• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Exit strategy predictions

Status
Not open for further replies.

PTR 444

Established Member
Joined
22 Aug 2019
Messages
2,284
Location
Wimborne
There is no clear exit strategy to the COVID-19 lockdown yet, but at some point, some restrictions are going to have to be lifted in the short to medium term to avoid long-lasting damage to our economy. There's been suggestions of schools reopening before the summer holidays and some non-essential retailers opening in the next few weeks, but there is no definite timescale for these so it leaves the door open to personal interpretation really, when do you think these restrictions will be lifted?

From my point of view, this is what I think will happen:

Exit strategy phase 1: (once new cases start to drop below 1,000 per day)
  • Non-essential retailers including hairdressers and clothes shops can reopen if they limit the maximum numbers of customers in store at once to 15 (5 in smaller shops).
  • Retailers adjacent to each other may be ordered to open on alternating different days to prevent an influx of customers queuing outside.
  • Schools reopen to all pupils, but with different year groups in on different days of the week. Attendance will not be compulsory if students are in a high-risk category or have a key worker job to go to. Cancelled summer exams will not be reinstated.
  • Citizens will be additionally be allowed to leave the house to buy non-essential goods, but only once per day and preferably at the same time as essential shopping and exercise.
Exit strategy phase 2: (once new cases drop below 100 per day)
  • Lockdown to end for citizens not at high-risk or living with anyone in that category.
  • Food outlets can reopen, but for takeaway and home delivery only.
  • Sunbathing and having picnics in parks close to home will be allowed, but police patrols will be increased to ensure people are still observing social distancing rules.
  • Some low-key sports matches can resume behind closed doors.
Exit strategy phase 3: (once an antibody test has been rolled out)
  • All citizens who have had the antibody test and proven they are immune will be given an immunity certificate.
  • Entertainment venues including pubs, gyms, clubs and cinemas can reopen if they only let in people who have and show proof of an immunity certificate.
  • Anyone wishing to travel abroad must have an immunity certificate before doing so. Non-British nationals arriving in the UK must take the antibody test upon arrival or be refused entry.
  • Lockdown will still apply to elderly and vulnerable citizens without an immunity certificate.
Exit strategy phase 4: (once a vaccine has been rolled out and is successful)
  • Nobody will be allowed to leave the UK unless they have an immunity certificate or vaccine.
  • Elderly and vulnerable will no longer need to shield.
  • End to limits on how many people can be in a shop/venue at once.
  • Work from home guidance relaxed.
Exit strategy phase 5: (once half the British population have had the vaccine or developed immunity)
  • All social distancing guidance lifted
  • Travel restrictions lifted.
  • Nightingale hospitals to be reverted back to conference/entertainment venues.
  • Massive 21st century Festival of Britain to take place.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

JonathanH

Veteran Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
18,828
Exit strategy phase 1: (once new cases start to drop below 1,000 per day)
  • Non-essential retailers including hairdressers and clothes shops can reopen if they limit the maximum numbers of customers in store at once to 15 (5 in smaller shops).
  • Retailers adjacent to each other may be ordered to open on alternating different days to prevent an influx of customers queuing outside.
  • Schools reopen to all pupils, but with different year groups in on different days of the week. Attendance will not be compulsory if students are in a high-risk category or have a key worker job to go to. Cancelled summer exams will not be reinstated.
  • Citizens will be additionally be allowed to leave the house to buy non-essential goods, but only once per day and preferably at the same time as essential shopping and exercise.

Hairdressers - no chance, not without PPE for them - more than 15 minutes in close proximity to someone who could potentially be assymptotic. PPE all needs to be directed to the NHS at the moment, there is a long way to go before there is enough for hairdressers. The same goes for many other people working in jobs which require them to be in close proximity to other people.

I think it is likely that a relaxation is made on the basis of age, with everyone else continuing as they currently are. Some of these younger people may have the work from home guidance relaxed while it remains in place for older colleagues. A restriction on travelling more than a certain distance from home might, however, be appropriate.

