EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Cowley]

Seriously, given that Boris was dithering about which side to support, it is quite bizarre to support one side so strongly immediately afterwards.

Absolutely right.
Up all night trying to decide which speech to use and then a fervent leaver with no doubt in his mind after that. Ridiculous individual.

 

[bramling]

Seriously, given that Boris was dithering about which side to support, it is quite bizarre to support one side so strongly immediately afterwards.

Is it really so ridiculous? One could be very persuaded on the sovereignty type arguments but still with nagging doubts about potential economic consequences, leading to being torn between two stools until ultimately reaching the point where a decision can no longer be put off. Not saying that this is the case with Boris as I don’t know (none of us does), but it’s a reasonably reasonable position in my view.

A lot of the remain case is, after all, “we know the EU is far from perfect but leaving could be worse”.

 

[mmh]

A lot of the remain case is, after all, “we know the EU is far from perfect but leaving could be worse”.

Indeed. The most misleading party name ever must surely be "Change UK", when its only reason for existing is the founders wanted the status quo and don't want any change.

 

[Ianno87]

Maybe he's brave enough to dare to be different.

No, he'll just happily flim-flam to whatever viewpoint is most likely to get him up the ladder.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Is it really so ridiculous? One could be very persuaded on the sovereignty type arguments but still with nagging doubts about potential economic consequences, leading to being torn between two stools until ultimately reaching the point where a decision can no longer be put off. Not saying that this is the case with Boris as I don’t know (none of us does), but it’s a reasonably reasonable position in my view.

I think the point is that, if you're dithering until the last minute, that would normally mean that you think the arguments are finely balanced. Therefore, if you are being honest, then when you decide to come down on one side or the other, it will be in a very nuanced way, acknowledging that there are good arguments on the other side. Boris didn't do that: It looks like overnight he basically went straight from, not being able to decide which side to support to being absolutely totally committed to Leave. That doesn't seem to be any way to explain that kind of sudden dramatic change of mind in a way that is consistent with intellectual honesty.

 

[Cowley]

I think the point is that, if you're dithering until the last minute, that would normally mean that you think the arguments are finely balanced. Therefore, if you are being honest, then when you decide to come down on one side or the other, it will be in a very nuanced way, acknowledging that there are good arguments on the other side. Boris didn't do that: It looks like overnight he basically went straight from, not being able to decide which side to support to being absolutely totally committed to Leave. That doesn't seem to be any way to explain that kind of sudden dramatic change of mind in a way that is consistent with intellectual honesty.

Exactly.

 

[AM9]

Indeed. The most misleading party name ever must surely be "Change UK", when its only reason for existing is the founders wanted the status quo and don't want any change.

Not really, - the change will be from the stalemate farce that has racked this country since the marginal result of the referendum.

 

[edwin_m]

I think the point is that, if you're dithering until the last minute, that would normally mean that you think the arguments are finely balanced. Therefore, if you are being honest, then when you decide to come down on one side or the other, it will be in a very nuanced way, acknowledging that there are good arguments on the other side. Boris didn't do that: It looks like overnight he basically went straight from, not being able to decide which side to support to being absolutely totally committed to Leave. That doesn't seem to be any way to explain that kind of sudden dramatic change of mind in a way that is consistent with intellectual honesty.

Yet they do say that the most zealous supporters of a cause are those that didn't support it originally.

 

[takno]

Indeed. The most misleading party name ever must surely be "Change UK", when its only reason for existing is the founders wanted the status quo and don't want any change.

There's a world of difference between saying we need change and saying that the change we need is a monstrously foolish destruction of our key international relationship. There are millions of remainers (quite probably the majority) who want to see change, but would prefer it to be a change for the better.

That said, Change UK seems to have quickly moved from a home for disaffected Labour MPs to one for disaffected Tories. I can't see the temptation to vote for a bunch of retired ministers and grandees from John major's pathetic farce of a government. They may be better than the current shower, but that's a desperately low bar

 

[edwin_m]

Unfortunately Change UK seem to me to be heading for a wipeout. It's highly likely there will be a general election within a few months, when they will be up against the main party machines and an electoral system that strongly disadvantages smaller parties. This will be a shame as their moderating influence will be replaced by those with more extreme views of the right or left as may be. Their only slight hope is to come to some sort of accommodation with the LibDems - but they have set themselves against making pacts.

