First Group: General Discussion

[overthewater]

Draft Question, why is the debt growing? is it all down to interest?

 

[winston270twm]

Draft Question, why is the debt growing? is it all down to interest?

No, loss of Rail Franchises & cash outflows

 

[THarris123]

My list of current nonDDA vehicles (that need to go in the next month) in each area is:-
Area Singles Bendies
Aberdeen 34 12
AirCoach 0 0
Berkshire 5 0
Bristol/Somerset 52 3
Cymru 7 0
Devon & Cornwall 30 0
Edinburgh 50 0
First East England 39 0
First Midlands 0 0
Glasgow 43 0
Hampshire 31 0
Manchester 60 1
PMT 24 0
South Yorkshire 26 0
W/Yorkshire 54 3

Note this includes 63 Y Reg single vehicles which should be all DDA compliant (10 SY, 2 Bristol, 11 WY and 2 for D&C all known), so the above not completely right to begin with.

Can someone correctly confirm the numbers for Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow. The rest should be up to date.

Strange how the total single deck figure was at 815 in about Februaryish and now 455. There's still a lot to go though in one month. Will they do it?

 

[Volvodart]

Aberdeen has only 14 singles and 13 artics which are non DDA to replace plus 3 loan singles which will not need replacing.

 

[THarris123]

Aberdeen has only 14 singles and 13 artics which are non DDA to replace plus 3 loan singles which will not need replacing.

Most of my figure is made up of the Y regs - sorry. I know the ALX300s should be non-DDA, but what of the X reg B10s are DDA?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

My list of current nonDDA vehicles (that need to go in the next month) in each area is:-
Area Singles Bendies
Aberdeen 34 12
AirCoach 0 0
Berkshire 5 0
Bristol/Somerset 52 3
Cymru 7 0
Devon & Cornwall 30 0
Edinburgh 50 0
First East England 39 0
First Midlands 0 0
Glasgow 43 0
Hampshire 31 0
Manchester 60 1
PMT 24 0
South Yorkshire 26 0
W/Yorkshire 54 3

Note this includes 63 Y Reg single vehicles which should be all DDA compliant (10 SY, 2 Bristol, 11 WY and 2 for D&C all known), so the above not completely right to begin with.

Can someone correctly confirm the numbers for Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow. The rest should be up to date.

Strange how the total single deck figure was at 815 in about Februaryish and now 455. There's still a lot to go though in one month. Will they do it?

Have you just looked at what is X reg or older? The 3 bendies at Bath are W reg but have had DDA mods so they are compliant.

There are a number of B10BLEs that are X reg and have been recertified, certainly in Somerset. More curiously, Cymru have just repainted a couple of W and X reg Marshall Darts so I'd guess that they've had mods too.

There is a certain amount of duff info in places like UK Buses too.

 

[Surreyman]

My list of current nonDDA vehicles (that need to go in the next month) in each area is:-
Area Singles Bendies
Aberdeen 34 12
AirCoach 0 0
Berkshire 5 0
Bristol/Somerset 52 3
Cymru 7 0
Devon & Cornwall 30 0
Edinburgh 50 0
First East England 39 0
First Midlands 0 0
Glasgow 43 0
Hampshire 31 0
Manchester 60 1
PMT 24 0
South Yorkshire 26 0
W/Yorkshire 54 3

Note this includes 63 Y Reg single vehicles which should be all DDA compliant (10 SY, 2 Bristol, 11 WY and 2 for D&C all known), so the above not completely right to begin with.

Can someone correctly confirm the numbers for Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow. The rest should be up to date.

Strange how the total single deck figure was at 815 in about Februaryish and now 455. There's still a lot to go though in one month. Will they do it?

Presumably a few 'X' reg vehicles are DDA compliant if registered after 01/01/2001?
We know that a number of pre 2001 B10BLEs have been upgraded(Maybe some Scania too??) Does anyone have any accurate figures on how many
pre 2001 Single Decks have been made compliant?

