Gaelan
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Anyone happen to know the going rate for a TGV?
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Evolyn to investigate cross-Channel rail services (clarified to not include Mobico)
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Speed43125
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€2.7B for 100 trainsets ordered by SNCF. 2018 prices, and includes a maintenance contract. So maybe €35M a pop for someone like Evolyn?
Gaelan
Member
So plausibly within the €1B of funding they're claiming, though who knows how much of that was intended for rolling stock.
That would be the major capital investment, wouldn't it?
And a depot to maintain them in I suppose.
Talking of depots, and assuming this service comes to fruition, where is the most likely place for Evolyn to maintain their rolling stock? My most likely guess would be in an SNCF depot near Gare Du Nord since that's where many other international trains seem to be stabled. Temple Mills Depot just doesn't seem big enough in my opinion.
I would prefer it if they went after a different market. For better or worse, expensive Eurostar have largely sown up the air market to Paris and Brussels. When the Amsterdam service stops, there is little connectivity to compete with air, other than Strasbourg doesn't involve trapsing around Paris.
At this time of year, Geneva is ramping to 20 or more direct flights a day to London. It should be just over 5hrs from London not 7hr.
The whole point of Schengen is that it should matter not which country the train stops in after London, let them exit stamp passports in London like they do in the other direction.
The 'shortage of space' at St Pancras looks rather deliberate. There is a lot of space at that station, both next to Eurostar in the form of various handbag shops, and also behind the EMR platforms that doesn't see much use.
I'm sure that there is a market out there which Eurostar is not capturing but it will be hard for a new competitor. Stratford could be a good hub but the station really needs to be under the main station (poor planning?). Open up Ashord Int'l - but there will be a cost to this- who will pay for the immigration staff, etc? Lille could be a good hub with connections to France & Switzerland , but that would involve co-operation with your competitor. They could try an interchange with DB at Brussels (if DB could up their game). Unfortunately a combination of immigration rules, security and lack of trains makes through running almost impossible and changing trains in the outbound direction will be a big disincentive.
Railways generally rely on there being a low marginal cost of supplying additional capacity. The cost of going from a two to three car dmu is low. Unfortunately I cannot see the new operator's cost being much lower - you will still have crew & leasing costs, overheads, etc. My understanding is that Eurotunnel charges rail operators a fixed cost per passenger. From the railways point of view the incremental cost of running additional trains on the high speed infrastructure will be low but who will benefit - the owners of HS1 & SNCF infrastructure?
My other question is who will pay for the upgrade of facilities at Gare du Nord and indeed who will ensure that there is additional capacity? (I doubt that there will be much of a will on the part of SNCF / E*.) I suspect that infrastucture problems at Paris will be an even bigger issue than in London.
I wouldn't over-estimate the effect of modal split if you try and restrict air journeys. The effect of this would be to encourage people (particulary those travelling with young kids, luggage, etc) to switch to car (if they have one), not to travel at all, then switch to Flixbus or train - in roughly that order. Given that the cross channel rail market is not seen as a social market and thus to be served commercially competition is very welcome (the only competition is other modes). Maybe, though, a slightly more social approach is required (if the is a small effect on the bottom line of opening up Ashford Int'l well so what), certainly if we want to encourage modal split.
Railways generally rely on there being a low marginal cost of supplying additional capacity. The cost of going from a two to three car dmu is low. Unfortunately I cannot see the new operator's cost being much lower - you will still have crew & leasing costs, overheads, etc. My understanding is that Eurotunnel charges rail operators a fixed cost per passenger. From the railways point of view the incremental cost of running additional trains on the high speed infrastructure will be low but who will benefit - the owners of HS1 & SNCF infrastructure?
My other question is who will pay for the upgrade of facilities at Gare du Nord and indeed who will ensure that there is additional capacity? (I doubt that there will be much of a will on the part of SNCF / E*.) I suspect that infrastucture problems at Paris will be an even bigger issue than in London.