There would appear to be a few steps to go through before all the steps in your phase 1. Remember, that there is a chance that restrictions have to be reapplied if the numbers of cases start to go up again.
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
14,272
Location
St Albans
There is no clear exit strategy to the COVID-19 lockdown yet, but at some point, some restrictions are going to have to be lifted in the short to medium term to avoid long-lasting damage to our economy. There's been suggestions of schools reopening before the summer holidays and some non-essential retailers opening in the next few weeks, but there is no definite timescale for these so it leaves the door open to personal interpretation really, when do you think these restrictions will be lifted?

From my point of view, this is what I think will happen:

Exit strategy phase 1: (once new cases start to drop below 1,000 per day)
  • Non-essential retailers including hairdressers and clothes shops can reopen if they limit the maximum numbers of customers in store at once to 15 (5 in smaller shops).
  • Retailers adjacent to each other may be ordered to open on alternating different days to prevent an influx of customers queuing outside.
  • Schools reopen to all pupils, but with different year groups in on different days of the week. Attendance will not be compulsory if students are in a high-risk category or have a key worker job to go to. Cancelled summer exams will not be reinstated.
  • Citizens will be additionally be allowed to leave the house to buy non-essential goods, but only once per day and preferably at the same time as essential shopping and exercise.
OK, so what happens if the new case rate increases back (maybe significantly) above 1000 per day? This aspect also apllies to everty paragraph below, i.e. attaining some threshold does not mean that it won't go back up.

Exit strategy phase 2: (once new cases drop below 100 per day)
  • Lockdown to end for citizens not at high-risk or living with anyone in that category.
  • Food outlets can reopen, but for takeaway and home delivery only.
  • Sunbathing and having picnics in parks close to home will be allowed, but police patrols will be increased to ensure people are still observing social distancing rules.
  • Some low-key sports matches can resume behind closed doors.
If those who are not high risk are released from quarantine, does that include elderly and vulnerable citizens who in the next paragraph of yours will still be under current restrictions?

Exit strategy phase 3: (once an antibody test has been rolled out)
  • All citizens who have had the antibody test and proven they are immune will be given an immunity certificate.
  • Entertainment venues including pubs, gyms, clubs and cinemas can reopen if they only let in people who have and show proof of an immunity certificate.
  • Anyone wishing to travel abroad must have an immunity certificate before doing so. Non-British nationals arriving in the UK must take the antibody test upon arrival or be refused entry.
  • Lockdown will still apply to elderly and vulnerable citizens without an immunity certificate.
So what priority will be given as to who gets an antibody test?

Exit strategy phase 4: (once a vaccine has been rolled out and is successful)
  • Nobody will be allowed to leave the UK unless they have an immunity certificate or vaccine.
  • Elderly and vulnerable will no longer need to shield.
  • End to limits on how many people can be in a shop/venue at once.
  • Work from home guidance relaxed.
Elderly aren't needed to shield now, - only high-risk persons.


Exit strategy phase 5: (once half the British population have had the vaccine or developed immunity)
  • All social distancing guidance lifted
  • Travel restrictions lifted.
  • Nightingale hospitals to be reverted back to conference/entertainment venues.
  • Massive 21st century Festival of Britain to take place.

I think that your 'phase 1' is probably at least a year away, (unless the qualifying period is much longer than currerently being proposed i.e. 14-21 days). Do you envisage this being a national qualification or a local one. If local, what restrictions will there be on those from a released area visiting a a location with current restriction still in force?
 
Last edited:

JonathanH

Veteran Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
18,828
Exit strategy phase 5: (once half the British population have had the vaccine or developed immunity)
  • All social distancing guidance lifted
  • Travel restrictions lifted.
  • Nightingale hospitals to be reverted back to conference/entertainment venues.
  • Massive 21st century Festival of Britain to take place.

I'd note that Professor Stephen Powis has just said that "It's highly likely that over time this virus will become established worldwide in populations." Even if half the British population has had the vaccine or developed immunity, all this buys us is the transmission of the virus moving between people, not erradication. While it obviously will have to be the case that the Nightingale hospitals have to go back to their normal use eventually, it still might not be wise to have large gatherings at this point, particularly at the times of year when other health issues are heightened.
 