 

[takno]

Unfortunately Change UK seem to me to be heading for a wipeout. It's highly likely there will be a general election within a few months, when they will be up against the main party machines and an electoral system that strongly disadvantages smaller parties. This will be a shame as their moderating influence will be replaced by those with more extreme views of the right or left as may be. Their only slight hope is to come to some sort of accommodation with the LibDems - but they have set themselves against making pacts.

The main caveat I'd put on that is that there's a good chance that the Tories will elect a new leader who completely splits the party within a matter of weeks. At that point they could almost become the continuity Conservative option, with just the lunatic fringe left in the main party.

There's also still a non zero chance that the same could happen with Labour, but they've stepped back from the brink quite a lot in the last month or so.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

As an aside, I do wonder whether ChangeUK have shot themselves in the foot by choosing such a vague name. When the SDP was founded back in the 80's, their name, Social Democratic Party, instantly identified a strong political philosophy that millions of people would instinctively identify with. But the name, ChangeUK, is so vague as to be virtually meaningingless. Unlike 'Conservatives' or 'Labour' or 'Liberal Democrats' or even 'UKIP', the name doesn't indicate any underlying philosophy. Probably everyone in the UK wants change of some sort, but without saying what kind of change you want, you don't get anywhere. (A bit like 'Brexit means Brexit' really )

 

[3141]

The main caveat I'd put on that is that there's a good chance that the Tories will elect a new leader who completely splits the party within a matter of weeks. At that point they could almost become the continuity Conservative option, with just the lunatic fringe left in the main party.

There's also still a non zero chance that the same could happen with Labour, but they've stepped back from the brink quite a lot in the last month or so.

As William Hague commented recently, there is a possibility that the next leader of the Conservative Party will be its last.

As a former History teacher (more than 40 years ago) I think there are parallels between the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846, which split the Tories, and Brexit. After 1846 it took 20 years before politicians completed realigning themselves into two main parties. We can't tell what pattern of realignments may emerge by 2035 - 2040, and I'm unlikely to be around to see it, but the Tories as they are at present have too many differences to be contained within a single political party and each wing of the party is finding the other increasingly intolerable.

The Labour Party has been able to avoid such obvious divisions because it hasn't so far had to try to resolve the Brexit questions, but that may change. Even trying to avoid doing anything to show up divisions can itself cause division.

 

[EM2]

The main caveat I'd put on that is that there's a good chance that the Tories will elect a new leader who completely splits the party within a matter of weeks. At that point they could almost become the continuity Conservative option, with just the lunatic fringe left in the main party.

Apparently, Mark Francois has bet on himself to be the next leader.

 

[Elshad]

As an aside, I do wonder whether ChangeUK have shot themselves in the foot by choosing such a vague name. When the SDP was founded back in the 80's, their name, Social Democratic Party, instantly identified a strong political philosophy that millions of people would instinctively identify with. But the name, ChangeUK, is so vague as to be virtually meaningingless. Unlike 'Conservatives' or 'Labour' or 'Liberal Democrats' or even 'UKIP', the name doesn't indicate any underlying philosophy. Probably everyone in the UK wants change of some sort, but without saying what kind of change you want, you don't get anywhere. (A bit like 'Brexit means Brexit' really )

Agree. The name is a total disaster. No one is going to say to their mates “I’m voting Change UK - The Independent Group”. Just doesn’t flow. Seems like the name was stitched up by some overpaid and under-skilled PR consultant

 

[Struner]

[...]We can't tell what pattern of realignments may emerge by 2035 - 2040, and I'm unlikely to be around to see it [...]

Indeed, I think my teeth will have stopped itching by then. So my curiosity won't be satisfied.