I wouldn't over-estimate the effect of modal split if you try and restrict air journeys. The effect of this would be to encourage people (particulary those travelling with young kids, luggage, etc) to switch to car (if they have one), not to travel at all, then switch to Flixbus or train - in roughly that order. Given that the cross channel rail market is not seen as a social market and thus to be served commercially competition is very welcome (the only competition is other modes). Maybe, though, a slightly more social approach is required (if the is a small effect on the bottom line of opening up Ashford Int'l well so what), certainly if we want to encourage modal split.
There are as many as 52 direct flights a day on winter Saturdays!
Snow1964
Established Member
Last years top up order for 15 trains was €590m
which is €39.33m per train, about £34.4m
So around £450m (perhaps £500m with inflation) for 12 trains
Alstom receives new order from SNCF for 15 additional Avelia Horizon very high-speed trains
This is an optional tranche from the Avelia Horizon innovation partnership framework agreement, for an amount of nearly 590 million euro
Roughly £100k per train per month if assume 30 year life (before financing cost)
So even if it is double with financing, £200k per train per month, use it say 20 days a month, (£10k per day), got nearly 1000 seats, then that is only £10 per seat per day. So if 2 round trips (4 journeys) then cost of train is about £2.50 per ticket. Even if train was only half full it's still just £5 per ticket
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Are you sure that you haven't dropped a 0? £200k / train / month = £2.4m p.a. would sound about right. That would amortise the train over 15 years bit bear in mind capital costs. Obviously it will depend whether the lessor bears maintenance charges, it might be a bit lower if not.Last years top up order for 15 trains was €590m
which is €39.33m per train, about £34.4m
So around £450m (perhaps £500m with inflation) for 12 trains
Alstom receives new order from SNCF for 15 additional Avelia Horizon very high-speed trains
This is an optional tranche from the Avelia Horizon innovation partnership framework agreement, for an amount of nearly 590 million eurowww.alstom.com
Roughly £10k per train per month if assume 30 year life (before financing cost)
So even if it is double with financing, £20k per train per month, use it say 20 days a month, (£1k per day), got nearly 1000 seats, then that is only £1 per seat per day. So if 2 round trips (4 journeys) then cost of train is about 25p per ticket. Even if train was only quarter full it's still just £1 per ticket
You are quite right though, if a train does say two round trips per day leasing costs will be a small proportion of total income, maybe £4/seat/journey.
BRX
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I wonder how many seats that is, and how many 400m double deck trains would provide the equivalent.
Snow1964
Established Member
Most flights would be 156-200 seats, those using City airport fleet nearer 100 seats
Depending on train seating configuration, 7-9 trains.
Maybe just 6 trains if it is 1400+ seats
Alstom say upto 740 seats per 200m unit (1480 seats for 400m)
YorkRailFan
On Moderation
For instance, London to Cologne and then onto Frankfurt would be revolutionary, along with the London-Geneva you mentioned.
One could think of a London-Hamburg service which would also be amazing, the issue is that DB has no interest and the UK doesn't want to proceed.
Plans for UK-Germany high speed rail services shelved due to ‘significantly changed economic environment’
Exclusive: Deutsche Bahn declines to say whether Brexit played a role in cancellation
www.independent.co.uk
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It's the first time I see this claim. What's the source? And what would be the season for this refusal?
YorkRailFan
On Moderation
Multiple sources online that you can Google, a big reason that Germany uses is Brexit. Source: The Independent
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Snow1964
Established Member
It's come out of UKs stupid Brexit, basically UK cut access to the European crime and immigration computer (the one used for Schengen etc)
Airports now treat Britain as external travellers for passport and immigration purposes, but there are no dedicated security lanes at most stations
BRX
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Anyone that Germany doesn't want travelling from the UK, they can just get the train from London to France or Belgium and carry on without further checks - I don't see how a direct train would be different.
modernrail
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This is mad! I had no idea there was such a ridiculously high flow between Geneva and London.