PTR 444

Established Member
Joined
22 Aug 2019
Messages
2,284
Location
Wimborne
OK, so what happens if the new case rate increases back (maybe significantly) above 1000 per day? This aspect also apllies to everty paragraph below, i.e. attaining some threshold does not mean that it won't go back up.


If those who are not high risk are released from quarantine, does that include elderly and vulnerable citizens who in the next paragraph of yours will still be under current restrictions?


So what priority will be given as to who gets an antibody test?


Elderly aren't needed to shield now, - only high-risk persons.




I think that your 'phase 1' is probably at least a year away, (unless the qualifying period is much longer than currerenly being proposed (14-21 days). Do you envisage this being a national qualification or a local one. If local, what restrictions will there be on those from a released area visiting a a location with current restriction still in force?

In order as I read them:

1. If the case rate increases again, just reintroduce the restrictions. 18 months of rolling restrictions would be much better than nobody being able to leave the house for 6 months straight.
2. Elderly and vulnerable will still need to be under lockdown until phase 4, so no.
3. NHS workers will be at the top of the priority list, followed by other key workers, then people in high risk categories and finally everybody else.
4. Didn't know that until now
5. Are you serious??? Experts are saying that schools should reopen before the summer holidays to prevent kids from missing out on vital education and development until September. Also, the economy will collapse if non-essential retailers cannot open for a year, and no government wants that do they?
5a. I was envisaging this as a national qualification. Local would be too difficult to administer due to some key workers commuting long distances.
 
Last edited:

Meerkat

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2018
Messages
7,546
They are going to have to open the barber/hairdressers within a month or max two!
 

Mogster

Member
Joined
25 Sep 2018
Messages
906
They are going to have to open the barber/hairdressers within a month or max two!

Yes I think so, they were one of the last businesses to close.

With all this talk of “immunity passports” what happens to the unfortunates that fail to produce the specified antibody level? Just wondering... :s
 

Adam Williams

Established Member
Joined
2 Jan 2018
Messages
1,764
Location
Warks
I think it is likely that a relaxation is made on the basis of age, with everyone else continuing as they currently are. Some of these younger people may have the work from home guidance relaxed while it remains in place for older colleagues. A restriction on travelling more than a certain distance from home might, however, be appropriate.

I can appreciate the logic here, but I can't see this going down particularly well.

Yes, we can agree statistically it's safer if you're young. But you're still asking all the younger workers to take an additional risk - and it can make young people incredibly ill - whilst their managers, colleagues and others work safely from home. And what of the younger worker's family and friends who might then be exposed as a result?

I can't see myself being happy to return to the office in the short term at all.
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
14,272
Location
St Albans
Yes I think so, they were one of the last businesses to close.

With all this talk of “immunity passports” what happens to the unfortunates that fail to produce the specified antibody level? Just wondering... :s
They would be correctly classified as not safe to reduce from social distancing measures currently in force.
In order as I read them:

