Daniel Hannan.
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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...
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Daniel Hannan.
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phoenixcronin
Member
On Friday I went down to College Green to protest and ended up speaking to quite a few people who had voted leave. When I asked them what kind of trade deal they wanted, a few had no idea and two of them suggested we could be "like Norway" which of course is in the EEA. When I explained that this would mean accepting the free movement of people, one of them said that we wouldn't have to because we're a "bigger economy" and so we have bargaining power.
That has answered my very raw study of Facebook 'friends', all of whom I know in real life to be maybe more reflective than I thought!
Gutfright
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If you skip towards the end, you'll see him saying "We'll have some control over who comes in and in what numbers".
If he's talking about EU members (and it's not clear what he's talking about at that stage to be fair. Typical politician), then he's not talking about the EEA, which would give us zero control.
TheKnightWho
Established Member
We already do have some control, though.
Gutfright
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What's wrong with that?
TheKnightWho
Established Member
We're already not the 5th biggest economy in the world anymore, for example.
Gutfright
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Exactly. That's where Daniel Hannon is being a bit tricksy. Does he mean an EEA-esque arrangement but where we negotiate "some control" over EU immigration, or does he mean signing up to the EEA and giving us "some control" over total immigration but zero control over EU immigration?
I'm f*cked if I know!
Much bigger economy than Norway, no?
Or do you think Norway are in the top five?
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Well, we will see. I still say there is zero chance that the UK will get free trade without free movement of people. And let's be honest, the brexiters have been proven to be wrong about just about everything so far.
And I am also very very strongly in favour of keeping free movement of people. You are a person. Are you aware of just what you want to give up?
phoenixcronin
Member
Well I don't think the EU is going to bend over backwards for us just because we're a big economy, as it may/will encourage other countries to adopt a similar exit, on the basis that they can get access to the single market without free movement.
Just not going to happen
WestCoast
Established Member
If measured by GDP per capita, then Norway is in the top 5 as per the IMF's statistics. Norway also has the highest quality of life in the world measured by the Human Development Index. I'm happy to take the Norwegian model and learn from it.
Whilst Norway is clearly a smaller economy than the UK, due to the huge difference in population, Norway is an extremely wealthy country with a GDP per capita more than twice that of the UK. Norway also has a vast pension fund accumulated through prudent saving of its oil revenue. So you could say that Norway is in less need of lucrative trade deals than the UK.
backontrack
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Gutfright
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When negotiating with the EU, they're not going to consider GDP per capita or the Human Development Index. They're going to consider only the value of trade with the EU, which is what concerns them.
WestCoast
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Harbornite
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Leave ABBA alone. Knowing me knowing you is a decent song!
phoenixcronin
Member
Interesting, Boris the Opportunist just put out a new piece of propaganda in the Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/
Quite a few bizarre things in it, including towards the end where he says "We heard the voices of millions of the forgotten people, who have seen no real increase in their incomes, while FTSE-100 chiefs now earn 150 times the average pay of their employees", which of course has nothing to do with the EU. He also "praises" Cameron and Osborne, after stabbing them both in the back.
There are very few people that I truly detest, but Boris' conduct, flat out lies and opportunistic selfishness throughout this campaign has really made me hate his guts, and I really do hope people see him for what he really is.
Quite a few bizarre things in it, including towards the end where he says "We heard the voices of millions of the forgotten people, who have seen no real increase in their incomes, while FTSE-100 chiefs now earn 150 times the average pay of their employees", which of course has nothing to do with the EU. He also "praises" Cameron and Osborne, after stabbing them both in the back.
There are very few people that I truly detest, but Boris' conduct, flat out lies and opportunistic selfishness throughout this campaign has really made me hate his guts, and I really do hope people see him for what he really is.
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WestCoast
Established Member
Yes, but Norway stands as an example of a highly successful European economy outside the EU, but inside the EEA.
TheKnightWho
Established Member
The point is that it's clearly working for Norway, isn't it.
The fact that the value of trade is high implies that the UK is highly dependent on that trade. If that trade is lost that would hurt both the UK and the EU. As a simple example, the UK imports a huge volume of flowers from the Netherlands each day. If that trade ceased, the UK would have to grow its own (not that easy, otherwise they wouldn't be importing the Dutch flowers), import from elsewhere (but everywhere else is too far), or simply not have flowers.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
The same Netherlands that seems to want its own vote?
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I've come to the conclusion that there's no point trying to explain to anyone. We now know we don't need experts. People with knowledge are out of touch with the man on the street, and just want someone to tell it like it is.
So tell them that yes, we'll keep trading and be able to 'build a wall'. Say that everyone will be sent home (if they don't just decide to go somewhere else of their own accord first). Let them think whatever they want, and they'll go off and get bored - and then forget all about it.
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That's blown out of proportion by the British media, including the BBC. People in NL have been on Twitter complaining about that. Only the extreme far right Party for Freedom wants "Nexit". The Socialist Party wants to stay in the EU but a reformed one. The current government is a grand coalition of centre-right and centre-left and is strongly pro-EU.
backontrack
Established Member
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WestCoast
Established Member
That's the big problem, there is nothing to tell "like it is". The electorate have voted to leave the EU, but not indicated what they want instead. They've voted against something they don't want, but not what they do want.
It's my personal view that we can't have our cake and eat it. If we want the best trade deals with the whole of the Single Market then the only option is to join the EEA or possibly EFTA. It won't be the voters that have to reach a favourable solution, but our politicians and civil servants.
Gutfright
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That's kind of my point. It's in both of our interests to continue trading as we have been. Are the EU really going to jeopardise that by insisting on free movement when there clearly isn't a great deal of appetite for it in Britain?
Are Spain, Poland etc really all that enthusiastic about the rapid depopulation of their countries? Are they going to insist on enforcing free movement even if it comes at the detriment of their own economies? I know many people here believe that they would, that they value principle ahead of pragmatism, but I'm not convinced.
ExRes
Established Member
Drive around this country and you'll find thousands upon thousands of square feet of mothballed greenhouses, the only question to be asked is how the Netherlands can produce and then export them at a lower price than the UK can grow them
The EU is the bigger player here though. At best the UK and EU are in equally strong bargaining positions so I wouldn't see the UK wanting to jeopardise the deal by banning free movement, especially given that British business and the government want it.
The people there clearly want the freedom and are actively taking advantage of it. Banning that would clearly outrage voters.
ExRes
Established Member
I quote from the BBC website, "De Telegraaf's front page suggests that the EU fears the Netherlands will be the next to seek an exit referendum. A poll it carried out shows most voters fearing exit would be "bad for our wallets" and reduce the country's role on the world stage, but their lead over "Nexit" supporters is narrow"
Where I grew up, all the nurseries were closed and sold off for housing. I am sure that's part of the reason - it's not worth growing flowers when the land could be better used.
Why some greenhouses remain empty may be down to issues in getting planning, and even when planning is granted, the problem with developers not in any rush to build so as to keep demand high and prices rising.
Of course if we left the EU and brought up the drawbridge, I'm sure we'd go back to making and growing our own things, right?!
Why some greenhouses remain empty may be down to issues in getting planning, and even when planning is granted, the problem with developers not in any rush to build so as to keep demand high and prices rising.
Of course if we left the EU and brought up the drawbridge, I'm sure we'd go back to making and growing our own things, right?!
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