 

[THarris123]

Looking at it, from my figures, there are still 209 new vehicles left to take service (obviously most of that is Scotland, where most new vehicles have taken service, but I haven't updated my list). There should be at the moment, taking into account the Y regs and the new vehicles to take service, about 50 non-DDA compliant singles left still in service at the deadline.

And Yes GW - I have just basically taken anything X reg or older, exactly because there are so many inaccurate sites. I don't tend to use UK buses much, as most of their stuff is out of date or completely wrong, it's mostly other enthusiast sites. There should be (I'm hoping) quite a lot of X and W reg stuff which has been modified, but I don't know exactly (apart from the ones in Taunton/Bridgwater). My figure also includes Manchesters W reg Citaros, which I believe are DDA compliant (?)

The number of vehicles with before W reg are still (up to and including V reg) 179 (176 singles/3 bendies).

 

[Volvodart]

Aberdeen were receiving new buses when Dda started and all new singles delivered in January 2001 and after were Dda compliant. There were some stored buses built in early to mid 2000 that entered service then that were not, but they got pre registered in November 2000.

 

[the101]

My list of current nonDDA vehicles (that need to go in the next month) in each area is:-

Your figures look a bit high to me; Potteries is down to around 18 non-DDA single-deckers to shift before the end of the year. On the topic of Y-registered saloons, the three or four of them with Potteries (Scania L94/Wright) are/were not compliant and in fact none may still be in service.

But even if your figures are a little top-heavy that is still a horrendous number to replace over the next six-and-a-half weeks. First must either have a contingency plan involving double-deckers or will blow the deadline. Certainly if what you post is remotely correct, there is no way they are going to satisfy the regulations with those totals. Wrightbus (at least) will be on Christmas shutdown in around a month's time.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Your figures look a bit high to me; Potteries is down to around 18 non-DDA single-deckers to shift before the end of the year. On the topic of Y-registered saloons, the three or four of them with Potteries (Scania L94/Wright) are/were not compliant and in fact none may still be in service.

But even if your figures are a little top-heavy that is still a horrendous number to replace over the next six-and-a-half weeks. First must either have a contingency plan involving double-deckers or will blow the deadline. Certainly if what you post is remotely correct, there is no way they are going to satisfy the regulations with those totals. Wrightbus (at least) will be on Christmas shutdown in around a month's time.

I think there's quite of a time lag so quite a number of vehicles are still in service as new fleet enters service and things settle down.

South Yorkshire is actually 15 (according to the SOES) and even that's artificially high as some have been retained just in case, and will be wiped out by the new X78 vehicles which are arriving now. West Yorkshire does look like 50 outstanding though.

However, remember two things. Some of these may be used on closed contracts (e.g. schools, workers) so aren't affected. Also, the ability to obtain DDA compliance is relatively straight forward for certain designs; Arriva have just done that in the north east with a limited number of Wright Cadet SB120s.

 

[KendalKing]

My list of current nonDDA vehicles (that need to go in the next month) in each area is:-
Area Singles Bendies
Aberdeen 34 12
AirCoach 0 0
Berkshire 5 0
Bristol/Somerset 52 3
Cymru 7 0
Devon & Cornwall 30 0
Edinburgh 50 0
First East England 39 0
First Midlands 0 0
Glasgow 43 0
Hampshire 31 0
Manchester 60 1
PMT 24 0
South Yorkshire 26 0
W/Yorkshire 54 3

Note this includes 63 Y Reg single vehicles which should be all DDA compliant (10 SY, 2 Bristol, 11 WY and 2 for D&C all known), so the above not completely right to begin with.

Can someone correctly confirm the numbers for Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow. The rest should be up to date.

Strange how the total single deck figure was at 815 in about Februaryish and now 455. There's still a lot to go though in one month. Will they do it?

Most of the W, X, & Y registered buses in the Manchester fleet, are DDA complaint.

