to a 387? Are there many major differences between the 379s and the 387s other than motors & software?

I'd guess it might be possible, I think the first 110mph Electrostar was a modified Class 379 on test, but as ever, it'll depend on costs etc. If they can be modified for 110mph, MML to Corby would be the obvious option.

May not be ideal but warm storage if nothing else. You could even borrow a few units for NR to play around with the IPEMU project?

Just warm storing the Class 360 and Class 379 fleets is a task and a half, without maybe adding some Class 321s into the mix.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

When is East West Rail supposed to be finished? It was supposed to be 2019 but possibly delayed. The 360s and 379s won't be available until 2019 / 2020.

Also did the 379s not have a Section 54 agreement in place - meaning TOC has to take them?

Don't know on the Section 54, if there was, it would suggest a new home has been found.

East West Rail - 2019 to 2024. Significant delivery in CP5, completion in CP6 from memory.

 

[F Great Eastern]

I'd guess it might be possible, I think the first 110mph Electrostar was a modified Class 379 on test, but as ever, it'll depend on costs etc. If they can be modified for 110mph, MML to Corby would be the obvious option.

Just warm storing the Class 360 and Class 379 fleets is a task and a half, without maybe adding some Class 321s into the mix.

That was kind of my point in the other thread - so many trains are being ordered that we don't know what to do with perfectly serviceable fleets such as the ones we are talking about. It's madness.

As I said in the other thread, I'd have replaced the 317/321 fleet with new build Bombardiers scrapped the 317s, cascaded the 321s and retained the 360/379s, for the industry and the rolling stock merry go round as a whole it would have been better.

Instead we're talking about finding work for 200 modern EMU carriages and almost 400 carriages of 321s. Good luck with that.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

That was kind of my point in the other thread - so many trains are being ordered that we don't know what to do with perfectly serviceable fleets such as the ones we are talking about. It's madness.

As I said in the other thread, I'd have replaced the 317/321 fleet with new build Bombardiers scrapped the 317s, cascaded the 321s and retained the 360/379s, for the industry and the rolling stock merry go round as a whole it would have been better.

Instead we're talking about finding work for 200 modern EMU carriages and almost 400 carriages of 321s. Good luck with that.

It doesn't matter though, or Angel wouldn't be spending £600m on new Bombardier stock.

 

[F Great Eastern]

It doesn't matter though, or Angel wouldn't be spending £600m on new Bombardier stock.

Way it works for Angel Trains is like this on the resultant cascades

317s - they'd be scrapped even if only they were replaced since they're life expired
321s - GA order makes them hard to place - not Angel Trains problem, don't own them.
360s - they'll be easily redeployed elsewhere.
379s - Not Angel Trains problem, don't own them, make more 321s redundant.

Pretty good deal for them all around, they get rid a pile of life expired stock, get a massive new deal on a franchise they had relatively little on before, cascade 21 EMUs which there will be no shortage of takes for, and a competitor is left with a pile of almost 100 mid life trains that they have no work for.

All it really does is make Angel trains position against other leasing companies stronger because the amount of surplus mid-life stock that is going to be around isn't on their books.

I wish Eversholt good luck with the 321s!

 

[158756]

It's a great deal for Angel, and fantastic news for the rail users of East Anglia, but wasn't there once a rolling stock strategy?

A strategy by which the DDA deadline for Pacers is likely to be missed and deals have just been signed to keep the 150s in work for another decade but the 321s look destined for Booths at 30 seems rather confused.

This would be ideal for cascades had electrification gone to the original schedule of course. Suspiciously so. Has someone not got the memo yet?

 

[F Great Eastern]

It's quite ridiculous, I never thought I'd get to a stage where I'd say that the DFT have gone mad and are letting train orders spiral out of control, having spent the last decade arguing the reverse and the gross overcrowding caused by their micromanagement.

It's the situation with the 379s that makes me laugh the most, that's just pure lunacy, they're buying a new airport fleet to replace a bunch of 4-5 year old specifically built airport rolling stock. Someone is now going to have to foot the bill to refit them no doubt.

It makes no sense whatsoever and the presence of such trains already on the cast-off market at 5 years old leaves us with the knock on effect of having so many 321s that are going to end up going to the scrapyard.