 

[Giugiaro]

ChangeUK should just keep itself named as "The Independent Group". There's plenty of cases were independent members have become successful in other places, especially in Porto where the independent group has made traditional political parties almost insignificant.

 

[AM9]

Apparently, Mark Francois has bet on himself to be the next leader.

What a pompous twit he is. He is so easy to wind up. Even if he did get the hot seat, it would be entertaining to watch.

 

[edwin_m]

Labour continues to sit on the fence: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48099901

The National Executive Committee met to decide the wording of its manifesto for May's European elections.

It rejected the idea of campaigning for a referendum under all circumstances - as supported by deputy leader Tom Watson and many Labour Party members.

But the party will demand a public vote if it cannot get changes to the government's deal or an election.

So the two big parties can stitch up a deal without putting it to the people. Talk about taking back control...

 

[nidave]

The continual use by supposedly liberal people of this poor woman’s death as some leverage for their own political beliefs is disgusting and beneath contempt. Note that very few people in Ireland or Northern Ireland have dared do this, and it’s the British liberal chattering class which have been engaging with this on social media over the past days.

Firstly, the simple principle of hopping on some sort of pro-EU, Remain bandwagon as soon as the news broke is in itself appalling.

Secondly, cynical leveraging of shooting deaths for political grandstanding is something which civilised people rightly condemned for decades when the Troubles were ongoing.

Thirdly, the assessment is grossly wide or the mark. Dissident republicans have very old principles and Brexit features very, very low on their radar.

It is not okay to say that a woman shot dead by a teenager in Derry was because of Brexit. It was not. People who believe so need to read the news about dissident republicans some time, please (or maybe even try speaking to people who live on Creggan?). Shooting at police wagons isn’t something that started after the referendum.

How about from the IRA themselves - it made the UK papers

THE group behind the murder of journalist Lyra McKee have claimed that Brexit is helping them recruit new terrorists.

The New IRA is made up of disgruntled ex-Provisional IRA members combined with dissidents from other groups and has been responsible for a number of attacks and murders over the past eight years.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955133/new-ira-brexit-recruit-next-generation-terrorists/

When I brought up this sort of thing previously I was dismissed. Now the IRA themselves are using bexit as a reason. You going to say that's also "project fear"

 

[AlterEgo]

How about from the IRA themselves - it made the UK papers

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955133/new-ira-brexit-recruit-next-generation-terrorists/

When I brought up this sort of thing previously I was dismissed. Now the IRA themselves are using bexit as a reason. You going to say that's also "project fear"

Haha!

Would love to see Reuters'/Sunday Times' source - I can't recall any dissident group or even the "mainstream" Provisionals ever admitting to a journalist that they have no chance of actually achieving a United Ireland.

The main factors behind recruitment of young people into dissident groups, which has continued at roughly the same pace for as long as I can remember, are:
- Underemployment and a culture of welfare dependency
- Political vacuum at a province level, with no Assembly for two years
- A sense of purpose and belonging not already provided by society
- Vacillation by police on how best to enforce against dissidents
- Low educational achievement
- Irish political culture which cannot agree on what sort of violence, when, is appropriate when asserting self-determination

There hasn't actually been an increase in activity by these people - you see this every Easter. There aren't more punishment shootings than there were a few years ago, and dissidents have fired guns at police for years and years. There is no correlation between recruitment or activity and Brexit.

However, I am enjoying the idea of supposedly liberal people latching onto something a banned terror group supposedly says - regardless of whether they have a point or not - and using it as political leverage. I think to give them that relevance is utterly abhorrent. Shame on you, and everyone who has done this.

 

[nidave]

Haha!

Would love to see Reuters'/Sunday Times' source - I can't recall any dissident group or even the "mainstream" Provisionals ever admitting to a journalist that they have no chance of actually achieving a United Ireland.

The main factors behind recruitment of young people into dissident groups, which has continued at roughly the same pace for as long as I can remember, are:
- Underemployment and a culture of welfare dependency
- Political vacuum at a province level, with no Assembly for two years
- A sense of purpose and belonging not already provided by society
- Vacillation by police on how best to enforce against dissidents
- Low educational achievement
- Irish political culture which cannot agree on what sort of violence, when, is appropriate when asserting self-determination

There hasn't actually been an increase in activity by these people - you see this every Easter. There aren't more punishment shootings than there were a few years ago, and dissidents have fired guns at police for years and years. There is no correlation between recruitment or activity and Brexit.