1. If the case rate increases again, just reintroduce the restrictions. 18 months of rolling restrictions would be much better than nobody being able to leave the house for 6 months straight.
Whether it would be like that would depend on how fast the it rose back up again. If the rise was too rapid then there would be little justification in releasing new carriers into the open environmemnt.
2. Elderly and vulnerable will still need to be under lockdown until phase 4, so no.
So, with the likelihood of another 12 months to pass before a vaccine is available for distribution, I think that the elderly but fit (who have been officially categorised as 'vulnerable' by virtue of age alone), are unlikely to put up with the current quarantine for that period if others are unleashed into public places and commercial outlets as you have listed in groups 1 & 2. Don't forget, the senior vote is likely to focus the Governments attention.
3. NHS workers will be at the top of the priority list, followed by other key workers, then people in high risk categories and finally everybody else.
That means that vulnerable groups will be tested after NHS/key workers and high-risk people, and before the rest of the population, i.e. children/young up to 69 yo.
4. Didn't know that until now
With respect, you seemed to be confused between 'high-risk', 'vulnerable' and 'elderly'.
5. Are you serious??? Experts are saying that schools should reopen before the summer holidays to prevent kids from missing out on vital education and development until September. Also, the economy will collapse if non-essential retailers cannot open for a year, and no government wants that do they?
5a. I was envisaging this as a national qualification. Local would be too difficult to administer due to some key workers commuting long distances.
[/QUOTE]
If this is only done nationally, there will be a much longer period of the current conditions whilst the last area's cases come down to the nominal trigger figure that you have suggested. There are areas that haven't seen much of the cases yet, - they are likely to be the last to clear it, so everybody will be just waiting for London as the area with the highest numbers to dip enough to bring the national average down. Menawhile, the infection rage away in (say) Cornwall because the population down there is relatively small (but with a high percentage of cases).
 

JonathanH

Veteran Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
18,828
Also, the economy will collapse if non-essential retailers cannot open for a year, and no government wants that do they?

The possible problem that you miss is that even if non-essential retailers can open, hardly anyone is going to be buying anything. That is the vicious circle of how this situation becomes a depression.

But you're still asking all the younger workers to take an additional risk - and it can make young people incredibly ill - whilst their managers, colleagues and others work safely from home.

Yes, it can and it would be great if the research can identify who is most at risk of becoming incredibly ill and who is likely to be asymptotic.

However, if only the young returned to offices they would still be at less risk than many key workers who are expected to go to their workplace.

And what of the younger worker's family and friends who might then be exposed as a result?

Again, exactly the conundrum key workers are facing.

I can't see myself being happy to return to the office in the short term at all.

Yes, I can't see when I will be going back to the office either but I also note that the economy isn't set up for a large number of people never to leave their homes.
 

Adam Williams

Established Member
Joined
2 Jan 2018
Messages
1,764
Location
Warks
Again, exactly the conundrum key workers are facing.
Definitely. I feel very fortunate that the work I do can be done remotely and to be honest, a little guilty that e.g. by going to the supermarket I'm propping up a business reliant on people putting themselves at risk in order to sell me food and other essentials. Where possible I've been trying to organise contact free deliveries instead.

Yes, it can and it would be great if the research can identify who is most at risk of becoming incredibly ill.

We can hope. It seems like the sort of thing that will be difficult to predict, but I'm definitely no virologist :)
 

Neen Sollars

Member
Joined
21 Jul 2018
Messages
326
Yes I think so, they were one of the last businesses to close.

With all this talk of “immunity passports” what happens to the unfortunates that fail to produce the specified antibody level? Just wondering... :s

You have the various strategies outlined above. I am thinking the Friday May bank holiday known as VE Day on 7th May would be a good time to announce details of the exit strategy, VC Day. Over 70`s and vulnerable with health issues continue to self isolate. The rest I think pending a vaccine they either have to take their chances and get on with life or hope they can continue to self isolate without losing their jobs. Very difficult time for them.
 

S-Bahn

Member
Joined
2 Nov 2018
Messages
263
My view is :-

Some restrictions will be eased by June as they can't keep the economy closed down.
it will be a constant state of lifting and reimposing restrictions as deaths rise and fall.
Viable anti-viral drugs (possibly Remdesivir - a drug that was initially developed to fight Ebola and was seen as effective on other corona-viruses and is now being trialled on COVID-19 patients) will appear before the vaccine does.
There won't be a return to normal until sufficient vaccinations have taken place - late 2021

Even then "normal" is likely to be something quite different.
 

Qwerty133

Established Member
Joined
7 Oct 2012
Messages
2,455
Location
Leicester/Sheffield
There is no clear exit strategy to the COVID-19 lockdown yet, but at some point, some restrictions are going to have to be lifted in the short to medium term to avoid long-lasting damage to our economy. There's been suggestions of schools reopening before the summer holidays and some non-essential retailers opening in the next few weeks, but there is no definite timescale for these so it leaves the door open to personal interpretation really, when do you think these restrictions will be lifted?