It it really true that let’s say approximately 20,000 people total are moving between Geneva and London and vice versa every day?? Who are they??? Geneva is nothing like a Brussels or a Paris which is a natural hub for a lot of other traffic.
When thinking about decarbonising and modal shift, that is a really interesting example to think about. The mind boggles when you think of how many very short haul flights there are from London to places not that far away, with planes been lobbed up to 30,000 feet for not very long at all.
As a matter of interest, how close to capacity is HS1 and does anybody have any idea how close to capacity the French high speed network is?
Brissle Girl
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Presumably in February (which was the example given) it is skiing traffic predominately. Although there is an irony that these flights will themselves be contributing to climate change which may over time reduce the skiing season.
I tried but didn't find anything. Care to share a URL?
modernrail
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Ah yes very true. Skiing it is. I would have thought then the non-ski season numbers are a lot lower.
Me neither. Though I didn't try very hard.
YorkRailFan
On Moderation
Plans for UK-Germany high speed rail services shelved due to ‘significantly changed economic environment’
Exclusive: Deutsche Bahn declines to say whether Brexit played a role in cancellation
www.independent.co.uk
Plans for UK-Germany high speed rail services shelved due to ‘significantly changed economic environment’
Exclusive: Deutsche Bahn declines to say whether Brexit played a role in cancellation
Which gives various non-Brexit reasons for not going ahead with direct UK-Germany trains and says that DB wouldn't comment on Brexit being a factor or not.
If the German government has banned direct trains it isn't mentioned in this article, and it also rather suggests that there isn't in fact a large untapped market that would support such services if only they were permitted.
It's a big hub for international organisations – lots of UN stuff, aid agencies, WHO, WTO, the Red Cross, etc. As well as large employers the nature of the organisations and the people they employ means a very high propensity for international travel.
nwales58
Member
How many HS2 sets should be ordered for Manchester/Glasgow-Newquay? The Geneva discussion amounts to that.
Germany hasn't blocked international services from the UK. DB abandoned its own plans for direct services for a few reasons.
1) Services to the UK require non-UK stations to wall off a platform for more or less exclusive use for UK trains, because of immigration requirements outside Schengen. Doing this at Cologne for a few trains a day was deemed impractical given the demands on platform capacity. Immigration staff also have to be stationed there. At the very least it requires serious investment
2) The original plan was for the train to split in Brussels, with half continuing onto Amsterdam and half to Cologne and Frankfurt. Eurostar now serves Amsterdam so this market is now more competitive
3) The multi-voltage rolling stock that was intended for the route was allocated to other routes, in part because it was less reliable than expected and more maintenance spares were required to reinforce other routes
4) DB also cited low-cost flights affecting the demand for the market, though these have been around for a while
5) Brexit has likely affected the market; the original business case relied on a lot of finance business travel between London and Frankfurt. I don't know if it has disappeared but there was certainly an expectation
6) There may have also been some issues with certification of rolling stock in e.g.France and Belgium, plus channel tunnel safety requirements
Gaelan
Member
Amsterdam Centraal gets away with just a movable barrier, though I've no clue if that approach would work at Cologne.
DanNCL
Established Member
Germany hasn't blocked direct rail services to/from the UK, but it benefits the current UK government to portray it as such.
The reality is that the UK has a bizarre obsession with juxtaposed border controls instead of either doing on train checks or setting up facilities to do the checks at St Pancras, which means the UK insisted that either the UK be allowed to set up juxtaposed border controls at German stations or that arriving passengers have to get off the train with their luggage at Lille to clear the UK border and customs there. Germany refused the UK permission to set up juxtaposed border controls at German stations citing capacity issues and whilst there is some truth to that, there's also likely an element of the German government not wanting to effectively allow the UK control of any German land beyond the UK embassy in Berlin.
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