However, I am enjoying the idea of supposedly liberal people latching onto something a banned terror group supposedly says - regardless of whether they have a point or not - and using it as political leverage. I think to give them that relevance is utterly abhorrent. Shame on you, and everyone who has done this.

So you are telling me I am not aware of whats going on in my own country - bless you.

 

[AlterEgo]

So you are telling me I am not aware of whats going on in my own country - bless you.

And you’re insinuating that your opinion reflects all of Northern Ireland (!) AND happens to be the same thing the “New IRA” think - bless you too.

I’ve family in Creggan and they’ve been there since the estate was built. They’ve seen it all.

 

[berneyarms]

Haha!

Would love to see Reuters'/Sunday Times' source - I can't recall any dissident group or even the "mainstream" Provisionals ever admitting to a journalist that they have no chance of actually achieving a United Ireland.

The main factors behind recruitment of young people into dissident groups, which has continued at roughly the same pace for as long as I can remember, are:
- Underemployment and a culture of welfare dependency
- Political vacuum at a province level, with no Assembly for two years
- A sense of purpose and belonging not already provided by society
- Vacillation by police on how best to enforce against dissidents
- Low educational achievement
- Irish political culture which cannot agree on what sort of violence, when, is appropriate when asserting self-determination

There hasn't actually been an increase in activity by these people - you see this every Easter. There aren't more punishment shootings than there were a few years ago, and dissidents have fired guns at police for years and years. There is no correlation between recruitment or activity and Brexit.

However, I am enjoying the idea of supposedly liberal people latching onto something a banned terror group supposedly says - regardless of whether they have a point or not - and using it as political leverage. I think to give them that relevance is utterly abhorrent. Shame on you, and everyone who has done this.

Although it is, I think, fair to say that Brexit is not helping the ongoing political vacuum in NI, which is one of the factors you list.

 

[Groningen]

Interesting how the local elections of today and brexit will affect the voting. Northern Ireland has by the wat already 2 years no government.

 

[edwin_m]

A united Ireland is probably the only way of ensuring no hard border after Brexit that can't be unpicked by a future UK administration.

 

[ainsworth74]

With Boris I've always assumed that the reason he came down on the side of Leave was that he expected that the referendum result would be for Remain (perhaps somewhat narrowily but still for Remain) and he could then use his support of Leave to rally Eurosceptic MPs and Tory party members to his banner when he stood for the leadership after David Cameron stood down. Sort of going along the lines of "I was your champion in the referendum and I put my heart and soul into it, a vote for me is therefore a vote for a proper Eurosceptic to make sure we challenge Brussels bureaucrats at every turn and assert ourselves!" etc etc. Only problem with that was, er, they won. Which is why I also think he then totally bottled it when Cameron did resign and their was a leadership contest. He didn't expect to actually have to lead Britain through Brexit, something which he didn't actually believe in...

Then again I also think the reason why Cameron included the referendum in the 2015 manifesto was as a sop to the Eurosceptic's which he expected to be able to trade away in the coalition negotiations with the LibDems after another hung parliament. Which would allow him to go back to his party and be very apologetic for having trade it away "but at least we're in Government so can deliver on most of our manifesto". Only he then went and won the damn thing so couldn't trade it away...

 

[Karl]

Who was that lady from Bristol when interviewed on TV couldn't stand another vote. She gave the interviewer a cracking mouthful. It must be on YouTube somewhere but I just can't find it myself.

 

[Strat-tastic]

Who was that lady from Bristol when interviewed on TV couldn't stand another vote. She gave the interviewer a cracking mouthful. It must be on YouTube somewhere but I just can't find it myself.

What, another one?

 

[Karl]

What, another one?

Yes! She was the one! She was the best. Please help me find a youtube clip