From my point of view, this is what I think will happen:

Exit strategy phase 1: (once new cases start to drop below 1,000 per day)
  • Non-essential retailers including hairdressers and clothes shops can reopen if they limit the maximum numbers of customers in store at once to 15 (5 in smaller shops).
  • Retailers adjacent to each other may be ordered to open on alternating different days to prevent an influx of customers queuing outside.
  • Schools reopen to all pupils, but with different year groups in on different days of the week. Attendance will not be compulsory if students are in a high-risk category or have a key worker job to go to. Cancelled summer exams will not be reinstated.
  • Citizens will be additionally be allowed to leave the house to buy non-essential goods, but only once per day and preferably at the same time as essential shopping and exercise.

The only way hairdressers will open at an early stage is if the country manages to obtain enough PPE that there is enough for such environments to use it without the risk of the NHS running out, and even then there are others in greater need so unfortunately I can't see them opening very early. There is also no reason to have a blanket restriction of 15 in shops when some shops could quite easily maintain social distancing with many multiples of this inside.
Exit strategy phase 2: (once new cases drop below 100 per day)
  • Lockdown to end for citizens not at high-risk or living with anyone in that category.
  • Food outlets can reopen, but for takeaway and home delivery only.
  • Sunbathing and having picnics in parks close to home will be allowed, but police patrols will be increased to ensure people are still observing social distancing rules.
  • Some low-key sports matches can resume behind closed doors.
Food outlets offering takeaway and home delivery are already allowed to be open and there is no reason to believe that getting a take away Mcdonalds is any more dangerous than buying a new outfit so it would be illogical to expect Mcdonalds to remain closed longer than Topshop.
Exit strategy phase 3: (once an antibody test has been rolled out)
  • All citizens who have had the antibody test and proven they are immune will be given an immunity certificate.
  • Entertainment venues including pubs, gyms, clubs and cinemas can reopen if they only let in people who have and show proof of an immunity certificate.
  • Anyone wishing to travel abroad must have an immunity certificate before doing so. Non-British nationals arriving in the UK must take the antibody test upon arrival or be refused entry.
  • Lockdown will still apply to elderly and vulnerable citizens without an immunity certificate.
I doubt I would be alone in actively attempting to get the virus if those who have had it could resume something resembling normal life while everyone else have to remain in lock down. The idea of immunity certificates sounds good in theory but would be disastrous for many in practice, especially for those in my age group where some would be left behind in terms of career prospects etc.
Exit strategy phase 4: (once a vaccine has been rolled out and is successful)
  • Nobody will be allowed to leave the UK unless they have an immunity certificate or vaccine.
  • Elderly and vulnerable will no longer need to shield.
  • End to limits on how many people can be in a shop/venue at once.
  • Work from home guidance relaxed.
It's not our problem to decide the requirements for those leaving the country although requiring proof of immunity for those arriving at that point would make sense. If people are still working from home by this point it is likely that many would have no interest in returning to the office and it will be necessary to change the guidance in such a way that allows those who wish to remain working from home to do so where they have proven to be able to do so effectively.
Exit strategy phase 5: (once half the British population have had the vaccine or developed immunity)
  • All social distancing guidance lifted
  • Travel restrictions lifted.
  • Nightingale hospitals to be reverted back to conference/entertainment venues.
  • Massive 21st century Festival of Britain to take place.
There is no point in having a distinction between the vaccine being developed and being deployed to half the population as this should happen in a matter of weeks at the most so it would be logical to retain the previous level of restrictions until the vaccine has been widely distributed.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 

Domh245

Established Member
Joined
6 Apr 2013
Messages
8,426
Location
nowhere
I doubt I would be alone in actively attempting to get the virus if those who have had it could resume something resembling normal life while everyone else have to remain in lock down. The idea of immunity certificates sounds good in theory but would be disastrous for many in practice, especially for those in my age group where some would be left behind in terms of career prospects etc.

