East Coast franchise discussion (Previously: Rumour VT/Stagecoach to win)

[northwichcat]

Rumours are circulating that Inter City Railways Limited (90% Stagecoach, 10% Virgin) are favourite to win the East Coast franchise which have coincided with a share price increase for Stagecoach of 0.5%.

Does anyone know the date the franchise will be announced. The DfT franchise schedule just says 'November 2014.'

 

[Masboroughlad]

Source of rumour?

 

[Class377/5]

Its been reported in a few papers.

 

[Monty]

A question for those who may know, hypothetically speaking if Inter City Railway's bid was successful would they use the Virgin brand or something different?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would be surprised if Virgin's involvement was *not* for the brand, as licensing the brand is a very significant part of Virgin Group's business.

That does of course mean "VT" to Scotland both east and west, which is perhaps surprising, even if the ownership is different (WCML is majority Virgin). Though I imagine that would be politically a very popular move by the Government, given how much public opinion was in support of VT when First almost took over the WCML franchise.

It would also mean Stagecoach involvement in all three of the north-of-London mainlines.

Neil

 

[thenorthern]

I would think they would use Virgin if they won, many companies such as Virgin Media and Virgin Radio use that name despite not being owned by Virgin.

I think the Dft will give it to Virgin/Stagecoach this time as both NXEC and GNER both failed financially and Virgin Rail Group bid both times also with the notorious 2012 WCML fiasco they will be to scared to face up to Richard Branson if another ECML franchise fails again.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Interesting if it happens, what with that result meaning Stagecoach controlling both routes from London to Yorkshire as well as both routes from London to Scotland.

Who needs competition, it's not as though Stagecoach are notorious for price-gouging...oh.

Still, they'd be better than First Group's very own version of amateur hour.

 

[higthomas]

I think the Dft will give it to Virgin/Stagecoach this time as both NXEC and GNER both failed financially and Virgin Rail Group bid both times also with the notorious 2012 WCML fiasco they will be to scared to face up to Richard Branson if another ECML franchise fails again.

If that has any influence on the decision, I would be appalled. Franchising should be about getting the best outcome, not satisfying public demands.

I personally don't want them to win, simply because RB annoys me, and I don't like how his brand seems to satisfy the public, whatever Virgin trains might do, and however claustrophobic their trains might be.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Interesting if it happens, what with that result meaning Stagecoach controlling both routes from London to Yorkshire as well as both routes from London to Scotland.

It'd mean a recognition that the real competition is the car and air, not another rail operator. Realistically there is only competition between EC and WC for a very small number of journeys, anyway - most people aren't going all the way to Scotland, and south of there there is little or no commonality between the lines.

Neil

 

[wensley]

Preferred bidder is due to be announced on the 19th Nov but could come any time if the DfT get concerned about rumours like this getting into circulation!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't like how his brand seems to satisfy the public, whatever Virgin trains might do, and however claustrophobic their trains might be.

The trains are sort-of irrelevant - they'll be getting IEP, whether they like it or not.

Speaking of which, the proposed IEP interior looks quite nice - not unlike a cross between the Class 395 and the DB ICE3.

Neil

 

[Qwerty133]

Hopefully if that bid does win, they'll be a clause about low priced advance tickets remaining for flows to south yorkshire, as EMT advance fares are already higher than other operators and if stagecoach have both franchises may increase even further.

 

[LexyBoy]

Ugh, I do hope not. I'd be tempted to travel a lot more on the (post-VT?) WCML or XC to avoid lining the vile Souter's pockets.

Hopefully if that bid does win, they'll be a clause about low priced advance tickets remaining for flows to south yorkshire, as EMT advance fares are already higher than other operators and if stagecoach have both franchises may increase even further.

Very unlikely I'd say, TOCs can do as they wish with Advance fares (whilst managers and ministers can use them to defend fare increases). EMT-priced fares are indeed high, and EMT have been aggressive in defending them, such as getting Nottingham removed as a permitted route for Grantham-London and implementing a Penalty Fares scheme which should never have been approved.

I don't think I'm alone in thinking the fares strategy used by Stagecoach/Virgin on the West Coast is dire - comically priced Anytime fares with very restrictive Off Peak tickets leading to deserted "peak" trains and overcrowding the rest of the time. Their Advances are not great either except on the London-Brum/Manchester routes which have an oversupply of capacity a lot of the time.

 

[Masboroughlad]

I am just interested in the new destinations they will offer and from when.

 

[northwichcat]

Interesting if it happens, what with that result meaning Stagecoach controlling both routes from London to Yorkshire as well as both routes from London to Scotland.

Grand Central and Hull Trains aren't Stagecoach related and if GNWR get their way they'll be a 2 hourly Leeds-Euston service via Warrington service (inter worked with a 2 hourly Blackpool-Euston via Warrington service.) GNWR do have Network Rail backing for their plan.

 

[Masboroughlad]

Interesting if it happens, what with that result meaning Stagecoach controlling both routes from London to Yorkshire as well as both routes from London to Scotland.

