EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Gutfright]

Finally we agree on something! I mean who would think that an extra three pence on a litre of fuel would be a good idea?

In the short term, we're in for a bit of economic hurt. Anyone who paid attention knew that was coming. Whether or not the long-term benefits make it worthwhile remains to be seen. Bleating and acting all butthurt about it may make you feel better, but it doesn't achieve much else.

And who would believe than an extra £350 million per week would be made available to the NHS because good old Nigel said it would?

To be fair to Nigel (something I dislike doing just as much as you do), he was not responsible for the message on the bus.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Then, in reality, all those that voted Remain or Leave were the thicko's because they all believed made up stuff

Well I certainly think you would be pretty thick to accept an extra three pence on the price of fuel, don't you think?

 

[EM2]

Nothing at all to do with the fact that the remain camp had no answer to the low-paid people who had constantly seen their wages being undercut by mass immigration.

The effect is minimal - https://fullfact.org/immigration/does-immigration-reduce-wages/

This is a relatively small effect

Between 2004-2006 and 2012-2014 the ratio of foreign-born to UK-born workers rose by about 8% in low-skilled and semi-skilled service occupations across the UK as a whole. This was the largest change in any of the four occupational groups classified by the report.

So for a low-skilled or semi-skilled occupation paid £8 per hour, this would work out to a drop of between 1 and 2 pence per hour, each year.

Many issues have an affect on the wages of the lowest paid. Academics commonly list global changes in technology and trade, or national differences in education, attitudes to gender, and union activity as having a much more significant effect than having a higher proportion of immigrants in the workforce.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

And who would believe than an extra £350 million per week would be made available to the NHS because good old Nigel said it would?

Perhaps the same part-untruth emblazoned upon the side of the Leave campaign bus was featured in very many television news broadcasts, so there was a good chance of people seeing it that way.

 

[RichmondCommu]

In the short term, we're in for a bit of economic hurt. Anyone who paid attention knew that was coming. Whether or not the long-term benefits make it worthwhile remains to be seen.

A bit of economic hurt? Oh please surely even you can see that this is just the tip of the iceberg?

My point is many of the people who voted for Brexit didn't even consider the economic consequences, they just believed what the out campaign was telling them.

 

[Domh245]

we're in for a bit of economic hurt

I'd dispute your idea of the severity of the economic crisis that we are approaching. I think it is safe to say that we are in for more than "a bit of economic hurt", think more along the lines of "economic crisis which will have real effects for several years (or decades) down the line"

For example

 

[RichmondCommu]

To be fair to Nigel (something I dislike doing just as much as you do), he was not responsible for the message on the bus.

Well he wasn't denying that before the referendum last Thursday was he? He could have chosen to say that it was nonsense but he didn't.

 

[muz379]

You have a point.

If we join the EEA, then from what you are saying, that's that and we will be unable to have any say in any future trade deals and subject to all the laws and directives that go with it. If we don't, then it will be by WTO rules, as the EU will not make a special arrangement just for us.

Staying in the EU is highly unlikely.

Whoever the new cabinet are, they either accept EEA rules, and risk getting voted out at the next GE after a public outcry

Or they revert to WTO rules, a long term recession, and risk getting voted out at the next GE, due to steep rises in the cost of living and mass unemployment.

I think this is a very astute assessment of the current situation . Hence the current reason why leading leave campaigners are being very quiet . They know if the majority of leave voters want to end freedom of movement then they have completely misrepresented the reality of the situation . Maybe more so than any politician has since Blair with his 45 minute weapons dossier

If the elected leader doesn't want that blood on his hands, then a snap General Election is likely to be called, which will further delay the process.

We have two years for this to happen.

Personally Article 50 should be invoked as soon as the new PM is in place, and a GE called for May 2018, after negotiations will give us a few tough options, and different parties to adopt these options as part of their Manifesto's and let the public vote for the party with the best way forward.

That way if one of the parties policies is to accept EEA with all the rules that come with it, and they get voted into office in May 2018, then it should calm things down.

If they don't get voted in, and the opposition gets voted in who proposes not to adopt EEA due to Freedon of Movement being in the offer and EU Regs, again this would calm things down.

Only issue is once we invoke article 50 we have 2 years to actually negotiate an exit deal before we revert back to the status as a non member . As it gets closer to the end of the 2 years . perhaps 18 months in , the economy would start to suffer over uncertainty again similar to the current tremors over uncertainty . We could of course negotiate for a longer period of time to actually carry out negotiations but given how long these things can sometimes take we would be unwise to start negotiations on that in the lat 6 months in case such agreement cannot be reached .

If we want longer I would argue we should start negotiations asking for longer , in fact I would argue it would be prudent to do that form the offset once article 50 is invoked .These negotiations are going to take longer than 2 years .Perhaps a political consensus will be reached quickly (I.E. full co operation and UK involvement in the single market ) , but from a technocratic and legal point of view the actual negotiations are a complex affair .

However a Hung Parliament wouldn't solve the problem.

And if the SNP continue to clean up north of the border then its rather likely .