Agreed, I'd be quite keen to catch the virus if I've managed to avoid it thus far if it means being able to return to some sense of normality. The risk then is that I (and the many others with a similar idea) develop severe symptoms and have to be hospitalised, overwhelming the system. For all the (sensible) talk about the exit strategy being targeted and phased, there will have to be a degree of all-or-nothing about it - you can't expect people to sit by and wait for the development of the vaccine or herd immunity whilst the small number of people who've had it and are immune resume normality.

If people are still working from home by this point it is likely that many would have no interest in returning to the office and it will be necessary to change the guidance in such a way that allows those who wish to remain working from home to do so where they have proven to be able to do so effectively.

I'm not sure that needs Government guidance to be honest - as the lockdown lifts and it reaches the point that working from home isn't necessary, it's up to employers & employees to then to decide if they still want people to come into the office, not government!
 

Mogster

Member
Joined
25 Sep 2018
Messages
906
There’s a paywall article in the Torygraph today suggesting schools should re-open on time after Easter, with non essential business then entertainment soon after such as restaurants and theaters where distancing can be applied. That would take us back to a point where Sweden still are now. It suggests the Swedish model was in the official UK preparedness plan before all this kicked off and the government reacted to the Imperial College paper of doom. Of course we’ll never know the results of a distancing only strategy for the UK.

Germany, Austria and Denmark seem to be planning on easing restrictions soon. Social problems are rumoured to be starting in Southern Italy with people having run out of all money, it seems they will have to ease the lockdown soon also or run into mass social unrest. Then there are the concerns about access to treatment for non Coronavirus health problems being compromised.

It’ll be interesting to see how it works out and when we follow. I’m glad I’m not making these decisions...
 

Jonny

Established Member
Joined
10 Feb 2011
Messages
2,562
I would be very aggrieved if I was subject to restrictions for not having had a vaccine... just saying. I hope OP's plan is pure speculation. When it comes to my own country, it would be judicial review time if they tried to force vaccinations.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,047
Location
Taunton or Kent
Exit strategy phase 3: (once an antibody test has been rolled out)
  • All citizens who have had the antibody test and proven they are immune will be given an immunity certificate.
  • Entertainment venues including pubs, gyms, clubs and cinemas can reopen if they only let in people who have and show proof of an immunity certificate.
  • Anyone wishing to travel abroad must have an immunity certificate before doing so. Non-British nationals arriving in the UK must take the antibody test upon arrival or be refused entry.
  • Lockdown will still apply to elderly and vulnerable citizens without an immunity certificate.
Exit strategy phase 4: (once a vaccine has been rolled out and is successful)
  • Nobody will be allowed to leave the UK unless they have an immunity certificate or vaccine.
  • Elderly and vulnerable will no longer need to shield.
  • End to limits on how many people can be in a shop/venue at once.
  • Work from home guidance relaxed.

If there is successful widespread deployment of an antiviral drug or other drug treatment, that passed all trial stages, I'd like to think we could progress to either of or a compromise of these two stages. All the events that have been postponed to the Autumn this year might have to be postponed again if no drug treatment is in place, as an effective vaccine is almost certainly not going to be ready for then.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,901
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I couldn't , I did it once and looked like an egg.

I thought I'd look awful bald, but actually I don't. Makes me a bit less scared of the idea of losing my hair, though family history would suggest it's unlikely to happen. Never really had my hair really long, though, it causes me to overheat in warm weather or when exercising.
 

hooverboy

On Moderation
Joined
12 Oct 2017
Messages
1,372
I would be very aggrieved if I was subject to restrictions for not having had a vaccine... just saying. I hope OP's plan is pure speculation. When it comes to my own country, it would be judicial review time if they tried to force vaccinations.
I think proof of vaccine/immunity certificates will likely be required for international travel,if and when such travel is permitted

