I’ve calculated the PVR as 62, there is also stuff like the Eden park and ride on top, assuming that still runs?
Is probably suggest a higher spares ratio than 10% considering some services have a bespoke requirement (I.e Mousehole that seems to have 66% spares ratio at the moment)
I’d come to broadly the same sort of idea as you, just with the old solo and a couple of older E200s adding as well
The issue with the M6 is that although four Sprinters should cover based on PVR + 1 spare, First don't seem to be able to get on with them, hence retaining one Solo which should have gone. However, that's 20 years old and is not going to last forever!
The Sprinters seem to be able to run fine for a few weeks then all go wrong at the same time!
Has this not happened to First in Cornwall before when Western Greyhound was winning many of the contracts? Makes me think First can survive with Truronian, Flixbus, Truro P&R, and the commercial network. I’m not doubting there will need to be depot closures and PVR reductions though!
Even in the days of Western Greyhound being at the top of its game I don't recall First being in this much trouble. Back then they still had at least as much local bus work, plus schools and the Truro College work.
I tend to agree though that they'll hang on. Such is the volatility of bus operators in Cornwall maybe they will even turn it around again, as difficult as it is to see it right now.