 

[ExRes]

What really impresses me so much is how you Remain voters are able to come up with all this info on the benefits of staying in the EU when the entire official Cameron 'led' Remain campaign either wasn't or couldn't be bothered, just think how useful it would have been if Remain could have passed it on to the less educated

I'm also very impressed with the general views on democracy aka democracy on my terms, obviously educational standards have moved on since my time in the classroom

 

[Gutfright]

The effect is minimal - https://fullfact.org/immigration/does-immigration-reduce-wages/

As your link states, the effect of immigration is a 1.88% reduction in pay for semi-skilled and unskilled service workers. As the Bank of England admits immigration has a "small, significant, negative impact on UK average wages".

Even if the effect of immigration was "only" a stagnation in wages for low-waged Britons, the remain camp was wrong to dismiss the concerns of the many people affected so haughtily. When remain politicians keep banging on about how "immigration is good for the economy", there were a good deal of people rightly thinking "Well, I see no evidence of that in my life". You can either try to deal with that fact, or you can continue to wave such people away as being less intelligent and enlightened than you.

Your call.

 

[EM2]

When remain politicians keep banging on about how "immigration is good for the economy", there were a good deal of people rightly thinking "Well, I see no evidence of that in my life". You can either try to deal with that fact, or you can continue to wave such people away as being less intelligent and enlightened than you.

Your call.

You're talking to someone who lives in a borough with 45% of the population being English-born, and less than 20% being White British. The top occupations listed in the borough are Elementary 18.6%, Elementary administration and service 16.8%. The unemployment rate is 8.5%.
If there was anywhere that would be affected by mass immigration deflating wages it would be here.
And yet that borough voted Remain.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

To be fair to Nigel (something I dislike doing just as much as you do), he was not responsible for the message on the bus.

But if he wished to be honest (and did not agree with the message), he could have publically clarified that the message was not realistic/accurate/supported by him before the vote took place. There's no way he could have not realized that lots of people would be influenced by it.

 

[radamfi]

If there is an issue with low pay, it is up to the government to impose an appropriate minimum wage. A lot of jobs wouldn't get filled and the NHS would be screwed without immigration.

 

[jon0844]

Labour has also been pro immigration for years.

Businesses will still want to continue paying low wages, and you can blame tax credits for the ridiculous situation where companies will hire people on the lowest legal pay, and as few hours as possible, so the taxpayer can pay the rest - and people can't work more hours for fear of losing said benefits.

Most, if not all, of the problems are of the UK Government's doing.

I know full well there is a problem with people effectively visiting for a few months at a time, willing to hot bed and live in ropey conditions generally, to earn money that's worth more because it will be taken home, but I don't see why we'd leave the EU over it and then seek to have a worse deal that still allows the freedom of movement (that businesses will still want and likely get).

I'd get rid of tax credits (but that idea was shot down) and increase the minimum wage if anything. At least then businesses would be paying out of their profits, not you and me. But I do get the thinking that was businesses would hire more people if jobs were subsidised, but it created this problem.

Surely would have changed it without leaving the EU. Now we'll STILL not change it.

Maybe in the future, without EU protection on labour laws, companies will be able to abuse staff even more...

 

[Andyjs247]

It seems none of them have a clue how to go forward. Least of all vote leave who don't seem to be in any hurry to Take Back Control. Boris was missing from the commons today. The Conservatives seem to have painted themselves into a corner. But hope no one will notice.

The Labour Party seems to be imploding. And Merkel made it clear the EU won't negotiate with us until such time as we invoke article 50 - which seems perfectly reasonable. So we really don't know what deal might be on the table or not. In the meantime the economy suffers. But bound to get worse when we invoke article 50, and large multinationals begin to go elsewhere. Some migrants will probably go back as the economy shrinks – leave supporters might take some comfort. Overall I'm not really seeing any positives for either side. This is a mess of the Tories making and they deserve to be punished for it at the next election when they can't deliver. So I think the least worst option might be an early election.

 

[Gutfright]

You're talking to someone who lives in a borough with 45% of the population being English-born, and less than 20% being White British. The top occupations listed in the borough are Elementary 18.6%, Elementary administration and service 16.8%. The unemployment rate is 8.5%.
If there was anywhere that would be affected by mass immigration deflating wages it would be here.
And yet that borough voted Remain.

Maybe if the remain campaign had anything to say to people in a similar position, but who didn't live in London, leave wouldn't have won?

 

[RichmondCommu]

Maybe if the remain campaign had anything to say to people in a similar position, but who didn't live in London, leave wouldn't have won?

So why do you think London is different to the rest of the country in that respect? Honest question by the way.

 

[EM2]

Maybe if the remain campaign had anything to say to people in a similar position, but who didn't live in London, leave wouldn't have won?

See also:

The 30 areas with the most people identifying as English all voted Leave. Where's the immigration effect there?

 

[RichmondCommu]

The Labour Party seems to be imploding. And Merkel made it clear the EU won't negotiate with us until such time as we invoke article 50 - which seems perfectly reasonable. So we really don't know what deal might be on the table or not. In the meantime the economy suffers. But bound to get worse when we invoke article 50, and large multinationals begin to go elsewhere.