As for domestic lockdown restrictions lifting,It will definitely be done in stages.I don't think age or geography will be factors,as the message needs to be seen as applicable to all for ease of understanding,and potential enforcement requirements.
virus trajectory perfitting, it is pretty much a given that restictions will stay until the end of the month, potentially 7th May.Hopefully by then you will get some easing .
I wouldn't expect big gatherings,clubs,festivals or the like to be given the nod for a good while yet,perhaps until summer.Pubs I think will also take longer to come back online than most anticipate, but outside cafe's and restaurants would probably open but with social distancing restictions, inside cafes would have to limit the numbers inside
It will certainly be a phased easing.The last thing the government will do is just issue a blanket "all ok, back to normal now" off the hoof.It would trigger the biggest party(to use expletive-free definition) in history!
 
Last edited:

Meerkat

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2018
Messages
7,546
The possible problem that you miss is that even if non-essential retailers can open, hardly anyone is going to be buying anything. That is the vicious circle of how this situation becomes a depression.
Why would hardly anyone buy anything?
The only way hairdressers will open at an early stage is if the country manages to obtain enough PPE that there is enough for such environments to use it without the risk of the NHS running out, and even then there are others in greater need so unfortunately I can't see them opening very early.
I think hairdressers will open earlier than expected - I understand the risk, and they might have to do appointment only, but people will get disproportionately annoyed if they can’t get their hair cut for months
Food outlets offering takeaway and home delivery are already allowed to be open and there is no reason to believe that getting a take away Mcdonalds is any more dangerous than buying a new outfit so it would be illogical to expect Mcdonalds to remain closed longer than Topshop.
The problem is the kitchens, possibly relieved if huge scale testing was available and massive supplies of PPE.
 

hooverboy

On Moderation
Joined
12 Oct 2017
Messages
1,372
Germany, Austria and Denmark seem to be planning on easing restrictions soon. Social problems are rumoured to be starting in Southern Italy with people having run out of all money, it seems they will have to ease the lockdown soon also or run into mass social unrest. Then there are the concerns about access to treatment for non Coronavirus health problems being compromised.

It’ll be interesting to see how it works out and when we follow. I’m glad I’m not making these decisions...
I'm sure the government are accutely aware of this and wish to avoid overdoing the lockdown
 

hooverboy

On Moderation
Joined
12 Oct 2017
Messages
1,372
Why would hardly anyone buy anything?

I think hairdressers will open earlier than expected - I understand the risk, and they might have to do appointment only, but people will get disproportionately annoyed if they can’t get their hair cut for months

The problem is the kitchens, possibly relieved if huge scale testing was available and massive supplies of PPE.
mcdonalds etc would probably re-open initially as a purely drive-through service,perhaps a limited "click and collect" counter service too
 

Meerkat

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2018
Messages
7,546
mcdonalds etc would probably re-open initially as a purely drive-through service,perhaps a limited "click and collect" counter service too
That doesn’t solve the distancing in the kitchen issue
 

hooverboy

On Moderation
Joined
12 Oct 2017
Messages
1,372
That doesn’t solve the distancing in the kitchen issue
the staff would probably have to work "conveyor-belt" style, one employee assigned to each food/drink station.
If you look at how they presently work most of the food preppers are doing this already, but the counter staff are flying around,getting under each others feet taking orders,putting on,or taking fries,and pouring drinks....that area would need to be more disciplined.
kitchens are confined spaces at the best of times,so it's always a H&S priority to keep unnecessary movements to a minimum,especially with hot/sharp objects.
 

Meerkat

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2018
Messages
7,546
Hairdressers might have to work outdoors!

Something to think about....
We keep mentioning keeping below NHS capacity but at some point soon we will have to reduce that capacity markedly so the staff can take a holiday - they simply can’t keep working at this intensity under this kind of mental stress
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
7,047
Location
Taunton or Kent
Hairdressers might have to work outdoors!

Something to think about....
We keep mentioning keeping below NHS capacity but at some point soon we will have to reduce that capacity markedly so the staff can take a holiday - they simply can’t keep working at this intensity under this kind of mental stress
Would the return of a number of retired staff and bringing medical students to the front line not provide some of that holiday capacity?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top