 

[winston270twm]

Most of the W, X, & Y registered buses in the Manchester fleet, are DDA complaint.

The W-reg Citaro's at Manchester weren't DDA from new, but they have since visited FSY Rotherham refurb unit to be brought up to DDA spec & recertified

 

[90sWereBetter]

There's still a fair few Scanias and non-compliant B10BLEs running around Essex, although there's supposed to be a batch of Streetlite Max replacing the former at Colchester, no idea what's going on with regard to that. In Norfolk/Suffolk, it's just a single Dart, which will go when the Darts from Bath arrive.

EDIT: Speak of the devil, there are pictures of the new Streetlites in service in Colchester after all. :P

 

[THarris123]

I think there's quite of a time lag so quite a number of vehicles are still in service as new fleet enters service and things settle down.

South Yorkshire is actually 15 (according to the SOES) and even that's artificially high as some have been retained just in case, and will be wiped out by the new X78 vehicles which are arriving now. West Yorkshire does look like 50 outstanding though.

However, remember two things. Some of these may be used on closed contracts (e.g. schools, workers) so aren't affected. Also, the ability to obtain DDA compliance is relatively straight forward for certain designs; Arriva have just done that in the north east with a limited number of Wright Cadet SB120s.

As I say my figure includes 10 Y reg vehicles for First South Yorkshire, which brings it down to 16.

 

[oldman]

Skimming the latest presentation to the city, I see that they are being moderately confident about reaching the 10% margin on UK Bus soon:

if things went extremely well we would get within a gnat’s whisker of the 10% or even possibly get to the 10% [in 2016/17]

Apparently they have not yet got the full benefit of recent fuel price reductions.

 

[Volvodart]

Plus the benefit of the hit this financial year from depot rationalisation increasing profits in future years and the ongoing cost efficiencies.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

As I say my figure includes 10 Y reg vehicles for First South Yorkshire, which brings it down to 16.

Yes but as I said, even this is artificially high as they've retained some B10BLEs to cover the inflow of new X78 vehicles etc. To be fair, they're just about there and there are 5 x B6LEs spare (of the same batch as those in BoS) that will doubtless find a home somewhere.

 

[Goldfish62]

My list of current nonDDA vehicles (that need to go in the next month) in each area is:-
Area Singles Bendies
Aberdeen 34 12
AirCoach 0 0
Berkshire 5 0
Bristol/Somerset 52 3
Cymru 7 0
Devon & Cornwall 30 0
Edinburgh 50 0
First East England 39 0
First Midlands 0 0
Glasgow 43 0
Hampshire 31 0
Manchester 60 1
PMT 24 0
South Yorkshire 26 0
W/Yorkshire 54 3

Note this includes 63 Y Reg single vehicles which should be all DDA compliant (10 SY, 2 Bristol, 11 WY and 2 for D&C all known), so the above not completely right to begin with.

Can someone correctly confirm the numbers for Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow. The rest should be up to date.

Strange how the total single deck figure was at 815 in about Februaryish and now 455. There's still a lot to go though in one month. Will they do it?

The "Devon" and Cornwall number looks a bit high time me. Have you included the now non-existent Devon fleet?

 

[THarris123]

The "Devon" and Cornwall number looks a bit high time me. Have you included the now non-existent Devon fleet?

If it included the non existent Devon fleet, the figure would be about 90 odd. I haven't updated that within a month and it isn't really reliable. Can anyone confirm the correct number?

 

[winston270twm]

Plus the benefit of the hit this financial year from depot rationalisation increasing profits in future years and the ongoing cost efficiencies.

The depot rationalisation only affected smaller depots / small First operations, can't see those having much of a noticeable impact

 

[Volvodart]

They said that about £3 million of losses had been eliminated so if you compare next year to this the difference will be £10 million.

 

[winston270twm]

They said that about £3 million of losses had been eliminated so if you compare next year to this the difference will be £10 million.