The thing is once we invoke article 50 the UK will clearly be in a much weaker bargaining position as the clock will then start ticking and it will be a race against time.

 

[Moonshot]

What really impresses me so much is how you Remain voters are able to come up with all this info on the benefits of staying in the EU when the entire official Cameron 'led' Remain campaign either wasn't or couldn't be bothered, just think how useful it would have been if Remain could have passed it on to the less educated

I'm also very impressed with the general views on democracy aka democracy on my terms, obviously educational standards have moved on since my time in the classroom

I voted for Remain as well - in fact its actually the first time I have ever voted in any sort of election in my life as I have never had any interest in politics whatsoever. The conclusion I have drawn from all whats gone on since last Thursday is the very point you have made - and I have drawn that conclusion from researching both what has been going on over the last few month in a number of Select Comittee Meetings on Brexit, and actually chatting to people face to face ( as opposed to Forums ) who had voted leave. The gap in knowledge was stunning to say the least.

 

[TheKnightWho]

The thing is once we invoke article 50 the UK will clearly be in a much weaker bargaining position as the clock will then start ticking and it will be a race against time.

Don't worry though. We're the 5th (sorry, now 6th) biggest economy, and therefore can get whatever we want, right?

 

[muz379]

The thing is once we invoke article 50 the UK will clearly be in a much weaker bargaining position as the clock will then start ticking and it will be a race against time.

But we cannot say we did not know this before . The articles of the treaty are very clear . Why would anyone think we would be able to leave under a different procedure to that outlined in the treaty ?

 

[ainsworth74]

See also:

The 30 areas with the most people identifying as English all voted Leave. Where's the immigration effect there?

Urgh and there's Redcar & Cleveland in that last map

 

[RichmondCommu]

But we cannot say we did not know this before . The articles of the treaty are very clear . Why would anyone think we would be able to leave under a different procedure to that outlined in the treaty ?

Well exactly! An awful lot of people who voted Brexit have been duped and Boris Johnson is still at it even now.

 

[muz379]

Well exactly! An awful lot of people who voted Brexit have been duped and Boris Johnson is still at it even now.

I cannot believe that him and Gove have the audacity to think that they can have informal negotiations with the EU .

Interestingly when I studied the treaty of Lisbon very shortly after it had come into effect my lecturer at the time very briefly skimmed over article 50 stating that nobody would ever invoke it . Maybe their EU law masterclass was delivered by the same lecturer .

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Well, after sinking into a depression at around 7am on Friday, the dust has settled somewhat. I haven't read thìs whole thread so what I'm about to say may have been said already, but here are my thoughts on the situation:

The campaigns on both sides ignored the same people they always ignore in political campaigns, namely the poor. The difference being that the only metric was the overall share of the vote, so the political class got burned. The right wing press probably had more impact than either campaign among voters in deprived areas.

There are a few elephants in the room. Firstly that even before the vote, an awful lot of stock was put in the opinions of so called economic experts. I was a remain voter and still would be if there was a re-run- but the economic argument wasn't one I gave much credence anyway. The remain camp kept banging this drum, not realising that economics, especially in the form it generally takes these days (currency speculators and short-selling are rife) is not an exact science, if it is a science at all.

Secondly, since the vote, news crews have revelled in doing interviews with members of the public in places like Barnsley and Grimsby. The things these members of the public were quite proud to come out with ("it's all these foreigners, taking our jobs!") lead me to believe that a sizeable chunk of the population is deeply, deeply xenophobic. These people might feel justified in their opinions, there lives clearly aren't easy- but unfortunately they've allowed their oppressors (the "haves") to point them in the direction of an expendable target in order to avoid any genuine scrutiny.

Of course, the Labour party (of which I am a member) seems to have pressed the self-destruct button rather than performing their statutory duty as HM Opposition. I would write to my local MP to protest the actions of the PLP but thanks to the toxic xenophobia of the Leave campaign coupled with Tory cuts to mental health services that isn't an option for me.

 

[JaJaWa]

To be fair to Nigel (something I dislike doing just as much as you do), he was not responsible for the message on the bus.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-nigel-farage-nhs-350-million-pounds-live-health-service-u-turn-a7102831.html

 

[Antman]

If there is an issue with low pay, it is up to the government to impose an appropriate minimum wage. A lot of jobs wouldn't get filled and the NHS would be screwed without immigration.

There already is a minimum wage as I'm sure you are well aware but obviously the more people seeking work the more it plays into the employers hand. I don't think anybody is suggesting that all immigration should be stopped just that it cannot continue at the current level.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Perhaps the same part-untruth emblazoned upon the side of the Leave campaign bus was featured in very many television news broadcasts, so there was a good chance of people seeing it that way.

It wasn't untruthful although you could argue it was misleading.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

There already is a minimum wage as I'm sure you are well aware but obviously the more people seeking work the more it plays into the employers hand. I don't think anybody is suggesting that all immigration should be stopped just that it cannot continue at the current level.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


It wasn't untruthful although you could argue it was misleading.

The £350m figure IS demonstrably untrue not merely misleading.

 

[Antman]

The £350m figure IS demonstrably untrue not merely misleading.

Read what it actually says and not what you want it to say!