Grand Central and Hull Trains aren't Stagecoach related and if GNWR get their way they'll be a 2 hourly Leeds-Euston service via Warrington service (inter worked with a 2 hourly Blackpool-Euston via Warrington service.) GNWR do have Network Rail backing for their plan.

Could make for interesting times!

 

[northwichcat]

I am just interested in the new destinations they will offer and from when.

I suspect Huddersfield will be included. A large town with no London link and is being electrified and included in plans from Open Access operators.

 

[Masboroughlad]

Its been reported in a few papers.

I have had a search and the best I can find is an investor advising that Stagecoach shares were still a good proposition as they are in a good position to win EC.

Where else have you read it please? Really keen to have a gander. Ta very much in advance.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I am just interested in the new destinations they will offer and from when.

I suspect Huddersfield will be included. A large town with no London link and is being electrified and included in plans from Open Access operators.

Scarborough? Skegness?! Grimsby? At one stage was there talk of Sheffield and Nottingham?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Nothing in any of the reputable papers...
Or the BBC.

 

[northwichcat]

Hopefully if that bid does win, they'll be a clause about low priced advance tickets remaining for flows to south yorkshire, as EMT advance fares are already higher than other operators and if stagecoach have both franchises may increase even further.

I doubt they'll be any requirement about low priced advance tickets. When it was announced First Group's West Coast franchise bid would see big cuts in Anytime fares, some people were concerned that would be at the expense of the cheaper Advance tickets.

 

[Class377/5]

It was in the Guardian that city traders were predicting it.

http://www.theguardian.com/business...-positive-update-ahead-of-east-coast-decision

Lets not forget TSGN and ET franchises were results were reported ahead of time.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I doubt they'll be any requirement about low priced advance tickets. When it was announced First Group's West Coast franchise bid would see big cuts in Anytime fares, some people were concerned that would be at the expense of the cheaper Advance tickets.

In any case Advance tickets are intended to fill empty seats, so they should be priced at a level that they achieve that (and maximise income - no good if they are too abstractive at too low a price). If a train regularly carries standing passengers, none should be sold on that train.

Neil

 

[RichmondCommu]

If that has any influence on the decision, I would be appalled. Franchising should be about getting the best outcome, not satisfying public demands.

I personally don't want them to win, simply because RB annoys me, and I don't like how his brand seems to satisfy the public, whatever Virgin trains might do, and however claustrophobic their trains might be.

Oh dear, why are you so bitter and angry? Is your anger directed towards the travelling public or Virgin Trains? Or are you angry with both of them? Then again, perhaps its just a case of old fashioned green envy.

 

[westv]

If whoever wins bumps up the price of AP tickets then I'll be annoyed seeing as I have to rely on them to get to work in London.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It was in the Guardian that city traders were predicting it.
http://www.theguardian.com/business...-positive-update-ahead-of-east-coast-decision
Lets not forget TSGN and ET franchises were results were reported ahead of time.

That quote is a week old, and seems to be "market sentiment" about Stagecoach's share price rather than any kind of insider leak on ICEC.
But anything's possible, of course.
The BBC is usually quick to hear of a decision.

 

[Stats]

A question for those who may know, hypothetically speaking if Inter City Railway's bid was successful would they use the Virgin brand or something different?

Well, if domain names are anything to go by, then yes, as Stagecoach registered virgineastcoast.co.uk on the 23rd October.

 

[rebmcr]

Well, if domain names are anything to go by, then yes, as Stagecoach registered virgineastcoast.co.uk on the 23rd October.

What domains were in use during the Virgin Crosscountry franchise? Was it just all under the banner of virgintrains.co.uk? If so, that purchase was probably just a brand-protection measure.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What domains were in use during the Virgin Crosscountry franchise? Was it just all under the banner of virgintrains.co.uk? If so, that purchase was probably just a brand-protection measure.

Yes it was. I guess they have done it in response to the rumours to prevent a domain squatter getting it.

Neil

 

[northwichcat]

Yes it was. I guess they have done it in response to the rumours to prevent a domain squatter getting it.

Neil

Domain squatting was made illegal a few years back. If you brought the domain for £9.50 for no legitimate reason and Stagecoach asked you for it, then you'd have to pass it on to them for £9.50.

Inter City Railways Limited doesn't have the same structure as West Coast Trains Limited, so they may not want to share a website even if they share the brand name. West Coast Trains Limited and Cross Country Trains Limited* are both owned 55% by Virgin and 45% by Stagecoach.

* not Arriva Cross Country Trains Limited or XC Trains Limited.

 

[Mugby]

Very unlikely I'd say, TOCs can do as they wish with Advance fares (whilst managers and ministers can use them to defend fare increases). EMT-priced fares are indeed high, and EMT have been aggressive in defending them, such as getting Nottingham removed as a permitted route for Grantham-London and implementing a Penalty Fares scheme which should never have been approved.

If East Coast went to a majority Stagecoach bid, they would no longer have any reason to disallow Nottingham-Grantham-London as a permitted route would they?