£10 million is neither here nor there to a company the size of First Group, it will not improve UK bus margins significantly from the current 3.6%

The figures next year 'should' only improve by +£3 million as a result stripping those losses from out of UK bus, the £7 million hit this is one off closure costs.

 

[Volvodart]

It is over 1% of the 10% they are wanting to get to by 2016/7.

 

[winston270twm]

It is over 1% of the 10% they are wanting to get to by 2016/7.

Maybe so, but margin's will still be under 5% even with that savings benefit. On that rate of margin growth, it will still be financial year 2021/22 at the earliest before the double digit margin target could be achieved / if it ever happens.

They've already had two years of turnaround plan at UK bus since the right issue, and they are still only here now.

 

[CD]

If it included the non existent Devon fleet, the figure would be about 90 odd. I haven't updated that within a month and it isn't really reliable. Can anyone confirm the correct number?

You must remember it is not only accessibility to conform to the 1/1/16 deadline.
In Yeovil are 3 Solos 53109-11 that although pass the accessibility test, are not fitted with side destination screens or rear route number boxes.
These too are requirements of DDA for saloons.
Around the First empire there must be many more that do not comply.

 

[WatcherZero]

Going back to sales they have twice targetted £100m of disposals in the following year and both times come up well short (achieving a quarter of the target?). Problem is no one would want to buy a hopelessly loss making division and thers only so many operations with moderately sucessful margins that you can get a decent return from selling. I too think there wont be any more small disposals it would have to be a couple of crown jewels sold if they wanted to raise any significant amount. If liquidity falls further and they run out of the money they raised from the rights issue you may well see a rash of further closures. Their bonds also start maturing in 2018 which would require an average of £300m per year of debt refinancing in each if the following five years.

 

[Goldfish62]

You must remember it is not only accessibility to conform to the 1/1/16 deadline.
In Yeovil are 3 Solos 53109-11 that although pass the accessibility test, are not fitted with side destination screens or rear route number boxes.
These too are requirements of DDA for saloons.
Around the First empire there must be many more that do not comply.

Ah right, thanks for the clarification. Actually, I don't know how First have got away with it until now. These vehicles are not compliant with the accessibility certificate they would have Issued with from new and should have failed their annual tests the first time they were presented for test without the screens.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Going back to sales they have twice targetted £100m of disposals in the following year and both times come up well short (achieving a quarter of the target?). Problem is no one would want to buy a hopelessly loss making division and thers only so many operations with moderately sucessful margins that you can get a decent return from selling. I too think there wont be any more small disposals it would have to be a couple of crown jewels sold if they wanted to raise any significant amount. If liquidity falls further and they run out of the money they raised from the rights issue you may well see a rash of further closures. Their bonds also start maturing in 2018 which would require an average of £300m per year of debt refinancing in each if the following five years.

Are you including the first set of disposals in 2012/3 when they disposed of various operations including London? That was fairly close to the £100m?

To be honest, a bit of shuffling on UK Bus is not going to make a real material impact on the debt. It would require a major divestment (such as Greyhound); UK bus should be able to make double digit returns and have some growth potential which they won't get in North America.

You may see some smaller Hereford style closures, and whilst I may be wrong, I don't see larger divestments any time soon in UK Bus.

 

[winston270twm]

Are you including the first set of disposals in 2012/3 when they disposed of various operations including London? That was fairly close to the £100m?

To be honest, a bit of shuffling on UK Bus is not going to make a real material impact on the debt. It would require a major divestment (such as Greyhound); UK bus should be able to make double digit returns and have some growth potential which they won't get in North America.

You may see some smaller Hereford style closures, and whilst I may be wrong, I don't see larger divestments any time soon in UK Bus.

TGW,

Totally agree, in my mind they should have never sold off London in the first place, which has resulted in the loss of midlife cascades within.

UK Bus, Transit & Student should all remain intact, I think Greyhound (being non core) should be sacrificed to get debt down & speed up the turnaround plan within UK bus & achieve double digit margins.